When discussing BYU for the 2009 season during many summer editions of the Power Hours on VI Radio, I never once called for the Cougars to beat Oklahoma outright. However, on a number of occasions, I stated that if Bronco Mendenhall’s team could find a way to pull a shocker against OU at Cowboys Stadium, just like Mountain West rep TCU did in Norman in 2005, then BYU would have a legitimate shot at the BCS Championship Game this year.
Now certainly, the Cougars still have a long way to go and will need a bunch of help. And obviously, we all know they won’t get invited to Pasadena ahead of other potentially unbeaten teams like Florida, Texas and/or USC, and we know they still have to navigate their 12-game slate unscathed.
But if things unfold as they did two years ago, when a twice-beaten LSU squad won it all, then BYU will very much be in business. And that’s because for “mid-major” standards, Mendenhall put together the ideal schedule.
For starters, BYU put itself in an opening game where it could immediately grasp the nation’s attention. Consider that done after the Cougars beat Oklahoma 14-13 Saturday as a 23-point underdog.
Furthermore, the school best known for its success under Lavell Edwards, who developed some of the NCAA’s best all-time QBs like Steve Young, Jim McMahon, Robbie Bosco, Ty Detmer and Steve Sarkisian, has another high-profile opponent lined up. Florida St. and legendary head coach Bobby Bowden will come to Provo in Week 3.
With that in mind, we know that BYU fans are rooting hard for Oklahoma and FSU to play well in 2009. And of course, the Cougars still must deal with TCU and Utah, both of whom have been perennial top-25 programs the last few years. Also, we saw Colorado St. look strong in Week 1, winning 23-17 at Colorado as a double-digit underdog in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated.
Best of all, the Seminoles, Rams, Horned Frogs and Utes all have to come to the altitude of Provo, where Mendenhall has posted a 21-3 straight-up record during his four years at BYU. Again, the Cougars will need help -- and lots of it -- but as long as they stay undefeated, there’s no doubting the legitimacy of their national-title hopes in 2009.
Those aspirations are a reach for Boise St. because it doesn’t play another BCS school the rest of the season, but that won’t prevent us from expecting the Broncos to get into a BCS game like they did in 2006. BSU dominated Oregon on Thursday night, winning a 19-8 decision as three-point home favorites on the smurf turf.
Chris Petersen’s team didn’t even allow a first down by the Ducks until the third quarter. QB Kellen Moore showed no signs of a potential sophomore slump, completing 19-of-29 attempts for 197 passing yards without an interception. The Broncos should be favored in every game they have left, but mark Oct. 14 on your calendar because that’s when Boise goes to Tulsa for a Wednesday night showdown on ESPN.
Alabama opened its season at the Georgia Dome for a second straight year but unlike the seal clubbing it gave Clemson, it got all it wanted from Va. Tech this time around. The Crimson Tide captured a 34-24 win over the Hokies as a six-point favorite.
Nick Saban’s team out-yarded Va. Tech 498-155, but Beamer Ball had the Hokies in the lead both at halftime and early in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, ‘Bama made all the plays at crunch time and pulled out the spread cover.
Coming into the season, Alabama had two main concerns: An offensive line filling a few holes, particularly the loss of All-American OT Andre Smith, and the lack of playing experience for junior quarterback Greg McElroy. With Mark Ingram rushing for a workmanlike 150 yards and Roy Upchurch gaining 90 yards on the ground, the o-line is off to a nice start.
As for McElroy, he clearly has the toughness and composure to lead the Tide back to the Georgia Dome in early December. Under adverse conditions before a raucous environment in his first career start, McElroy stepped up and made plays when it mattered. He finished the night with 230 yards passing and his lone mistake was a first-half interception on a ball tipped at the line of scrimmage.
Oklahoma State has to feel good about its improved defensive play after it won a 24-10 decision over Georgia as a five-point home favorite. The Cowboys didn’t light up the scoreboard, netting just 304 total yards, but Zac Robinson found Dez Bryant for a pair of TD hook-ups.
The Dawgs couldn’t overcome costly turnovers, not to mention an extremely questionable call that proved to be crucial early in the final stanza. They also lost stud offensive tackle Trinton Sturdivant for the season – again – when he tore his ACL.
Mark Richt’s team can’t lick its wounds for long because a physical South Carolina team will come calling Saturday. As of early Monday night, most betting shops had Georgia listed as a seven-point ‘chalk.’
Steve Spurrier teams are 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread at Sanford Stadium. The Gamecocks looked ferocious on defense in a 7-3 win Thursday at North Carolina State. On the other hand, Spurrier’s offense looked anemic yet again.
The hot seats for Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis may have cooled somewhat – for now, that is – at both Michigan and Notre Dame, respectively, after both schools looked impressive and easily cashed tickets in Week 1 wins. The Wolverines jumped all over Western Michigan early and cruised to a 31-7 win as 14-point home favorites at The Big House.
The Irish pounded Nevada by a 35-0 count, making some pundits (such as me, who touted the Wolf Pack in this contest for most of the summer) look downright stupid as they dominated as 14-point favorites. Jimmy Clausen enjoyed a career performance, connecting on 15-of-18 passes for 314 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.
California lost 35-27 at Maryland in 2008 and Jeff Tedford’s bunch was revenge-minded going into its opener against the Terrapins. The Bears wasted no time in quickly disposing of Ralph Friedgen’s squad. They dumped the Terps 52-13 as expensive 21-point home favorites and in the wake for Oregon’s dud at Boise, clearly established themselves as the team most likely to give USC a run for the Pac-10 title.
LSU wasn’t impressive in a 31-23 win at Washington, failing to cover the number as an 18 ½-point road favorite. Jake Locker’s nine-yard touchdown pass with three seconds left allowed ‘over’ backers (like me) to cash tickets on the 53-point tally.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--South Carolina lost LB Rodney Paulk to a season-ending injury when he tore his ACL in the first half against the Wolfpack.
--Arkansas WR London Crawford is out 4-6 weeks with a broken collarbone. Crawford, who had two receptions for 44 yards in the Hogs' 48-10 win over Missouri St., started 11 games in 2008.
--Vandy collected a 45-0 win over Western Carolina in a non-lined affair. The Commodores had not issued a bagel in a decade. The ‘Dores out-yarded the Catamounts, 620-115. Bobby Johnson played a pair of true freshmen at RB since senior Jared Hawkins still isn’t quite 100 percent. Zac Stacy ran for 133 yards and a touchdown, while Warren Norman went for 105 yards and a pair of TDs. QB Larry Smith was sharp in his second career start.
--If I’m Les Miles, I’m extremely concerned about my secondary. As of Monday night, LSU was a 14 ½-point home ‘chalk’ for Saturday’s SEC opener against Vandy.
--Another epic FSU-Miami game goes to the 'Canes by a 38-34 count. UM wins outright as a six-point underdog to hook up money-line backers with a plus-200 payout (risk $100 to win $200). It turned out to be irrelevant, but what the hell was going on with the clock keeper's multiple mistakes on the final possession and more importantly, why/how the hell did Miami not notice and bitch about it more? Unreal!
--Biggest Upsets:
1-BYU 14, Oklahoma 13
2-William & Mary 26, Virginia 14
3-North Texas 20, Ball St. 10
4-Colorado St. 23, Colorado 17
--Coaches on the Hot Seat:
1-Al Groh (UVA)
2-Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville)
3-Rich Rodriguez (Michigan)
4-Charlie Weis (Notre Dame)
5-Dan Hawkins (Colorado)
--Stock Down:
1-Illinois
2-Virginia
3-Iowa
4-Oklahoma
5-Ohio St.
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The ACC didn't start the 2009 season on a good note, evidenced by a 4-6 non-conference mark and that includes two losses to Championship Subdivision (1-AA) schools. On Thursday, the group hopes to gain some respect back when Georgia Tech (1-0) and Clemson (1-0) meet in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets cruised past Jacksonville State 37-17 in Week 1, racking up 497 yards on offense. The tandem of RB Jonathan Dwyer (74 yards, 2 TDs) and QB Josh Nesbitt (2 total TDs) both looked sharp in the win. Clemson was helped by a defensive and special team touchdown in its 37-14 victory over Middle Tennessee State last Saturday. The offense looked shaky behind freshman QB Kyle Parker (9-of-20, 159 yards, 2 TDs) last week but fortunately the defense racked up three sacks and three interceptions, including the aforementioned pick-six score. Possible look-ahead spot here for the Yellow Jackets, who will travel to Miami next week for their second straight battle on Thursday. The Yellow Jackets rallied for a 21-17 win against the Tigers last year in Death Valley as the school connected on a 24-yard touchdown pass from Josh Nesbitt with 5:22 left in the fourth quarter. The loss was the first for Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, who replaced Tiger coach Tommy Bowden the Monday before the game. Including last year's win, Georgia Tech has won four of five against Clemson. The 'under' has cashed in four straight between the two schools and the last two meetings in Atlanta saw a combined 16 and 19 points posted. G-Tech head coach Paul Johnson owns a 7-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread mark at home. The Yellow Jackets opened as 4 ½-point favorites and the number is fitting, considering 10 of the last 14 have been decided by five points or less.
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Two programs and two coaches on the so-called "hot seat" square off this Saturday, as Michigan welcomes Notre Dame. Some pundits were surprised the Fighting Irish were ranked 23rd in the preseason polls, especially after last year's 7-6 campaign. ND closed 2008 with a 49-21 rout over Hawaii and it opened this season with a 35-0 blowout over Nevada. Even though the competition hasn't been the greatest, QB Jimmy Clausen has completed 37-of-44 passes for 716 yards and nine scores in the two victories. The offense has looked good but the defense deserves some credit too. The shutout was the first for the Irish in seven years and it came against two opponents that have success lighting up the scoreboard. Michigan almost put up a bagel too in its opener, but had to settle for a dominating 31-7 home win over Western Michigan. Freshman QB Tate Forcier (179 yards, 3 TDs) looked sharp in his debut and helped the offense ring up 439 yards. The defense held the Broncos to 301 yards and intercepted future pro QB Tim Hiller twice en route to the win. Unfortunately, there haven't been a lot of close calls in this rivalry lately. Four of the last six have been double-digit blowouts, including Notre Dame's 35-17 home win over Michigan last year. Surprisingly, the Wolverines outgained (388-260) the Irish but were done in by six turnovers, including four fumbles. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this series. Notre Dame's last win in Ann Arbor came in 2005, when Brady Quinn quarterbacked the squad to a 17-10 triumph over the Wolverines. Michigan is catching points in this contest and while it's too early to gauge Rich Rodriguez yet, he did go 1-1 both SU and ATS as a home 'dog in 2008. Even though the Irish haven't been listed as road favorites often under head coach Charlie Weis, gamblers should be aware that ND is 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS as a road 'chalk' during his tenure. The 'over' has gone 3-0 in the last three played at South Bend, but the 'under' has prevailed to a 3-0 mark in the last three in the Big House.
Saturday - Southern California at Ohio State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes
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All eyes will be on Columbus this Saturday Night, as round two between the Buckeyes and Trojans takes place from the "Horseshoe." Most don't believe Ohio State has a shot to beat USC and after watching Jim Tressel's squad last week against Navy. The Buckeyes barely squeaked away with a 31-27 victory over the Midshipmen and while the offense (6 scores) was consistent, it was the defense that has concerns. The unit gave up 342 total yards, plus they allowed Navy to convert 8-of-12 third down conversions. The Navy triple-option attack is hard to prepare for, but OSU better shape up this week when it faces a USC attack that just rang up 342 yards on the ground in its 56-3 win over San Jose State last week. RB Joe McKnight led the charge with 145 yards and two scores, which helped take some pressure off freshman QB Matt Barkley (15-of-19, 233 yards, 1 TD). The Spartans' offense wasn't a true test for USC, but Pete Carroll's defense only gave up 121 total yards and they posted a 1-of-16 performance on third downs. USC opened up as a 6 ½-point road favorite, a role that Carroll (22-18 ATS) and his troops are very familiar with. Being a home underdog isn't something Ohio State is used too, especially under Tressel (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS). OSU owns a 55-8 record at home under JT and only two of those losses (12, 11) have come by double digits. The Buckeyes are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, which includes last year's 35-3 blowout loss to USC. The Trojans controlled the line of scrimmage and the turnover battle (3-1) as well. The only bright spot in the setback was the play of then freshman Terrelle Pryor, who went 7-of-9 for 52 yards and also racked up 40 yards on the ground. If there is a conference that USC owns, then it's the Big 10. The Trojans have won and covered nine straight, and all of the victories have come by double digits. If USC does capture the road win here, it does face a possible pitfall next week on the road against Washington and former Trojan coordinator Steve Sarkisian.
Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny
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The MAC went 3-9 in the first week of play, which included Central Michigan's 19-6 loss at Arizona. Considering the Chippewas are considered the class of the conference, they better step up against Michigan State. The Spartans helped the Big 10 go 10-1 last weekend and have a better defense than the Wildcats.
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Oklahoma State diced up Houston for 699 yards on offense en route to a 56-37 victory. The Cowboys posted a solid 24-10 win over then No. 13 Georgia last week and could be in for a let-down spot against an explosive Houston attack. The Cougars and QB Casey Keenum will at the very least test an OSU defense that is still suspect even after last week's effort against the undermanned Bulldogs.
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UCLA stunned Tennessee 27-24 in overtime last year in a game that they had no right to win. The Volunteers opened the Lane Kiffin era with a 63-point effort against Western Kentucky. Can they repeat that performance against the Bruins? Even though they played the Hilltoppers, the Vols' running duo of Montario Hardesty and freshman Bryce Brown has people in Knoxville smiling.
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The SEC has three conference games scheduled in Week 2, including this battle. This game could be a trap, considering South Carolina stole the public's money last Thursday in a 7-3 road victory against N.C. State. And, Georgia was humbled 24-10 to Okie State on Saturday. Total players looking for a play, might want to lean to the 'under' here, which is on an 8-0 run in this series.
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Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss are all ranked above LSU in the SEC, but the Tigers might be the last team standing at the end of the year. The Tigers open up conference play on Saturday against Vanderbilt, who turned a lot of heads last year with a 7-6 mark and bowl win. Will LSU's talent overwhelm the Commodores or are we looking at an early upset on the Bayou?
With only 12 chances to capture winning and losing streaks throughout the college season, it behooves the shrewd handicapper to identify as many emerging team trends (both good and bad) as early as possible. Which means trying to latch onto those inevitable winning and losing skeins from the beginning of the campaign. Admittedly, impressions from first-week action are sometimes deceiving...but sometimes they're not. With that in mind, following are some possible "go with" and "go against" situations we're watching closely.
Army (potential go-with)...It's a bit premature to overreact to reports that West Point might have hit the bulls-eye with new coaching hire Rich Ellerson. Then again, maybe it's not. Sources who watched Ellerson's Cal Poly teams punch above their weight were not surprised at how crisp the Black Knights of the Hudson looked in their opening-week win at Eastern Michigan. Army's option ran as efficiently as it did when Ellerson was an assistant at the academy in the '90s, with QB Trent Steelman efficiently piloting a ground attack that gobbled 300 YR in the 27-14 win vs. EMU. RBs Patrick Mealy and Kingsley Ehie (for what it's worth, Army is the only program we ever recall with more than one "Kingsley" on its al-time roster; remember Kingsley Fink, a QB for West Point in the early '70s?) combined for 179 YR as Ellerson became the first West Point HC to win his opener since Bob Sutton in 1991.
Buffalo (potential go-with)...We wonder if we're too late to the party regarding the Bulls, who surprisingly emerged last season as MAC champions for shrewd HC Turner Gill. But with QB Drew Willy graduated and top RB James Starks lost for the season with injury, few believed Buffalo could prick up where it left off a year ago. And maybe the Bulls won't get back to the MAC title game, but they looked good as ever last Saturday at the Sun Bowl vs. UTEP, out-executing the favored Miners en route to a 23-17 upset win. New starting QB Zach Maynard was efficient at the Sun Bowl, while RBs Brandon Thermilius & Mario Henry filled in admirably for Starks. Another winning season from the Bulls, and it will be even harder for the school to keep the impressive Gill in the fold.
Miami-Ohio (potential go-against)...The RedHawks really faded during the latter stages of Shane Montgomery's failed regime, sinking to non-competitive status by the time he was humanely dismissed following last season's 2-10 mess at Yager Stadium. And we're not sure new HC Mike Haywood is going to rock the "Cradle of Coaches" in the near future, either. The talent base eroded under Montgomery to the point Haywood inherited few impact performers on offense or defense. Moreover, beleaguered sr. Daniel Raudabaugh is the only experienced QB option Haywood has to lead the popgun attack. Some MAC sources have also openly questioned Haywood's desire to install a "smashmouth" offensive philosophy at Miami; although media sorts like to buy into that sort of b.s., more informed observers believe Haywood would be better served to implement a more creative and diverse attack similar to what Turner Gill has made work in Buffalo. Based upon results in the opener vs. Kentucky, Haywood doesn't have the sort of material to implement his style, and might be a couple of recruiting classes away from getting the RedHawks into position to contend again in the MAC.
New Mexico (potential go-against)...Say what you want about former HC Rocky Long, but at least his radical defensive schemes provided an identity for the Lobos, something New Mexico fans are wondering their team might lack under new HC Mike Locksley. More than a few MWC observers questioned Locksley's hiring, reckoning that he had virtually no experience west of the Mississippi River, and wondering if his recent accomplishments as the o.c. at Illinois were all that impressive. Locksley also didn't get off on the right foot in Albuquerque when getting hit with a harassment suit by a athletic department employee, then proceeded to gut the Long influence, bringing in a new d.c., Doug Mallory, who was effectively chased out of LSU last season and immediately junked Long's pet 3-3-5 for a more-traditional 4-3 look. All that "new" Mallory defense did was make Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson look like Colt McCoy as the Aggies rolled up 606 yards of offense in A&M's 41-6 opening night romp at College Station. Meanwhile, holdover QB Donovan Porterie looks an ill-fit for Locksley version of the spread, which was helped in Champaign-Urbana by Juice Willaims' escapability (of which the slow-footed Porterie, especially after knee problems, lacks).
New Mexico State (potential go-against)...Like Haywood at Miami-Ohio, new NMSU coach DeWayne Walker talked tough in the offseason, stressing the Aggies' new emphasis on a physical ground presence. WAC observers, however, are quick to remind that it's going to be difficult to recruit the sort of manpower to Las Cruces to make that style of offensive football work. Perhaps Walker's new, more-physical offense will eventually begin to dominate, but gaining just a tick over 3 ypc in the opener vs. Idaho's soft rush defense is an indicator of how far Walker's plan has to go before it works. By the way, NMSU lost to the Vandals, 21-6, hardly the sort of debut Aggie fans were expecting in Las Cruces.
North Texas (potential go-with)...The Mean Green has been down for so long that we hardly remember UNT's Sun Belt titles and New Orleans Bowl trips that were a regular occurrence earlier in the decade. But after a couple of desolate seasons under HC Todd Dodge (a former Texas Longhorn QB and HS coaching legend in the Metroplex at Southlake Carroll High) , UNT might be turning the corner now that HC Dodge's son Riley has emerged as the Mean Green's QB. The young Dodge, a decorated signal-caller for his dad at Carroll who shunned offers from Big XII schools to follow his papa to Denton, looked uncannily similar to another Southlake/Todd Dodge QB product, ex-Missouri and current Redskins QB Chase Daniel, in leading the Mean Green past Ball State in the opener. Riley Dodge effectively managed the game (something predecessor Giovanni Vizza couldn't do a year ago when running the UNT spread) and utilized an underrated pair of RBs in Cam Montgomery & Lance Dunbar to pace the win at Muncie. Moreover, young Dodge's ability to move the chains and clock will keep the UNT defense off the field longer than the past few seasons, when too many "3-and-outs" prevented the stop unit from getting necessary rest.
UAB (potential go-with)...Under the radar in Conference USA, the Blazers quietly covered their last three games of '08 and proceeded to pick up where they left off in the opener vs. Rice, rolling to a 44-24 win over the Owls at Legion Field. Dynamic QB Joe Webb could emerge as C-USA's most-dangerous weapon this season after passing for 221 yards and running for 194 more while accounting for 4 TDs in UAB's impressive win. Eighteen starters return from the '08 team that began to show some progress at the end of last season, and HC Neil Callaway has fortified the Blazer "D' with juco recruits. But it's the presence of the do-everything Webb that has us on a "UAB alert" this fall in C-USA.
Washington (potential go-with)...Pac-10 sources have long suspected that the Huskies were not as bad as they showed in recent campaigns under Ty Willingham, who admittedly coached in some bad luck when QB injuries effectively sabotaged each of his last three seasons in Seattle. Shrewd coast observers, however, also knew that Willingham was overrated and an ill-advised hire, and many believe there is no way that U-Dub would have gone winless last season had QB Jake Locker not been KO'd with a thumb injury in late September. With a healthy Locker and a new HC in Steve Sarkisian, a former BYU QB, Norm Chow/Pete Carroll disciple and Southern Cal offensive coordinator, things could begin to look up quickly in Seattle. An opening night competitive loss vs. visiting LSU indicates the Huskies won't be a pushover this season, and expect that long losing streak (now 15 games) to be put to the sword this week vs. Idaho.
Bad beats: College football's best Week 1 knockouts
By BEN BURNS - To be successful requires both hard work and passion
College football welcomed back bettors with a LaGarrett Blount right hand instead of a friendly handshake.
The opening week featured backdoor covers, favorites who forgot to score in the second half, a last-minute safety that affected a total and a meaningless touchdown on the game’s final play that hurt.
It left some of us feeling like Sam Bradford’s shoulder, and other more fortunate bettors with sheepish grins.
Here’s to bouncing back next week or keeping the good fortune coming.
Backdoor men: Favored by 41.5 over Louisiana-Monroe, Texas was in covering position, after a Garrett Gilbert 12-yard touchdown run put the Longhorns up 59-13 with seven minutes left.
But, aided by a Texas personal foul penalty, ULM mounted a nine-play, 69-yard drive, capped off by a Frank Goodin 13-yard touchdown run that slaughtered the hopes of Longhorn backers.
Shutting it down: That’s exactly what Penn State did in the second half against Akron.
After a dominating first half, the Nittany Lions were well on their way to covering a 29-point spread.
Penn State outgained the Zips 344-8 in the first half. PSU quarterback Darryl Clark completed 29 of 40 attempts and set a school record with 254 passing yards in the first half alone.
He hooked up with Graham Zug from 19 yards out for his third touchdown, which put the Nittany Lions up 31-0 at halftime.
But that was the last time Penn State would score, and Joe Paterno wasn’t any happier about it than bettors who took the Nittany Lions.
Paterno told reporters that many of his younger players "thought the thing was over at halftime."
"We just did not have any consistency in the second half. We didn't come off the football on either side of the ball, so I was disappointed," he said. "But we still won the football game."
Just not by enough.
Akron scored on a 40-yard touchdown in the third quarter and held on for a 31-7 cover.
Tricky Mormons: Trailing Utah 33-17 with 1:29 left, Utah State took over on its own six-yard line. Under 52 looked good.
Since it was still only a two-possession game, the visiting Aggies tried to start a drive from the shadows of their own goal line. Going 94 yards in a minute and a half seemed like a pipedream, though. What under bettors weren’t expecting was a safety, the second of the game. But that’s what they got, when Utah’s Nai Fotu sacked Utah State quarterback Diondre Borel in the end zone with 48 seconds left. It turned what looked like a for-sure under into a push.
Late-night lameness: How many of you played the total on the LSU-Washington game only because it was the last game on the card? It hurt you, if you took the under.
With six minutes to play, LSU led 24-13. The total was 52.5, so the under looked in good shape. Washington got a field goal with five minutes to play to get within eight. LSU responded with a six-play, 67-yard drive, capped by a six-yard touchdown pass from Jordan Jefferson to Brandon LaFell with 1:54 to play.
Now trailing 31-16, the Huskies were reduced to playing for pride, as they took over on their 18-yard line with 1:54 to play.
Washington pride inspired a long drive that ended with a nine-yard touchdown pass from Jake Locker to Kavario Middleton on the game’s final play. Final score: LSU 31, Washington 23.
NcaaF 9/8
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