Winning Points ( best bets & preferred)
****BEST BET

GEORGIA over OKLAHOMA STATE* by 14

In making Oklahoma State this level of favorite the oddsmakers have the cart run-ning a full furlong ahead of the horse, as once again the public becomes infatuat-ed with one of those teams that may be more “pretty” than good. Yes, that ZacRobinson-Kendall Hunter-Dez Bryant trio in the skill positions is special, but thelast time that we saw the rest of the Cowboys they were losing late-season show-downs to Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oregon by a combined 67 points, allowingat least 557 yards in each of those defeats. Now there is a new system in place, andwhen fall camp opened five defensive starting positions were still open. That makesyou chalk over an established SEC power? And it is even worse when this particu-lar underdog brings one of the best traveling logs in the history of college football,with a sparkling 30-4 SU under Mark Richt in true road games, including 10-2against ranked teams. Yes, Matthew Stafford was the #1 NFL draft choice, but thatwas based as much on potential as his performances as a Bulldog, and there is noth-ing wrong with having a veteran like senior Joe Cox at QB. While Cox could notbeat out the talent of Stafford, his 31-0 record as a high school starter speaks vol-umes for his leadership and confidence. Surrounded by a veteran OL and great tal-ent in the skill spots the offense might even be better this season, and a DL thatfeatures seven players with starting experience brings that key depth that is so nec-essary on a hot early September afternoon. GEORGIA 35-21

***BEST BET

AUBURN* over LOUISIANA TECH by 30

The last time anyone saw the Tigers, they were being buried 36-0 by Alabama ina sad ending to the Tommy Tuberville years. But this is a program that had gone42-9 the previous four seasons, and what happened last year was more a result ofthe chemistry going bad than any lowering of the talent level, and particularly notefour defeats vs. bowl teams by five points or less. Now Gene Chizik returns home,bringing with him one of the best coaching staffs we have seen put together inmany years, and there is the potential for a quick turnaround. That will certainlybe the focus in the opener in front of the home fans, and it spells bad news againfor a Louisiana Tech program that has only been bringing enough energy toendorse the paychecks for these games in recent years. Under Derek Dooley non-conference trips to California, Mississippi, L.S.U., Kansas and Boise State havebeen a 1-4 ATS disaster in which the closest loss was by 24 points, and they fell acollective 39 points short of the oddsmakers projections. The tally for the programis 1-13 ATS taking double figures on the non-conference road the last five seasons,but the fact that they got enough breaks (+9 in turnovers) to back into a winnablebowl game near home last year now has them in the shortest price range of any ofthose previous trips. An offense that managed only three points in losses at Kansasand Boise State last year does not show the talent to make plays with this class ofdefense, so they grab the check and bow sheepishly again. AUBURN 37-7.



**PREFERRED

Ohio State* over Navy by 11

Using the hard-trying and disciplined Midshipmen in this role has been golden tous through the years, with the count now up to 21-9 as road underdogs since 2000,and the concept fits again here. Not only do the tactics of that option offense cre-ate headaches for opposing defensive coordinators, but it helps to slow the tempoof the game down with effective ball control. It is not easy to cover big numberswhen possessions are reduced, and we rarely see any coach want to tack on that lateTD against a service academy team. If anything those concepts are even more pro-nounced here, with the Buckeyes distracted in a major way with that huge homeshowdown vs. Southern Cal immediately on deck, which makes it difficult forplayers to focus in on film study of smaller and slower athletes, so Jim Tresselwould like to grind this one out as quickly as possible. And while losing NateFrazier up front does impact the Navy defense, there are still six other returningstarters, a rare experience level for that unit. OHIO STATE 27-16.

Notre Dame* over Nevada by 2

Playing against the Irish in the Charlie Weis years has filled a lot of space at the topof these pages and we will start 2009 the same way, with a big pointspread for agame in which we are not even sure that the favorite is the better team. Yes, thereare pre-season rumblings about the Irish making a BCS run, but that is more basedon a weak schedule than anything special that they bring to the table, and do notforget that they were 1-5 SU against bowl opponents during the regular-season lastyear, that being a close win over Navy. Nevada has been bowling each of the lastfour seasons and with a bye week on deck this can actually be treated like a post-season affair, as Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lipincott attack from those“pistol” sets (when was the last team that had three different players off of 1,000yard rushing totals in the past two seasons?) that can keep the Notre Dame defenseoff balance all afternoon, making it difficult for the Irish to merely win here, muchless get any kind of margin. NOTRE DAME 32-30.

Wake Forest* over Baylor by 14

Yes, young Baylor QB Robert Griffin is very good. But this good? Wake Forestopened 2008 as -11.5 over the Bears in Waco, and rolled to a 41-13 win. Andwhile Griffin did not start that game, he played most of it, completing 11-19 pass-es and leading the team in rushing. So how does that spread go to this one, withBaylor having won one road game the past two seasons, and the savvy Jim Grobedirecting a program that has seen the current seniors go 28-12 the last three sea-sons, with three straight bowl appearances? The Bears will make strides under ArtBriles, but it is not just upgrading the talent that matters in this matchup – to winon this field it comes down to polish, execution and fundamentals, as Grobe’sDeacons continue to be among the masters at those elements of the game (howabout a +66 in turnover ratio over the last eight seasons?). They are 17-5 SU asfavorites the last three seasons, which shows how well they take care of business andin this pointspread range that is all that is being asked. WAKE FOREST 34-20.


Clemson* over Middle Tennessee State by 9

The realities of the A.C.C. television contract make this a true danger zone for theTigers, who can not help but be looking ahead to the challenge of shutting downthe Georgia Tech option attack in a key conference revenge affair on Thursdaynight. So how does Dabo Swinney keep his team focused here? And making ittougher for him is the fact that Middle Tennessee not only brings head coach RickStockstill back to a venue where he was once an assistant, but nine other membersof his program also have roots in the Clemson program. With elusive DwightDasher now getting the offense to himself behind a veteran OL, and with the BlueRaiders not intimidated by this venue (5th year seniors have played at Maryland,Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisville, L.S.U., Kentucky and Mississippi State),this one finishes much closer on the scoreboard than the true gap between the pro-grams would call for, especially since we have a favorite focused on working theclock and reducing possessions with a lead. CLEMSON 26-17