3* BEST BET
One can’t blame Buckeye backers for circling September 12th on
their calendars when the Men from Troy visit the Horseshoe, but
they must fi rst take care of business on this opening Saturday
in September. Navy certainly doesn’t have Ohio State’s pedigree
on the gridiron but they have never been and never will be
considered pushovers. For starters, no non-BCS squad has more
SU wins (13) against BCS opposition than the Middies since
2003. And they have been money in the bank when taking a
big number. They’re a bulletproof 17-3 ATS as road dogs of 20
or more points since 1991 and in the 76 games they have played
since the 2003 season, they have been on the short end of a 22 or
more point defi cit only fi ve times! 2nd-year HC Ken Niumatalolo
also arrives with the nation’s most improved scoring defense. As
for the Buckeyes, they’ll need this one to get ready for that huge
rematch against USC. With just four offensive starters returning,
an unsettled offensive line and a pair of 1st-round defensive
starters lost to the NFL draft, expect Tressel to work out the
kinks of his new pistol-offense and play this one close to his red
vest. The Terrelle Pryor show is not quite ready for viewing at a
theatre near you – not yet, anyway.
OHIO STATE over Navy by 10
PENN ST over Akron by 24
Like the Energizer Bunny, Joe Paterno just keeps going and going. In
43 seasons as Penn State’s head coach, Joe Pa has won two national
championships, 23 bowl games and leads Florida State’s Bobby Bowden
in the career-win category by one with a whopping 383 victories.
Chances are good that the defending Big 10 champ Nittany Lions will
nab no. 384 for Joe today over an Akron squad that collapsed down
the stretch last year to fi nish 5-7. But covering the current line of 24
points may not be all that easy for the 8th-ranked Nits. Many of last
year’s key performers are gone, including a trio of offensive linemen,
several talented wide receivers and all four starting defensive backs. By
contrast, Akron returns 15 starters (nine on offense) featuring QB Chris
Jacqueman, his two leading wideouts and four big-eaters on the OL.
Embattled head coach J.D. Brookhart (27-33 in fi ve seasons) also hopes
to add some zip to his squad with the addition of former Pittsburgh
and Stanford coach Walt Harris (assistant HC) and Miami Ohio’s Shane
Montgomery (OC). A trip to the archives tells us Akron owns a nifty
7-1 ATS mark lately as dogs of 22 or more points, plus they’ve covered
seven of the last ten against non-MAC opponents. Yes, Paterno’s Lions
are 40-11 SU the last four seasons but they’re just 26-22-1 ATS. The Zips’
stop unit may have been a disaster last year (fi nished 90th overall in
total defense) but until superstar QB Daryll Clark gets in synch with his
new pass receivers and blockers up front, we’re not comfortable laying
the big points with PSU. Slight lean to the Tiremakers here.
MICHIGAN over W Michigan by 8
If you thought things were bad for Rich Rodriguez in his fi rst year
with the Maize-and-Blue after fi nishing with an unconceivable 3-9
mark, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Not only has Rodriguez been
accused of illegal workout violations by former and current players,
but then came the ultimate slap – one of his players left for Ohio
State. OUCH! That’s like a Capulet falling for a Montague but we’ll
leave that story for another day. Four home games to start the season
and 11 offensive returning starters has Richie Rich looking for a quick
SU start. But the Wolves have not been exactly Usain Bolt-like out
of the ATS starting block, posting a tortoise-like 0-7 ATS log in their
fi rst two games of the season over the last four years. They‘ve also
dropped the ball against the Mighty MAC, going 0-5 ATS over the
last three seasons. With the Broncos 6-0 ATS in the fi rst of back-toback
road games and 7-3 ATS when taking more than a TD versus Big
10 opposition, we’ll look for Richie to get the win but not the cover in
this Ann Arbor opener. A loss here might have Michigan fans asking,
“Oh Lloyd, wherefore art thou?”
Connecticut over Ohio U by 10
We pointed out this fact in the 2009 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper’s
Yearbook but we think it bears repeating: Connecticut is one of only
three teams to improve on both sides of the ball yet slip SU and ATS last
season. Programs that fi t this profi le almost always reward their backers
the following year so we’ll be looking to ride the Huskies whenever
possible this season. Don’t let the loss of QB Tyler Lorenzen and Big
East Player of the Year RB Donald Brown scare you off here – UConn
head coach Randy Edsall has built this team into a deep, disciplined unit
that’s cashed three of its last four tries as road chalk. On the other hand,
Ohio coach Frank Solich has seen the win totals drop at Athens over the
past two seasons and word is he’ll employ the seldom-successful twoheaded
quarterback approach on offense in 2009. Granted, senior QB’s
Theo Scott and Boo Jackson are both talented players but we think an
offensive unit performs better when familiar with a single fi eld general
leading the attack. Ohio’s dreadful 0-7 SU record in season openers
combined with a 1-6 SU mark versus Big East opposition only cements
our opinion. UConn has rolled to six straight season-opening wins by an
average of 34.7 PPG under Edsall’s guidance. The margin won’t be that
great today but the Huskies should bring home the cash.
NOTRE DAME over Nevada by 8
After a 7-6 season that was preceded by a 3-9 campaign, Charlie’s
Fighting Irish have landed a spot the Top 25. Huh? It appears that
NBC (Notre Dame Broadcasting Company) has a say in the polls. They
must also have a say in the lines as this one opened at 10 and has
since moved to two TD’s. Keep the points coming because what the
big wigs DON’T have a say in is the Irish’s 0-3 ATS mark versus WAC
opposition or their 1-5 ATS record in season openers. Oh, and let’s not
forget about that little 2-9 dandy as favorites of 13 or more points!
Starting QB Jimmy Claussen says that Weis won’t lose his job because
of his play. But unfortunately for Charlie, Jimmy don’t play no ‘D’ – and
Nevada arrives with some heavy offensive artillery, led by explosive QB
Colin Kaepernick, defending WAC rushing leader Vai Taua and former
WAC rush champion, Luke Lippincott (recently granted a 6th year of
eligibility). The ‘Double Deuce’ offense (200 yards rushing and 200
yards passing) accounted for over 500 YPG while averaging 6.1 YPR
last season and scored more than 30 points in ten of twelve games.
You might want to check out this stat before stewing with the Irish: in
their last 50 games, Notre Dame is 8-41-1 ATS as a home favorite in
which they allow more than 20 points. Sorry, Charlie, we don’t want
any of that – not against a foe that has eclipsed that mark in 42 of its
last 48 regular season contests.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Georgia over OKLAHOMA ST by 6
A clear-cut case of perception versus reality. Perception: Georgia,
last year’s pre-season No. 1 team in the land, badly blew its shot
at a BCS championship and will become an SEC also-ran in 2009
after losing QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno and WR
Mohamed Massaquoi to the NFL. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State
returns all its fi repower from the 2nd-most prolifi c offense in
school history – Senior QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and
WR Dez Bryant (combined for 38 TD’s in 2008). Against a visiting
squad hampered by a green QB with just one career start and a
poor-tackling defense that was the 4th most-penalized group in
the country, the Stillwater Cowboys should ride roughshod over
the outclassed Dawgs, right? Reality: Feast your eyes on these
numbers from our PLAYBOOK.com database. Georgia has cashed
in 12 of its last 13 road games versus non-SEC foes and the Bulldogs
are a golden 25-4 SU in season openers since 1980. No such luck
with Okie State. The Pokes are 0-4 as chalk of 7 or less points, 1-3
SU and ATS when tackling the SEC and head coach Mike Gundy is
a money-burning 11-18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 7 or fewer
points. Georgia’s Richt thinks 5th-year SR QB Joe Cox will raise
some eyebrows. “When it comes to quarterback play, you need
an accurate passer, a great decision-maker, and a guy who can
lead. Joe really personifi es all of those characteristics.” Matched
against a Cowboys defense that was stampeded for 406 yards per
game last year, look for Georgia to play ball control offense and
keep OSU’s gunslingers corralled on the sidelines. Sure, the Pokes
fi gure to be vastly improved in 2009 but laying almost a TD right
out of the gate to an opponent of this pedigree seems like too
big a leap to us – especially when Georgia is the featured team in
this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT. How ‘bout them Dawgs!
Kentucky over Miami Ohio by 16 (Cincinnati, OH)
If the season were a sprint, Rich Brooks’ crew would be holding gold
as his Wildcats have raced out to 4-0 and 5-0 starts, respectively, over
the last two seasons. Of course the majority of those wins have come
against non-conference opposition and this season opener should
prove no different as we expect the RedHawks of Miami Ohio to fall
prey to the quick-starting ‘Cats. The SEC visitors have had their way
against MAC foes, boasting a solid 13-1 SU mark over their last 14
meetings. They’ve also performed admirably as road chalk, posting a
nifty 7-3, 70% record. With Miami Ohio a putrid 2-17-1 ATS in their
last 20 SU home losses and the SMART BOX saying a resounding ‘no’
to Haywood’s Hawks, we’ll don our derbies and look to go wire-towire
with the Wildcats this afternoon in Oxford.
Oklahoma over Byu by 16 (Arlington, TX)
This matchup takes place at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium and
Cougar fans are already weighing the tradeoff of a glamour game
on the national stage against the very real possibility of opening
the season with a lopsided loss. “Is there a risk that we aren’t
undefeated, and we aren’t the BCS buster?” asked BYU coach Bronco
Mendenhall. “I think that’s a very shortsighted view and my interest
is in building the program over the long term.” It’s safe to say he’s
accomplished that goal: with three consecutive 10+ win seasons in
the bank, Mendenhall has been eclipsed in total victories only by
Boise State, Florida, Ohio State and Oklahoma over the same time
span. Meanwhile Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops has almost become a
victim of his own success. After beating Florida State for the national
championship in 2000, he’s lost three BCS national championship
games (to LSU, USC and Florida) and two other BCS bowls (to Boise
State and West Virginia). With Heisman-winning QB Sam Bradford
returning to guide an offense that topped 50 points in nine of 14
contests in ‘08 and nine starters back from a punishing defense,
expectations are again ridiculously high for the 3rd-ranked Sooners.
The Cougars return some offensive weapons of their own in QB Max
Hall, RB Harvey Unga and WR Dennis Pitta – and with all the pressure
weighing on Oklahoma here, we’d bite taking three TD’s with the
Mormons in Norman, let alone Arlington. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in
lidlifters and will catch Bradford working behind a rebuilt offensive
line here. Take it if you play it.
Illinois over Missouri by 8 (St. Louis, MO)
We’d love to snap the rubber band with Illinois in this spot as recent
double revenge should have Zook’s crooks clamoring for payback
against a green Missouri squad. Only the Illini’s 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS
failure in this series tempers our enthusiasm. The Illini do return eight
starters on the offensive side of the ball, including QB Juice Williams,
and should have their way with a Mizzou group that limps in with four
returning defensive starters and just one defensive lineman. Despite
a 5-7 season, the boys from Champaign actually produced better stats
than their 2007 Rose Bowl season. With Gary Pinkel’s group gutted by
graduation losses, including 4-year starting QB Chase Daniel and star
WR Jeremy Maclin, we’ll glance past Illinois’ 1-6 ATS mark in opening
lined games and look for them to ‘squeeze’ out an ATS cover.
4* BEST BET
Okay, stop snickering. We know Rice steamed its way to a superb
10-3 SU mark in 2008 punctuated by a 38-14 massacre of Western
Michigan in the Texas Bowl – and that the Blazers got ripped for
429 yards per game en route to a dismal 4-8 campaign. But now
hear this. The Owls are without eight of eleven starters from
their 41-PPG offense, including all-CUSA QB Chase Clement (4119
yards and 44 TD’s in 2008) and skywalking WR Jarrett Dillard.
Translation? Rice graduated 97% of its passing and 93% of its
total rushing yards! At the opposite end of the spectrum, UAB
returns 18 starters – with both the entire offensive and defensive
lines back intact. And that Blazer defense we bad-mouthed
earlier improved dramatically by season’s end: they gave up 129
points and 1703 yards in their initial three games but slashed
those numbers to just 41 points and 848 yard in the closing trio
of contests. Those ‘other boys from Bama’ have also compiled a
sweet 20-5 ATS record in their last 25 SU lined home wins, vastly
superior to Rice’s 2-12-2 ATS mark in its last 16 SU road losses.
With the Owls facing back-to-back road games versus Texas Tech
and Oklahoma State after this one, it’s hard not to feel a bit sorry
for last year’s most-improved FBS team. But we’re in the business
of cashing winning tickets, not doling out sympathy. Step up to
the green-and-gold window here.
UAB over Rice by 16
WAKE FOREST over Baylor by 7
Here’s another one of those ‘perception teams’… the Baylor Bears.
Despite winning just four games in 2008, the Waco Bruins made huge
strides on both sides of the ball and are expected to improve based
on last year’s performance. A lot of the expectations are centered on
dynamic QB Robert Griffi n, the ’08 Big 12 newcomer of the year, who
dazzled opponents with 2,091 yards passing and 843 yards rushing.
On defense, linebacker Joe Pawelek and safety Jordan Lake are two of
the top players in the conference, and the Bears return 20 of 24 starters
(counting the specialists), the most the program has brought back
since 1969. Even so, the feeling here is the line has been over-adjusted
due to Baylor’s perceived improvement. First, we can’t overlook the
fact that Art Briles’ team lost by 28 points as 11.5 home dogs to the
Deacs in the ’08 season opener. Second, while we’re on the subject of
talented quarterbacks, let’s not dismiss Wake’s Riley Skinner. Not only
is the senior the most accurate passer in ACC history, he’s compiled a
solid 12-3 SU and 9-5 ATS log against non-con opposition (8-1 ATS as
a dog or favorite of 4 or less points). And third, the Demon Deacons
could easily have reached double-digit wins last year had they not suffered
fi ve losses by an average of 5 PPG. With Skinner coming off an
11-for-11 performance in December’s Eaglebank Bowl win over Navy
and head coach Jim Grobe declaring, “We’re deeper at receiver than
we’ve ever been,” expect Baylor to be on the receiving end of a SU
and ATS season-opening beatdown.
Minnesota over SYRACUSE by 10
Foldin’ Gophers collapsed like a Madoff investment last year, starting
7-1 before fi nishing 7-6 – despite a defense that improved 138 YPG
from 2007 (3rd best in nation). Even with the defensive turnaround,
Ted Roof resigned and was replaced by Kevin Cosgrove (Nebraska) and
Ronnie Lee as co-defensive coordinators. OC Mike Dunbar was also
shown the door in favor of Jedd Fisch, who spent the last eight years
in the NFL. Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster and his rebuilt staff
welcome back 18 returning starters, including QB Adam Weber (2,761
yards and 15 TD’s) and WR Eric Decker (most catches in the Big 10 last
year). The return of RB Duane Bennett should also bolster a woeful
rushing attack that fi nished 104th in the nation. New Syracuse head
man Doug ‘Boney’ Marrone inherits the unpleasant task of erasing the
stench of the Greg Robinson regime: four consecutive cellar-dwelling
seasons and a combined Big East record of 3-25. Marrone is excited
over the potential of QB Greg Paulus but must fi rst focus his attention
on the offensive line, a group he has described as “awful.” We think
a change of leadership will revive the moribund Orange program
but not here. The ‘Cuse stands 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in recent season
openers and they’ve cashed only twice in their last 10 tries as home
dogs. When the SMART BOX speaks, we listen.
E MICHIGAN over Army by 8
Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the baddest of them all? With
120 teams participating in the FBS division, these two programs are
perpetual bottom-feeders. You’ll probably have a better chance of
getting your hands on a Paris Hilton choir video than seeing either
of these two programs crack the Top 100 anytime in the near future.
And speaking of mirrors, the similarities between these two groups
are plenty. Neither has won more than four games in a season this
decade, including identical 3-9 marks in 2008, and both are counting
on their fourth coach in 10 years to get things turned around. While
EMU’s Ron English returns eight starters on both sides of the ball –
including an offensive line that has combined to start 94 games – the
cupboard is bare for Army’s Rich Ellerson as his Cadets are armed with
just ten returnees, including three on offense. Look for the more
potent Eagles to avenge last season’s 17-13 setback and hand the
Cadets their seventh straight season-opening SU and ATS loss.
WISCONSIN over No Illinois by 13
It’s been an unseasonably cool summer in the nation’s midsection
but the temperature under Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema has
remained in the hot zone. After coasting to a 21-5 SU mark in his
fi rst two seasons, Bielema had to watch his Badgers do some very
un-Wisconsin-like things in 2008. Wisky lost fi ve of its fi rst six Big 10
contests and ended the season with a humiliating 42-13 blowout by
Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl. The explanation was simple:
the Badgers just couldn’t fi nish. “We had some really great players,
but we didn’t play hard all the time,” says Wisconsin senior DE O’Brien
Schofi eld. “We didn’t play four quarters. We gave up at times.”
Northern Illinois exhibited a similar M.O., dropping three of its last
four regular season games before squeaking into a bowl game with
a 6-6 record. The real eye-opener in DeKalb was the Huskie defense:
rookie head coach Jerry Kill oversaw the 2nd-best overall defensive
improvement in the country (138 YPG and 12.8 PPG). The NIU defense
lost two-time MAC MVP Larry English to the NFL, but the defensive
line and linebacker corps own enough talent to offset the absence of
seven starters. Normally, we’d jump all over a Wisconsin team that’s
covered eight straight as a non-conference favorite of 24 or fewer
points but this team played too many close-call games in ’08 to be
laying big points in a season opener (six games last year decided by 3
or less points). The Huskies have barked their way to an 18-8 ATS mark
as double-digit dogs and could hang tight with a Wisconsin squad
beset with questions at quarterback. The Badgers are also missing
stalwart RB P.J. Hill, who left early for the NFL, and six veterans who
combined for an amazing 237 career starts. Bielema will be hot under
the collar before this one’s over. We’ll hitch a ride with the sled dogs.
PURDUE over Toledo by 11
If you’ve checked out the SMART BOX on page 3, you know we’re
pretty much handcuffed here since both head coaches check into
today’s game as fi rst-timers. Frankly, it’ll be somewhat strange to look
over at the Purdue sidelines and not see Joe Tiller, a fi xture at West
Lafayette for the previous twelve seasons. Taking their cue from one
of college football’s fastest-growing trends, the Boilermaker brass
hired new coach Danny Hope to serve under Tiller for one season
before stepping in as his replacement. He’ll show up for work here
with only 11 returning starters and missing the services of departed
QB Curtis Painter, the Big 10’s passing leader in ’08. Things look more
promising for Toledo head coach Tim Beckman: 18 starters are back,
including 3-year starting QB Aaron Opelt and the entire offensive
line. However, the Rockets have fi zzled their way to three consecutive
losing seasons and failed miserably as non-conference road dogs,
going 3-10 ATS. Purdue owns a gaudy 24-3 SU record versus the
MAC, with 20 of those wins coming by double-digit margins. But with
today’s pointspread landing in the double-zone, we’re not left with
much wiggle room to make a solid call. Since the digitally-remastered
Beatles catalog will be available for purchase on September 9th, we’ll
heed the advice of the Fab Four and just let it be.
Stanford over WASHINGTON ST by 16
Disgraced coach Greg Robinson may have been chased out of Syracuse
but his legacy is alive and well in Pullman, Washington. Echoing
Robinson’s futility, second-year WSU head coach Paul Wulff’s 2008
debut was an absolute disaster: a 2-11 overall record, a defense
that was pounded for over 50 points in six games and eight losses in
conference play by an average margin of 47 PPG. Yikes! Little wonder,
then, that 5-7 Stanford – who annihilated the Cougars 58-0 last year
– is a 16-point road favorite in this season opener. Those are some
scary numbers but these stats pertaining to the visitors are equally
disturbing. Stanford is a weak 2-10-1 as a road favorite of 9 or more
points and the Farmboys have won only 8 of their last 30 Pac 10 road
trips… with not a single win coming by more than 17 points. However,
we can’t blame Wulff for Washington State’s shameful 1-6 ATS home
record in this series. Can you sense our complete lack of interest?
AUBURN over Louisiana Tech by 6
You’ve gotta love working in America. Where else can you win 5 of
24 games and get promoted? That certainly is the case for new Tigers’
head man Gene Chizik as he leaves Ames for SEC country. The defensiveminded
Chizik will rely on former Tulsa OC Gus Malzahn to unveil a
new spread offense in hopes of bolstering a pathetic Auburn offense
which produced only 17 PPG in 2008. The hosts should fi nd it tough
in the early going as the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech may actually have
a little more bite than bark this season with seven defensive starters
returning from a team that ranked in the Top 10 nationally against
the run last year. The Techsters’ putrid 3-17 ATS log as non-conference
road dogs is a concern but with their entire O-line and D-line intact,
we’ll look for them to hand the Cats their seventh loss in their last
nine contests as home favorites versus non-conference opponents.
And let’s not forget this little ditty uncovered from our PLAYBOOK.
com database: double-digit favorites who lost four or more games by
6 or less points the previous year are just 4-8 ATS. Dooley dogs!
TEXAS A&M over New Mexico by 17
The aforementioned Greg Robinson didn’t own the copyright on ‘ugly’
last season. New Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman kicked off 2008
with an Aggies team that boasted a 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS record in
lined home openers. Sixty minutes later, Sherman’s bunch had laid a
mammoth egg, losing 18-14 to lowly Arkansas State as 19-point home
chalk. Needless to say, the humbled Aggies will look to make amends
here when they entertain New Mexico – minus 11-year coach Rocky
Long (now on the staff at San Diego State). That makes new Lobos
coach Mike Locksley a SMART BOX fade and a solid performance by
the hosts today could provide the fuel for a 4-0 start before Oklahoma
State comes calling on October 10th. New Mexico’s pathetic 0-6-1 ATS
mark in its fi rst lined game and a 1-3-1 ATS ledger at Big 12 sites sounds
a lot like receiving orders to face the fi ring squad. With 16 starters
ready to erase last year’s painful memories, the Aggies should leave
some bloodied and beaten Lobos on the battlefi eld today.
Alabama over Va Tech by 11 (Atlanta, GA)
A showdown between two of the nation’s highest-paid coaches, this
could very well be the day’s most intensely-fought, physically punishing
game. The 7th-ranked Hokies are a near-unanimous choice to rule
over the ACC this year while #5 Alabama is expected to once again
challenge mighty Florida for SEC supremacy. Despite the resurgent
Tide’s 12-0 regular season in 2008, Bama comes into this matchup
riding a bitter 2-game losing streak. But Nick Saban’s troops also fall
into one of our favorite opening-game categories, that of ‘red-faced
bowlers’, after they laid 9.5 points to Utah in the Sugar Bowl and got
dismantled by a 31-17 score. Frank Beamer’s squad closed strong with
four straight wins, including a convincing 20-7 decision over Big East
champ Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. But after losing star RB Darren
Evans to a season-ending knee injury just weeks ago, Tech will once
again have to lean on its rock-ribbed defense to hang with the Tide
here (Hokie ‘D’ has allowed an average of just 263 YPG since 2004,
tops in the FBS). Should Alabama claim the outright win, VT’s chances
for a pointspread cover plummet dramatically: the Techsters are just
6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 SU losses as an underdog. The ‘neutral’ site
location at the Georgia Dome favors the Tide so we’ll look for the
‘Nictator’ to reward Bama backers with their 10th ATS win in 15 tries.
Idaho over NEW MEXICO ST by 1
A rare opening week conference fray fi nds the Vandals on the WAC
highway as they travel to New Mexico State, a squad they have owned
in recent years. Can you imagine being knocked around by these sorry
Spuds? Idaho owns only nine wins over the past four seasons and
three have come at the hands of the equally sorry Aggies. In fact,
they’ve covered six of the last seven in this series and three of four on
this fi eld. With the hosts a pathetic 6-18 ATS as conference chalk and
new HC DeWayne Walker a SMART BOX fade, we’ll back the visitors
who are a surprising 3-0 SU and ATS on the road as favorites or dogs
of 3 points or less. Look for Robb Akey’s Vandals to steal one as the
wrong team is favored tonight in Las Cruces.
UTEP over Buffalo by 10
Here’s a curious line. UTEP, a program in a steady 3-year decline under
Mike Price, installed as a TD favorite over a Buffalo squad that’s
reached new heights under respected 4th-year head coach Turner Gill.
The Bulls enjoyed their fi rst winning season since the Ice Age last year
with 8 wins (3 in overtime) and an appearance in the International
Bowl. However, in our opinion, such rapid improvement of a perennial
doormat makes them primetime ‘play against’ material the following
season. Buffalo will sorely miss veteran QB Drew Willy while the
Miners welcome back rifl e-armed QB QB Tommy Vittatoe, who passed
for 6375 yards and 58 TD’s in two seasons. UTEP also returned its two
main RB’s among 15 starters and 55 lettermen. Meanwhile, the Bulls
suffered a crushing blow when star RB James Starks blew out a knee
and will be sidelined for the season. With the Bison dragging behind a
horrible 1-11 SU record in road openers, look for the Miners to extract
their pound of fl esh for last year’s season-opening 42-17 blowout at
Buffalo.
CALIFORNIA over Maryland by 24
You can’t blame Terp fans for doing a little California Dreamin’ these
days. Not only did the gridiron gang shock the Bears as 14-point home
pups last season, Maryland’s hoopsters followed it up in March with a
1st-round win over California in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney.
We’re big fans of the Mamas and the Papas and our trusty database
tells us that maybe all the leaves are brown and the sky is gray for
Ralph’s turtles: they carry an 0-7 ATS log in their fi rst lined game and
a 1-6 ATS mark away versus an opponent with revenge. Couple that
with Cal’s 5-1 record in season openers and their spotless 3-0 penchant
for non-conference revenge and you can see why covering this 3-TD
spread could be a reality for Jeff Tedford’s 12th-ranked Bears.
USC over San Jose St by 31
Dick Tomey can’t get no respect. He’s the 7th active winningest head
coach in the country and, with 15 starters returning, could have his best
team in fi ve years at San Jose. So why did the Spartans schedulemaker
decide the Tominator should start the 2009 season against a pair of
teams that combined to go 25-1 SU last year? Can’t answer that but
we do know this: USC’s Pete Carroll is on the cusp of establishing an
honest-to-God DYNASTY in Los Angeles. In nine seasons, Carroll has
produced 33 fi rst-team All-Americans, 14 fi rst-round draft picks and
three Heisman winners. USC has also fi nished in the AP Top 4 in seven
consecutive seasons, playing in a BCS bowl each time, and are gunning
for their eighth straight Pac 10 title. True to form, the 4th-ranked Trojans
lost 11 players to this year’s NFL draft, they’ll be starting newcomer
Matt Barkley at QB (the fi rst non-redshirt freshman quarterback to
start a season opener for USC), and they’re still favored by 35 points
over Tomey’s Spartans! And, as you might expect, the homeboys own
the majority of ATS edges here. USC has covered fi ve of the last six as
non-conference chalk of 24 or more points and cashed eight of eleven
at the Coliseum before heading out on back-to-back road trips. Still,
we just can’t get worked up about laying a ton of points with USC
when they’ve got one of their biggest games of the season looming
on next week’s horizon, a showdown with #6 Ohio State in Columbus.
However, that is by no means a recommendation to buck the Trojans
here. Last year they returned only 11 starters, suited up a new QB,
embarked on a coast-to-coast trip and still blistered Virginia, 52-7. We
suggest you look elsewhere today.
ARIZONA over C Michigan by 3
Arizona’s Mike Stoops looks to build on the fi rst winning season in his
5-year reign but he’ll have to do it without his wife (going through a
divorce) and his all-everything QB Willie Tuitama. The MVP of the 2008
Las Vegas Bowl hit the graduation trail handing over the reins to a new
two-headed QB tandem in SO Matt Scott and Michigan State transfer
Nick Foles. With RB Nic Grigsby, All-American TE Ron Gronkowski and
all three WR’s returning, Stoops should have plenty of weapons at
his disposal. However, like having two wives, two-headed quarterback
situations rarely work. Besides, it’s not the offense but the defense
that will be tested in the 2009 opener as QB Dan LeFevour and his
red-faced Chippewas invade Tucson. The Chips ended a promising
2008 campaign with three straight losses, including a 24-21 bowl loss
to FAU as 7-point favorites, placing them squarely in the ‘red-faced
bowler’ category. LeFevour, who has accounted for almost 12,000
yards of total offense in his stellar career, has been a handicapper’s
delight. He’s rewarded his backers with a 25-12-2 ATS mark and we’ll
look for more of the same tonight in this double-digit dog role. And
speaking of big numbers, some teams just aren’t meant to play the
role of double-digit chalk. The Wildcats are one of them as they carry
a Rosie O’Donnell-like 14-41 ATS weight in this situation. Grab MAC
‘Fevour’ and chip away tonight with the visitors.
UCLA over San Diego St by 27
Former UCLA golden boy Rick Neuheisel’s return to his alma mater
last season did not go exactly as planned. The one-time Bruins QB
and MVP of the 1983 Rose Bowl win over heavily-favored Illinois,
Neuheisel saw his team stumble to a 4-8 fi nish, its lowest win total
since 1999. Don’t look for a repeat performance in 2009; UCLA is
loaded on offense with nine returning starters including elusive RB
Khalil Bell. And Neuheisel, who was critical of the Bruins’ quarterback
play last year, replaced starter Kevin Craft with freshman phenom
Kevin Prince. New San Diego State head coach Brady Hoke traded the
frozen tundra of Muncie, Indiana for the sun and surf scene to try his
hand at rebuilding a pitiful Aztec program. Our friendly SMART BOX
says to avoid Brady’s boys here and our database concurs: SDSU is just
1-7 ATS in the last eight series meetings (1-6 at home) and 2-8 ATS
overall versus the PAC 10. UCLA weighs in with a hefty 13-2 ATS mark
in Game One, including a 12-1 record against non-conference foes.
Can you spell B-L-O-W-O-U-T?
5* BEST BET
It’s back to business in the Bayou. After three straight 11-plus
win seasons including a 2007 National Championship, Les and his
‘fat cats’ were hit with a dose of reality. The Bengals’ fi ve losses
last year were the most suffered by a defending champion since
1943 and Miles will be looking to trade in his ESPN commercial
appearances for some primetime exposure. He gets it started
this Saturday (10:30 ESPN) and he couldn’t have hand-picked
an easier opponent. The Huskies do return 18 starters from
last season but that group was a sledless 0-12 and now turns
to former USC OC Steve Sarkisian for help. Besides taking on a
group of Cats that are a prowling 36-9-4 ATS when they win SU
as road favorites, Sarkisian must also tackle our SMART BOX
and its 0-8 ATS manifest as home dogs of 15 or more points in
coaching debuts. With the hosts just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 SU
losses as a home dog and 1-5 as DD HD’s, we’ll look for Miles to
improve on his stellar 16-6-1 mark as a non-conference favorite.
With Florida and Alabama grabbing most of the SEC spotlight,
expect Les and company to stay under the radar and quietly
make amends for last season – as least until that October 10th
showdown with the Gators. Hey Les, “Can you picture yourself
back in the National Spotlight?” We can.
RUTGERS over Cincinnati by 1
Despite an 11-3 season, Brian Kelly’s Bearcats are one of a handful
of Big East squads on the outside (of the Top 25) looking in. Greg
Schiano’s Scarlet Knights are another one of those Big East outsiders,
which makes this a crucial early season battle for national notoriety as
well as conference supremacy. Schiano will have to get it done for the
fi rst time since 2004 without 4-year starting QB Mike Teel and, besides
the AWESOME ANGLE demanding a ‘play against’ Rutgers, our own
powerful database points us in the visitors’ direction. The dog is a solid
6-1 ATS in this series and Kelly has been golden in this opening week role
as he’s a money-making 12-2-2 ATS when taking 12 or less points. Couple
that with the Knights’ 0-9 ATS log their last 9 as favorites of less than
7 points and their 1-4 ATS mark as favorites with conference revenge
and, suddenly, our ‘Angle’ becomes even more awesome. Cincy’s 4-0
ATS weekday mark has the hosts ‘laboring’ all night. Grab the points.
Miami Fla over FLORIDA ST by 1
The Canes’ brutal opening 4-game schedule fi nds them in the cozy
confi nes of Doak Campbell Stadium on Labor Day. Yes, we did say cozy
confi nes! After all, they’ve won three of the last four SU and four of
the last fi ve ATS in Bobby’s backyard. In fact, this has turned into a
dog series of late with the puppy fetching the bone in seven of the
last eight contests. With QB’s leaving South Florida faster than dogs
leaving Philly, the onus squarely falls on the shoulders of Jacory Harris.
Harris has promised Miami fans a national championship as well as a
Heisman Trophy and if his 30-0 high school record is any indication
of his ability, Randy Shannon’s program might very well be in good
hands. Recent infractions have ol’ Bobby’s wins dropping quicker than
a Heidi Fleiss call girl and his 2-7 ATS mark as conference favorites
of 6 or less points doesn’t give us any confi dence he will add to the
win total this week. Nor does his 2-7 ATS log versus a conference
opponent with revenge. ‘U’ know what to do.
Ole Miss over MEMPHIS by 10
No doubt about it… the Ole Miss Rebels are the media darlings of the
2009 college football season. Mississippi was the only team to beat
BCS Champ Florida last year (in The Swamp, no less!) and closed out
the season with a 6-game win streak that included a sound beating of
Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Even so, Houston Nutt and company
managed to raise the ire of the SEC after Ole Miss signed 37 players
in February, forcing conference leaders to pass a rule limiting football
teams to signing 28 players annually. “The Ole Miss situation was
embarrassing for a lot of our coaches,” commissioner Mike Slive said.
“I know Ole Miss’ plan was to steer those non-qualifi ers to the local
JUCOs in Mississippi. But it left a sour taste in a lot of coaches’ mouths
who stress that recruits are students fi rst and athletes second.”
Ranked #10 in the initial USA Today coaches’ preseason poll, we think
the Rebels will leave an equally sour taste among sports bettors who
have fallen prey to all the hype surrounding this year’s edition. True,
14 starters, including QB Jevan Snead, are back but Ole Miss will no
longer be in a position to ambush unsuspecting foes. The Rebs are
also running headlong into a wall of bad numbers in this season
opener. They’re a sorry 2-9 ATS as road chalk of more than 8 points,
2-8 ATS as double-digit favorites away from Oxford, 1-4 ATS as Game
One favs and 2-7 ATS versus non-conference foes in enemy territory.
Tommy West’s home dog Tigers own much better pointspread stats
for this matchup. Memphis is 12-4 ATS as double-digit non-con HD’s
and the series host has covered six of the last eight meetings. The
Tigers also benefi t from the NCAA’s decision to grant a 6th year of
eligibility to QB Tommy Hudgens. With coach West checking in at 8-2
ATS when taking 7 or more points at the Liberty Bowl, we’ll count on
the striped cats to take this one down to the wire.
Awesome Angle of the Week 13-1
PLAY AGAINST any
college conference team
in Game One of the season
if they are playing with
triple revenge exact.
Marc Lawernce Play Book 9/5
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