Except as noted, the following college games will be played on Saturday, September 5.
COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK - Georgia + 6 over OKLAHOMA STATE - Much of the concern for Georgia backers is the loss of QB Stafford and RB Moreno to the NFL as well as the replacement of nearly half the defensive starters from last season. But Georgia does not rebuild, they reload. And under coach Richt the Bulldogs have excelled in non-SEC play and on the road. This is only the second time under Richt that Georgia has been an underdog in a regular season non-conference game! They upset Georgia Tech on the road in Richt's first season as Bulldog boss. Including SEC and Bowl games Georgia is 4-1 both straight up and ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Oklahoma State is developing into a solid program under coach Gundy but they are not yet at the elite level where they should be laying nearly a TD to a proven power. They lost at Georgia 35-14 to open the 2007 season. And against the elite teams within their own Big 12 conference Okie State has lost 6 straight to Oklahoma and 11 straight to Texas. Perhaps they win here but the difference between a good Big 12 program and even a rebuilding SEC elite program is too great. Georgia wins 27-20.
FEATURED COLLEGE SELECTIONS -
AUBURN - 13 over Louisiana Tech - Auburn is another top flight SEC program but one that is looking to rebound after a rare losing season. The Tigers were 5-7 in 2008 following 6 straight seasons of 8 or more wins including their perfect 13-0 season in 2004. They changed coaches and brought in former D-coordinator Gene Chizik who had success in that position at several stops before failing as head coach of Iowa State the past two seasons. They lured away outstanding O-coordinator Malzahn from Tulsa so both sides of the ball figure to be much improved this season as the talent level is still high on both sides of the football. Louisiana Tech is an improving team that could contend in the WAC. They are coached by the son of ex-Georgia coach Dooley and Derek should be at the major college level within a few years. Tech did upset an SEC team last season, opening with a 22-14 shocker at Mississippi State. Tech has played Auburn tough over the years but has lost all 6 meetings since 1990 although they are 3-3 ATS. But they will be facing a highly motivated and athletically superior team eager to atone for last season's failings. Chizik will seek to justify his hiring over the also-interviewed Dooley. Tech could hang tough for a while but ultimately the talent and depth of Auburn opens things up in the second half. Auburn wins 38-14.
Virginia Tech + 7 over Alabama (at Atlanta, GA) - Alabama coach Saban did a masterful job in just his second season, leading the Crimson Tide to a 12-0 regular season record before falling to Florida in the SEC Title game and unbeaten Utan in the Sugar Bowl. They begin 2009 with a relatively inexperienced offense including a new QB. Virginia Tech won the ACC Title last season and scored the conference's first ever BCS Bowl win by defeating Cincinnati from the fairly weak Big East. Still, Tech has established itself as a program of national prominence for more than a decade under coach Beamer, now in season 23 at the helm of the V-Tech program. Tech has already lost star RB Evans for the season who was expected to lead what has been a rather ordinary offense in recent seasons. But Tech does not win with their offense. Under Beamer the Hokies win with defense and especially special teams. Scoring figures to be at a premium when these teams open the season in Atlanta as the low 37 ½ Total suggests. Thus getting a TD with a team so capable of playing smothering defense is huge. Add in Tech's consistently superior special teams play and that TD looms even larger. In most matchups Saban rates the coaching edge, often one that is huge. But that's not the case here where the coaching is at worst, even. The talent level and recruiting is similar and this game should live up to expectations. The call is for Alabama to win, but just barely. Alabama wins but by just 19-16.
NEBRASKA - 22 over Florida Atlantic - Bo Pelini has already reversed the decline of the Nebraska program in just one season as Cornhusker coach. While there still exists a huge gap between the Nebraska of today and a decade ago, that gap is closing and Nebraska should be even better in 2009 and is the pick to win the Big 12 North Division and likely face Oklahoma or Texas for a BCS Bowl bid. The defense improved by 128 yards per game in Pelini's inaugural season while the offense averaged 35 points per game. Florida Atlantic has made great strides the past few seasons under coach Schnellenberger. But they have been overmatched when playing early on the road against BCS programs. In the past 3 seasons they lost 52-10 Texas, 42-6 at Oklahoma State and 54-6 at Clemson. Nebraska, even during their recent down cycle, has been dominant opening the season, usually at home against overmatched but lined foes. In the 5 seasons since ex-coach Solich left (and over which Nebraska has been an ordinary 36-26 straight up) the Huskers have won their openers by 23, 42, 39, 18 and 39 points, covering in the 3 games that were lined against Louisiana Tech, Nevada and Western Michigan. Despite the strides made by FAU in recent seasons this is still to much of a step up and Nebraska's superior athletes and depth is decisive. Nebraska wins 49-17.
Logical approach 9/5
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