[G-men]

Dr. Bob

Friday Strong Opinion

TULANE 28 Tulsa (-14) 37

Tulsa's offense has led the NCAA rankings in each of the last two seasons, although I ranked them 9th both seasons after compensating for strength of opposing defenses. That ranking is likely to go down this season, but not because quarterback David Johnson has moved on. After all, Johnson was a new starting quarterback last season and the 3 quarterbacks battling for the starting job this season are all at least as talented as Johnson was. The reason for the slip in the offensive numbers is the departure of big play receiver Brennan Marion, who caught 82 passes the last two seasons for an amazing 28.7 yards per catch. It's impossible to replace numbers like that and the new quarterback isn't likely to be as well protected as Johnson was last season behind an experienced line. This years line has just 2 returning starters and the 3 that graduated were all multiple year starters, so the sack percentage should go up a bit while the yards per catch numbers go down. Tulsa will still have a very good pass attack, but averaging 9.2 yards per pass play like last season is not going to happen. The rushing attack should be nearly as good even without leading rusher Tarrion Adams, who ran for 1523 yards at 6.2 ypr in 2008. The 3 backups last season ran for a combined 1224 yards at 6.7 ypr so the only drop-off in run production will come from the less experienced offensive line. Tulsa will still be very good offensively (about 20th best in the nation), so expect them to score plenty of points against the weak CUSA defenses that they'll face.

The Golden Hurricane defense has been bad in both of Todd Graham's seasons as head coach and that unit allowed 5.8 yppl last season to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. The defense should be better this season with 8 returning starters but they'll probably still be below average (although average by CUSA standards).

The Green Wave started last season with an impressive showing against Alabama, out-gaining the Tide 3.9 yards per play to 3.6 yppl but losing 6-20 because of two special teams touchdowns allowed. Tulane's offense had a tough time in that game against a stout Bama defense, but the Green Wave started to blossom offensively in the weeks that followed and were a better than average offensive team prior to losing star WR Jeremy Williams in their 5th game and then losing star RB Andre' Anderson early in game 7. The Tulane quarterbacks averaged 6.8 yards per pass play before the injury to Williams, who racked up 437 receiving yards on 42 passes intended for him (he caught 27), but the Green Wave managed just 5.3 yppp in the 7 1/2 games without Williams. Freshman Joe Kemp did a better job throwing the ball than starter Kevin Moore and Kemp is the starter heading into this season. Williams is back from his broken hand and ready to be an All-CUSA receiver. The rushing attack also was night and day different without Anderson, who ran for 864 yards at 5.0 ypr while the other backs combined for 3.6 ypr. Tulane was just 0.1 yards per rushing play worse than an average team with Anderson and they were a horrific 2.0 yprp worse than average without him last season. Overall, the Green Wave offense finished the 2008 season with an average of just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but they were better than average with Anderson and Williams in the lineup and they are both back this season. I expect Tulane to be a good offensive team this season as long as Anderson and Williams are healthy.

Tulane's defense started last season well, allowing just 4.8 yppl in their first 4 games (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), but the Wave fell apart defensively after that and ended the season with a 6.4 yppl average and a rating of 0.9 yppl worse than average. There will be improvement from the defense this season but it may not come until after star DT Reggie Scott and S Corey Sonnier (last year's leading tackler) return from 2 games suspensions.

Tulsa beat Tulane 56-7 late last season when the Green Wave offense was rudderless without Williams and Anderson and when the defense was worn down. The Golden Hurricane will certainly be able to move the ball on Tulane, but the Green Wave should score around 30 points themselves against a sub-par Tulsa defense. My ratings favor Tulsa by only 9 1/2 points in this game and it is clear that Tulane's offensive collapse without their two stars has skewed the perception of just how good Tulane's offense can be. I'd consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at +14 or more.