KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

Saturday, September 5th, 2009 Navy (+22) over @Ohio State Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare

If there was any concern whether Ken Niumatalolo could follow Paul Johnson's success at Navy was laid to rest. Navy's flexbone attack was tops in the nation logging 292 yards per game, the nation's best mark and the Middiesattended their sixth consecutive bowl game. Navy did lose7 of their top 11 starters from the 2008 offense. But thatkind of turnover is common at the service academies, and the Midshipmen's coaching staff has plenty of experience running the offense responsible for the team's success. While the most experienced QB was lost to graduation, sophomore Ricky Dobbs played enough to gain 495 yardson the ground and has the best arm Navy has seen in some years. Niumatalolo has promised more aerial attack, and if Dobbs can master the flexbone triple option reads aswell as his predecessors the Middies will continue to be one of the nation's better offenses. Jim Tressel has faced the flexbone attack just once that Ican find. As coach of Youngstown State he squared off against Paul Johnson's Georgia Southern team in 1999 for the Div-1 AA championship. Georgia Southern won big, 59-24 in a game that was just as close as the scoreboard would indicate. The Eagles racked up 639 rushing yards on 61 carries. I've seen some of the highlights of that game,and as you might imagine the YSU defense had trouble justfiguring out who had the ball. The Ohio State offense is still in some flux after QB Terrelle Pryor's first season. While Pryor's physical gifts are undeniable, the question of justhow to use them is still a mystery in Columbus. In 2008 the spread attack, the veer, and a little bit of Nevada's Pistol offense saw use. Pryor did not fare well making the right option reads in the veer, the offensive line hadtrouble pass blocking out of the spread, and the Pistol is a tough scheme to use on a part-time basis. Scoring did improve late in the season, but the 24-21 loss to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl revealed just how far Pryor must go to become a polished player. He completed just 5 of 13 passes, and his most successful plays were scrambles when either the pass protection broke down or he couldn'tdecide where to throw the ball. There isn't anything on my technical radar screen favoring either team in this game. First game out of the box is always weak on the technical front no matter the sport. Jim Tressel has been kind to inferior opponents; the Buckeyes are just 3-8 ATS in his tenure as faves of -20 or more versus non-conference opponents. If you have to play Navy, its best to do it in a bowl game when you've gotlots of time to prepare. Next best would be in the first game so that preparation doesn't have to be rushed. If you troll the OSU fan sites you'll find that "Buck Nuts" are quite happy not to be seeing in-state FCS opponent Youngstown State to open the season again, as they have the last 2 years. But with a game against USC on deck it’s hard to see how the Middies can command OSU's full attention. Navy has no chance to win, but I'll put my money on the team whose raw QB is being guided into a successfulsystem by experienced coaches. Ohio State by only 17.

Georgia (+5½) over @Oklahoma State Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

Like the direction Oklahoma State is going in as a program, but we’re amazed at the level of attention they’re getting. We were a little ahead of things when we called for them to be one of the most improved teams in America in our annual two years ago but they have gone from little noticed to a very respectable program. QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendell Hunter, and WR Dez Bryant may very well prove to be the best “Triplet” combination in college football, and all seem destined to put up big numbers again this season. But the defense wasn’t much better than decent last season, and has never been much of a force. Veteran DC Bill Young comes in from Miami to run the show here after Tim Beckman left for the head job at Toledo. There’s been a lot of hype about this team, and Mike Gundy put a “media blackout” for the 12 days before this game, citing distractions. But the distractions continue. Orie Lemon, the #2 tackler for the ‘Pokes last year, tore an ACL in practice on Monday and TE Jamal Mosley, listed as a starter on the team’s depth chart for the UGA game, left the program suddenly this week, probably as a result of a domestic incident. A starting CB was arrested for driving without a license last week, but will play. The exact opposite has been the case at Georgia. After years of legal problems in the summers, the Bulldogs have been quiet as church mice. This team disappointed last season, but 10-3 isn’t the worst season in the world. In the spring the players talked about how they were all standing around ready for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to make plays. And while top draft picks are always missed, there are a lot of players who know they need to step up. The talent level here is never a questionand RB Richard Samuel has exploded on the scene in practice, with defenders lauding how difficult it is to tackle him. QB Joe Cox is a steady hand who’s teammates rave about. Chances are he’d be a veteran star if he wasn’t stuck behind Stafford. The line and receiver positions are absolutely loaded. And the defense had some poor games last year but has some outstanding talent, notably LB Rennie Curran and immovable DT Geno Atkins. This team is 30-4 in road games under Richt, with multiple wins at some of the toughest venues in the SEC.This is a role reversal from what you expect in a Georgia/Oklahoma State game. Everybody’s talking about Oklahoma State, yet they’re a team with very little successful big game experience and a ton of pressure on them. The preseason hype for Florida has Georgia focused and ready for the season. No problem taking to the road for a big game for these Bulldogs and an outright upset would not surprise in the least. Georgia by 3.

Illinois -7 over Missouri @St. Louis, MO Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

This is not my preferred role for a Ron Zook-coached team and I’ll readily admit that I often knee-jerk to the points in a rivalry matchup, especially when one coach has dominated this rivalry lately, as Gary Pinkel has won four straight over the Illini, with the last two coming over Zook inexciting games the last two seasons. However, this appears to be a reasonable number to lay with what these two teams have returning from last season, not only on the field, but also on the sidelines. Illinois does lose former OC Mike Locksley, but replaces him with a veteran in former TCU OC Mike Schultz. Missouri must replace both of their highly regarded coordinators, both of whom were withPinkel since he came over from Toledo 9 years ago. They promoted from within, but the two replacements have one year of combined collegiate experience at the coordinator positions between them (and that one year came at a Division III school in the mid 1990’s). They are definitely unproven commodities at this time, and have only 9 returning starters to work with this season. Among those not returning for the Tigers include record-setting QB Chase Daniel, and a number of NFL draft picks on both sides of the ball, including one of the nation’s best players in WR/KR Jeremy Maclin. There is some talent on hand, but these two and others such as DT Ziggy Hood (tearing it up with the Steelers in the preseason) were special players, and it will be interesting to see how their replacements fare. This is not USC we are talking about here, and the feeling is that there will be a big dropoff, especially early on as the two new coordinators get comfortable in their roles. The Illini return an excellent offensive bunch including SR QB Juice Williams, who will be focused here in his last chance to beat Mizzou. Really like having the senior on our side going against a sophomore (MU’s Blaine Gabbert) making his first start in a rivalry game. His main weapon, WR Arrelious Benn, also returns as do several other key pieces on offense. The defense returns only 5 starters, but that is a bit misleading, as the front 7 is very deep with players who have played a lot the last two seasons. Ron Zook is a very good motivator, and this game has been marked on the Illini’s calendar since last season’s loss. For the first time since he became UI’s head coach, he has the better, more experienced team, and with big things expected in Champaign this season, this game is imperative for the Illini. The more experienced team pulls away in the second half. UI by 13


LSU (-17) over @Washington Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

LSU seems to be the forgotten team in the SEC heading into the 2009 season. Most opinions have the Tigers the 4thbest team in the conference behind Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi. But I disagree, and think LSU will surprise a lot of people and be in the thick of things at season’s end. There’s no doubt that LSU was an overall big disappointment in 2008 with an 8-5 record after going an incredible 34-6 over the first three years of the Les Miles era. So after the subpar season, Miles revamped his coaching staff and made one of the best hires in all of college football. He nabbed former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis who is one of the best in the business. Chavis will make the Tigers a very formidable defense, and he’ll erase the memory of last year’s 27 points per game allowed; an unheard of number for LSU. Chavis is a great game planner, and his tricky schemes really confuse opponents. This LSU defense will be tough to score upon with Chavis now calling the shots. LSU’s offense was a mess last year. They got terrible quarterback play after losing stud Ryan Perrilloux to off-field trouble in the spring. Miles was then forced to play an inexperienced redshirt freshman in Jarrett Lee and a castoff transfer from Harvard in Andrew Hatch. Both were downright awful with 17 interceptions combined to just 16TD passes. So Miles had to turn things over to true freshman Jordan Jefferson after Lee and Hatch suffered injuries. And after getting his feet wet in the last two games, Jefferson blossomed in the Chick-fil-A bowl game.Reports out of camp say that Jefferson’s development has progressed, and Miles is extremely confident in him. The running game will be solid once again with Charles Scott back after rushing for 1,174 yards (# 5 in the country) and 18 touchdowns. The Tigers have a bevy of talent at the skill positions, and that talent will allow Jefferson to have a breakout year and lead LSU to big things.Washington’s football program sunk deep under Tyrone Willingham. The Huskies went an abysmal 11-37 over his four years, and hit rock bottom in 2008 after going winlessat 0-12. In desperation, Washington opened the checkbook and spent big bucks in hiring former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the overhauled coaching staff. Sarkisian comes in well regarded, but former Southern Cal coaches have not been successful after leaving the Trojans for whatever reason. Despite the 18 returning starters including dual threat quarterback Jake Locker, the Huskies are overmatched here in their home opener. LSU just lays over Washington talent wise, andLes Miles always has his team ready out of the gate. The Tigers have won their four season openers under Miles by a combined 166-47 for an average win margin of 30 pointsper game. Since Miles arrived in Baton Rouge in 2005, LSU has gone 12-4-1 against the spread vs. out of conference opponents. While Washington will be more competitive throughout 2009, they are simply out-classed here. LSU by 24