Robert Ferringo 9/5
Robert Ferringo's
Saturday College Football Selections
4.5-Unit Play. Take #188 California (-21) over Maryland (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
0.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #188 Cal (-13) over Maryland (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
This game should be a god damn bloodbath. Maryland lost nearly half of its team last year. That’s not an exaggeration. They lost 45 percent of their lettermen from last year’s squad and saw 30 seniors graduate. In fact, 58 of Maryland’s players still have three years of elgibility left. That is a laughably young team. And now they are on the road, in a rowdy stadium for a night game, against an extremely veteran team with 15 returning starters, 10 senior starters, several All-American’s and a bad chip on its shoulder. All of that spells trouble and it spells blowout to me. Cal suffered a stunning 35-27 loss as a 14-point favorite last year at Maryland in a game that kicked off at 9 a.m. PST. It clearly impacted the Bears, who were down 28-6 heading into the fourth quarter. But that’s what sticks out to me. First, oddsmakers only swung the line seven points for the adjustment of venue? That seems light. Second, that means that once Cal woke up they outscored Maryland 21-7 and had several other opportunities to tie the game. Finally, when you factor in revenge and the disparity in youth and experience this one has blowout written all over it. Bears big this weekend.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #180 Texas A&M (-14) over New Mexico (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
0.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #180 Texas A&M (-8) over New Mexico (7 p.m., Sat., Sept. 5)
This is a game that I think can get a bit ugly. The Aggies actually won in Albuqurque by six points last year and that was a much better Lobos squad. New Mexico only brought back nine starters, including erratic and inconsistent quarterback Donovan Porterie, who I am not a fan of. They also have a new coach, new coordinators, and a completely different offensive systems as they shift to more of a pass-happy attack. That’s good and all, but their quarterback is a turnover machine and a lack of proven skill players. Texas A&M is 20-1 in home openers since 1988 but they lost at home last year to Arkansas State in Mike Sherman’s first game at the helm. They will remember that and I know they won’t want another embarrassment at home against a weaker opponent. A&M has a bye week following this game so they aren’t looking forward to anything. I think they are going to step out and lay on a big number against one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.
3-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (-5.5) over Rice (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
This line was the first one that I noticed when the college football spreads came out and I absolutely loved it as a ‘pick’ game. Apparently, so does everyone else because it’s been bet up nearly six points. We have to fade Rice in this spot in a letdown spot after last year’s incredible season. They lost two of the program’s best players every in Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard and this year they welcome back only four offensive starters. UAB, on the other hand, has all 11 offensive starters back and 18 starters total. That includes a whopping seven three-year starters on the offensive side. This is coach Neil Callaway’s third year with his system and that is usually the season where everything takes off. UAB quarterback Joe Webb is likely the best player on the field and the dual threat senior should have enough to lead his team to a win here.
3-Unit Play. Take #162 Illinois (-6.5) over Missouri (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
I don’t know if any team in the country lost as much as Missouri did. They bid farewell to three of the best players in the school’s history in Chase Daniels, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman as well as seven All-Big-12 defenders. This team is completely starting over. And on the other side of the field is an Illinois team that fought very gamely last year in a 52-42 loss. And don’t think that the Illini don’t remember how Mizzou rang up those 52 points. This is a fledgling rivalry in the area. And this is the last meeting that these two teams are going to have, as the schools decided not to keep it going, and I think that Illinois is going to want to lay the wood to give Missouri something to remember them by. The Illini had significantly weaker teams than Missouri in 2007 and 2008 and only lost by six and by 10. Not bad. But now the Illini are the ones with the upper hand in terms of experience and talent.
2-Unit Play. Take #147 Akron (+27) over Penn State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
It’s always tough going against JoePa because he’s one of those coaches that is notorious for trying to cover the spread. But that aside I think that this could be a decent spot for a feisty Akron team. This Nittany Lions team is nearly completely new. They have just nine returning starters and are breaking in some raw players in key spots. All three of their wideouts are new starters. That should at least slow down Penn State’s high-powered attack just a little. Their offensive line is pretty new as well, with three new starters, so I don’t expect domination right from the start. But the key thing here is that Penn State’s weakness is in the secondary and Akron is a team that can throw the rock. The Zips have a three-year starter at quarterback and bring back all three starting wideouts from last season. They also have four returning starters from their offensive line, including three three-year starters. The defense is pretty weak. And Evan Royster should have a day. But I just think that Akron will be able to score enough points to keep this one respectable. Since 2006 Akron is 2-7 SU in games against BCS teams. But they are a solid 6-3 ATS in those games. They are also 0-11 in their last 11 games against the Big 10 but they have only lost those games by an average of 25 points. That includes an 18-point loss at Penn State in 2006, an 18-point loss at Ohio State in 2007, and a 21-point loss at Wisconsin last year. That’s not bad. They also covered an 11-point line at home against a very good Cincinnati club last year. I’ll see if we can’t take advantage of that young Penn State secondary and passing game and keep this one within the spread.
2-Unit Play. Take #156 Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
I’m going with talent on the field over coaching in this one. It is so tough to bet against Mark Richt in an opponent’s stadium. But there is just a lot working in the favor of Oklahoma State here. They have three All-American first teamers on their offense, and that doesn’t even count stud quarterback Zac Robinson. Conversely, Georgia will need a little time to get over the loss of No. 1 draft picks QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshown Moreno. Georgia’s defense is legit. And they regained some strength on the offensive and defensive lines. But last year they weren’t that impressive in a 17-point win over Arizona State on the road in their big nonconference away game. And it isn’t like Oklahoma State hasn’t played against teams the caliber of Georgia before. Oklahoma State has some revenge in mind after getting worked over 35-14 in the season opener in Athens. And this year I think that OSU’s talent on offense is just going to be too much for UGA and its new quarterback to overcome.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Two exceptional defenses and two subpar quarterbacks equals an ‘under’ in my book. This is one of the marquee games of the weekend and I can see it being a slugfest. Neither offense is stacked with playmakers and the defenses are probably in the Top 10 in the country. Both coaches know how important this game is so I expect them to be a little conservative, and none of the players want to be the guy that makes the big mistake. With all of the talent that was on the field in the Georgia Dome on offense last year (and a weaker Clemson defense then than this Tech defense now) there was still only 44 points scored in that game. Eight of Tech’s 14 games last year saw less than 38 points scored in it and two more had 40 and 42.Alabama played over that mark in nine of their 14 games but that was with a much more experienced offensive attack, including a three-year starter at quarterback and a very good running back. I see this one played in the teens or maybe a 23-10-type game and I think it stays ‘under’.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #167 Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
We have to go with experience here. It might be a new era of Syracuse football but that still doesn’t change the fact that they have still been one of the sorriest programs in the country over the last couple years. Now they are starting Greg Paulus at quarterback. I’m sorry, but I’m not a Paulus believer. Minnesota has 18 starters back from a bowl team last year, including a veteran quarterback and potential All American receiver Eric Decker. The Gophers just have a much better sense of who they are and that should make the difference here. Syracuse is just 1-6 in its last seven home openers and had lost their last six nonconference home games against BCS teams by an average of 18 points per. The Orange lost six of their top 10 tacklers and they just don’t have the talent right now. Last year they lost three of their first four home games by 14 (Akron), 42 (Penn State), and 10 (Pitt). Two years ago they lost by 30 in their home opener to an eventual 4-9 Washington team and then came back two weeks later to get pasted by 21 at home to Illinois. The Dome is going to be rocking. But Minnesota is used to playing on turf. I’m backing their experience here and although I do expect a close game I think the Gophers end up winning by 10.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #173 Toledo (+10.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
Toledo is a team that can make some noise in the MAC and this is an awful generous number against a Purdue team that is really starting over. Even with really good Purdue teams, the Boilers have struggled against the MAC in recent years. They did not cover against Central Michigan in 2008, covered by just two points against them in 2007, and then went 0-3 ATS against Akron (2005), Miami, OH and Ball State (2006). That’s a dicey 1-4 ATS and the only blowout they have had against a MAC team in the past four years was a 52-24 win over – Toledo. I think the that Rockets will be taken a little lightly by Purdue because of that. But Toledo is one of the more veteran teams in the country. Don’t forget that this Rockets club won in The Big House last year over Michigan, lost by just one point to No. 25 Fresno State, were down just 3-0 to Ball State at the half, and lost by Central Michigan by just one point. Toledo has nine three-year starters and some quality depth. I think that they avoid their road woes here and are competitive in a high-scoring game.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #170 Eastern Michigan (-5.5) over Army (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Army has a new coach, a new defense, a freshman quarterback, and is playing against a team set for revenge. On the other side, Eastern Michigan has a solid veteran quarterback, three-year starter Andy Schmitt, and nine of their 17 returning starters have been starters fro three years. Last year the Eagles led Army 13-10 late in the game but gave up a late touchdown for a tough loss. That was one of three losses in the second half of the season by a touchdown or less. So although this team finished 3-9 they were justa few plays away from being a 5- or 6-win team. They even sprung a huge upset of rival Central Michigan to close the season. Army has lost 12 straight season openers, including a 28-point loss to Temple last year, an 8-point loss to Akron in 2007 and an 8-point loss at Arkansas State in 2006. Not exactly powerhouses that were beating them.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #186 UTEP (-1.5) over Buffalo (9 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5) AND Take #188 California (-14) over Maryland (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
This line has skyrocketed since word of James Starks’ injury for the Bulls. Starks was one of the best running backs in the school’s brief history and by far their best offensive player back this year. Now the Bulls will head to Texas without their quarterback and stud runner from last year’s team. Buffalo is yet another team that had a dreamy 2008 and now is going to come back to earth somewhat in 2009. UTEP got rolled 42-17 last year in Buffalo. However, that was actually a 14-14 game with less than a minute left in the half before the Bulls hit the jets. UTEP might have been looking ahead to a bit-time game with Texas at home the next week. They won’t be looking past Buffalo this year and they again have some revenge on the brain. UTEP has 15 returning starters, including nine three-year starters, and an excellent passing game. They will have their hands full with a talented Buffalo secondary. But the Bulls defense was erratic, at best, last year.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #194 UCLA (-12.5) over San Diego State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5) AND Take #180 Texas A&M (-7) over New Mexico (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Note: I actually like this UCLA game much more than the grading (I wanted to play it as a straight-up pick) but I think the odds are that they are going to reschedule the game due to the California wildfires. So I didn't want to get on this game too big only to have to have the ticket be refunded. However, if they do happen to play it's a game I definitely want my money on.
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