[G-men]

NASCAR Jack: Pep Boys Auto 500 preview & picks
By NASCAR JACK

There are so many questions going into the Pep Boys 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Will four-race winner Kyle Busch (7-1) finish high enough to give him a chance going into Richmond?

Will four-race winner Mark Martin (7-1) get knocked out of the elite dozen if he has two poor finishes?

And, have you ever been to sea, Billy?

It's getting pretty frantic between Chase positions eight and 14 which is why the Chase is a successful venture for NASCAR.

Playoffs are good for any sport (Hello? College football?) and the next two shootouts at the Atlanta and Richmond corrals are guaranteed to leave some dead bodies strewn about the track. That's a metaphor of course. I'm not predicting real-life carnage for anyone.

Kyle is doing what Jeff Gordon (8-1) did about 13 years ago when he became the best young driver in NASCAR winning 10 races in 1996. The difference is Kyle is crazy at times. But I guess that comes with the territory.

The only thing I am afraid of in Atlanta is what will happen when Kyle sees the Guitar Hero paint job on Martin Truex Jr.'s ride. Will he smash it to pieces thereby putting them both out? More questions.

I've got another one for you: Where the hell is Tony Stewart (8-1)? and Jimmie Johnson (5-1)?

Ok, that's two more. But it's like once they locked into the Chase they got David Copperfield to make them disappear.

Here are my matchup picks:

Tony Stewart (+105) vs. Mark Martin (-125)

Tony has two wins and an AF of 12.0 at AMS. Mark has two wins and an AF of 17.2. Mark will be driving like he has a tarantula in his pants while Tony will be out for a serene Sunday stroll in the park humming 'Moon River' and wondering why everybody is in such a hurry. I am picking the guy who wants to finish fast so he doesn't get stung.

Kyle Busch (+110) vs. Jimmie Johnson (-130)

When you follow these guys as much as I do, you tend to be on a first name basis even though I haven't had the pleasure of sharing a cold one with either. J.J. has three wins and an AF of 9.1, the best of any driver. Kyle has one win and an AF of 18.2 but he hasn't been here nearly as often as Jimmie. I'm in a dilemma because my sentimental side wants to see Kyle make the Chase. But that’s dumb, Take Jimmie and maybe Krazy Kyle will have a Top-5 finish.

Kurt Busch (+125) vs. Carl Edwards (-145)

We have been given a gift. Kurt has two wins and an AF of 18.6 which is decent. He is in sixth in points and is having a terrific year. Carl is in fifth in points and is absolutely in love with AMS. He has three wins and a sweet AF of 10.7. I don't care that he broke his foot playing Frisbee and won't be flipping out if he wins. I just think he will finish ahead of Kurt - in a gimpy sort of way.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+115) vs. Juan Montoya (-135)

Un-be-liev- able. That's what it is. Juan Pablo has no wins and only one Top 5 but sits ninth in points. How is this possible? (Sigh, another question.) He has not spent enough time at Atlanta to know it well but he has learned to drive in a mediocre but consistent manner on all the tracks. Just be around at the end is his modus operandi - whatever that means in English?

Atlanta and Junior, on the other hand, are old pals. He has one win, eight Top-5s, 10 Top 10s and an AF of 11.6. That's pretty damn fine. Add in that he finally has a car to drive and it means he will finish ahead of “Mr. Don't Push The Envelope” Montoya.

[G-men]

Pep Boys Auto 500 preview
By Micah Roberts


Only two races remain in the Race to the Chase before the 12-driver field will be set for the final 10 races of the season in NASCAR’s version a playoff. Only 162 points separate the driver currently in seventh, Ryan Newman, from the driver in 15th, Clint Bowyer.
The next two races are in the deep South of Atlanta and then the Capital of the Confederacy, in Richmond. Both tracks are a fitting finale for what is essentially a wild card chase to advance.

The last time we visited Atlanta was in early March for the fourth race of the season. Kurt Busch dominated the race for it’s entirety. With the way his car performed that day on the 1.5-mile high banked fast track, it was thought that Busch might be able to duplicate that kind of success later on the sister tracks of Texas and Charlotte, but it didn’t happen.

Busch’s win that day remains his only win of the season, but he has been consistent enough throughout the season to be firmly entrenched in the Chase, currently sitting sixth. Over his career, Busch has an average finish of 18th in Atlanta with two wins in 17 starts.

Jeff Gordon has had one of he better combined runs on these type of tracks this season which also includes Las Vegas. Gordon finished second in Atlanta, then came back to win at Texas. He also ran very well in Charlotte, but the finish doesn’t reflect it because it was rain shortened.

His Texas win remains his only win of the season. Knowing how good his car has been on these tracks, his team has to be elated to be getting back on it since they haven’t raced on one since Charlotte in late May.

Atlanta is where it all started for Gordon. He started his first career Cup race there. 34 races later, Gordon has four career wins and 22 top-10 finishes. Look for Gordon to contend for the win a be a force in the playoffs where two of the 10 races are at Texas and Charlotte.

Kyle Busch is 34 points from the 12th and final position. He’s only got two races to make it, but his chances look pretty good based on his record in Atlanta and Richmond. Since moving to Joe Gibbs Racing last season, Busch has been one of the best in Atlanta that includes a win and a top-5 finish last season there. On like-tracks, Busch claims a win in Las Vegas and lead the most laps at Charlotte before the rain came out.

Busch looks to have had an attitude adjustment over the last two weeks and no one from the Gibbs organization is taking claim to any kind of pep talk. Busch may have done his own soul searching and figured out that in order to be consistent each week, he’s got to be a little better mentally prepared.

Immediately following his change in demeanor, Busch captured his fourth win of the season by sweeping Bristol.

Jimmie Johnson is the favorite to win this week on the basis of his continued domination of these type of tracks. In Atlanta, Johnson has a track best average finish of ninth with three wins in 16 career races. What makes Johnson extremely tough to bet against this week is that he’s going flat out for wins. He’s got enough points, what he needs now is wins to get him tied with Mark Martin with four which would give him the lead to start the Chase.

Brian Vickers is only 39 points out of the 12th and final position in the Chase. He finished 5th in Atlanta and Charlotte this season and looks to build off his momentum from his big Michigan win three weeks ago. Vickers has to run well this week and duplicate, or better, what he did in March’s Atlanta race because relying on a great Richmond finish will be a tall task.

Carl Edwards is still looking for that elusive first win of 2009 after winning the most in 2008 with nine. Atlanta has always been good to Edwards, a place he claims three wins at. In March he ran very well with a third, but after that, Edwards couldn’t duplicate the Roush-Fenway success they traditionally had on the fast 1.5-mile tracks.

This race will ultimately be split up into several categories with those who in going for wins and those who are one of the nine on the brink looking to score positive points, stay out of trouble, and get a top-5 or top-10 finish.

Clint Bowyer may likely not finish in the top-5 for this race or have a chance to win, but if playing matchups, Bowyer should be golden because he has proven to one of the best drivers in the race to the chase down the stretch. It’s a good bet that Bowyer lets the others in front of him in points race themselves out of the chase while he does his thing and shoots for a top-10 finish.

A driver on the opposite end of the end, and who Bowyer is hoping self-destructs as in the past, is Kasey Kahne. Kahne has been in this situation before and has failed miserably each time. Despite everything there for the taking, Kahne feels like a sitting duck once again and may pressure himself too much. He is a very good bet against in driver matchups this week vs. just about anyone who finishes races on a weekly basis.

Matt Kenseth is the cool veteran who just may stay where he is and let everyone else around him battle. He doesn’t have the equipment to go for a win, or compete for a top-5, but he’s savvy enough to play the game like Bowyer. He’s never missed a Chase yet.

For the upper-echelon of drivers who are basically set, it’s a freebie. No more points racing, it’s time for bonus points and placement setting when the Chase starts. Expect to see drivers like Gordon, Johnson, Stewart, and Greg Biffle be as aggressive as ever this week and willing to take chances on fuel and tires down the stretch.

As crazy and reckless as it may seem, I would expect Kyle Busch to be mixing it up with them minus the risky pit strategies. He may have given the perception that he’s changed his attitude a bit, but when the green flag drops, he’ll likely be going all out despite his points situation.

If making matchup wagers, you can go one way or another on that strategy. Bet against Kyle and go with his 13 race losing history prior to his Bristol win which is pretty sound and logical, or go against all that a believe Kyle will make things happen en route to making the Chase.

If you are one of many who had future wagering on Kyle winning the 2009 NASCAR Cup title, this may a time to start hedging those wagers with bet-against’s in match-ups to retrieve some of that money invested with hopes Busch does poorly.

I may be blinded a bit since I’m a Las Vegan and always root for the best for the Busch brothers, but I like his chances to do well this week.

TOP 5 Finish Predicton:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #2 Kurt Busch (12/1)
5) #99 Carl Edwards (8/1)

[G-men]

Practice Notes - Atlanta
By Micah Roberts


This week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race goes under the lights in Atlanta Sunday for the second to last race until the Chase to Championship begins September 20 in New Hampshire.
This will be the second time the series has visited in Atlanta with the first coming in early March where Kurt Busch thoroughly dominated in what still is his only win of the season.

The practice sessions for the March’s Atlanta race were run in the traditional sense with a Friday practice, then qualifying, and two Saturday practices. This time around, there was no practice on Friday with all activity taking place on Saturday prior to Sunday night’s race in what Atlanta Motor Speedway is calling an experiment.

Saturday’s events began with an hour and half practice session with most teams running in race trim. In the Final practice session, teams mixed up the session with both race trim and qualifying trim for another hour and a half. In the unusual format, their qualifying session will be the final time in their car before the actual race.

The qualifying being so late, with no practice afterwards, could make things difficult early on in the race for the teams that had good practice runs because no matter how precise the notes were for a good set-up, it still takes some tinkering to get perfect from race trim to qualifying trim.

With no practice following qualifying, the tinkering will have to come during the race. Needless to say, there definitely is some added pressure on the crews this week.

Another major factor the crews have to deal with is the track’s temperature change from practice to race day conditions which will drastically change because the start time for Sunday’s race is just before 8:00 pm. The likely result will be more grip, which the drivers will like, but it’s still an unknown which means there will be a lot of guessing in the set-up early on.

At the very end of the final practice session, Juan Pablo Montoya reeled off the fastest lap of 180.105 mph while in qualifying trim driving his favorite car, the one that nearly won at Indy and finished second at Pocono. Nearly every driver used the final moments of final practice to make their qualifying trim runs.

Prior to the late switch for qualifying trim, Ryan Newman had been fastest while in race trim and did so very early. As the heat slicked up the track, all the times for the final practice were much slower than the first session.

During the first session, Jimmie Johnson ran 41 laps with a top speed of 182.807 mph while in race trim using a brand new chassis made special for this race. Just about every team that matters used the first session somewhat in the same fashion like they normally use happy hour for. They ran lots of laps and used the cooler conditions as more of a simulator for what they may see on race day.

Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Kurt Busch rounded out the top-5 fastest laps following Johnson in the first session.

Martin had some trouble the last time they visited Atlanta despite sitting on the pole, but was very fast during both sessions Saturday while in both race and qualifying trim. The car he’s using this week is the same one that won at Darlington and Chicagoland.

Kurt Busch had a real good morning session, but struggled in the afternoon practice saying his car had no grip. He’s bringing the same chassis that he won with in March’s Atlanta race and it’s likely the cooler conditions will get Busch’s car right on race day.

Jeff Gordon had a great first practice with the third fastest average speeds among all drivers to run at least 30 laps. The high banked 1.5-mile tracks have been his best all around combined runs this season capturing a second in Atlanta and a win at Texas.

The second fastest average times in the first practice belonged to Montoya, while the best average speed among those running at least 30 laps belonged to Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Junior brought a brand new chassis and his average times finally make him look like he’s driving a Hendrick car. In the final session, he finished with the 11th fastest time.

Based on how good he looks lap after lap in the longer runs, Junior might have his best opportunity to win a race this season. Should he win, it might be the most fireworks Atlanta has seen since General Sherman marched through there 145 years ago.

First Practice - Top 5 Speeds (more relevant practice)

1. Jimmie Johnson 182.807 mph - AVG 41 laps @ 173.00
2. Mark Martin 182.507 mph - AVG 55 laps @ 172.319
3. Denny Hamlin 181.729 mph - AVG 40 laps @ 172.707
4. Tony Stewart 181.699 mph - AVG 50 laps @ 170.780
5. Kurt Busch 181.639 mph - AVG 39 laps @ 171.954

Final Practice - Top 5 Speeds

1. Ryan Newman 179.866 mph - AVG 25 laps @ 173.041
2. Mark Martin 179.802 mph - AVG 7 laps @ 178.513
3. Brian Vickers 179.330 mph - AVG 41 laps @ 171.983
4. Clint Bowyer 179.278 mph - AVG 12 laps @ 175.955
5. Jeff Gordon 179.272 mph - AVG 20 laps @ 173.010

Top 10 Rated drivers for Sunday night’s Atlanta race heavily based on Saturday’s first practice session, mixed in with the final session, chassis selections, current state of team, and 1.5-mile performances in 2009.

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Mark Martin
3. Kurt Busch
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Juan Pablo Montoya
6. Carl Edwards
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
9. Brian Vickers
10. Ryan Newman