Dr. Bob 9/6
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
*Mississippi (-16.0) 40 MEMPHIS 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Sep-09
Mississippi was one of the nation's top 5 teams at the end of last season and the only team to beat National Champion Florida, doing so on the road. All 4 of the Rebels' losses last season were by 7 points or less (they were 2-4 in close games) and this season they are once again rated in my top-5 teams (#5).
Mississippi's offense is led by junior quarterback Jevan Snead, who barely lost out to Colt McCoy for the starting spot at Texas a few years ago before transferring to Ole Miss. Snead has a great arm and can get the ball down the field, which helped him average 8.4 yards per pass attempt despite only completing 56% of his passes. Snead did have some problems with interceptions early in the season, throwing 7 in his first 4 games and 4 in the loss to Vanderbilt, but he never threw more than 1 pick the rest of the season and totaled just 6 interceptions in his final 9 games. Snead may be improved this season, but losing big play receiver Mike Wallace (20.1 yards per catch) and probably facing more pressure without left tackle Michael Oher (1st round NFL draft pick) should result in a drop of about 0.5 yards per pass play this season. Losing Oher will probably affect the rushing numbers a bit too, but Ole Miss should still be a better than average running team and I rate the Rebels' offense at 0.8 yards per play better than average after rating at +1.0 yppl last season.
Mississippi's defense was pretty good early in the season, but the Rebels became great defensively when pass rushing star DE Greg Hardy joined the lineup in game 4 after missing the first 3 games. Hardy also missed games against Arkansas and Auburn in which the defense didn't perform as well, but the Mississippi D was very good in the 8 games that Hardy played rating at 1.2 yppl better than average. The Rebels were only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively in the 5 games that Hardy missed and the sack totals were night and day. Mississippi averaged 1.6 sacks in 5 games without Hardy and 3.8 sacks per game with him and Hardy should enjoy a monster year this season if he doesn't get hurt. The Rebels do lose 1st round NFL draft choice Peria Jerry, who recorded 7 sacks and 11 other tackles for loss. Those are great numbers for a defensive tackle, but Mississippi is so loaded on the defensive line again this season that Hardy probably won't start. The Rebels return starters at the other 3 positions on the defensive line and former top recruit Jerrell Powe finally appears ready to dominate after getting in shape and dominating during the off season. The linebacking corps and the secondary are also loaded with talent and Ole Miss looks to have one of the best defensive teams in the nation and could be just as good as they were in the 8 games that Hardy played in last season.
Memphis has made it a bowl game the last two years despite being a bad team. Last season the Tigers were decent offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but they were once again horrible on defense. Memphis surrendered 6.1 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. Memphis as an even worse 1.4 yppl worse than average defensively in 2007 and 1.0 yppl worse than average in 2006, so this is not a problem that is getting solved despite having 8 starters returning on that side of the ball in each of the last two years. This season 7 starters return on the defense, but one of them is not star DT Clinton McDonald, who earned 1st Team All-CUSA honors despite missing 3 1/2 games last season (he had 7 sacks and was also drafted by the Bengals). Memphis was even worse defensively without McDonald last season (-1.3 yppl) and they could be worse defensively this season now that he is gone. The Tigers do have the makings of a good defensive back 7, however, so the pass defense should be much improved while the run defense continues to struggle. I'll rate Memphis at 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively this season but there is a good chance they could be just as bad.
The Tigers' offense looks like it could be decent again, as quarterback Arkelon Hall returns along with top RB Curtis Steele (1233 yards at 5.6 ypr) and some potentially game breaking receivers. The problem is a rebuilt offensive line that returns just 1 starter, so I don't expect the rushing attack to be quite as good. Hall may face more pressure this season, but he should be improved and his receiving corps is better, so the passing numbers should be solid once again. Overall, the Tigers should be about average offensively once again this season, but there is potential for them to be better if the receivers can reach their potential and the rebuilt line holds up.
I don't expect the Memphis line to hold up well against Mississippi's dominating defensive line in this game and Hall won't have enough time to find his fast set of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, Jevon Snead and the rest of the offense should have another field day moving the ball on a bad Memphis defense, much like they did last year in racking up 7.4 yards per play. Memphis gained 5.5 yppl in last year's 24-41 loss, but the Rebels were without their two best defensive players in that game as Hardy and Jerry were both out and Mississippi wasn't much better than average defensively in 5 games without Hardy. Memphis this year will face a dominating Ole Miss defense and the Tigers didn't perform well against good defensive teams last season, gaining 183 at 3.2 yppl against ECU, 305 at 4.2 yppl against UCF, and just 238 at 3.7 yppl in their bowl loss to USF. My ratings favor Mississippi by 25 1/2 points in this game and the Rebels also apply to a 94-53-3 ATS week 1 situation. I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.
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