The rivalry between the University of Miami and Florida State doesn't hold the same meaning as it did earlier in the decade, but the Canes and Noles usually provide very close games when they hook up. The venue shifts to Tallahassee this season, as Bobby Bowden's club goes for their second straight win over UM. Meanwhile, down in Coral Gables, there has plenty of drama with Randy Shannon's club recently.
The offseason has been interesting for both squads, as FSU was in the news for victories getting taken away due to the use of ineligible players. Despite the issue not resolved yet, it does affect Bowden's career win total, as he is battling it out with Penn State's Joe Paterno for the most career victories in college football.
The Hurricanes lost three quarterbacks over the last eight months, as last season's co-starter Robert Marve transferred to Purdue, while backups Taylor Cook and Cannon Smith told Shannon last week that they were leaving the program. Shannon had been intent on starting sophomore Jacory Harris this season, and now there are two quarterbacks on the roster, to go along with true freshman A.J. Highsmith (son of former UM running back, Alonzo).
The Canes will be missing two defensive linemen for Monday's game, as defensive end Eric Moncur is out with a groin injury, while fellow defensive end Adewele Ojomo is out with a broken jaw.
The Seminoles ran all over the Canes in last season's 41-39 victory in Miami, as FSU rushed for 310 yards. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder tallied 144 yards on the ground, becoming the first Nole to rush for over 100 yards in a game since Charlie Ward in 1992.
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager of BetED.com discusses the line movement process when attacking this matchup. "In the beginning, we broke that game down and FSU as a -7 handicap, that's one of the reasons we didn't hesitate to move up to -6.5 early. I'm not sure what to expect now because of the early UM bets, I doubt the line will drop back down to the original opener, but it could drop a half-point. We'll know more closer to game-time, that's when 75% of our action is received and we'll assess and react," Scott says.
Over the last decade, eight games have been decided by eight points or less, including each contest since 2002. This will be the fourth time that the rivals are playing on Labor Day weekend, as opposed to the traditional first week of October. The last two games have sailed 'over' the total, with UM winning in Tallahassee, 37-29 in 2007 as 5 ½-point underdogs. The Seminoles returned the favor with last season's two-point win in the rain storm at Landshark Stadium as 1 ½-point 'dogs. However, both those contests were played in October, as opposed to the Labor Day games, with all three September matchups not seeing more than 26 combined points from 2004-2006, and all hitting the 'under.'
FSU is 0-3 ATS the last three as a home favorite in this rivalry, while the road underdog is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings, dating back to 1999. The Seminoles have not been a strong play at Doak Campbell Stadium as home 'chalk' over the last four seasons, compiling a 7-13 ATS mark.
In Shannon's two seasons at the "U," the Canes are just 9-14-1 ATS, but do own a 4-3-1 ATS record as an underdog. The 'push' at Florida last season can be argued as a loss, but the game closed with the Gators laying 23 points, and winning 26-3.
The Seminoles opened as four-point favorites, but the line has moved up to 6 and even 6 ½ in some spots. The total is set at 47, but has crept up to 48 at several shops.
Game of the day: Hurricanes at Seminoles
By NICK PARSONS
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5, 46.5)
Matchup stats and trends
Stopping the Florida State run
The Seminoles had 283 net rush yards in last year’s game, with quarterback Christian Ponder responsible for 147 of those. Miami had no answer for the speed option. Florida State wasn’t the only team that gave the Canes trouble. At the end of last season they gave up 472 yards against Georgia Tech and 219 versus N.C. State.
New defensive coordinator John Lovett is aware of this weakness. Look for Miami to put eight people in the box in most situations.
Ponder vs. Harris
Last year Christian Ponder threw for 14 TDs and 13 INTs and had to fight for the starting position. Ponder should be aided by an offensive line intact from last season. The unit’s experience as well as Ponder’s own from a year ago, should help the FSU offense. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is expecting Miami to focus on stopping the run, so we may see more passing from Ponder than usual.
Jacory Harris split duties under center as a true freshman last year. He enters this year as the starter, but he’ll have to master new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s pro style attack.
Graig Cooper and Javarris James will lead the rushing attack, but expect many three and four receiver sets from Miami.
Miami quick hits
- Depth at QB is thin with Robert Mavre, Taylor Cook, and Cannon Smith all transferring. That leaves true freshman A.J. Highsmith as the lone scholarship backup.
- Starters CB Ryan Hill and SS Vaughn Telemaque suffered injuries in Saturday's practice and are not expected to play on Monday.
- Hurricanes have had 4 straight losing seasons ATS
Florida State Quick bits
-Walk on Craig Yarborough is listed to start at Left End
-True freshman Dustin Hopkins, the No. 1 kicker out of high school, is listed as the starter. He hit a 65 yard FG in H.S.
-Seven true freshman are listed in either the first or second team in the pre-game depth chart that was released last Monday.
Line movement
The line opened up with Florida favored by 4 points. It’s since moved to -6 or -6.5 at most books. The total opened at 48.5 and is hovering between 46.5 and 47.
Trends
The spread was fairly sharp last year with Florida State covering by just three points. They were 1-point underdogs and won 41-39. The dog has covered the number in the last seven meetings.
The total has gone over the last two meetings and by a significant amount. The score went over by 39.5 points last year and 23.5 points in 2007.
Miami leads the series 30-23 overall, but is 2-3 in the last five matchups.
Weather
Monday night forecast expects lows around 66 with northeast winds around five mph. The field could be wet by kickoff with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Bad beats: College football's best Week 1 knockouts
By BEN BURNS - To be successful requires both hard work and passion
College football welcomed back bettors with a LaGarrett Blount right hand instead of a friendly handshake.
The opening week featured backdoor covers, favorites who forgot to score in the second half, a last-minute safety that affected a total and a meaningless touchdown on the game’s final play that hurt.
It left some of us feeling like Sam Bradford’s shoulder, and other more fortunate bettors with sheepish grins.
Here’s to bouncing back next week or keeping the good fortune coming.
Backdoor men: Favored by 41.5 over Louisiana-Monroe, Texas was in covering position, after a Garrett Gilbert 12-yard touchdown run put the Longhorns up 59-13 with seven minutes left.
But, aided by a Texas personal foul penalty, ULM mounted a nine-play, 69-yard drive, capped off by a Frank Goodin 13-yard touchdown run that slaughtered the hopes of Longhorn backers.
Shutting it down: That’s exactly what Penn State did in the second half against Akron.
After a dominating first half, the Nittany Lions were well on their way to covering a 29-point spread.
Penn State outgained the Zips 344-8 in the first half. PSU quarterback Darryl Clark completed 29 of 40 attempts and set a school record with 254 passing yards in the first half alone.
He hooked up with Graham Zug from 19 yards out for his third touchdown, which put the Nittany Lions up 31-0 at halftime.
But that was the last time Penn State would score, and Joe Paterno wasn’t any happier about it than bettors who took the Nittany Lions.
Paterno told reporters that many of his younger players "thought the thing was over at halftime."
"We just did not have any consistency in the second half. We didn't come off the football on either side of the ball, so I was disappointed," he said. "But we still won the football game."
Just not by enough.
Akron scored on a 40-yard touchdown in the third quarter and held on for a 31-7 cover.
Tricky Mormons: Trailing Utah 33-17 with 1:29 left, Utah State took over on its own six-yard line. Under 52 looked good.
Since it was still only a two-possession game, the visiting Aggies tried to start a drive from the shadows of their own goal line. Going 94 yards in a minute and a half seemed like a pipedream, though. What under bettors weren’t expecting was a safety, the second of the game. But that’s what they got, when Utah’s Nai Fotu sacked Utah State quarterback Diondre Borel in the end zone with 48 seconds left. It turned what looked like a for-sure under into a push.
Late-night lameness: How many of you played the total on the LSU-Washington game only because it was the last game on the card? It hurt you, if you took the under.
With six minutes to play, LSU led 24-13. The total was 52.5, so the under looked in good shape. Washington got a field goal with five minutes to play to get within eight. LSU responded with a six-play, 67-yard drive, capped by a six-yard touchdown pass from Jordan Jefferson to Brandon LaFell with 1:54 to play.
Now trailing 31-16, the Huskies were reduced to playing for pride, as they took over on their 18-yard line with 1:54 to play.
Washington pride inspired a long drive that ended with a nine-yard touchdown pass from Jake Locker to Kavario Middleton on the game’s final play. Final score: LSU 31, Washington 23.
Get well Sooner: Oklahoma's odds change with Bradford out
By ASHTON GREWAL
In less than two quarters of action, the Oklahoma Sooners’ season got flipped upside down. The injury to reigning Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford is forcing oddsmakers to adjust the Big 12 program’s odds.
The Sooners quarterback is recovering from a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder after he was driven into the ground on a clean hit by a BYU lineman late in the second quarter of the Cougar’s shocking upset.
One oddsmaker is comparing Bradford's value to his team to Tom Brady with New England Patriots.
“I think he’s worth about nine or 10 points,” says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “It reminds me what we did with Brady last year.”
The Pats franchise quarterback went down with a season-ending knee injury last year in the team’s Week 1 win over the Chiefs. The books originally had Pats -10 in mind for the following week’s game against the Jets, but with Brady out and Matt Cassel in, the line closed at -1.
The Sooners play Idaho State next weekend, a game that won’t have a line because of the uneven scale. Idaho State, a Division 1-AA school, lost 50-3 to Arizona State over the weekend.
The real question comes into play the following week at home against Tulsa. If Bradford can’t play against the Golden Hurricane – a strong possibility for a quarterback with a sore throwing shoulder – the Sooners would be favored by 13 or 14 points instead of 21 or 24, according to Seba.
And of course Oklahoma fans know that Bradford isn’t the only significant Sooner banged up. Second-team All-American tight end Jermaine Gresham missed the season opener against BYU and his return date is unclear.
“[Bradford and Gresham] are not just necessarily for our team, but those are two tremendous players that have great futures,” Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson told the Associated Press on Sunday. “We want to make sure their best interest is taken into consideration with what’s being done.”
The biggest impact of Bradford’s injury will be to Oklahoma’s over/under numbers. Seba says the team’s game totals should drop by 10 to 15 points, depending on who the opponent is, until No. 14 is back under center.
“I think their backup (Landry Jones) will be better,” Seba says. “But you have to think they’re going to be more conservative with their game plan.”
Betting the over in Oklahoma games was close to a sure thing last season. Bradford was the driving force behind an offense that averaged 51 points per game and accumulated an 11-2 over/under record.
Jones is a redshirt freshman who hasn’t seen much time on the field playing behind Bradford. He’s protected by an offensive line that is going through a major transition.
Logic says the Sooners will turn to a more possession-dominant, run-orientated offensive strategy.
Oddsmakers didn’t think Bradford’s absence would require as drastic of an adjustment. Each book thought Bradford was worth about seven points to the spread and about the same on the over/under number.
Bettors who have futures bets on the Sooners to either win the Big 12 and/or win the National Championship shouldn’t rip up their tickets just yet.
If Bob Stoops can get Bradford back on the field in time for his team’s first conference game, (Oct. 10 vs. Baylor) he could still be in the hunt for another Big 12 title.
Still, there are many more ifs attached to Oklahoma’s season then there was Saturday morning.
Logans shifted its odds on the Sooners winning the Big 12 from +150 to +300 and made a similar move with its National Championship odds, dropping the team to +2500.
NcaaF 9/7
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