[G-men]

The Dean's List: Be very quiet. We're hunting upsets
By JASON LOGAN

The Appalachian State Mountaineers' 2007 upset of the Michigan Wolverines has become the Kennedy Assassination of college football moments – a true “Where were you when...” sporting event.

Me? I was actually lounging poolside at my former residence on Sept. 1, 2007. Somehow the planets aligned, giving me a sunny day off on the opening Saturday of college football. I listened to the first three quarters through my living room window but had to witness the closing minutes of the game with my own eyes.

As the Division 1-AA Mountaineers kicked a field goal to take a 34-32 lead with under 30 seconds left, I cracked beer No. 9 of a 12-beer day. And when they blocked Michigan's field goal attempt in the dying seconds, that beer fell to the ground. I'm sure the stain is still on the carpet today – just like the memory of that game is still in our heads.

The early season shocker has become a trend the last two years. In 2008, the season opened with Arkansas State's 18-14 win at Texas A&M as 18-point underdogs. Then, East Carolina gave football bettors back-to-back early upsets. The underdog Pirates opened the schedule with a win at Virginia Tech before defeating West Virginia at home in Week 2.

This rash of improbabilities has books and bettors on upset alert in the opening weeks of the 2009 college football calendar.

Don't be fooled by those big pointspreads or the “We don't take anyone lightly” tripe the coaches feed the beat writers. The next big upset is out there lurking. You just need to know how to hunt it.

It seems Notre Dame haters (and there are a ton of them) were quick to pull the trigger on the Nevada Wolf Pack as the upset special in Week 1. But going into South Bend (with that pass defense) and taking the opening game from a talented Irish offense isn't easy, no matter how much you hate the movie Rudy. Other false idols being worshipped by the upset sect were Maryland over Cal and Virginia Tech over Alabama.

Those teams couldn't even cover the spread - let alone pull off the upset. But pegging those would-be upsets would be like reeling in Nemo when you're fishing for Moby Dick. Even BYU's upset of No. 3 Oklahoma will come with an asterisk, thanks to Sam Bradford's shoulder injury.

Looking back at Michigan's loss, the biggest thing going against the Wolverines was their lack of urgency. As a perennial powerhouse in the college ranks, Michigan expected everything to just work out against Appy State.

It had home-field advantage, a surplus of five-star talent and the stigma of being an 11-time national champion. But when the Mountaineers didn't tuck tail and run, UM was left looking at the clock in disbelief.

One team that carries this false sense of entitlement into this season is Mississippi, who opens as a 16.5-point road favorite against the Memphis Tigers Sunday.

After being the only team to defeat the BCS champion Florida Gators and an impressive win over Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl last year, there is a ton of buzz surrounding Ole Miss this offseason.

The Rebels have a ton of talent on offense behind junior quarterback Jevan Snead - and they've heard that over and over again this summer.

If the constant heavy petting around Oxford doesn't have the Rebels' heads feeling two sizes bigger, then the attention of the national media and No. 8 ranking in the polls will have filled their egos to the tipping point.

Memphis always gets fired up for this yearly meeting and relishes the role of underdog. These programs have opened the schedule against each other the past five seasons with Ole Miss going 4-1 but covering in just two of those contests.

The campuses are just 85 miles apart, making this one of college football's most understated rivalries. And rivalry games breed big upsets. Just look at Texas Tech’s win over Texas last November.

Ole Miss also has big weakness below the neck heading into 2009. The offensive line is missing major cogs from 2008 and is depending on inexperienced players to step up. Those talents will come around once they get a few games under their belts. But there will be first-game jitters and mistakes, especially on the road.

Memphis is leaning on seven returning defensive starters. The Tigers’ depth chart is also bolstered by several SEC and JuCo transfers. There is a lot of talent at linebacker including senior Greg Jackson, who was the team's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008.

The Rebels also have trouble defending the pass. Last season, they were dead last in passing defense in the SEC. They allowed almost 222 passing yards per game and watched 18 balls soar into the end zone.

Mississippi's top corners, Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn, stand 5-foot-9 and 5-foot-11. They'll be looking up at the Tigers receiving corps which features Carlos Singleton and Duke Calhoun, who tower over Ole Miss at 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-4.

Memphis' running game may get all the attention, but with senior quarterback Arkelon Hall back behind center and more comfortable in the spread offense, the Tigers’ air attack could be just as potent. Last year against Ole Miss, Hall shared duties under center and put up 152 yards and an interception. Singleton caught six balls for 89 yards while Calhoun wrangled four catches for 43 yards.

Of course, setting up the pass is the crash-and-dash stylings of senior running back Curtis Steele along with Wisconsin-transfer Lance Smith. Memphis rumbled for almost 195 yards per game and ranked 23rd in the nation in 2008.

Even if those obvious edges aren’t evidence enough to convince bettors to take the Tigers at +600 on the moneyline, it should have them feeling pretty warm and fuzzy about taking the 16.5 points.

But if Sunday's game does turn out to be one of those “Where were you when…” upsets, I expect most people to say they were either picking their jaws up off the ground or emailing Jason Logan to thank him for the ton of money they just won.

[G-men]

Sunshine State Clash
By Kevin Rogers


The rivalry between the University of Miami and Florida State doesn't hold the same meaning as it did earlier in the decade, but the Canes and Noles usually provide very close games when they hook up. The venue shifts to Tallahassee this season, as Bobby Bowden's club goes for their second straight win over UM. Meanwhile, down in Coral Gables, there has plenty of drama with Randy Shannon's club recently.

The offseason has been interesting for both squads, as FSU was in the news for victories getting taken away due to the use of ineligible players. Despite the issue not resolved yet, it does affect Bowden's career win total, as he is battling it out with Penn State's Joe Paterno for the most career victories in college football.

The Hurricanes lost three quarterbacks over the last eight months, as last season's co-starter Robert Marve transferred to Purdue, while backups Taylor Cook and Cannon Smith told Shannon last week that they were leaving the program. Shannon had been intent on starting sophomore Jacory Harris this season, and now there are two quarterbacks on the roster, to go along with true freshman A.J. Highsmith (son of former UM running back, Alonzo).

The Canes will be missing two defensive linemen for Monday's game, as defensive end Eric Moncur is out with a groin injury, while fellow defensive end Adewele Ojomo is out with a broken jaw.

The Seminoles ran all over the Canes in last season's 41-39 victory in Miami, as FSU rushed for 310 yards. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder tallied 144 yards on the ground, becoming the first Nole to rush for over 100 yards in a game since Charlie Ward in 1992.

Over the last decade, eight games have been decided by eight points or less, including each contest since 2002. This will be the fourth time that the rivals are playing on Labor Day weekend, as opposed to the traditional first week of October. The last two games have sailed 'over' the total, with UM winning in Tallahassee, 37-29 in 2007 as 5 ½-point underdogs. The Seminoles returned the favor with last season's two-point win in the rain storm at Landshark Stadium as 1 ½-point 'dogs. However, both those contests were played in October, as opposed to the Labor Day games, with all three September matchups not seeing more than 26 combined points from 2004-2006, and all hitting the 'under.'

FSU is 0-3 ATS the last three as a home favorite in this rivalry, while the road underdog is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings, dating back to 1999. The Seminoles have not been a strong play at Doak Campbell Stadium as home 'chalk' over the last four seasons, compiling a 7-13 ATS mark.

In Shannon's two seasons at the "U," the Canes are just 9-14-1 ATS, but do own a 4-3-1 ATS record as an underdog. The 'push' at Florida last season can be argued as a loss, but the game closed with the Gators laying 23 points, and winning 26-3.

The Seminoles opened as four-point favorites, but the line has moved up to 6 and even 6 ½ in some spots. The total is set at 47, but has crept up to 48 at several shops.

[G-men]

Sunday Doubleheader
By Judd Hall


I hope you’re not done with college football as we’ve still got a pair of televised games left to watch this Sunday during the Labor Day weekend. It all starts in land of blue suede shoes with the Tigers hosting Ole Miss. Then we’ll finish off the day with the Rocky Mountain Showdown between the Rams and Buffaloes.

Ole Miss at Memphis – 3:30 p.m. EDT, ESPN

The betting shops aren’t making too many bones about who is the favorite for this contest. They have installed the Rebels as 17-point road favorites with a total of 54 ½.

Houston Nutt is going to have his work cut out for him this year after how he started his tenure in Oxford. Ole Miss went 9-4 straight up in 2008 under Nutt, including wins over the Gators in the regular season and Red Raiders in the Cotton Bowl. Even bettor for the gambling public is that the Rebs went 10-3 against the spread last year. The four setbacks on the slate were by a combined 19 points (no worse than seven), which gives fans a reason to be optimistic in 2009.

A lot of the Rebels’ success this season is going to ride on how well Jevan Snead performs under center. The former Longhorn completed 56 percent of his passes for 2,762 yards and 26 touchdowns. Those are numbers rivaled only by the likes of Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow.

Ole Miss will once again employ the “Wild Rebel” with Dexter McCluster at the point. He’s definitely an all-purpose kind of player, as evidenced by 655 rushing yards and 625 receiving yards with seven scores.

While the Rebs are looking to keep going strong, Memphis is just hoping not to get off to such a rocky beginning. The Tigers opened the 2008 campaign with three straight losses, covering the spread just once. But they picked it up with six wins in their final nine regular season tilts to get back to a bowl game. Bettors didn’t get rich on this club as they went 5-5 ATS.

The Tigers are well stocked at quarterback with Arkelon Hall slated to start. If Hall should fail, Will Hudgens (who is on the Dan Dickau college plan) will be ready to pick up the slack.

What will be a challenge for Memphis in this game is how well they can defend the run. Last year, they allowed 4.7 yards per carry. That is the exact same average YPC that the Rebs had for 2008. The Tigers do have reason to be confident that they can hold Ole Miss back on the ground with juco transfer Justin Thompson anchoring the defensive line now. Their secondary will get a much needed boost with DeRon Furr starting after sitting out ’08 because of transferring from Auburn.

The Rebels have controlled this series recently by winning eight of the last 10 meetings. Memphis has been profitable during that stretch though as they’re 5-3 ATS in the past eight head-to-heads.

If you’re thinking about playing the Tigers for the upset win, you might want to know that they are 0-7 SU the last seven times they were listed as double-digit home underdogs. They are, however, 5-2 ATS in those meetings.

Colorado State vs. Colorado – 7:00 p.m. EDT, Fox Sports Net

Is it do or die this year for Dan Hawkins in Boulder?

That is a question that has been raised over the summer about the Buffaloes’ head coach. It’s fair to ask since Colorado hasn’t had one winning campaign in the three seasons Hawkins has been at the helm. Plus, it doesn’t help that he never won fewer than eight games when he was running Boise State from 2001 to 2005.

There is reason to believe Colorado will have bounce back this season. For one thing, a lot of key players are coming off of injuries that hurt the team last season. The biggest return for the Buffs is sophomore guard Ryan Miller, who has 11 career starts under his belt.

Miller will help anchor an offensive line that averages 290 pounds per starter. That’s going to be helpful for running backs Darrell Scott and Demetrius Sumler, who’ll be tasked with keeping the offense moving on the ground.

The Buffs are going to be employing a two-headed quarterback system with Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen. Hawkins is quite capable of running the no-huddle attack that Colorado employs. However, Hansen can throw the ball and has the mobility to recover yardage from a broken play.

Regardless of who Colorado lines up under center, they should feast upon a defense that is starting a brand new defensive line like the Rams possess. Colorado State’s stopping unit allowed 410.1 yards per game, bad enough to rank 96th in the nation.

All is not bad for the Rams on defense. They have a reasonable chance of improving against the pass after surrendering 220.00 YPG through the air. Gerard Thomas and Nick Oppenneer return this season to anchor the cornerback position.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game up with the Buffs being listed as 10-point favorites with a total of 54 at Invesco Field in Denver. Colorado is now listed as an 11-point “chalk” with the total going anywhere from 54 down to 51 ½.

This series has been owned by the Buffaloes, winning 58 of the 77 head-to-head meetings. In recent history, Colorado is 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS. The ‘over’ is 6-4 in that stretch.

Bettors should know that Colorado State has not fared well as a heavy pup. The Rams are 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS when posted as double-digit underdogs.

[G-men]

What bettors Need to Know: Sunday’s NCF action
By DOC'S SPORTS - I love the feeling of making people money

Game: No. 10 Mississippi Rebels at Memphis Tigers (+17.5, 54.5)

Line Movement

The line opened at 17 at most sportsbooks before falling to 16 a week before the game. But as the game approached the line climbed back to 17, and even 18 at some places. The total has stayed steady at 54.5.

Weather

The weather could be a factor as scattered thunderstorms and plenty of rain is expected during the day at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.

Recent series

It has been all Ole Miss recently in this series with the Rebels winning eight of 10 dating back to 1995. This is also the 10th time the SEC school is the favorite in the last 11 head-to-head matchups. The over is 4-2-1 in recent meetings between Ole Miss and Memphis.

Who can we trust?

Football and basketball at Memphis have next to nothing in common. The football team coasts season to season, occasionally posting enough wins to reach a bowl game that it usually loses. Marquee wins are not a staple of this program.

Then there is Ole Miss. Everybody remembers the Rebels historic upset at Florida in the swamp as 23-point underdogs last season. What most people forget is what happened the week before and the week after that. Ole Miss lost straight up at home against Vanderbilt before the Florida upset and at home against South Carolina the week after the upset. But the season ended on a high note for Ole Miss supporters with the program winning 31-13 at LSU in late November and then 47-34 over a hot Texas Tech team in the Cotton Bowl.

Trends

While Memphis is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last six meetings against Ole Miss, a more pertinent trend involves what Ole Miss has been able to do away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. In the Rebels last eight games on the road or at a neutral site they are 7-1 ATS, including the previously mentioned program-changing wins against Florida, LSU and Texas Tech.

Houston, we have progress

After being jettisoned out of Arkansas, Houston Nutt has turned Ole Miss around almost overnight. The results have been seen by Rebel fans and Rebel bettors alike. After posting dismal straight up (SU) records of 4-8 and 3-9 in 2006 and 07, and ATS records of 5-4 and 6-5, respectively, the Rebels turned things around in a hurry last season going 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS.

Key Players

Ole Miss QB Jevan Sneed

The 6-foot-3, 215 pound junior originally committed to Florida, then enrolled at Texas where he played one season and then last season he found himself at Ole Miss. It’s funny how things worked out for all the parties involved. Tim Tebow has become a legend in Florida, Colt McCoy is perhaps the top passer in the country now at Texas and Snead finds himself on the cusp of stardom in Oxford, Mississippi. He passed for 2,762 yards last season and threw 26 touchdowns. He will be a game-changer this season and perhaps a Heisman contender if Ole Miss can take care of business in the SEC.

Memphis RB Curtis Steele

Las Vegas is expecting a shootout and for the Tigers to hold up their end of the bargain Steele, a former JUCO transfer and 1,223-yard rusher a year ago, needs to pile up the yards and help out the passing game. He averaged an impressive 5.6-yard per carry but his offensive line this year is suspect.

Game: Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes (-10, 51)

All-time series

Since the Rocky Mountain Showdown began in 1893 between Colorado and Colorado State, it has been all Buffaloes, who own a 58-19-2 series record against their in-state rivals. Colorado State has held its own recently, winning four of the last 10 games.

Two teams, two directions

Colorado finished last season going down in flames, losing seven of its last nine with plenty of blowouts mixed in. There was no bowl game to speak of for the five-win Buffs. On the other side of the state, Colorado State was busy winning three of its last four to reach the New Mexico Bowl, which it also won, 40-35, over Fresno State.

Home, sweet home

The Showdown has been played at a neutral site for most of the past two decades but this year it takes a break from INVESCO Field at Mile High and returns to Colorado’s home field, Folsom Field.

The last time the game was played at Folsom, in 2004 and 2005, Colorado won both games but the Rams more than held their own, losing by just a field goal each game and covering the spread both times.

Trends

Staying on the Folsom Field thought, the Rams have been a solid bet on enemy soil. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Colorado. Overall the underdog has fared well in this series, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 showdowns.

The over has hit in nine out of 13 meetings between these two teams.

Key Players

Colorado RB Darrell Scott

Scott, coach Dan Hawkins’ top recruit a year ago, is poised to take over as the feature back in the Buffs backfield. A sophomore out of Tallahassee, Florida, Scott rushed for 339 yards on 88 carries last season when Rodney Stewart was receiving the bulk of the carries. The passing game is suspect but the offensive line is a team strength. That should set up a big year for the tailback this season.

Colorado State WRs Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton

Quarterback Billy Farris is gone as is leading rusher Gartrell Johnson III. The progression of the offense will occur at a much faster pace if playmakers Greer and Morton step up and improve on their numbers from last season.

Greer hauled in 63 passes for 1,114 yards and Morton was a quarterback’s best friend in the red zone, leading the team with 10 touchdown receptions. Greer burst on the scene last season in his debut against Colorado with eight catches for 70 yards. Against the Buffs Morton caught four passes for 53 yards and a touchdown.

Weather

No precipitation is expected and the temperature will be around 55 degrees.