ETHAN LAW

2% NAVY +21.5; MIDDLE TENNESSEE +18.5 and ARMY +5.5
OPINION SELECTION ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE +$850

SUMMARY OF MANHATTAN SYNDICATE NCAA SELECTION:
SYRACUSE +7

NAVY (0-0) Navy Midshipmen at Ohio State Buckeyes OHIO ST (0-0)

Here we go with the first selection and analysis for the 2009 football season. As usual, I am drawn to the rather ugly match-up as upset minded Navy will travel to Columbus to take on the 6th ranked Buckeyes. From the start I will make something incredibly clear, Ohio State WILL win this contest. As usual, the Buckeyes are considered the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten title, but if we really take a look into what is been going on with the program, one could easily conclude that the publics "perception" of this team, is quite at odds with what I believe will be the "reality" of how they finish at the end of the year. Buckeye supports will point to the fact that last season their offense was an impressive 24th in the nation in rushing (192.46 yards per game), while their defense finished last season ranked 18th against the run (110.23 yards given up), 13th in pass efficiency defense (105.23 yards given up), 14th in total defense (293.77 yards given up) and sixth in scoring defense (13.92 points per game allowed). But as the old adage says that was last year and this is now. Indeed, although difficult to believe, this is pretty much a rebuilding year for this National powerhouse. Many of their defensive talent is gone this season and they have needed to rebuild their linebacking corps and have new receivers (which will effect their mediocre passing game even more in the first couple of weeks. They were pretty much a one-dimensional offensive unit last season (running) with sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor (12 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, while using his quick feet to rush for 631 yards). The running backs have speed in Dan Herron (439 yards and 4.9 yards per carry) and Brandon Saine so it is possible they will get to at or near their rushing averages from last season. In contrast, I will admit that Navy is also rebuilding a bit this season, but there is one major difference here. The Navy offensive ideology will not change and they will again be at or near the best in the nation with their powerful rushing offense (298 yards rushing last season); led by quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who ran for 498 yards, 4.7 yards per carry in 2008, plus 212 passing yards.

Now many so called touts will tell you one stat for a reason for this selection and that is the fact that from a technical perspective, Navy comes into this contest at am impressive 21-9 ATS clip as road underdogs since 2000. What they will not tell you is that Ohio State is also an impressive 47-4 SU and 28-19-1 ATS their last 51 home games. However, I guess I will note that Ohio State head coach, Jim Tressel is just 3-8 ATS in his tenure as a favorite of -20 or more versus non-conference opponents. Hmmm...seems like a technical draw here. That's where we will look at the fundamental and situations match-ups to decide which side is the better play. From a fundamental point of view, despite the rebuilding, we know that Ohio State has better athletes across the board, so again I do not believe they will lose those contest. However, preparing for the Navy triple option is nothing short of a nightmare for opposing coaches. But there is a second advantage here. I previously mentioned that Ohio State is a rushing oriented offense. That is great news for us underdog backers because it helps make the clock tick creating less plays per game from both sides hence less scoring opportunities. With effective ball control, the tempo will be at a snails pace (boring game to watch) and baring any significant amount of turnovers this one will be well within the incredibly high number. What makes this even more difficult for Ohio State is the fact that this game is a situational nightmare. They are playing an opponent who would like nothing more than to have the schools biggest win in half a century, while the Buckeyes have to worry about a huge revenge game against mighty USC on deck (a game that will make or break their hopes for a National championship). That is significant to this game as there will no motivation to go for the kill at any point in this contest. Ohio State will not want to show off all their new tricks this week so they will play a very Vanilla offense and just pound the ball with their bigger stronger athletes. The fact that when this same situation occurred last season, (Ohio State beat Ohio 26-14) as a 33-point favorite cements it.

Verdict: Ohio State 28, Navy 17
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON NAVY +21.5


MIDDLE TENN ST (0-0) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Clemson TigersCLEMSON (0-0)

If you followed me last season you might think I have some kind of Sun Belt "fetish" as I continually find countless selections throughout the year to step up and play the team that "on paper" looks like they will get blown away. Well, rest assured there is no fetish and my Sun belt selections have won a lot more then they have lost over the past 9 seasons. What drew me to this selection early last week, was not necessarily Middle Tennessee State (as a team) but rather what I believe is a very deceitful line put out by the odds maker for this matchup. Now for those who have never followed me before, I spend about 25 hours a week going through the board, I am the lead advisor of a betting group, and I look at line value, situation, fundamental unit on unit mismatches, technical data and a litany of other factors before I bet a particular selection. For example, I traditionally handicap the board before even looking at the lines to see where I see "value" in a particular selection. In this contest, I had set the line at 17. When I looked at the opening number of 19.5 I almost fell off my chair. Not surprisingly this line was hit hard in early action moving a full point in about 30 minutes! So whats this mean you might ask? Well everybody knows that 92% of the betting public loses each and every week. That number might sound staggering, but that is the reality of the sports betting world. The "public" sees a BCS team against a team nobody ever heard of. So they will lay anything below 20 for the most part. You see this most often with teams like Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma...ect, ect. The lines maker was begging for Clemson money by setting this line and they got what they wished as the public is betting on Clemson at a 3 to 1 clip as of this writing. Some of you might question why the line moved down. The answer is quit simple. Vegas used to be content on having 50% percent of the public betting on the favorite and 50% on the underdog. Well times have changed and now they actually take sides (gamble so to speak) on what they believe will be the correct side. If anything, we know one of two things by reading this line. 1). The monetary amount of the 25% of the bets placed on the underdog outweights the 75% bet on the favorite by 300%; and 2) the line move occurred shortly after the line was released which means it was hit by powerful betting groups that tend to move the lines when they wager $50k or more on a selection. Either way I want to be on that side.

So you just got a mini handicapping lesson from what I just stated above but rest assured there is also some serious merit to this selection. Middle Tennessee State could be a VERY good team this season as they are returning ten starters, and that doesn't include (possibly NFL bound) quarterback Dwight Dasher. Dasher has his pick of target in a wide receiving core that is arguably the best in the Sun Belt (and the best in many other more predominate conferences), a strong and big offensive line and a backfield loaded with speed for new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin.The implementation of Franklin adds a new dichotomy to this team as he is looking for redemption for his struggle as Auburn last season. Franklin's offensive ideology is nothing new to Middle Tennessee, which has been using a similar version for years. "The transition here has been much easier than at Auburn or Troy because the personnel to run it were already in place." noted Franklin. "We have some very good receivers here, and we'll keep them fresh, using 10-12 in our rotation each game." Meanwhile on the defensive side of the ball the Blue Raiders will be using an attacking defense with a lot of blitzes and stunts. Coordinator Manny Diaz says, "We want to be the team that nobody wants to play." Up front, the Raider starters played in all 12 games last year, with 22 starts and 24 tackles for loss. The defensive unit with the most experience is the secondary, with seven of the top eight defenders returning. Senior Alex Suber and juniors Rod Issac and Jeremy Kellem had 29 starts between them last year, and the hard-hitting Kevin Brown started the last 10 games of 2008 at free safety. Meanwhile, Clemson is coming off a very disappointing campaign last season but admittedly they did get better when coach Dabo Swinney took over in midseason. They have a new offensive coordinator in Billy Napier and also a new quarterback in redshirt freshman Kyle Parker. At a shade under 6-foot, Parker has been prone to have a decent number of passes batted down at the line of scrimmage in practice. The ground game has senior runningback C.J. Spiller (629 yards, 5.4 yards per carry), while the defense was their strength, allowing just 16 points per game. They lost both starting safeties, but the line is very good, for Kevin Steele, the new defensive coordinator.

Why Middle Tennessee you ask? As stated above the Clemson defense will be good if not great. However, is anybody really interested in laying 18.5 points against a team that was mediocre last season, has a new coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator and a new quarterback? They have to play against a team that is improved, dangerous and has a coaching staff that is very familiar with the Clemson Program. Indeed, Blue Raider Head Coach and several of their staff either played and/or coached at Clemson. Stockstill was a Clemson assistant coach from 1989 through 2002, with duties that included coordinating the offense as well as recruiting. Middle Tennessee defensive line and associated head coach Les Herrin and safeties coach David Bibee are former Clemson assistants. Oh I almost forgot to mention, Middle Tennessee has been extremely tough in non-conference play, upsetting Maryland last year (24-14) and losing 20-14 at Kentucky. Two years ago they lost 39-34 at Alabama in the opener as a +17 underdog. Wooof Woooof as this dog has some BITE!

Verdict: Clemson 21, Middle Tennessee State 24
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE +18.5;
OPINION SELECTION ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE +$850

Syndicate play: The first play the syndicate collectively bet this week was SYRACUSE +7! The Orangeman opened as a 7 point home underdog. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $30,000 wager on Syracuse +7. Within a few hours adjustments were made to the line across the board as most shops20moved the number off the 7 to 6.5,despite there being a better than 3 to 1 ratio on bets for the visiting favorite. The line has since gone back up to 7 in most shops.

Ethan's thoughts: Two of the three advisors flagged Syracuse early in the week including myself. I would put a caveat that this selection is certainly not for the faith at heart as I believe this game certainly does have the possibly of going incredibly bad and incredibly fast. Despite that fact, the group believes that this game is the MOST important game for the once proud Syracuse program. New Syracuse starting quarterback Greg Paulus has been surprisingly sharp in practices, knows what he?s doing, and moves like a Duke point guard he once was. Paulus has the weapons and the personnel at wide receiver to exploit a susceptible Minnesota secondary. It also does not hurt that Minnesota is a poor 9-18 SU on the road the last five seasons. Finally, it should be noted that the line has moved back to where it opened yet the public support in favor of Minnesota is at a shocking 89% at the time of this writing!

SYNDICATE PLAY: SYRACUSE +7