Week 1 of the pro football season kicks off Thursday, when Pittsburgh hosts Tennessee in the primetime opener. The NFL is known as the toughest sport to beat by most professional gamblers and some shy away from it all together. Handicapping with confidence and starting off the season strong can only help one build their bankroll.
With that being said, we’re going back to the well and talking about two trends that are directly related to the last game of the previous season, the Super Bowl, and the opening week of the upcoming campaign.
In case you forgot, the Steelers defeated the Cardinals 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa Bay. The victory for Pittsburgh gave the franchise a record sixth Super Bowl win. The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com believe Mike Tomlin’s crew has a good chance to repeat this year, tabbing the club as a 10/1 choice to win SBXLIV from Miami, Fl on Feb. 7, 2010.
Even though some teams play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champions haven’t fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!
Nine years and counting, the defending Super Bowl champion has won in Week 1. Okay, that number might not impress you too much but did you know they own a 7-1-1 record against the spread during that span too?
Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2008)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 30-20 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)
The last defending champion to win and not cover was St. Louis in 2007. The Rams defeated the Broncos 41-36 but failed to cover as seven-point home favorites. Sticking with Denver, it fell to Miami 38-21 in Week 1 of the 1999 season, which was the last time the defending champs lost their opener after winning the Super Bowl in the previous year.
Pittsburgh can keep the trend rolling with a victory against Tennessee on Thursday.
Sticking with the Super Bowl theme, we would feel selfish not offering up another solid angle based on the big game. It’s been just as consistent as the above trend and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week, but for the entire season.
Ten straight seasons and counting, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is 2-8 straight up and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.
SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2008)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17
Last year, New England defeated Kansas City 17-10 in Week 1 but failed to cover the 16-point number. The Patriots did lose quarterback Tom Brady for the year in the first quarter and his backup Matt Cassel played well in this game and for the season too.
Arizona faces the daunting task of busting the streak and its Week 1 matchup against San Francisco does look a tad tricky. The Cardinals have been listed as 6 ½-point home favorites, which is three points lower than the previous three meetings between the two from the desert.
In those games, San Francisco has gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at Arizona. The two losses came by an average of six points, very close to the point-spread.
The Week 1 trend of playing against the Super Bowl losers has carried on for entire seasons. In the table below, you can see that only two of the last 10 losers in the big game have made a return trip to the postseason the very next year.
SUPER BOWL LOSER - RECORD HISTORY (1999-2008)
Year Loser SU Record ATS Record Playoffs
2009 Arizona
2008 New England 11-5 9-7 No
2007 Chicago 7-9 7-9 No
2006 Seattle 10-8 8-10 Yes
2005 Philadelphia 6-10 5-11 No
2004 Carolina 7-9 10-6 No
2003 Oakland 4-12 3-10-1 No
2002 St. Louis 9-7 4-12 No
2001 N.Y. Giants 10-6 9-7 No
2000 Tennessee 13-3 6-10 Yes
1999 Atlanta 5-11 6-10 No
Even though the Pats missed the postseason in 2008, they did boast a winning record both SU and ATS.
What a lot of people forget about Arizona last year is that the club made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, some might even say they earned a trip because the NFC West was horrible. Either way, they did win three in a row in the playoffs, including a big win at Carolina.
Will the Cards rise again? We’ll find out soon enough.
The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.
If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Minnesota Vikings were 3-1 under the total in preseason. Sure, all the talk has been on Brett Favre and what he potentially can give them -- a star QB they have not had since Fran Tarkenton retired. But remember, Favre joins a run-first offense, one with a great offensive line and a pair of terrific RBs in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.
And don’t overlook this defense, one that was No. 1 in the NFL last season at stopping the run. Their game plan under Brad Childress is usually to get a lead and then play it safe. They carry a 4-1 run under the total into the new season.
Miami is another team that likes to play tough defense and a ball control offense under Coach Tony Sparano. The defense was No. 15 in the NFL last season, 10th against the run, and DE Jason Taylor returns after a one-year hiatus in Washington. The Dolphins are 11-6 under the total under Sparano.
The defending champion Steelers also prefer to play that style under Mike Tomlin, starting 2-1 under the total last September. And that was without a healthy backfield. For 2009, the Steelers have both RBs Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall healthy, which can only help their ball control attack.
The Steelers open the season Thursday night against Tennessee. So when was the last time the Steelers lost a game that counted? Pitt lost to the Titans last December 21st. In that game, Tomlin's men were smacked around, 31-14, turning it over four times. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 329 yards, 2 TDs and 2 picks in trying to rally the Steelers, while the Titans had 117 rush yards against the great Pittsburgh defense, No. 1 in the NFL. Veteran QB Kerry Collins remained undefeated in his career against the Steelers, improving to 3-0, as he completed 20 of 29 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown. Of course, none of that matters this week as it's a new season.
The Patriots might be a team to look at should you want to play a game 'over' the total in September. The offense gets back QB Tom Brady and there is wide receiver talent everywhere. But the defense is a question mark. The secondary was weak last year and has new looks all over. They struggled often in preseason, as well. Tedy Bruschi retired, plus they just traded longtime star and five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders in a surprise move. Seymour, just 29, led the team with eight sacks last season. Since Seymour joined the Patriots (2001), the team has allowed an average of 17.8 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL over that span.
The Eagles and Panthers hook up in Week 1 Sunday, two teams that are far better than they looked in preseason. Forget about Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick -- Donovan McNabb is the quarterback of the Eagles, and he should be. Their passing offense will be interesting to watch in September as they added speedy WR DeSean Jackson last year and rookie WR Jeremy Maclin this season.
The Broncos are a team to look at – and maybe shield your eyes. They look thin everywhere for new coach Josh McDaniels. And who is the starting quarterback? QB Kyle Orton dislocated his finger and Chris Simms has a sprained ankle, so all that is left is rookie QB Tom Brandstater. McDaniels said there is a possibility that Orton and Simms could miss the first regular season game. Why again did they run Mike Shanahan out of town? Denver football fans will be asking that in December, if not sooner.
The N.Y. Jets might be the biggest question mark of all. They have a new coach in Rex Ryan -- an outspoken guy who ran the Baltimore defense the last few years -- plus rookie QB Mark Sanchez. He looked decent in preseason, but those games don't count. I can only think of the words of his college coach, Pete Carroll, who felt Sanchez should stay at USC another year because he wasn’t ready for the pros. Carroll said, "The facts are so strong against this decision....he should've stayed for another year." Maybe Carroll will be proved right, but after watching Oklahoma's QB Sam Bradford get injured yesterday, it's rarely a bad decision to take that much money when it's on the table.
We do know that NY offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's game planning will depend on Sanchez's ability to handle the mental aspect of his job. If he plays well, they will open the offense up. If the kid struggles, you will likely see more emphasis on running the football. Stay tuned. The best time of the sports calendar heats up this week!
NFL Top 5: Biggest questions heading into the season
By JOSH NAGEL
With the NFL season just a few days from kicking off, several teams head to the playing field shrouded by question marks that might define their seasons.
Sports bettors and oddsmakers alike are just as curious as the clubs to find out the answers.
Although the pre-season provided no shortage of story lines, the regular season is where the final chapters will be written.
Here is a rundown of the Top 5 biggest questions to be answered in the upcoming NFL season:
Will Tom Brady return to his pre-injury form?
Brady’s health and effectiveness is going to be the biggest factor in determining the fate of the New England Patriots, the balance of power in the AFC and the result for future bettors who are backing the chalk (+400 at most sports books) to win the Super Bowl.
At 32, Brady is nearing the twilight of his physical prime. Although he hasn’t taken the beating that many quarterbacks endure over their careers, the severe knee injury he suffered in Week1 last year (a torn anterior cruciate ligament and medial collateral ligament) has spelled the beginning of the end for many NFL players.
Carson Palmer of the Cincinnati Bengals hasn’t been the same since suffering a similar injury. Although Brady never has been known for his mobility, he always has been just agile enough to stay out of harm’s way. If he can no longer do so, his career and the Patriots are in trouble.
Will Brett Favre be the difference-maker for the Minnesota Vikings?
There’s little doubt that Favre is the best option at quarterback on the Vikings’ roster. Whether his on-field play can offset the damage done during the process to sign him remains to be seen. Several Vikings players reportedly were turned off by Favre’s infamous waffling regarding his return, and they resented his absence during training camp.
Coach Brad Childress seems to have lost credibility by misleading his team regarding the franchise’s pursuit of Favre. If the coach and quarterback fail to receive the full support of the locker room, the Vikings could take a step backward.
Several oddsmakers have told Covers.com that Favre is worth a half-point to one point at most for the Vikings on the point spread. One oddsmaker who is a successful former handicapper said he believes Favre doesn’t help them at all.
Will the Michael Vick experiment work for the Philadelphia Eagles?
The Philadelphia Eagles appear to be an odd match for the return of the troubled quarterback. While the veteran coaching staff seems to be a good fit and the city seems to just judge Vick based primarily on his performance, you still have to wonder whether the signing is a good long-term fit.
In other words, the last time we checked, Philadelphia already had a mobile, athletic signal-caller behind center.
Controversy-magnet Donovan McNabb seems to have attracted another headline. Although many sources reported that McNabb endorsed the move, you have to wonder why he’d give himself another reason to look over his shoulder.
Will the Detroit Lions win a football game?
If you are a Lions fan, may Jim Schwartz with be with you. This moribund franchise, which collapsed at the feet of former general manager Matt Millen, can’t possibly do worse than last year’s historic 0-16 mark. The new regime is counting on its new coach, Schwartz, and an overhauled roster to change the team’s fortunes.
The season win total for the Lions is 4.5 at most sports books. The over seems a lofty goal at this point. No. 1 draft pick Matthew Stafford appears too inexperienced and erratic to be tossed into the starting lineup. The alternative is injury-prone journeyman Daunte Culpepper, who appears to have his best years behind him. If the Lions grab the money for over bettors, Schwartz deserves an extension.
Will Raiders coach Tom Cable have a job by the end of October?
If you were setting odds for the first NFL coach to earn a pink slip this season, Cable would have to be the odds-on favorite. This might be the only bet you’ll find this year in which the Raiders are a prohibitive chalk.
Forget for a moment that Cable allegedly clocked an assistant coach and might be facing legal charges as a result. If nothing else, the incident might have earned him a little more street cred with owner Al Davis.
The Swiss-cheese defense and lopsided losses will cost Cable his job. The Raiders defense has done its best to impersonate an 11-man crew of friendly ghosts disguised in silver and black and third-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell has failed to emerge as the franchise player the club coveted when they drafted him No. 1 overall.
Davis was hesitant to give Cable the permanent coaching job – it’s unlikely he’ll have any such apprehensions about taking it away.
Uncoordinated: Rash of OC firings not moving NFL Week 1 odds
The three people that may have the biggest impact on the opening week of the NFL season aren’t even with their teams anymore.
We are talking about ex-offensive coordinators Chan Gailey, Jeff Jagodzinski and Turk Schonert, who were fired by the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills this past week. Just days before the season begins, those teams elected to can the men in charge of making sure they put points on the board.
So what impact – if any – will the historic string of firings have?
Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED.com, believes any changes in the lines will be driven by the bettors, not the books.
“It's never happened before, and that means the books and the bettors are both in the dark as to the effects these firings will have,” he said. “My approach will be simple, and that's to keep the numbers the same and only react to the bettors' action.”
Each of those three teams did little on offense last year. Under Gailey, the Chiefs were ranked 24th in the league in offense, averaging 18.2 points and 308.7 yards per game. Schonert, who tried to install a no-huddle approach this year, saw his unit ranked 25th last year, averaging just 21 points and 305.1 yards per game. Meantime, Jagodzinski, was in his first year with the Bucs, trying to rebuild a group ranked 14th, but averaged just 22.6 points and 341 yards.
Looking at the opening total lines, they haven't moved. Most books have the total for Kansas City-Baltimore steady at 37, Buffalo-New England consistent at 48 and Tampa Bay-Dallas still at 39.
The firing of the coaches will undoubtedly have an impact. But as far as bettors and the books are concerned, it appears to be negligible at best.
“I imagine the totals for each of those games will get looked at closely,” Scott said. “But because no one has anything solid to go by, most of the predictions will be only guesses.”
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