Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack
Matchup: Navy at Ohio State
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Navy (+22.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Navy (+) over OHIO ST - These two last met in a rain soaked 1981 Liberty Bowl. Ohio St has covered 5 straight home openers but this time has a massive game against USC on deck. Last year the week before USC they trailed going into the 4Q vs Ohio as a 33’ pt favorite. OSU is 5-10 ATS vs non-conf and Navy is 6-3 ATS in road openers. OSU lost 2 LB’s and 2 CB’s to the NFL and projected starter Moeher, but still has a very athletic defensive front 7. Last year Navy had just 12 FD’s vs Pitt and 11 vs ND and in both games got the majority of their yards and pts vs the backups. OSU lost RB Wells prior to USC so they probably won’t take chances late and if their minds wander ahead to USC, the Mids will keep trying until the end and could get some big plays. They are 14-4 ATS as an AD.
Matchup: W. Michigan at Michigan
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Michigan (-11.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
MICHIGAN Over W Michigan - Michigan has been upset in their last 2 home openers (App St & Utah) after having won the previous 9. UM is 24-1 SU (0-5 ATS run) vs the MAC and we mention that because their one loss was last year to Toledo. UM is 4-11 ATS in their 1st lined game of the season. These two last met in ‘01 & ‘02 (UM 2-0 ATS). Michigan has a huge game vs ND on deck but must take every opponent seriously after a 3-9 season including that upset loss to Toledo a team that also finished just 3-9 LY. Here they take on a 9-4 WM team that went to a bowl while the Wolves were home for the holidays. WM has talent but it is very inexperienced on D with just 3 starters back and Michigan avg just 20.3 ppg LY but should have one of the most improved offenses in the country led by new starting QB Forcier (PS#16). Expect a fully focused Michigan squad. While Cubit has knocked off 3 BCS teams in 4 years he has dropped his last two openers to WV and Neb by 30.5 ppg. WM may hold some stuff back for a more winnable game next week at Indy.
Matchup: No. Illinois at Wisconsin
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Wisconsin (-16.0 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
WISCONSIN over N Illinois - Wisconsin has won 13 straight Camp Randall openers by an avg of 20 ppg. The Badgers are off a 7-6 season and have just 11 returning starters but are under some pressure after 10 losses the last two years when Badger fans were expecting BCS. Last year NIll was a veteran squad with 21 ret sts and this year have just 11 back. NIll has lost 5 straight openers to BCS teams but only lost by 14 ppg to the 4 from the Big Ten. In 2007 UW did roll to a 44-3 win here but that was late in the year vs an injury ravaged team. Northern’s emphasis should be staying healthy here and last year Wisky could have mauled Akron but gave up a cheap TD at the end of the 1H and a garbage TD with :38 left and only won by 21 (-26’) and won’t be as generous here.
Matchup: New Mexico at Texas AM
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas AM (-14 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
TEXAS A&M over New Mexico - LY vs NM, A&M was outgained (236-370) but won the TO battle (+3) in Mike Sherman’s 1st victory as the Aggies HC 28-22 on the road. A&M is 20-1 S/‘88 in home openers, but lost LY to ASU. NMex looks to be in a rebuilding year with just 9 starters back and a new HC and schemes on both sides of the ball. A&M will be much improved with 16 ret starters and now is in Sherman’s 2nd year. A&M is off a disastrous 4-8 year and should want to gain confidence with big early season wins and has the schedule to accomplish that. LY A&M’s 10 returning starters were upset by Ark St in the opener and expect a defense which allowed 462 ypg and 5.2 ypc to dominate a New Mexico offense that is switching to a pass oriented scheme. The Aggies have a bye next week and will hold nothing back.
Matchup: Connecticut at Ohio
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Ohio (+4 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Ohio University (+) Over Conn - Take an 8-5 Big East team that won its bowl 38-20 over the MAC Champs and pit them against a lowly 4-8 MAC team to beat and note that the Big East tm won their only previous meeting 37-19 in ‘02 and you would expect the BE team a 2 or 3 TD favorite. Delving a little deeper we see an upset here. Ohio is 5-1 SU in home openers and knocked off Pitt here in Solich’s 1st year. Ohio is a team that opened 0-4 LY but could easily have been 4-0 at that point which would have made them an 8-4 team instead of 4-8. OU is 11-6 ATS at home. Last year UC needed OT to get past MAC member Temple on the road. Ohio only has NT on deck and should be sky high while UC will be looking ahead to NCar and Baylor the next 2 weeks. While UC is a veteran group they lose their star off player in Donald Brown (2,083 rush) and the ret skill players combined (incl the QB) do not equal his numbers. OU was an injury plagued team in ‘08 and that makes them even more exp than their 14 ret sts.
Matchup: Buffalo at Texas-El Paso
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas-El Paso (-9.5 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
UTEP over Buffalo - These two teams are going in different directions. Buffalo was the MAC Champ last year and does have 14 ret sts including super RB Starks but loses QB Willy and caught a lot of breaks LY to get that title. UTEP could have been a bowl squad but had a couple of tough losses to finish just 5-7. They have one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Trevor Vittatoe and they also have 15 ret sts. Last year these two met in Buffalo and it was close until Buf got a 34 yd TD pass with :30 left in the half (1 play after 4th down conv) to take the lead and romped in the 2H. It was an unusual trip north for UTEP who were preoccupied by the biggest home game in their history (Texas) which was played the following week. This year it will be a strange trip to the Southwest for Buffalo and UTEP is playing with legitimate revenge. ST and defense are close but UTEP has a large edge on off (#41 vs #112).
Member Plays
Matchup: Missouri at Illinois
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Illinois (-6.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Illinois over Missouri (St Louis) - The Illini were just 5-7 last year and Missouri was the Big 12 North Champs but these two are vastly different teams. Illinois could go to a BCS bowl and Missouri is the least experienced team in the country. These two have met in St Louis each of the last 3 years with the Tigers winning by an avg of 38-30 and covering all 3 by just 2 ppg. Illinois has veteran senior QB Juice Williams and one of the most explosive offenses in the country along with a much improved defense. Missouri has an untested QB after Chase Daniel led them to all 3 wins over Illinois and just 9 starters back. History says Missouri but this year’s talent says Illinois is the stronger team and gets a more comfortable win than expected.
Wisconsin has won 13 straight Camp Randall openers by an avg of 20 ppg. The Badgers are off a 7-6 season and have just 11 returning starters but are under some pressure after 10 losses the last two years when Badger fans were expecting BCS. Last year NIll was a veteran squad with 21 ret sts and this year have just 11 back. NIll has lost 5 straight openers to BCS teams but only lost by 14 ppg to the 4 from the Big Ten. In 2007 UW did roll to a 44-3 win here but that was late in the year vs an injury ravaged team. Northern’s emphasis should be staying healthy here and last year Wisky could have mauled Akron but gave up a cheap TD at the end of the 1H and a garbage TD with :38 left and only won by 21 (-26’) and won’t be as generous here.
Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack 9/5
Reply With Quote