SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
OHIO STATE 34 - Navy 16—Ohio State is deep, fast and talented and
probably has 75-80 players who are better college athletes than their
counterparts at the Naval Academy. However, Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo is an
offensive wizard and proved his mettle as a head coach last season in leading
the Middies to their sixth straight season with 8 or more wins and a bowl game.
Buckeyes, who host USC next week, were caught looking ahead to the Trojans
last season and actually trailed Ohio U. 14-12 in the 4th Q. See similar scenario
here. New Navy QB Ricky Dobbs had a good amount of experience directing
the Mids’ run-oriented spread last season (8 rush TDs, 4.7 ypc; 56% passing),
and d.c. Buddy Green has enough of a combination of speed and schemes to
keep Buckeyes from running wild. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-DNP...SR: Ohio State 3-0)
PENN STATE 45 - Akron 10—Penn State has been a steady producer as a
big favorite the last few years, covering 17 of last 24 laying double-digits. See
no reason to buck that trend here. Nittany Lion QB Daryll Clark is arguably the
best in the Big Ten and RBs Evan Royster & Stephfon Green combined for 1814
yards and 17 TDs. The Penn State defense will be able to compensate for
suspension of CB Wallace and loss of LB Mauti to an ACL injury...the LB corps
has a pair of all-Big Ten players in Navorro Bowman & Sean Lee (so what else
is new?). Young Akron DL could get pushed around by rebuilding Nittany OL
that’s probably tired of hearing how it is the big question mark for the team. Zip
QB Jacquemain will miss graduated star RB Kennedy.
(06-PENN STATE -17' 34-16...SR: Penn State 3-0)
***Western Michigan 31 - MICHIGAN 30—Not convinced that Michigan’s
problems are solved with additions of d.c. Greg Robinson and true frosh QB
Tate Forcier, with recent in-house accusations of violations of NCAA practice
time limitations the latest distraction for Rich Rodriguez’ club. Robinson is
reportedly improving the defense, but must remember that last season’s unit
was the worst in school history. Forcier looked great in spring after enrolling
early, but the offense scored 30 pts. or more just once last season and has been
held below 4.0 ypc in 4 of the last 5 seasons. WMU has the offensive weapons
to put the Wolverine “D” to the acid test. Bronco QB Tom Hiller threw for 3725
yards and 36 TDs LY, and RB Brandon West (1026 YR, 5.0 ypc in ‘08) is looking
for a third straight all-MAC season. The Bronco OL is very big and experienced.
This is a bigger game for WMU, and any win (if the can get it) will do for
Wolverines after last season’s debacle. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Michigan 4-0)
*Connecticut 26 - OHIO 17—Tricky opener for Huskies, who unveil their new
no-huddle spread attack on the road sans departed star RB D. Brown (nation’sbest
2083 YR LY). Respected Ohio HC Solich looking to get his veteran
Bobcats back on track in 2009 after LY’s injury-plagued campaign. Still, as long
as new starting UConn QB Frazer (originally at Notre Dame) is accurate enough
to move chains a little, defensively-sound Huskies (allowed 21 points or fewer
in 19 of last 26 games) capable of grinding out hard-fought victory.
(DNP...SR: Connecticut 1-0)
NOTRE DAME 38 - Nevada 30—Although we’re not drinking from the same
Kool-Aid as Lou Holtz and forecasting ND into BCS title game, we’re still a bit
tempted to buck a Nevada side whose defensive depth has been exposed in
recent trips to midwest venues such as Mizzou & Nebraska. And we recall how
Irish bullied another WAC foe (Hawaii) when QB Clausen had time to throw in
LY’s Hawaii Bowl. But Chris Ault still has long-legged QB Kaepernick (2849 YP
& 1130 YR in ‘08!) pulling trigger for potent Wolf Pack “Pistol” to keep Charlie
Weis on edge. TV—NBC (FIRST MEETING)
Georgia 27 - OKLAHOMA STATE 26—With QB Zac Robinson (25 TDP LY),
RB Kendall Hunter (1555 YR), and WR Dez Bryant (87 recs., 19 TDC), OSU has
one of the most explosive offenses (41 ppg) in the nation. But defensive
shortcomings were the major factor in the Cowboys going 1-4 SU vs. highquality
foes LY. HC Mark Richt, meanwhile, has turned talented, speedy UGa
into one of the nation’s premier road warriors—18-3 SU as a visitor the L5Ys (8-
3-1 as a dog overall during that time). LY’s injuries in the pits now find the
Bulldogs bigger, deeper, and more experienced up front. Be mindful that QB
Joe Cox is an experienced RS sr. eager for his chance. TV-ABC
(07-GA -6' 35-14...SR: Ga 1-0)
Kentucky 34 - Miami-Ohio 13—With once-proud but now floundering M-O
(off 3 straight losing campaigns for 1st time in 2 decades!) experiencing
adjustment period under 1st-year HC Mike Haywood (former Notre Dame
assistant), seriously doubt RedHawks ready to hang with confident UK riding
14-game non-conference win streak (2nd longest in nation; 7-1-1 vs. spread last
9 facing non-SEC foes). SEC scouts report Wildcats more-self-assured 6-6 jr.
QB Hartline (55%, 9 TDs, 8 ints.; 6-1 as starter LY) has looked extremely sharp
in recent scrimmages. And with 7th-year HC Rich Brooks calling sr.-laden OL
his most talented & deepest, UK’s balanced offense—featuring explosive WR
Cobb (former QB is running “Wildcat” package)—rolls it up vs. vulnerable Miami
defense (33 ppg LY; 5.4 ypc; only 13 sacks). RedHawks slowish, mistakeprone
QB Raudabaugh (24 ints. vs. 21 TDP in career) is no Sammy Baugh vs.
Wildcats athletic, tight-covering 2ndary, spearheaded by NFL-caliber CB
Lindley. TV—ESPNU (at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio)
(DNP...SR: Kentucky 6-4-1)
*Oklahoma 47 - Byu 16—With HC Bob Stoops seeking an even faster tempo
for his explosive no-huddle offense (55+ points in six straight prior to BCS title
game LY vs. Florida), look for Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (50 TDs vs. only 8
ints.) and 1000-yard RBs DeMarco Murray & Chris Brown to give no quarter to
a BYU defense that is big enough and deep enough, but not fast enough overall.
Scouts report rebuilt Sooner OL coming together rapidly, as is young WR group.
Meanwhile, Cougars have lost their starting LT & LG for the season, causing a
re-shuffled quintet to deal with OU’s premium front four including the likes of AA
DT Gerald McCoy and DEs Auston English, Jeremy Beal & Frank Alexander.
(at Cowboys Stadium Arlington, TX) TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: BYU 1-0)
Missouri 32- Illinois 31—Have loads of respect for UI’s mobile sr. QB Juice
Williams (22 TDP, 719 YR in 2008) and future NFL WR Regis Benn (15.7 ypc
LY). However, Illini have not been a good favorite in recent seasons (7-12
L3Ys), and their defense needs plenty of improvement after yielding 27 ppg LY.
Scouts in Columbia report Missouri’s 6-5 soph QB Gabbert (5 appearances in ‘08)
is a strong-armed quick study of the Tiger spread, which is deep at RB & receiver.
New defensive coordinator Dave Steckel, a former Marine, has whipped the
rebuilt Mizzou defense into a unit faster than expected (but is still concerned
about his secondary). (at Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO) TV—ESPN
(08-Missouri 52-Ill. 42...M.28-24 M.37/226 I.35/81 I.26/42/2/451 M.26/45/1/323 M.1 I.0)
(08-Missouri -9 52-42 07-Missouri -5 40-34 both at St. Louis...SR: Missouri 15-7)
Rice 31 - UAB 30—Blazers were coming together down stretch last year,
splitting their final 6 games SU and covering 6 of last 8. And third-year HC
Callaway has top-notch trigger for his attack in resourceful sr. QB Webb (2367
YP, 1021 YR in 2008). Can’t sell Rice short, however, despite the departure of
record-setting QB Clement and star receivers Dillard & Casey. With almost
everyone back defensively, maligned Owls (allowed 17 points or fewer in 3 of
last 6 games) should continue to improve. And Rice offense has some flexibility
with new signal calllers sr. Shepherd (good runner) and Alabama transfer
Fanuzzi (better passer). (06-RICE +5' 34-33...SR: EVEN 1-1)
WAKE FOREST 35 - Baylor 27—Precocious Baylor QB Griffin threw for
2091 yards & 15 TDs (vs. only 3 ints.) while running for another 846 yards & 13
scores as a true frosh last year. And he’s likely to do substantial damage vs.
Wake defense that lost four players from its back 7 to NFL draft (including LB
Curry, who was selected No. 4 overall). But Griffin’s play-making still won’t be
enough to outdistance a Deacon attack poised to bounce back from sub-par
2008 campaign. Pinpoint sr. QB Skinner, a four-year starter, has completed
67% in his career, Wake has deep TB platoon, and, most importantly, OL is
now seasoned & deep after struggling with inexperience & injuries LY.
CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-W. Forest 41-BAYLOR 13...W.23-15 W.44/156 B.34/94 W.27/36/0/220 B.15/30/
2/156 W.2 B.3)
(08-Wake Forest -12 41-13...SR: Baylor 4-1)
Minnesota 33 - SYRACUSE 20—Insiders believe gung-ho new Syracuse
HC Marrone (N.O. Saints’ offensive coordinator LY) has a good chance to
eventually rebuild his once-proud alma mater. For now, however, the Orange
have little overall depth (18 scholarship players have left program in last six
months!) and a starting QB who last saw game action as a high schooler in
2004. Sure, Greg Paulus, a heavily-recruited local prep legend before opting to
play basketball at Duke, might quickly recapture his previous gridiron magic.
But prefer to back Minny’‘s established jr. QB Weber (39 TDP in last two
seasons), all-conf. sr. WR Decker (151 catches over same span), and veteran
Golden Gopher defense. TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*EASTERN MICHIGAN 27 - Army 26—Little to choose between these two
hungry programs. Army is operating under its third HC in 4 years, as optionadvocate
Rich Ellerson takes the helm. Ellerson definitely starting from scratch
offensively with only 3 returning starters, but word is the team is comfortable
running the triple option. EMU has been favored just twice in two years and
dropped 8 of last 9 vs. spread outside the MAC. The Eagles are also operating
with a new staff under 1st-year HC Ron English, and they’ll have to fix a defense
that’s yielded 5.3 ypc over the last two seasons. RS sr. QB Andy Schmitt puts
up good numbers, but the team is just 12-35 SU since he enrolled at Ypsilanti.
(08-ARMY 17-E. Mich. 13...A.17-16 A.59/341 E.29/117 E.12/30/0/138 A.0/3/0/0 A.2 E.0)
(08-ARMY -1 17-13...SR: Army 2-0)
*WISCONSIN 31 - Northern Illinois 20—Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema
peaked early and has been sliding downhill since he took over in 2006. The
Badgers are rebuilding in 2009 after having returned 18 starters to last year’s
disappointing team that started Wiscy fans grumbling. Bielema will platoon
QBs Scott Tolzien, RS frosh Curt Philips and sr. Dustin Sherer. None figures
to breathe life into the passing game. Bielema says six true frosh will play this
season, and suspensions and injuries have already caused a shuffling of the
depth chart. NIU HC Jerry Kill has enough offensive weapons in soph QB
Harnish and RB Brown to keep Badgers off balance, and Kill says the defense,
which allowed just 18 ppg LY, could be better up front despite graduation
losses. (07-WISC. -23 44-3...SR: Wisconsin 10-1)
PURDUE 30 - Toledo 24—Both teams sport new head coaches in this one,
and both beat Michigan last season, but favor Toledo side that’s returning 18
starters including sr. QB Aaron Opelt, a pair of RBs in Morgan Williams and
DeJuane Collins who combined for 1710 YR, and 3-time all-MAC S Barry
Church. Conversely, the Boilers are going to play at least two QBs until either
Joey Elliott or Caleb TerBush shows an edge running Danny Hope’s spread
attack. Purdue sr. RB Jaycen Taylor (1237 YR, 5.6 ypc career) hasn’t won his
starting job back after recovering from ACL surgery. Look for Boiler poor form
vs. non-Big Ten foes to continue. (07-Purdue -6' 52-24...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Stanford 34 - WASHINGTON STATE 12—Now that slamming sr. RB
Gerhart has decided to delay his baseball career, Pac-10 scouts say the pieces
appear in place for veteran Stanford (17 starters returning) to make its first bowl
run since Ty Willingham’s days. Meanwhile, all they’re hoping for at Wazzu is
to be more competitive than LY, when Cougs allowed more points (570!) than
any team in college history. Sources say Card RS frosh QB Luck (son of former
NFLer Oliver) mature beyond years.
(08-STAN. 58-Wash. St. 0...S.22-14 S.55/344 W.28/73 W.18/32/2/152 S.7/13/0/112 S.0 W.3)
(08-STANFORD -30' 58-0 07-WSU -11 33-17 06-Wsu -10 26-10...SR: Stanford 33-25-1)
****AUBURN 35 - Louisiana Tech 13—La Tech is climbing the ladder in the
WAC (look out Boise State!) under sharp, 3rd-year HC Derek Dooley, but still
need more evidence to support Bulldogs away from Ruston, where they’re a
woeful 3-16 as DD road dog since 2004 (0-2 LY). AU’s new HC Gene Chizik
hired Tulsa’s creative o.c. Gus Malzahn to re-invigorate an attack that
generated only 17 ppg (meager 7 TDP) in ‘08. Look for immediate dividends.
Tigers now-healthy QB Todd (55%; off shoulder surgery), complementary RBs
Tate (664 YR, 4.2 ypc) & RSF McCalebb (considered fastest Tiger runner since
‘06), and a promising set of receivers (led by highly-touted 6-3 frosh Benton)
figure to slice up La Tech defense that yielded a whopping 1002 yds. combined
in lopsided non-conference losses at Kansas & Boise State LY. Bulldogs top
playmakers, 5-9 RB Porter & 5-8 WR/returner Livas, won’t “get off” vs. swift,
seasoned & hungry SEC defense (18 ppg; 7 starters back).
CABLE TV—ESPNU (DNP...SR: Auburn 10-0-1)
*TEXAS A&M 35 - New Mexico 13—With New Mexico adapting to so many
changes (new HC Mike Locksley from Illinois; new, no-huddle, “multi-Lobo”
offense; change to a 4-3 defense from 3-3-5), the stability edge is held by A&M
in only its second season under Mike Sherman. QB-injured NM tossed only four
TDP vs. FBS foes LY, while emerging 6-5 Aggie QB Jerrod Johnson had 21 in
supplanting Stephen McGee. Moreover, speedy soph RB Cyrus Gray will get
help from blue-chip frosh Christine (sic) Michael, described by Sherman as
“ahead of schedule.” Sherman and vet. d.c. Joe Kines have infused speed into
a defense that had only 16 sacks LY.
(08-Tex. A&M 28-N. MEX. 22...N.20-16 N.38/216 T.39/92 N.22/38/2/154 T.13/24/0/144 T.1 N.2)
(08-Texas A&M -2 28-22...SR: Texas A&M 2-0)
*Alabama 16 - Virginia Tech 13—In this anticipated defensive war pitting
two Top Ten squads with national title aspirations, prefer to “take” with veteran
VT, tough to beat by a margin under crafty HC Frank Beamer (only 2 losses by
more than 5 pts. over last 34 games). Hokies developing jr. dual-threat QB
Tyrod Taylor (57%, 738 YR), who has reportedly embraced leadership role TY,
benefits from maturing bunch of WRs (gifted 6-4 RSF Boyce nicknamed “Calvin
Crabtree”) & high quality TEs. And with Hokies terrific trio of RBs (soph Oglesby
& ballyhooed duo of RS frosh R. Williams & true frosh D. Wilson) compensating
for loss of injured star RB Evans, more-varied VT offense maintains some ball
control. Bama’s smart jr. QB McElroy has enormous upside. But sans biggame
experience, underappreciated RB Coffee (1,383 YR, 5.9 ypc), and a
synchronized OL (3 starters gone, including Outland Trophy winner LT Andre
Smith), McElroy hard-pressed to consistently move chains vs. fly-to-the ball,
TO-creating Hokie defense (17 ppg, 35 sacks, 20 ints. LY), anchored by
sackmeister DE Worilds (8 sacks, 10.5 TFL) & lock-down cover CB Virgil, who
figures to shadow Bama’s marvelous WR Julio Jones. (at Georgia Dome in
Atlanta) TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Alabama 10-1)
*Idaho 26 - NEW MEXICO STATE 23—Difficult to make strong case
between two bottom-rung WAC squads. NMS’ new HC DeWayne Walker
(former UCLA d.c.), who has highly-challenging task of resurrecting an Aggie
program that hasn’t been to a bowl since 1960, dramatically shifting offense
from Mumme’s Air Raid to a more ground-oriented attack. And while competent
Aggie RBs Colston & Glynn exploit Idaho’s soft underbelly (5.7 ypc, 34 rush
TDs), would give slight edge to better-balanced Idaho attack, led by veteran,
slimmed-down QB Enderle (2077 YP, 20 TDs, 17 ints.), who has shown a better
touch on deep passes and greater trust in his WRs in recent scrimmages. And
with Idaho RB McCarty (season-high 160 YR in ‘08 tilt) licking his chops,
Vandals continue series control (6-1 vs. spread last 7) and break protracted 14-
game road losing streak.
(08-IDAHO 20-N. Mex. St. 14...N.19-16 I.48/271 N.26/35 N.37/47/2/324 I.7/18/2/59 I.1 N.2)
(08-IDAHO +13 20-14 07-NMS -9 45-31 06-IDAHO -1 28-20...SR: Idaho 11-4)
*UTEP 34 - Buffalo 21—Generally speaking, it’s U Take ‘Em Points in
UTEP’s games (10-18 as a favorite L5Ys; 17-11 as a dog), but hometown
Miners own a substantial QB edge & revenge motivation. Normally-careful QB
Trevor Vittatoe (33 TDP, only 9 ints. ‘09) was picked off three times LY in
UTEP’s embarrassing season-opening visit to Buffalo. Now, the experienced
Miner offense—with quick James Thomas appearing in shotgun and at WR—
is reportedly supported by a vastly-improved, healthier (key S Braxton Amy is
back), and deeper defense that’s eager to rattle Bulls’ young QBs, who could be
hard-pressed to get the ball to deluxe WR Naaman Roosevelt (104 recs. LY!).
(08-BUFFALO 42-Utep 17...B.23-16 B.50/263 U.26/67 B.10/16/0/221 U.20/37/3/199 B.2 U.0)
(08-BUFFALO -3 42-17...SR: Buffalo 1-0)
*CALIFORNIA 31 - Maryland 17—Cal’s revenge motivation welldocumented
after heavily-favored Bears snoozed thru early going of LY’s early
kickoff time in upset loss at College Park. And Pac-10 sources say it’s Jeff
Tedford’s veteran defense that could allow Bears to seriously challenge SC in
Pac-10. But before dismissing Maryland, remember that Terps beat four Top
25 teams LY and return key weapons QB Turner and star RB Scott. By the way,
who is that man on Terp sidelines? (“The Fridge” reportedly down 100 lbs. in
latest diet!) CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-MARY. 35-Calif. 27...C.26-19 M.47/141 C.23/38 C.33/60/1/423 M.15/20/0/156 M.2 C.0)
(08-MARYLAND +14' 35-27...SR: Maryland 1-0)
SOUTHERN CAL 38 - San Jose State 14—Safe to say that SJSU didn’t
consult Bill Snyder when putting together ‘09 slate (Spartans open with LY’s 2nd
and 3rd-rated teams, SC & Utah). Moreover, Dick Tomey was desperate enough
to jump-start LY’s sluggish “O” that he imported Arena Ball o.c. Terry Malley to
pump some life into recently-dormant SJSU attack & sr. QB Reed. But at huge
price, Spartans might offer better value than SC bunch that’s starting true frosh
QB Barkley and might not show too much before next week’s Ohio State
showdown. (DNP...SR: Southern Cal 3-0)
*ARIZONA 27 - Central Michigan 20—Arizona found it easy to play the bully
LY when sr. QB Tuitama was finally comfy with o.c. Dykes’ spread and underfire
HC Stoops was eager to run up scores. But with dynamics a bit different in
‘09 (inexperience at QB with sophs Scott & Foles, and pressure temporarily off
Stoops), not sure Cats offer similar value as chalk. Prolific QB LeFevour (74
career TDP) still in fold for CMU, and Chips expect experienced “D” (10 starters
back) to be improved. (FIRST MEETING)
*UCLA 30 - San Diego State 19—MWC sources suggest keeping an eye on
SDSU, especially with new HC Hoke (12-1 while at Ball State LY) hiring a pair
of shrewd coordinators (Al Borges for “O” and ex-New Mexico HC Rocky long for
“D”) that both ironically have UCLA ties. At a minimum, expect Aztecs to run and
defend run better in ‘09, which should help preclude Bruins and their own iffy
attack (scouts say new RS frosh QB Prince and rebuilt infantry both works in
progress) from extending margin. (DNP...SR: UCLA 20-0-1)
*Lsu 29 - WASHINGTON 17—New U-Dub HC Sarkisian (most-recently
USC’s o.c.) gets to find out what life is like on other end of spectrum after
inheriting Huskies’ 0-12 mess. But Pac-10 sources believe UW would have at
least won a few games had Tim Tebow-like QB Locker stayed healthy in ‘08,
and the mix of maturity (16 starters) and new staff have at least rekindled hope
in Seattle. SEC sources expect improved QB play (playmaking soph Jefferson)
and “D” (with new d.c. Chavis) from LSU. But remember that Tigers have
covered just 5 of last 23 on board. CABLE TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: LSU 1-0)
ADDED GAMES
*NEBRASKA 30 - Florida Atlantic 13—Insiders in Lincoln say jr. QB Zac Lee
(only 1 of 2 LY, but was a prolific no-huddle QB in JC) has been a revelation for
the Cornhuskers, while A-A DT Ndamukong Suh has been a terror in preseason
workouts. Admittedly, FAU has not done well (2-12-1 vs. the spread L5Ys vs.
BCS conference teams) in the past stepping up in class. However, Howard
Schnellenberger now has a bigger, stronger, and deeper team than in those
formative years of his program. Sr. Rusty Smith (24 TDs, 14 ints. LY) provides
poise and leadership at QB and has a veteran receiving corps. Owls might grab
a “hang in there.” (FIRST MEETING)
*CLEMSON 30 - Middle Tennessee State 16—Sun Belt sources say athletic
Middle Tennessee jr. QB Dasher (56% completions & 530 YR in 2007, but only
limited snaps LY) looking very comfortable at controls of new o.c. Franklin’s
pass-oriented spread attack. Although speedy Clemson defense figures to be
pretty salty in 2009, RS frosh Tiger QB Parker probably lacks enough rapport
with rebuilt receiving corps to extend margin vs. plucky Blue Raiders.
(DNP...SR: Clemson 1-0)
*TEXAS 54 - La.-Monroe 6—ULM has a respectable 5-5 spread record the
L4Ys getting more than three TDs. However, it could be argued that Texas is
better than any team in that group. Moreover, the Warhawks are breaking in a
new starting QB and changing their undersized defense (6.0 ypc vs. FBS foes
LY) to a 3-3-5. Thus, the Longhorns’ big, veteran OL should have its way on the
ground, making things even easier for Colt McCoy (76%, 34 TDs, 8 ints.). Mack
Brown not known to humiliate outclassed foes and would like his backups to get
experience, but his defense (only 6 ints. LY) is eager to show improvement.
(FIRST MEETING)
***TENNESSEE 45 - Western Kentucky 3—Even with UCLA payback on
deck, inclined to lay the lumber with re-dedicated UT under impetuous HC Lane
Kiffin, eager to make a big splash in his Knoxville debut. WKU has brand new
DL. So, watch Vols humongous OL open gaping holes for “franchise” frosh RB
B. Brown (considered nation’s premier prep back) & productive sr. RB Hardesty
(6 TDs), while much-criticized QB Crompton & No. 2 Stephens (expect both to
play) exploit hurtin’ Hilltopper 2ndary missing suspended soph SS Beard (teamhigh
3 ints.). WKU’s unproven QBs (sr. B. Smith or RSF Jakes) could
self-destruct vs. UT’s aggressive, Tampa Two (under Bucs former d.c. Monte
Kiffin), spearheaded by brilliant SS Eric Berry (projected 1st-round NFL pick in
2010) benefiting from constant pressure applied by rotating front 4 (Vols DL
coach Ed Orgeron says he’s 9-10 deep!). And note, outclassed WKU (only 3rd
year since leaving Div. I-AA) has dropped 5 straight vs. SEC foes by avg. 35-
ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
SOUTH CAROLINA at NC STATE (Thursday, September 3)... NCS
closed with a rush last season, covering its last 8 games. Although
Wolfpack was not favored in any of those! NCS just 1-6 as chalk since
‘06 (1-2 under O’Brien since '07), but Wolfpack was 5-0 vs. spread in
revenge role LY and will be looking for some after absorbing 34-0
pasting in last season’s opener. Spurrier has covered just 5 of last 18
on board (5-11-2 vs. line). He’s also just 2-6 last 8 as dog, and 2-7 vs.
number last 9 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Tech edge-NCS,
based on recent trends.
UTAH STATE at UTAH (Thursday, September 3)...Road team is 4-0-
1 vs. line last 5 and 7-1-1 against spread last 9 in this in-state rivalry.
Utes 14-6 vs. number last 20 on board overall, although they were
only 1-2 vs. line laying DDs at Salt Lake City LY. Note Utah “over” 11-
2 last 13 on board. Utags not bad lately, either, 13-6 vs. spread last 19
on board, and covered 8 of last 12 away from Logan. Andersen debut
for Utags. Tech edge-Utah State, based on series and team trends.
OREGON at BOISE STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Chip Kelly
debut at UO. Bellotti was 13-6 vs. line his last 19 as dog away from
home. Ducks 6-2 vs. line in non-Pac 10 action since ‘07 with one of
those defeats vs. Boise LY. Boise only 2-2 vs. line on blue carpet LY
but 39-15 in role since ‘99. Interestingly, Broncos have covered only
2 of last 7 in first game of season on board. Tech edge-slight to
Oregon, based on team trends.
TROY at BOWLING GREEN (Thursday, September 3)...Troy now 7-
2 vs. number last 9 as visiting favorite. Trojans also 8-4 vs. line last 12
vs. non-Belt foes. Clawson debut at Bowling Green, which
nonetheless covered 12 of last 17 on board for Brandon. Falcons were
3-0 as a dog LY and are 7-1 as a regular-season dog since ‘07, also 5-
2 vs. line in reg.-season vs. non-MAC foes since ‘07. Tech edge-slight
to Troy, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Ball
begins the Stan Parrish era. Cards, however, were only 2-5 vs.
number laying DDs the past two glory years under Brady Hoke despite
19-10 spread mark last 29 on board. Todd Dodge just 4-8 vs. line LY,
and UNT only 7-14 vs. spread as visitor dating back to ‘06. Dodge also
just 6-11 as DD dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based
on UNT negatives.
TULSA at TULANE (Friday, September 4)...Tulsa has won and
covered handily last 4 meetings, all by 24 points or more. Todd
Graham teams have also won and covered their last 3 openers with
ease (‘06 at Rice, last two years at Tulsa). Wave really faded down
stretch in ‘08, dropping last 4 vs. number as well as 7 of last 9. Tulane
also no covers its last 4 at home in ‘08. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on
series trends.
NAVY at OHIO STATE...Ugh! Tressel just 1-5 against number last 6
laying DDs at big horseshoe. Tressel also just 1-4 against points last
5 hosting non-Big Ten foes. OSU has also failed to cover last two
openers on board. Niumatalolo only 3-4 as dog away from Annapolis
LY, what used to be Navy’s primo role, although Mids still 24-12 vs.
number away from home since ‘04. Navy 5-1 vs. line getting 20 or
more since ‘02, back to the early days of Paul Johnson. Tech edge-
Navy, based on team trends.
AKRON at PENN STATE...Shades has become much meaner with
age, now a fine bully with a 14-5 spread mark last 19 laying DDs.
Shades also now 6-1 vs. number last 7 hosting non-Big Ten foes, and
he’s 16-8 against line his last 24 at Happy Valley. Zips, however,
covered all 4 outside MAC LY and are now 8-3 vs. line last 11 vs. nonconference
foes. Akron has also covered its last 3 tries getting 20 or
more since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on recent bully tendencies.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Let’s see if Rodriguez can
put last season behind him and begin to reverse the trend at Ann
Arbor, which has been very negative (2-10 vs. line LY, now 2-12 vs.
number last 14 reg.-season games. Wolverines' home nonconference
spread woes go back to Lloyd Carr’s days, however, now
2-8 vs. line their last 10 hosting such foes, and 2-11 last 13 in role.
WMU only 4-7 vs. line last 11 away from Waldo Stadium, and Cubit
has failed to cover last 3 openers on board. Tech edge-slight to
WMU, based on recent Michigan negatives.
UCONN at OHIO...Solich 14-7 vs. line as dog since ‘06. Solich also
6-0 vs. line in non-MAC action the past two seasons. Ohio U also 8-4
vs. line as host since ‘06. UConn 4-1 vs. line as road chalk the past
three seasons, 6-2 in role since ‘04, although Huskies just 5-9 vs.
spread their last 14 on board since late ‘’07. Tech edge-slight to
Ohio, based on Solich dog marks.
NEVADA at NOTRE DAME...Ault just 1-4 vs. line last 5 as dog, Ault
also just 4-9 vs. line facing non-WAC teams away from Reno since
returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in ‘04. Weis, however, no covers in
two tries as DD home chalk in ‘08, now 1-6 laying DD at home since
‘06. Irish also mere 7-15 vs. number last 22 at South Bend, and have
failed to cover opener in past three seasons. Tech edge-slight to
Nevada, based on ND/Weis negatives.
GEORGIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Richt 7-1 vs. line last 8 tries as
road dog. Bulldogs have also covered last 5 vs. non-SEC foes away
from Athens, and are 15-8 vs. spread last 23 games away from Sanford
Stadium. Note that OSU closed ‘08 by failing to cover its last 4 games
after winning its first 8 vs. number. Gundy, however, did cover all 5
tries as home chalk LY, and has covered 4 straight at Stillwater vs.
non-Big XII foes (although Dawgs are a cut above those other
opponents). Tech edge-Georgia, based on extended Richt road/dog
numbers.
KENTUCKY vs. MIAMI-OHIO (at Paul Brown Bengals Stadium,
Cincinnati)...Ugh! UK 7-1-1 vs. number its last 9 facing non-SEC
opposition. Rich Brooks also 9-4-1 vs. number last 14 away from
Lexington. Haywood debut at Miami-Ohio. RedHawks just 4-11 vs.
number last 15 on board, and lost 8 games by 15 points or more LY
under Montgomery (although Miami was 3-1 as DD dog in ‘08).
Expect UK to get the majority of the crowd for this one in Cincy. Tech
edge-Kentucky, based on team trends.
BYU vs. OKLAHOMA (at Jerry Jones Cowboy Stadium,
Arlington, TX)...Bob Stoops 10-3 vs. line LY, now 29-14-1 last 44 on
board dating to late ‘05. Stoops has covered his last 9 reg.-season
games vs. non-Big XII opposition. Sooners also 9-1 vs. number last 10
laying DDs (including 4-0 in role away from Norman LY). BYU was 0-
3 vs. line as dog away from Provo LY, and dropped 8 of its last 9 vs.
spread in ‘08. Cougars also just 1-6 against line last 7 vs. non-MWC
opposition. Tech edge-Oklahoma, based on team trends.
MISSOURI vs. ILLINOIS (at Edward Jones Dome, St.
Louis)...Mizzou has won and covered all four meetings since ‘02,
including wild shootouts the past two years in St. Louis. Pinkel 10-3
vs. number last 13 vs. non-Big XII foes, although Tigers have dropped
their last 3 vs. number as a dog. Pinkel also dropped 7 of last 9 vs.
number in ‘08 as things began to cool down a bit for Mizzou. Zook,
however, just 2-5 as chalk LY and 7-12 vs. line in role since ‘06 (and
that includes 5-2 chalk mark in Rose Bowl year of ’07). Tech edge-
Mizzou, based on team and series trends.
RICE at UAB...Teams haven’t met since ‘06. Rice is “over” 30-6
since ‘06! Bailiff 8-4 vs. line as dog since ‘07, and Owls 14-7 vs.
number their last 21 games on board overall. Rice was also 7-0 vs.
line in games with spreads of 7 or fewer LY. UAB just chalk one time
in past two years for Callaway, and Blazers weren’t favored at all in
‘08. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.
BAYLOR at WAKE FOREST...Ugh! Interesting rematch of LY’s
opener won by Wake 41-13, although that was Art Briles’ first game at
Baylor and Robert Griffin had yet to emerge for Bears. By the time
‘08 concluded, Baylor was a hot pointspread commodity, covering
its last 5 and 8 of its last 10. Grobe 7-3 vs. line last 10 vs. non-ACC
foes but has surprisingly failed to cover last 3 at Winston-Salem
hosting non-conference opponents. Tech edge-slight to Baylor,
based on recent trends.
MINNESOTA at SYRACUSE...Marrone debut at Syracuse.
Robinson was just 4-9 vs. line his last 13 as Carrier Dome dog (2-7 last 9
in role), so Marrone will try to reverse those numbers. Gophers cooled off
late LY when dropping 4 of last 5 vs. number, although Minnesota did
cover all 5 of its regular-season games away from Minneapolis. Tech
edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent team trends.
\
ARMY at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Ugh! Ellerson (Army) and English
(EMU) debuts. Ypsilanti not much of a home edge for Eagles lately,
they were 0-3 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium LY and just 3-9 vs. spread
last 12 as host. EMU was also just 0-1 in chalk role the past three
seasons, so this is not a familiar spot for Eagles. EMU also just 1-8
against spread last 9 against non-MAC foes. Army was 4-1 as true
visiting dog LY (not counting neutral field game vs. Navy). Black
Knights also won and covered a close one at home (17-13) over EMU
in ‘08. Tech edge-Army, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN... Bielema losing a bit of
pointspread magic, he’s now just 7-15 vs. spread his last 22 games on
board (and Wisconsin wouldn’t have covered vs. Cal Poly and The
Citadel had those games been on board the past two seasons).
Badgers also just 3-6 vs. line last 9 laying DD numbers. NIU 6-2 vs.
line last 8 as true visitor, and has covered last 4 as true visitor in nonconference
games. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent team trends.
TOLEDO at PURDUE...Hope (Purdue) and Beckman (Toledo)
debuts. Boilermakers just 4-9 vs. line last 13 laying points vs. nonconference
foes. Although one of those covers came vs. Toledo at
Ross-Ade Stadium in ‘07. Rockets were 3-3 vs. line away from Glass
Bowl LY but just 5-12 vs. line in role since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to
Toledo, based on recent Purdue shortcomings.
STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE...Cougs surprisingly showed
some value down the stretch of horrid ‘08, covering their last 4 games
after dropping first 8 vs. number. WSU only 1-3 vs. line as home dog
LY. Tree in rare road chalk role (only 0-2 in role since ‘04), but
Harbaugh did smash Cougs by 58-0 count LY. Harbaugh also 3-0 vs.
line laying 7 or more since taking Cardinal job in ‘07. Tech edgeslight
to Stanford, based on team trends.
LA TECH at AUBURN...Chizik debut at Auburn. Tigers have had
trouble handling bigger numbers at home lately, just 4-12 vs. number
last 16 as Jordan-Hare chalk. Disastrous ‘08 spread year for Auburn,
just 2-9 vs. line. La Tech, however, just 1-6 vs. number last 7 as road
dog for Derek Dooley, and no covers last 3 as DD dog after 4-1 spread
mark in first 5 in role two seasons ago. Tech edge-slight to La Tech,
based on recent Auburn woes.
NEW MEXICO at TEXAS A&M...Locksley debut at UNM. Rocky
Long had been notoriously tough in road dog role (13-7 from ‘04-08),
so let’s see if Locksley can replicate. Although UNM covered just 2 of
its last 9 road games for Rocky. Mike Sherman was just 0-2 vs. line as
DD home chalk in ‘08 debut season for A&M, and Aggies just 2-5 vs.
number at Kyle Field LY. Ags also just 1-4 vs. line hosting nonconference
foes the past two seasons. Tech edge-slight to A&M,
based on recent Lobo road woes.
VIRGINIA TECH vs. ALABAMA (at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Ugh!
Similar opening week spot vs. Clemson at Atlanta was a real
launching pad game for Bama’s ‘08 season. Nick covered first 5 away
from home last season before stumbling twice on road (SEC title and
Sugar Bowl) to end season. Beamer has been a very accomplished
dog for many years, as VT now 10-3 as short since ‘04, and 13-4 in role
as dog since ‘01. Tech edge-Beamer, based on extended dog mark.
IDAHO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ugh! Debut game for DeWayne
Walker at NMSU. Home team has won and covered last 3 years in this
WAC series. Under Mumme, however, Aggies only 1-4 vs. line at Las
Cruces LY. Akey just 1-5 vs. line as road dog LY and 2-8 last 10 in role
for Vandals. Idaho also just 5-15 vs. line last 20 on board for Akey.
Tech edge-slight to NMSU, based on series home and team trends.
BUFFALO at UTEP...Revenge for Mike Price after losing opener 42-
17 at Buffalo LY. Miners, however, have been poor as chalk lately
(2-7 at Sun Bowl in role since ‘06, 2-10 overall as chalk since ‘06).
Meanwhile, Turner Gill has covered 9 of his last 10 away from home,
and dog team was 11-3 vs. spread in Buffalo games LY. Tech edge-
Buffalo, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at CAL...Big revenge game for Cal after losing at
Maryland 35-27 in that early-morning start last season. Note that
Tedford last year rediscovered some of that Strawberry Canyon magic
from earlier in his Cal career, as Bears were spotless 7-0 SU and vs.
number in Berkeley last season, all as chalk! Cal also 4-1 laying DDs
in ‘08 after 1-9 mark previous 10 in role. Ralph was 2-0 as DD dog in
‘08 and is 8-3 vs. number last 11 in role, but no covers last 3 as nonconference
visitor. Tech edge-slight to Cal, based on recent trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Spartans really cooled off
down stretch last season, dropping last 5 SU and vs. number. Tomey
just 2-7 vs. line as DD road dog since ‘06, although he’s 2-2 that span
when getting 20 or more. Carroll was 3-1 laying 30 or more LY but
he’s only 6-6 vs. line at Coliseum the past two seasons. SC also 8-2 vs.
line last 10 at home vs. non-Pac 10 foes. Tech edge-slight to SC,
based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at ARIZONA...Mike Stoops was able to alter a
long-standing trend of poor Arizona spread efforts at home when
covering 6 of 7 at Tucson last season (4-1 as home chalk, including 4-
0 as DD home chalk as Cats emerged as a bully!). Previously, Cats
were notorious underachievers, especially as home chalk when
covering just 1 of 8 in role the previous 4 seasons. CMU began to lose
a little pointspread magic last season as it gets further away from the
Brian Kelly years, as Chips just 5-6 vs. number in ‘08 after many
outstanding spread numbers the previous few years. CMU still 8-4 as
visiting dog since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on recent
home success.
SAN DIEGO STATE at UCLA...Neuheisel covered his only two tries
as chalk LY, but we are inclined to dismiss those results against the
mega-awful Washington teams. Previously Neuheisel teams were
notorious chalk underachievers, covering just 5 of previous 23 laying
points (5-16-2) in role at U-Dub. Bruins, however, have offered surprising
value at Rose Bowl lately, standing 21-6 vs. number last 27 as host (5-2
under Neuheisel in ‘08). This is Brady Hoke debut at SDSU, his Ball State
teams covered 15 of their last 22 as a dog. Aztecs were 5-11 as road
dog under Chuck Long, but he is no longer on sidelines. Tech edge-
SDSU, based on extended Neuheisel and Hoke trends.
LSU at WASHINGTON...Sarkisian debut for Huskies, and nowhere
to go but up for U-Dub after LY’s 0-12 season that included 10 straight
spread losses (!) to end campaign! Huskies still just 4-14 vs. number
their last 18 as dog, however, and 2-9 vs. spread last 11 in Seattle.
LSU making rare trip to the west, and worth noting that Les Miles now
0-6 vs. number last 6 laying DDs. Tigers also just 5-16-2 vs. spread
their last 23 on board. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on recent UDub
negatives.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at NEBRASKA...Ugh! Huskers petitioning for
membership in Sun Belt with three Belt teams on this season’s slate!
Pelini only 2-3 laying DDs in ‘08, Huskers 2-5 last 7 in role, and 4-10
vs. line last 14 in Lincoln (3-5 under Pelini LY). Schnellenberger has
had problems as road dog lately (3-9 as DD road dog since ‘06) and
just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 visiting non-Belt teams. Although FAU is
11-5 vs. line last 16 on board, and some of those poor numbers reflect
then-downtrodden Owl teams of a few years ago. Tech edge-slight to
FAU, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at CLEMSON...MTSU was 3-1 as DD
dog in ‘09, and is now 5-1 vs. number last 6 outside of Belt. Blue
Raiders also a respectable 7-4 vs. line last 11 vs. non-Belt foes in reg.-
season play away from Murfreesboro. Dabo covered a few games
down stretch for Clemson LY but Tigers still just 4-10 vs. number last
14 games on board, and just 9-18 last 27 on board overall. Tech
edge-MTSU, based on team trends.
UL-MONROE at TEXAS...Mack was 7-2 laying DDs in ‘08 and is 8-1
laying 30 or more since ‘05. Mack also 11-3 vs. line vs. nonconference
foes in reg.-season play since ‘05. Weatherbie has been
a decent road/dog play in recent years (15-7 vs. spread away since
‘06, 17-9 as dog that span including 14-6 on road). Warhawks 4-4
their last 8 getting 20 or more. Tech edge-slight to Texas, based on
recent Mack bully trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...Kiffin debut at UT. Vols
had actually improved a bit vs. number at home in the last few years
of the Fulmer regime (13-8 vs. line at Knoxville the past three
seasons, 5-6 as DD home chalk that span after 2-6 mark in role
between ‘04-05). WKU just a baby team in upper division and now in first
full season as Belt member, and Tops were only 2-7 vs. line LY (1-2
getting 20 or more). Tech edge-slight to UT, based on team trends.
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
COLLEGE RELEASES
GEORGIA
Specific situations have proven quite profitable for Georgia
under HC Mark Richt, and the Bulldogs find themselves in a few of
those for their opener Saturday afternoon at Stillwater vs.
Oklahoma State. In particular, Georgia has excelled for Richt away
from Athens, where the Dawgs are 7-1 vs. line last 8 as an
underdog, have covered their last 5 vs. non-SEC foes, as well as
15 of their last 23 overall. Those numbers highlight Georgia as
featured plays in both the Power Underdog and College Coach
as Dog systems vs. the Cowboys. Also note that OSU dropped its
last 4 vs. the line a year ago.
KENTUCKY
Kentucky supporters will gladly put the John Calipari “hoop
hype” on hold Saturday afternoon when making the short trip to
Cincinnati for the '09 gridiron opener against rebuilding Miami-Ohio
at Paul Brown Stadium. Note that the Wildcats have excelled for HC
Rich Brooks when facing non-SEC foes lately, standing 7-1-1 vs.
the number their last 9 in that role. UK is also 9-4-1 vs. the spread
its last 14 away from Lexington. As for the RedHawks, note their
subpar 4-11 spread mark their last 15 games on the board, with 8 of
their 10 SU defeats last year by 15 points or more.
MISSOURI
The border rivalry between Missouri and Illinois has certainly
favored the Tigers this decade, as the Columbia bunch has won
and covered the last four meetings. And pointspread factors
indicate that Mizzou might be worth another look Saturday
afternoon at St. Louis, especially considering the Tigers’ recent
successes (10-3 vs. line last 13) vs. non-Big XII opposition. Mizzou
is also a featured Power Underdog and Rivalry Dog this week.
As for the Illini, note their problems laying points under HC Ron Zook
(just 7-12 vs. number as chalk since ‘06).
ARMY
It’s rare whenever Eastern Michigan lays points, which is a prime
reason the Eagles are a featured “go against” play this week in the
Impotent Favorites system as they host resurgent Army at
Ypsilanti. New EMU HC Ron English will be attempting to reverse
some extended losing patterns, especially at home where the
Eagles dropped all 3 vs. the number in ‘08 and have lost 9 of their
last 12 spread decisions. EMU is also 1-8 vs. the line its last 9 non–
MAC games on the board. Meanwhile, the Black Knights could be
ready to surprise under new HC Rich Ellerson, and note they were
4-1 vs. the line as a true visitor last season.
SAN DIEGO STATE
Extended coaching pointspread trends indicate visiting San
Diego State should be worth a look late Saturday afternoon at the
Rose Bowl vs. UCLA. Consider that new Aztec HC Brady Hoke
made a name for himself at Ball State when his Cards covered 15 of
their last 22 as an underdog, qualifying SDSU as a featured
College Coach as Dog play with Hoke this week. As for Bruin HC
Rick Neuheisel, his extended marks as a favorite are abysmal,
dating back to his U-Dub days; his teams were 5-16-2 their last 23
as chalk before a pair of covers vs. woeful Washington and Wazzu
teams a year ago.
The Gold Sheet 9/5
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