The Dean's List: Be very quiet. We're hunting upsets
By JASON LOGAN
The Appalachian State Mountaineers' 2007 upset of the Michigan Wolverines has become the Kennedy Assassination of college football moments – a true “Where were you when...” sporting event.
Me? I was actually lounging poolside at my former residence on Sept. 1, 2007. Somehow the planets aligned, giving me a sunny day off on the opening Saturday of college football. I listened to the first three quarters through my living room window but had to witness the closing minutes of the game with my own eyes.
As the Division 1-AA Mountaineers kicked a field goal to take a 34-32 lead with under 30 seconds left, I cracked beer No. 9 of a 12-beer day. And when they blocked Michigan's field goal attempt in the dying seconds, that beer fell to the ground. I'm sure the stain is still on the carpet today – just like the memory of that game is still in our heads.
The early season shocker has become a trend the last two years. In 2008, the season opened with Arkansas State's 18-14 win at Texas A&M as 18-point underdogs. Then, East Carolina gave football bettors back-to-back early upsets. The underdog Pirates opened the schedule with a win at Virginia Tech before defeating West Virginia at home in Week 2.
This rash of improbabilities has books and bettors on upset alert in the opening weeks of the 2009 college football calendar.
Don't be fooled by those big pointspreads or the “We don't take anyone lightly” tripe the coaches feed the beat writers. The next big upset is out there lurking. You just need to know how to hunt it.
It seems Notre Dame haters (and there are a ton of them) have been quick to pull the trigger on the Nevada Wolf Pack as the upset special in Week 1. But going into South Bend (with that pass defense) and taking the opening game from a talented Irish offense isn't easy, no matter how much you hate the movie Rudy. Other false idols being worshipped by the upset sect are Maryland over Cal and Virginia Tech over Alabama.
These teams could viably cover the spread in those contests (I have the Terps +21.5 in our Week 1 staff picks), but pegging those upsets would be like reeling in Nemo when you're fishing for Moby Dick.
Looking back at Michigan's loss, the biggest thing going against the Wolverines was their lack of urgency. As a perennial powerhouse in the college ranks, Michigan expected everything to just work out against Appy State.
It had home-field advantage, a surplus of five-star talent and the stigma of being an 11-time national champion. But when the Mountaineers didn't tuck tail and run, UM was left looking at the clock in disbelief.
One team that carries this false sense of entitlement into this season is Mississippi, who opens as a 16.5-point road favorite against the Memphis Tigers Sunday.
After being the only team to defeat the BCS champion Florida Gators and an impressive win over Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl last year, there is a ton of buzz surrounding Ole Miss this offseason.
The Rebels have a ton of talent on offense behind junior quarterback Jevan Snead - and they've heard that over and over again this summer.
If the constant heavy petting around Oxford doesn't have the Rebels' heads feeling two sizes bigger, then the attention of the national media and No. 8 ranking in the polls will have filled their egos to the tipping point.
Memphis always gets fired up for this yearly meeting and relishes the role of underdog. These programs have opened the schedule against each other the past five seasons with Ole Miss going 4-1 but covering in just two of those contests.
The campuses are just 85 miles apart, making this one of college football's most understated rivalries. And rivalry games breed big upsets. Just look at Texas Tech’s win over Texas last November.
Ole Miss also has big weakness below the neck heading into 2009. The offensive line is missing major cogs from 2008 and is depending on inexperienced players to step up. Those talents will come around once they get a few games under their belts. But there will be first-game jitters and mistakes, especially on the road.
Memphis is leaning on seven returning defensive starters. The Tigers’ depth chart is also bolstered by several SEC and JuCo transfers. There is a lot of talent at linebacker including senior Greg Jackson, who was the team's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008.
The Rebels also have trouble defending the pass. Last season, they were dead last in passing defense in the SEC. They allowed almost 222 passing yards per game and watched 18 balls soar into the end zone.
Mississippi's top corners, Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn, stand 5-foot-9 and 5-foot-11. They'll be looking up at the Tigers receiving corps which features Carlos Singleton and Duke Calhoun, who tower over Ole Miss at 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-4.
Memphis' running game may get all the attention, but with senior quarterback Arkelon Hall back behind center and more comfortable in the spread offense, the Tigers’ air attack could be just as potent. Last year against Ole Miss, Hall shared duties under center and put up 152 yards and an interception. Singleton caught six balls for 89 yards while Calhoun wrangled four catches for 43 yards.
Of course, setting up the pass is the crash-and-dash stylings of senior running back Curtis Steele along with Wisconsin-transfer Lance Smith. Memphis rumbled for almost 195 yards per game and ranked 23rd in the nation in 2008.
Even if those obvious edges aren’t evidence enough to convince bettors to take the Tigers at +600 on the moneyline, it should have them feeling pretty warm and fuzzy about taking the 16.5 points.
But if Sunday's game does turn out to be one of those “Where were you when…” upsets, I expect most people to say they were either picking their jaws up off the ground or emailing Jason Logan to thank him for the ton of money they just won.
College Four-play: Week 1 predictions
By JON CAMPBELL
Perhaps you’ve heard: it’s the first week of college football. And that means you can finally start spending that morsel of your bankroll you’ve been clinging to since the end of basketball season.
Or, perhaps for those who’ve been unaffected by the new economy, it means it’s time to put a big number back in that cavernous account of yours and attack another season with blissful, misguided hope.
Normally I would be just like you. I would be hyperventilating over the first week of collegiate action. But this is no normal year.
Lately I am seeing some seriously disconcerting stuff that is making me question things. Foofy stuff. The kind of stuff that is making me think this isn’t your grandfather’s college football anymore.
Just this week, for example, Rich Rodriguez broke down crying – crying! – at the Big Ten coaches press conference all because a few sloth players accused him of working them too hard.
The only one of the accusers who is still playing who would identify himself was Toney Clemons, a receiver who transferred to Colorado. Yeah, that Colorado. The official party program of the West that has seen more rape allegations over the past 10 years than it has Big 12 North titles.
C’mon Rich, you don’t cry. You lash out.
Mike Gundy style. Dan Hawkins style. Go find your women’s basketball coach, Kevin Borseth, somewhere on campus and get a lesson from him on how to throw a tantrum if you have to.
Anything but cry. Keep that stuff in the powder room.
But that’s not all. No ladies, there’s more.
If you go to The Oregonian’s website, you can play a little game of dress up dolls with the Ducks’ uniforms. You simply click the arrows to pick the colors and design of each part of the uniform and find out what goes best with Jeremiah Masoli’s eyes.
Did you know there are over 160 possible combinations? How special!
It gets worse.
Apparently the University of Central Florida is changing their tailgating policy this year to ban the consumption of alcohol on campus prior to 8 a.m. on game day when games are played after 6 p.m. When games are held before 6 p.m., you can’t start boozing on campus before noon.
Needless to say, the fans are outraged. Many are threatening to cancel their season tickets and pull their donations. There is even a Facebook group which has grown to about 1000 members.
Like these folks, I have never heard such lightweight nonsense in my life. More importantly, home-field advantage just lost about two points for UCF in the eyes of oddsmakers.
But perhaps the biggest hike-up-your-skirt issue of all comes from the slate of games itself this week. Out of 78 games, 37 of them are Division 1-A teams against D 1-AA teams. (I refuse to get into this FBS stuff.)
That means we won’t be able to bet on about half of this week’s action – or watch it for that matter because I saw enough road kill on the side of the highway this summer to last me until Christmas.
And don’t even get me started about this pregame handshake deal that’s going to take place between opposing teams this weekend. I’ll throw up all over my keyboard if I get into that.
But I digress. We are degenerates and college football is our game. So without further delay, let’s move on to the picks and hope this season develops a little more testosterone once we get a few hits under our belts.
In case you’re new to Four-play, you can catch me every week throughout the season. If recent years are any indication, it’s pretty much a guarantee I’ll fall somewhere around .500 so don’t tell your wife the recession is over just yet.
Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (-6.5, 38)
It’s always fun when a fishing trip becomes the biggest story of the biggest game of the first Saturday of the season, isn’t it?
Looks like the NCAA didn’t catch anything, so to speak, so Bama’s top two offensive threats - Julio Jones and Mark Ingram - will play for the Tide. If you need further reasons to take Bama, check out this great blog by Josh Nagel.
Pick: Bama
Colorado State vs. Colorado (-10.5, 54)
Have you heard Coach Hawkins’ team motto for this season?
“Ten wins. No excuses.”
Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn is working on a motto of his own. It goes a little something like this: “Hey Dan. You’re fired.”
Pick: Colorado State +10.5
Miami vs. Florida State (-5.5, 48)
Let’s just go ahead and stretch this column out until Monday, shall we? Call me a man-whore for page views if you must.
There are a bunch of reasons I like Miami here but let’s go with this one: the Noles haven’t decided on a starting place kicker yet. There’s a little phrase that begins with “wide” and ends in “right” that has to make FSU fans just a little nervous about that.
College football weekend cheat sheet: Week 1
By MATT SEVERANCE
We’re back this year to give you a few nuggets on every Top 25 matchup each weekend (with some programs playing FCS teams this week, not all games involving ranked programs have odds).
Louisiana-Monroe at No. 2 Texas (-41.5, 65)
Louisiana-Monroe beat Alabama a few years ago, but this year’s team is picked to finish just seventh in the Sun Belt, so it’s hard to see the Warhawks keeping it close.
Texas opens against a non-BCS conference team for the 10th year in a row and has won the past nine by an average score of 49.6.
No. 20 Brigham Young at No. 3 Oklahoma (-22, 67.5)
The Cougars return 12 starters, led by QB Max Hall, from last year’s 10-win team. Top RB Harvey Unga should play despite dealing with a hamstring injury.
The Sooners get their first chance at rid the taste of the Florida loss out of their mouths. BYU has lost 12 straight games to ranked non-conference opponents. Sooners star tight end Jermaine Gresham is likely to sit out with a knee injury.
San Jose State at No. 4 USC (-32.5, 48)
The Spartans’ best chance to cover is to try and fluster USC true freshman QB Matt Barkley in his collegiate debut. The Trojans will be without starting center Krisofer O’Dowd and No. 2 WR Ronald Johnson.
The Trojans are is 28-1 all time against WAC opponents and San Jose State has not beaten a ranked opponent since 2000. USC might be looking ahead to Ohio State, however.
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 7 Virginia Tech (+6.5, 38)
The Hokies’ chances of winning this game, and perhaps the ACC, took a blow when Darren Evans was lost for the year. But that defense gets a shot at unproven Tide QB Greg McElroy.
The Tide got good and bad news this week: Starting running back Julio Jones and RB Mark Ingram were cleared to play by the NCAA. But defensive end Brandon Deaderick is not expected to play after being shot during a robbery.
Navy at No. 6 Ohio State (-21.5, 47)
The Midshipmen are always a nightmare matchup on offense (they again led college football in rushing last year) and have 13 starters back overall.
The Buckeyes simply don’t lose home openers, not having done so since 1978. Plus they had all summer to prepare for Navy’s unique option offense.
Akron at No. 9 Penn State (-27, 59)
Akron struggled on defense and PSU averaged 52.8 points per game in its four non-conference tilts last year.
The Nittany Lions welcome back coach Joe Paterno to the sideline (instead of the coaching box, where he was after hip surgery last year) and star LB Sean Lee after he missed all of last year with an injury.
No. 13 Georgia at No. 9 Oklahoma State (-5, 61.5)
The Bulldogs have to break in a new starting QB and featured running back but have a very experienced offensive line that could dominate. Running back Caleb King didn't make the trip to Stillwater because of a hamstring injury.
The Cowboys lost two starters this week in LB Orie Lemon (torn ACL) and TE Jamal Mosley (quit team). QB Zac Robinson, despite a few reports indicating otherwise, will play this week.
No. 11 LSU at Washington (+17.5, 53.5)
The Huskies have lost 14 straight games but have a new identity under coach Steve Sarkisian and get back QB Jake Locker.
LSU running backs Keiland Williams and Charles Scott could have a field day against a Washington defense that allowed 250.6 yards rushing per game last season.
Maryland at No. 12 California (-21, 51)
The Terps were a different club against ranked teams last year, going 4-1 as opposed to 4-4 against unranked team. But they bring back just nine starters and are rebuilding both lines.
The Bears might have the best secondary in the country and probably do have the best running back in Jahvid Best. They will remember last year’s 35-27 loss at Maryland. Now it’s the Terps who have to travel cross country.
Nevada at No. 23 Notre Dame (-14.5, 61)
The Wolf Pack are very dangerous behind dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick, who last year became the fifth player in NCAA history to pass for more than 1,000 yards and run for more than 2,000 yards. They can run on anyone.
Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen should have a field deal against a Nevada pass defense that was the worst in I-A last year. Plus the Wolf Pack are 1-8 against BCS conference teams the past four years.
Florida Atlantic at No. 24 Nebraska (-21.5, 61)
FAU probably has the better QB in Rusty Smith, the Sun Belt’s all-time leading passer. Nebraska QB Zac Lee has attempted two passes.
Nebraska’s running attack, even without the now-departed Quentin Castille (dismissed from team), should roll over an FAU defense that is undersized and with just three starters back.
No. 8 Mississippi at Memphis (+17, 54.5)
Arkelon Hall is back at quarterback for Memphis after throwing for 2,275 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and running back Curtis Steels also returns after rushing for 1,223 yards and seven touchdowns last season. The Tigers will score points.
How will the Rebels handle being the hunted for once? They are ranked in the Top 10 entering the season for the first time since 1970. Ole Miss did beat Memphis by 17 in last year’s opener but has some size problems in the secondary against the big Tiger receivers.
Miami at No. 18 Florida State (-6.5, 47.5)
The Canes won’t have projected starting defensive end Eric Moncour, and the UM D-Line was trashed last season by 310 FSU rushing yards.
FSU is focusing on UM receiver/returner Travis Benjamin, who put up 274 yards of total offense and two touchdowns in last year's game. The Noles are very inexperienced at receiver and that’s the main question mark on offense.
Cram Session: Have you upped your game?
By DAVID PAYNE
Why are you a better handicapper this year compared to last? How have you improved your game?
For most sports bettors, the kick off of college football is like New Year’s. Last year’s wins and losses are in the books. It’s the perfect opportunity to assess your handicapping strengths and weaknesses.
Do you have a tendency to try to play catch-up after a bad day? Are you managing your money poorly with erratic and unnecessary changes to the base unit (amount) of your wagers?
Maybe, like me, you lack discipline and often play too many games.
Well, what are you doing about it?
Betting NCAAF Week 1Must read college content
NCAAF Week 1 has value
The pros of betting the first week of the season.
Patience is a virtue
Should we be cautious with our first-week bets?
Oregon's 2009 schedule
A season forecast for the Ducks' 2009 sched.
Best of the rest
News, notes and trends on the other lined Thursday games.
Week 1 staff picks
We're not experts, but we were brave enough to offer our Week 1 leans.
Week 1 power rankings
The first rankings in the eyes of a sharp.
The main event
What you need to know for the Oregon-Boise State matchup.
Ask the oddsmaker
Michael Perry answers questions on the Week 1's moving lines.
Q&A with Nostradamus12
Q: Nos, why are you a better handicapper this year compared to last? How have you improved your game?
A: I plan on emphasizing this more. If a team has got the better of a matchup on only one side of the ball, I’ll bet the team total instead of the side, assuming the number is fair.
Example: Last year, I made the mistake of taking Miami -17 over Central Florida.
A better play would have been to take UCF under 15 points, because, at the time, UCF’s offense was horrible.
They ended up with 14 points on an interception returned for a touchdown and a kickoff returned for a TD. They had 78 yards of total offense.
Miami’s offense was inconsistent (still is) and therefore the team total was the play.
Later in the year, putting this into practice, I took the Central Michigan team total over 37 against Eastern Michigan. I believed CMU would score, however, I did not trust their shaky defense. CMU lost 56-52, yet was still solid winner on team total.
Q: How long have you been handicapping?
A: Twenty-five years, if you can call the first five handicapping
Q: Three teams to back this year.
A: I don't normally get locked into for or against any teams for that period of time. With that said, possible undervalued teams could include Arkansas, UAB and Arkansas St.
Q: Three to fade.
A: Possible overvalued teams might include Iowa, Utah and Oklahoma St. They're very good, but still overvalued in my opinion.
Q: Credibility check: What kind of car do you drive?
A: 2006 Cadillac DTS, smooth yet with some power, considering the new Camaro sometime next year.
Odds/Ends
Movement: Line movements early in the week indicate sharp action. We’ll track the biggest early line moves each week to see if oddsmakers are adjusting appropriately.
As of noon EST Wednesday, the biggest line moves were:
•Purdue has dropped from a 14-point favorite over Toledo to as low as 10.5 at some books
•LSU has gone from a 14-point favorite at Washington to 17.5-point favorite.
•Boise State opened 6.5-point favorite over Oregon, but dropped all the way to 3.5.
Fact: Last year, Washington, Michigan, Fresno State, Wyoming, Auburn, LSU, Indiana and Western Kentucky each finished at least five games under .500 against the spread.
In the last 10 seasons, only three teams have ever finished at least five games under .500 against the spread in consecutive years. Expect ATS improvement from those eight teams.
Advice from a pro: “If you pre-determine how something is going to play out, you can run into trouble. Everyone looks at the season and tries to isolate teams that they think they could be play-on or play-against teams. That’s part of the process. But be cautious and don’t be too rigid in having made that decision. If you’re too stubborn, it can lead to compounding mistakes.” – Expert Larry Ness.
Question: USC has lost three defensive starters, its second-leading receiver and named a true freshman its starting quarterback in the last week. But books have been hesitant to drop the line on Saturday's opener against San Jose State.
The Trojans opened as a 34.5-point favorite. Some books have dropped it down to 33.5, but it's still hovering around 34 for the most part. What gives? Was this line too low from the beginning?
Quote: "There's a lot of unknown factors. You've got to throw in a new offense and new defense and on top of that you've got to throw in 10-12 freshmen that are going to be playing, and I mean playing. Not just hitting two snaps a game.” – Auburn coach Gene Chizik in the Birmingham News.
Who the hell is David Payne?
I’m a sharp without the discipline, time or money to be a professional.
Does that make me a square?
As a member of the sports media for the last 10 years, I’m sharp in my knowledge of college football.
More than 15 up-and-down years betting sports, including two years on the other side of the table, helped me weasel a job, which I believe has made me a better handicapper.
But I readily admit to being an undisciplined recreational bettor, I will probably bet too many games this year, because, well, it’s more fun. And I’m sure sooner or later I’ll play a game just because it’s on TV, whether I’ve researched it fully or not.
So let’s call me square-ish.
Who the hell are you and what do you want?
My guess is the majority of the Community is in my boat.
All but a select few of you have real jobs, and do not rely on the success of our wagers for income.
But frequenting this site suggests you’re little bit above the average guy, who bets solely off of what Lee Corso says on ESPN. (Corso is recovering from a stroke, so proceed with caution.)
A lot of you are much better handicappers than I. A select few of you make have even reached the vaunted status of tout. If so, thank you for blessing us with your presence.
Some of you might be new to our little hobby and eager to learn.
Regardless of your handicapping stature, I’ll be here to serve you throughout the season. I’m not here to pound you with picks, although I’ll make a few. My goal is to simply provide a reliable handicapping resource and a forum for bettors to share their local knowledge.
PAYNEFUL PICKS from a guy who drives a 2001 Oldsmobile Alero.
Last season: 34-28-1
Nevada at Notre Dame (-14.5, 61)
Loving the Wolf Packs this week. Nevada’s defense led the WAC in sacks last year and its secondary is loaded with seniors. It looks like a good matchup against Notre Dame’s offense.
The last three seasons, the Irish have looked sluggish in their opener (0-3 ATS), including last year’s embarrassing performance against a dreadful San Diego State team. They always play Michigan in Week 2, so they may have a tendency to look ahead.
Game of the day: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
By TED SEVRANSKY - Direct From Vegas: Sports Investing for long term profits
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5, 38.5)
Neutral Site?
An impressive win in the Georgia Dome to begin last season paved the way for Alabama to become one of the biggest surprises college football.
Nick Saban’s squad came out firing on all cylinders to start 2008, with a 34-10 opening-day win in Atlanta against a Clemson squad that was ranked in the preseason Top 10. Expect the Crimson Tide to hold the edge in crowd support in Atlanta Saturday night this time around, despite the neutral site venue.
ACC Mediocrity
The ACC has struggled to step up against the big boys over the last decade. Since the BCS bowl structure was founded a decade ago, ACC teams are just 2-9 SU in BCS Bowls. It’s surely worth noting that Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl last year – the ACC was 1-9 as a conference in BCS Bowl Games prior to that victory.
Factoring pointspreads into the mix, the ACC isn’t getting much respect. This game features the two-time defending ACC champs, returning 15 starters, installed as a near touchdown underdog to an Alabama team that returns only four starters on the offensive side of the football.
Injuries and Suspensions
The NCAA reinstated Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones along with running back Mark Ingram on Wednesday on the condition that they repay the cost of a Gulf Coast fishing trip they took last spring. The ruling was very good news for the Crimson Tide. Jones was an All-SEC receiver as a freshman, while Ingram is set to replace All-SEC tailback Glen Coffee after leading the team with 12 touchdown runs as a freshman.
Alabama senior defensive end Brandon Deaderick isn’t expected to play on Saturday. Deaderick was shot in the arm during a robbery attempt over the weekend and was not released from the hospital until late Tuesday.
Virginia Tech’s star running back Darren Evans tore his ACL in preseason practice and is out for the season. Evans was a beast in the backfield last year, gaining more than 1,200 yards while punching in 11 touchdowns. Redshirt freshman RB Ryan Williams is expected to earn the starting nod for Frank Beamer’s squad.
Quarterbacks
Virginia Tech junior Tyrod Taylor split time with Sean Glennon last year, but the starting gig is all his in 2009. Taylor’s passing stats weren’t all that pretty in 2008. He posted a 57 percent completion rating, made 173 pass attempts that produced only 1036 yards and had a 2-to-7 touchdown to interception ratio. Taylor’s passing numbers should be better this year and the dual threat’s running numbers should exceed last year’s totals of 5.0 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns.
John Parker Wilson graduated in the offseason, leaving the Crimson Tide to search for a new starting quarterback. Junior Greg McElroy won the job in a three-way competition during spring practice, after patiently waiting three full years for his chance.
McElroy knows a thing about patience. In high school he sat behind future Missouri star Chase Daniel until his senior year before leading his team to the state title. McElroy’s college experience is limited to mop-up duty in blowouts, throwing 20 passes in eight previous games.
“He is very smart. Players really like him. He has a lot of positive leadership qualities,” coach Nick Saban told reporters.
Coaches Quotes
Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer isn’t resting his hopes for the season on this one ballgame. Remember, the Hokies lost their opener to East Carolina last year, but still managed to win the ACC title.
“A win over a great program as good as Alabama would definitely be a big thing for Virginia Tech and the ACC,” Beamer told the media. “The other side of it, it doesn’t make your season either way. If you beat Alabama you still have games to play, and if you lose to Alabama you still have games to play.”
Nick Saban still seems upset by Alabama’s failures in the SEC title game against Florida and their Sugar Bowl game against Utah, particularly on the defensive side of the football.
While the buzz around Tuscaloosa is calling this year’s defense one of the best Alabama defenses ever, Saban cut that talk short.
“Where it is now, we gave up 31 points in the last two games we played. Even though we were going against two of the best offenses in the country, we need to do better. There’s a lot of room for improvement,” Saban told the press.
Whether pressing or chasing, gamblers are sure to be tuned in for a trio of televised games under the lights, including a pair of late-night contests on the West coast.
Let’s start with Alabama vs. Va. Tech at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide started the 2008 campaign at the same venue and dominated Clemson by a 34-10 count as a 4 ½-point underdog. This time around, Nick Saban’s team is favored by 6 1/2 at most betting shops.
The total for ‘over/under’ wagers is 37. Bettors can take the Hokies to win outright for a plus-220 return (risk $100 to win $220).
Alabama is going to be all about its dominant defense, a unit that returns nine starters, including a pair of All-Americans in defensive tackle Terrance Cody and linebacker Rolando McClain. The status of starting DE Brandon Deadrick (36 tackles, four sacks in 2008), who was shot in the arm in an attempted robbery earlier this week, was unclear (but promising for Tide fans) as of Friday night. In terms of gunshot wounds, the injury was considered minor and Deadrick actually returned to practice on Thursday and has been cleared to play.
Greg McElroy is the incumbent QB after John Parker Wilson occupied this pressure-cooker position in Tuscaloosa for three years. McElroy completed 8-of-11 passes for 123 yards with one touchdown and one interception in limited playing time last year.
He will have the benefit of one of the nation’s premier wide receivers in Julio Jones, who had a team-high 58 receptions and 924 yards as a true freshman. RB Glen Coffee (1,383 rushing yards and 10 TDs in ‘08) is gone after bolting a year early for the NFL, but it says here that the Tide will be just fine at this position.
As a true freshman, Mark Ingram rushed for 728 yards and a team-high 12 TDs. Terry Grant is also back in the mix after being the odd man out in 2008. Grant has more than 1,000 career yards and a 4.6 yards-per-carry average.
Va. Tech’s situation at RB isn’t quite as promising. The Hokies suffered a monster blow a few weeks ago when sophomore Darren Evans tore his ACL and was lost for the season. Evans rushed for 1,265 yards and 11 TDs last season.
After splitting time with Sean Glennon the last two years, junior QB Tyrod Taylor now has the job all to himself. Taylor is a poor man’s version of Michael Vick in terms of being able to scramble and elude pressure. But his throwing accuracy is a major question mark, as evidenced by his abysmal 2/7 touchdown-interception ratio in ’08.
Since 2000, the Hokies have thrived in underdog situations. They are 10-5 against the spread during that span. As for ‘Bama, it is 8-9 ATS in ‘chalk’ situations on Saban’s watch.
These schools last met at the 1998 Music City Bowl with the Hokies spanking ‘Bama by a 38-7 count. ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
At 10:00 p.m. Eastern in Berkley on ESPN2, California will be out to avenge a 35-27 loss at Maryland as a 14-point road favorite last year. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Bears as 17-point favorites, but this number was quickly adjusted to 21 where it remained as of Friday night.
The total is 51 at most spots. The Las Vegas Hilton has the Terrapins at 10/1 odds to win outright. And before dismissing such a notion, let’s examine recent double-digit underdog spots for Ralph Friedgen’s program.
Maryland is 5-1 ATS in its last six such situations, including four outright wins since 2006. The Terps won as double-digit ‘dogs at Clemson in 2006 and 2008. We mentioned last year’s win over Cal and they also captured a 34-24 win at Rutgers as 18 ½-point puppies in 2007.
When you go on the road for an opener, you feel a lot better about your chances when you have a seasoned QB and a reliable RB. Friedgen has both in Chris Turner (5-1 in six career starts against top-25 foes) and Da’Rel Scott, who rushed for 1,133 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC in ’08.
With that said, we should also note that the Terps return just five starters on offense and four on defense. They finished 8-5 SU and 6-6 ATS last season, beating Nevada 42-35 in the Humanitarian Bowl on the smurf turf in Boise.
California finished 9-4 both SU and ATS in ’08 and it brings back most of its nucleus. Kevin Riley no longer has to compete with Nate Longshore for the starting QB spot. It is Riley’s alone after he posted a 14/6 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore last season.
Jeff Tedford might have the best RB in the country (personally, I’d go with Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers) in Jahvid Best, who ran for 1,580 yards and 15 TDs during a season in which Cal beat Miami 24-17 at the Emerald Bowl. Best of all, Best averaged an incredible 8.1 YPC.
The Bears had to play Maryland in College Park last year at noon Eastern, which is obviously very early in the a.m. back out West. In turn, they were sluggish in the first quarter and trailed by a 21-3 count early in the second stanza. By the time Cal woke up, it didn’t quite have enough to rally for the victory, coming up up one possession short.
We’ll see if revenge is served or if Maryland remains dynamite as a double-digit underdog.
Washington went winless, lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and saw its head coach (Ty Willingham) dismissed in ’08. But that debacle is in the rearview mirror and Steve Sarkisian is the new head coach after serving as USC’s offensive coordinator.
Most notably, Jake Locker is back and his shoulder is healthy. And that’s bad news for the rest of the Pac 10 and could spell trouble for Les Miles and Co. As a redshirt freshman in ’07, Locker threw for 2,062 yards and ran for 986 in Tim-Tebow-like fashion. But a shoulder injury ended his ’08 campaign less than a month into the year.
LSU was a major disappointment in its attempt to defend the national title. The Tigers went 8-5 SU and were an atrocious 3-9 versus the number. They lost by 30 at Florida and took double-digit defeats from Georgia and Ole Miss at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. The most painful loss came against Alabama in overtime when Saban made his return to Death Valley.
LSU completely outplayed the Tide in every facet of that contest, only to lose because Jarrett Lee couldn’t take care of the football. Jordan Jefferson eventually replaced Lee and was instrumental in a comeback win over Troy and a blowout victory over Ga. Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
The Bayou Bengals bring back seven starters on each side of the ball. None of those players are more important than RB Charles Scott, a bruising between-the-tackles runner who found the end zone 18 times on the ground in ’08. Scott averaged 5.4 YPC while sharing the load with Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy, both whom are also back in the mix.
Jefferson will have his favorite target back. That would be Brandon LaFell, who had 63 receptions for 929 yards and eight TDs despite getting shaky QB play all year long. And let’s not forget about Trindon Holliday, one of the nation’s fastest players who will have a major impact on special teams.
In Miles’ first game as head coach at LSU in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Tigers had to go out West (at the last minute) to play Arizona St. in their season opener. They trailed most of the night only to rally for a 35-31 comeback win as one-point road underdogs. As a double-digit road favorite during Miles’ tenure, LSU is 4-2 ATS.
Most books have the Tigers as 18-point favorites with a total of 53.
ESPN will have this telecast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Maryland has won five consecutive season openers, but it is just 6-16 when it plays its lid-lifter on the road.
--According to GameCockCentral.com, South Carolina junior LB Rodney Paulk suffered torn knee ligaments in Thursday’s win at N.C. St. and it is feared that he’s out for the season (pending an MRI back in Columbia).
--Bowling Green’s Freddie Barnes had 15 receptions for 157 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Falcons to a 31-14 win over Troy as seven-point home underdogs. Troy QB Levi Jones threw almost as many interceptions against BG (two) as he threw in all of 2009 (three). The Falcons scored 31 unanswered points after falling behind 14-0 in the successful debut of Dave Clawson, who served as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator in last year’s debacle of a campaign that led to Phillip Fulmer’s ouster.
NcaaF 9/5
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