The Fighting Irish, with coach Charlie Weis facing a critical season if he hopes to remain on the job, open the 2009 campaign with a home contest against Nevada.
Notre Dame went 7-6 SU and ATS last year, barely managing to reach a bowl game after losing its last two regular-season games – a 24-23 home upset as a 19½-point home chalk against lowly Syracuse, followed by a 38-3 whitewashing as an overwhelming 33½-point underdog at Southern Cal. The Irish managed to finish on a high note, with a 49-21 rout of Hawaii as a 2½-point favorite in the Hawaii Bowl, the school’s first postseason win in 15 years.
The Irish have junior QB Jimmy Clausen returning off a season in which he completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 3,174 yards, with 25 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Golden Tate had 1,080 receiving yards and a team-leading 11 TDs.
Nevada also went 7-6 SU but was just 5-7 ATS in 2008, failing to cover in its last three games (1-2 SU), including a 42-35 loss to Maryland as a 2½-point chalk in the Humanitarian Bowl. Dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick returns after throwing for 2,479 yards and rushing for another 1,103 last year, accounting for 35 TDs (19 passing, 16 rushing) while throwing just five INTs.
The Irish have cashed in five of their last seven as a favorite, but they are on ATS slides of 1-5 in season openers, 6-13 at home, 3-7 in September and 2-9 laying more than 10 points, and Weis’ troops are 1-6 ATS as a double-digit home chalk since 2006. The Wolf Pack haven’t been much better from a wagering perspective, carrying negative ATS streaks of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as a pup, 3-8 on the highway and 5-11 as a road ‘dog of more than 10. Nevada is also just 4-9 ATS its last 13 non-conference road contests.
The over is 4-0-1 in Notre Dame’s last five home games, and the over for Nevada is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 6-0 when the Pack are a road ‘dog of more than 10 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(13) Georgia at (9) Oklahoma State
A battle between the Southeastern Conference and the Big 12 takes place in Stillwater when the Cowboys play host to Georgia.
Oklahoma State is coming off a solid season, going 9-4 SU and 8-4 ATS in 2008. However, the Pokes lost their last two games SU and ATS, falling to archrival Oklahoma 61-41 as a 10-point home pup, then losing 42-31 to Oregon as a one-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. The Cowboys have three major offensive threats back, in QB Zac Robinson (3,068 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs), RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and wideout Dez Bryant (87 catches, 1,482 yards, 19 TDs). Robinson, who completed 65 percent of his passes in 2008, also rushed for 561 yards and eight TDs.
Georgia went 10-3 SU but just 4-7-1 ATS in 2008, failing to cash in its final four regular-season games before beating Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point favorite in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. The Bulldogs, who entered last year as the top-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, who were both taken in the first round of the NFL draft, with Stafford going No. 1 overall. But coach Mark Richt has an experienced, if not tested, QB in redshirt senior Joe Cox.
These two teams met two years ago in the season opener in Athens, Ga., with the Bulldogs rolling to a 35-14 victory as a 6½-point favorite.
After cashing in their first eight games last year, the Cowboys finished on an 0-4 ATS skid (1-3 SU). However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 at home, 6-0 as a home chalk (5-0 last year) and 41-20-2 overall as a favorite. The Bulldogs, despite ending 2008 on a 1-4 ATS slide, are on spread-covering streaks of 5-1 outside the SEC and 7-1 as a road pup (4-0 last four). They are also 15-8 ATS in their last 23 roadies overall, and they are on an 18-3 SU tear on the highway.
The under is 23-8 in Georgia’s last 31 September starts, but the over is on tears of 5-0 with the Bulldogs getting points, 29-9 with Oklahoma State at home and 17-5 with the Cowboys as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
San Jose State at (4) USC
Perennial national championship contender Southern Cal opens the 2009 campaign at the Los Angeles Coliseum against the Spartans.
USC, a double-digit favorite in every game last season, went 12-1 SU but a more middling 7-6 ATS, capping it off with a 38-24 Rose Bowl victory over Penn State as a 10-point chalk. The Trojans enter this year on a 10-game SU win streak (5-5 ATS) following their shocking 27-21 road loss to Oregon State as a whopping 24-point favorite. With QB Mark Sanchez darting to the NFL, Pete Carroll has opted to start true freshman Matt Barkley under center.
San Jose State went 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS last year, limping to the finish line by losing four of its last five SU and failing to cash in all five contests after opening the season 5-2 SU (5-1 ATS). The Spartans have senior QB Kyle Reed returning, though he had a nondescript junior campaign, completing 63.7 percent of his passes but netting just 1,537 yards, with nine TDs against six INTs.
The Trojans are on ATS upticks of 23-6 outside the Pac-10, 35-17 at the Coliseum and 8-2 in non-conference home games, and Carroll’s troops went 3-1 ATS last year as a chalk of 30 or more. USC has also won 11 straight season openers (7-4 ATS). The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five September starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests, but along with their current 0-5 ATS skid, they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 as a pup and 2-6 catching more than 10 points on the road.
The under for USC is on stretches of 17-6-1 overall, 16-5-1 at home, 4-0 in September and 21-8-1 as a favorite. Likewise, the under for San Jose State is on runs of 23-8-1 overall, 8-1 with the Spartans as a road pup and 6-2 in non-conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Missouri vs. Illinois
(at St. Louis)
Missouri and the Fighting Illini make the trek to the Edward Jones Dome for the third straight year for a Big 12-Big Ten battle between border rivals.
Missouri went 10-4 SU but just 5-8 ATS in the 2008 campaign, going 2-7 ATS in its final nine games, including pointspread setbacks in its last three contests (1-2 SU). The Tigers, who won the Big 12 North, finished the season with a 30-23 overtime victory against Northwestern as a heavy 14-point favorite in the Alamo Bowl. Missouri lost star QB Chase Daniel (4,335 passing yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs) and wideout Jeremy Maclin (95 catches, 1,221 yards, 12 TDs) from that squad. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert will take the reins.
Illinois lost its last three games SU and ATS to finish 5-7 SU and 4-7 ATS in coach Ron Zook’s fourth season, including a pair of upset losses to Western Michigan (23-17 as a 7½-point home chalk) and Northwestern (27-10 as a three-point favorite) to end the season. Mobile senior QB Juice Williams (3,173 passing yards, 22 TD passes; 719 rushing yards, 5 TDs) returns to lead the Illini’s explosive offense.
Missouri is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including a 52-42 win in a shootout in St. Louis last year, as the Tigers barely covered the 9½-point spread.
Under coach Gary Pinkel, the Tigers are on a 10-3 ATS tear in non-conference action, and they are on further spread-covering runs of 5-0 on turf, 6-1 in September and 4-1 against the Big Ten. The Illini have covered four of their last five September starts but are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 0-5 outside the Big Ten, 0-4 against the Big 12 and 0-4 at neutral sites.
The over for Missouri is on streaks of 26-10 as an underdog, 6-0 on turf and 5-1 in September, and the over for Illinois is on upswings of 5-1 on turf and 13-6 in September. Finally, the past two meetings in this rivalry soared over the posted price, as the two teams combined for 74 points in 2007 before last year’s 94-point outburst.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
(20) BYU vs. (3) Oklahoma
(at Dallas)
The Sooners begin their quest for a return trip to the BCS championship game as they travel to the sparkling new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas to take on Brigham Young.
Oklahoma is coming off a 12-2 SU and 10-3 ATS effort, but the season ended on a sour note with a 24-14 loss to Florida as a 4½-point ‘dog in the national title game Jan. 8 in Miami. That loss snapped a 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) roll that got the Sooners into the BCS final. Star QB Sam Bradford, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, returns after completing 67.9 percent of his passes last year for 4,719 yards with a whopping 50 TDs against just eight INTs. The Sooners averaged 51.1 points per game in 2008.
BYU went 10-3 SU last year but wasn’t nearly as successful at the betting window, with a 3-9 ATS mark. The Cougars covered just once in their last nine games and ended the year with a 31-21 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Arizona as a three-point underdog. QB Max Hall is coming off a big junior season, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 3,955 yards with 35 TDs and 14 INTs.
Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Sooners are on spread-covering sprees of 6-0 as a chalk, 9-1 in September and 7-2 in non-conference play, and Bob Stoops’ troops are 9-0 ATS in their last nine regular-season tilts outside the Big 12. Oklahoma is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games laying double digits, including 4-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk away from Norman.
The Cougars are on ATS skids of 1-6 outside the Mountain West and 1-4 as an underdog, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five September games.
The over for Oklahoma is on streaks of 12-2 overall, 10-3 in non-conference play and 8-3 in September, and four of BYU’s last five games in 2008 topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER
(7) Virginia Tech vs. (5) Alabama
(at Atlanta)
Perhaps the biggest game of opening weekend pits the Crimson Tide against Virginia Tech in a neutral-site, non-conference clash at the Georgia Dome.
Alabama rolled up wins in its first 12 games last year (9-3 ATS) in claiming the SEC West title, but finished the year by losing its last two games SU and ATS. The Tide fell to eventual national champion Florida 31-20 as a 10-point pup in the SEC title game, then got upset by unbeaten Utah in the Sugar Bowl, losing 31-17 as a 9½-point favorite.
Alabama lost QB John Parker Wilson (2,096 passing yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs), but the bigger loss is probably RB Glen Coffee (1,342 yards, 10 TDs, 6.1 ypc). QB Greg McElroy, with just 20 collegiate passing attempts, moves into the starting role for the Tide, and RB Mark Ingram (747 yards, 12 TDs, 7.7 ypc) also returns.
Virginia Tech is coming off a 10-4 campaign (6-7 ATS), winning their last four games (2-2 ATS). The Hokies capped the regular season with a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point chalk in the ACC title game in Tampa, Fla., then dropped Cincinnati 20-7 as a 2½-point pup in the Orange Bowl.
QB Tyrod Taylor returns to lead Va-Tech after rushing for 738 yards and seven scores, while throwing for another 896 yards (2 TDs, 6 INTs). However, leading rusher Darren Evans (1,113 yards, 10 TDs, 4.3 ypc) tore his left ACL in practice last month and is out for the year.
The Crimson Tide cashed in their first five roadies last year before the two-game skid to end the season, and Alabama is on a 5-1 ATS run as a chalk. The Hokies are on a 10-3 ATS roll as an underdog, but they are on spread-covering skids of 2-8 outside the ACC and 2-7 in September.
The over has hit in eight of Alabama’s last 11 September games, but the under is on stretches of 7-2 overall for the Tide, 6-2 with ‘Bama favored, 5-1 overall for Va-Tech and 4-1 for the Hokies in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Maryland at (12) California
Two teams coming off winning bowl appearances get together for the second straight year, this time at Memorial Stadium where the Golden Bears will host Maryland.
California is coming off a 9-4 SU and ATS effort, including a 24-17 victory over Miami, Fla., in the Emerald Bowl, though it failed to cover as a healthy 10-point chalk after ending the regular season on a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU). QB Kevin Riley (1,345 yards passing, 14 TDs, 6 INTs) took the majority of the snaps last year, though the departed Nate Longshore also saw a lot of action.
The key for the Bears, though, is the return of standout RB Jahvid Best, who piled up 1,409 rushing yards and 13 TDs, averaging a whopping 8.1 ypc. Shane Vereen, Cal’s second leading rusher last year with 678 yards (5.1 ypc), also returns.
Maryland fended off Nevada in a high-scoring Humanitarian Bowl 42-35 as a 2½-point pup last December, finishing the year 8-5 SU (6-6 ATS), though it cashed in just two of its last six games. QB Chris Turner (2,518 passing yards, 13 TDs, 11 INTs) is back for his third year as a starter, and top RBs Da’Rel Scott (980 yards, 6 TDs, 5.0 ypc) and Davin Meggett (418 yards, 4 TDs, 5.6 ypc) also return for the Terrapins.
These two teams met last September, with the Terps scoring a 35-27 upset victory as a heavy 14-point home underdog.
The Golden Bears were a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home last year, all from the favorite’s role, and they are on further ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 laying points and 4-1 in September. Cal is also 4-1 in its last five as a double-digit chalk.
Maryland is on ATS upswings of 5-1 catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in September, but the Terrapins also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 on the road and 2-5 as a road pup.
The over for Cal is on tears of 8-3-1 outside the Pac-10 and 16-7 when the Bears are a home favorite, and last year’s clash with Maryland barely cleared the 61-point total. On the flip side, the under for Maryland is on runs of 13-6 overall, 8-1 on the road and 7-3 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA
(11) LSU at Washington
Perennial SEC power LSU makes the trek to the Pacific Northwest to open the season against the Huskies, who are coming off a winless season.
LSU went 8-5 SU last year but was a dismal 3-9 ATS, failing to cash in six straight games (2-4 SU) before finally bouncing back in the season-ending Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a 38-3 blowout of Georgia Tech as a four-point underdog. Jarrett Lee (1,873 yards passing, 13 TDs, 16 INTs) started most of last season, but sophomore Jordan Jefferson overtook Lee on the depth chart this year and will start at QB. Leading rusher Charles Scott (1,109 yards, 15 TDs, 5.5 ypc) is back for the Tigers, as well.
Washington was awful on all counts last year, going 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS, costing Ty Willingham his job and ushering in former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian as the new head coach. Nine of the Huskies’ losses came by double digits, including eight by 20 points or more. QB Jake Locker, who started four games last year before breaking his thumb, is back to lead the offense. Starting RB Chris Polk also returns as a redshirt freshman after missing all but two games last year due to injuries.
The Tigers are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a chalk and 0-6 laying more than 10 points, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 20-8 in non-conference play and 15-6-1 as a road favorite. The Huskies carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 18-39-2 overall, 15-31 at home (1-6 last year), 0-8 as an underdog and 0-5 getting points at home.
The over for LSU is on stretches of 15-6 overall, 9-3 on the highway and 12-5 as chalk, and the over for Washington is on surges of 8-3 at home and 5-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (73-61) at Tampa Bay (72-62)
The Tigers look to take another step closer to the A.L. Central title when they send Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.05 ERA) to the Tropicana Field mound against Rays ace James Shields (9-10, 3.86).
Detroit followed up a three-game home sweep of the Indians with Friday’s 4-3, come-from-behind victory over the Rays, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth inning. Not only have the Tigers won four in a row, but they’re 14-7 in their last 21 (5-3 on the road) and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. On the downside, Jim Leyland’s squad is in slumps of 7-15 on the highway, 21-44 on the road against winning teams, 3-7 on Saturday and65-16 on field turf.
Tampa Bay is just 3-6 in its last nine games, including splitting a four-game set in Detroit last weekend. The Rays remain on positive runs of 37-16 at home, 73-27 at home versus right-handed starters, 49-16 in the second game of a series and 15-2 on Saturday.
These teams have meet 12 times since last August, with the host winning eight of those contests, and the Rays are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with Detroit at Tropicana Field.
Galarraga hasn’t started a game since Aug. 22 in Oakland, when he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings, but Detroit fell, 3-2. Behind Galarraga, the Tigers are in ruts of 1-7 overall, 1-4 as a visitor and 0-4 on Saturday. The young right-hander is 2-6 with a 5.65 ERA in 11 road starts, with Detroit going 3-8. Also, Galarraga faced the Rays twice last year, allowing one run in seven innings of a 6-5 loss at Tampa Bay, then surrendering five runs in 7 2/3 innings at home, but the Tigers prevailed, 7-5.
Shields earned an 11-7 victory at Detroit on Monday despite yielding five runs (four earned) on 10 hits in seven innings. The right-hander is now 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers, with Tampa Bay winning all five contests. Shields has won his last two starts – both on the road – after going 1-4 in his previous five outings. He’s 4-6 in 15 home starts this season despite a solid 3.35 ERA. The Rays have dropped Shields’ last five outings at The Trop.
For the Tigers, the under is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-2 on Saturday, 7-2 with Galarraga on the hill and 9-2 when Galarraga works on the road. Meanwhile, the under is 20-7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 29 games against the A.L. Central and 8-2-2 in its last 12 versus right-handed starters.
Inside the lines 9/5
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