Game of the day: Tulsa at Tulane
By LEE KOSTROSKI - My handicapping is extensive, exhaustive and highly productive
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave (+13.5, 64)
Setting the Scene
Tulsa comes into this Week 1 Conference USA game as a heavy favorite against the Green Wave of Tulane. Tulsa defeated Tulane 56-7 last season thanks in large part to 489 yards rushing on 8.3 yards per carry.
This time around, the Golden Hurricane have more question marks on offense and could be vulnerable in this road game at the Superdome.
Tulsa has to replace its top passer, rusher and receiver from a year ago. That group includes RB Tarrion Adams, who is the school’s career rushing leader at 3,651 yards.
While Tulsa is struggling to replace a bevy of starters, Tulane has experience returning at every skill position.
The Green Wave bring back their quarterback Joe Kemp, who won the starting job last year before suffering season ending injury on a late hit vs. Houston. The Wave also return their top three running backs and three of their four top receivers.
Questions at Quarterback
Tulane enters this game in a drastically different situation than last year’s 56-7 blowout loss. While teams are allowed to travel with 70 players, Tulane was down to 53 players in that loss due to an array of injuries. One of the players out in that game was Kemp. He has again been named the starting QB for 2009 after beating out Kevin Moore and redshirt freshmen Ryan Griffin.
Kemp appeared in five games last season and completed 26-of-46 passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns before suffering a broken collarbone.
While Tulane is set at the quarterback position, Tulsa has to replace one of the most productive passers in school history. David Johnson graduated after passing for over 4,000 yards and 46 touchdowns last season.
Tulsa hasn’t announced a starting quarterback for this contest and is likely to use a three-headed monster at the position. Sophomore and former Texas transfer G.J. Kinne is expected to take the majority of the snaps while Junior Jacob Bower and Freshmen Shavodrick Beaver will also get some time.
Bower threw 15 passes last year so he has some experience. Kinne hasn’t taken a snap in 33 months dating back to his high school days. He committed to the Longhorns as one of the most decorated quarterbacks in Texas high school history before making the transfer to Tulsa.
Health Issues
Tulane suffered a “wave” of players feeling flu-like symptoms in recent weeks. After nearly 10 days of various players feeling ill and missing practices, Tulane finally got back to full strength Monday.
One concern for the Tulane staff is will that rash of sickness result in lack of preparation for Friday nights game?
“We weren't very physical with our scrimmage this past Saturday,” Tulane head coach Bob Toledo told reporters. “There was a lack of concentration and focus today and the tempo was up and down. I was disappointed and I told them we were sloppy today.”
Trends
Tulsa is 4-0 both straight up and ATS vs. Tulsa, winning by an average of 33 PPG and covering by an average of 16 PPG.
Tulsa has been a road favorite of -14 or more just nine times since 1980. It is 9-0 SU in those games but just 4-5 ATS. However, it has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been favored by two or more touchdowns away from home. It was just 2-6 ATS last year when favored on the road.
Tulane has been a poor home dog, going 4-9-1 ATS dating back to 2004. Going all the way back to 1980, the Green Wave are just 31-45-2 vs. the number when getting points at home.
Line Movements
This line opened with the Golden Hurricane favored by 14 points and has hovered around that number ever since. As of this writing, the number is mixed at Tulsa -14 and -13.5. The total opened at 63.5 and moved up to 64.5. Now it sits at 64.5 with a few 64’s mixed in.
Our first edition of “Friday Night Lights” for the 2009 college football season takes us to one of the finest cities in the country – The Big Easy. That’s where Tulane will play host to Tulsa in a C-USA West showdown at the Superdome.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tulsa as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 65. As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Golden Hurricane at either 13 ½ or 14 with the total at 64 ½. The Green Wave are plus-400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).
Tulsa won its first eight games in 2008 and appeared to be a potential BCS Buster in the mold of Boise St., Utah and Hawaii in recent years. However, the Golden Hurricane lost back-to-back road games to both Arkansas and Houston, and then dropped a 27-24 decision to East Carolina in the C-USA championship game.
Nevertheless, Todd Graham’s squad finished the season with an 11-3 straight-up record and an 8-6 against-the-spread mark. Best of all, Tulsa capped the year with a 45-13 clubbing of Ball St. as a two-point favorite at the GMAC Bowl. Remember, the Cardinals went into that game with a 12-1 record.
The Golden Hurricane returns eight starters on defense and five on offense. The big loss is quarterback David Johnson, who threw for 4,059 yards and 46 touchdowns in 2008. His replacement remains a mystery, as Graham has yet to name a starter.
The candidates are junior Jacob Bower, who connected on 11-of-15 passes for 138 yards with one touchdown and one interception in limited playing time last year, and Texas transfer G.J. Kinne. Most reports are indicating that Kinne will get the starting nod and take his first collegiate snaps. He was redshirted at Texas in 2007 and sat out last year after transferring from Austin.
The Tulsa offense lost Johnson along with workhorse RB Tarrion Adams, who ran for more than 1,500 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Also, WR Brennan Marion is gone after tallying 1,112 receving yards and eight TD catches.
But a stable of backs appear poised to adequately replace Adams and let’s not forget about dynamic playmaker Damaris Johnson, who led C-USA in all-purpose yardage as a true freshman. Johnson, who had a team-high 53 receptions and 10 TD grabs in 2008, will add punt-return duties to his resume this year.
Tulane finished 2008 with a 2-10 SU record and a 5-7 ATS ledger. However, it says here that the eight-game losing streak to conclude the season was a bit misleading, at least in terms of the way we look at this year’s squad.
Keep in mind that since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Tulane’s athletics budget has been decimated. With that in mind, there’s no team in America that needs to stay healthy more than the Wave, yet they had the nation’s worst rash of injuries in ’08.
This fact wasn’t lost on Graham when he faced the media earlier this week. Graham said, “I've never seen anything quite like the injuries they faced last year. When I looked at the injury report last year, I was astounded. They lost almost 20 starters. It was unbelievable.”
Graham is referencing the next-to-last week of the regular season when Tulane came to Tulsa and took woodshed treatment. The Wave brought only 53 players on the trip and the Golden Hurricane took full advantage, cruising to a 56-7 victory as a 28 ½-point home favorite.
Look at how Bob Toledo’s team performed early in the season before injuries destroyed any hope of being competitive. When Tulane went to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 1 to face Alabama, all it did was out-yard the Crimson Tide 318-172.
’Bama had to get touchdowns on a punt return and a blocked punt to get the victory, but Toledo’s troops hooked up their backers easily as 29 ½-point road underdogs. Lest we forget, that same Alabama squad was 12-0 and No. 1 in the nation before losing to Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
In Week 3 after East Carolina had already pulled upsets against Va. Tech and West Va., the Pirates had to rally late in the fourth quarter to capture a 28-24 win at Tulane as 12 ½-point road favorites.
The Wave responded to the ECU loss by winning back-to-back games, but then the injury bug hit. One week after rushing for 255 yards in a 24-21 loss at UTEP, RB Andre Anderson was lost for the season. He had eclipsed the 100-yard mark in three straight games before going down. Also, leading WR Jeremy Williams went down a week prior to Anderson’s injury.
The Wave returns seven starters on offense and six on defense, but they will be without a pair of starters along the defensive line Friday night. (So basically, they have just four returning starters this week.) Senior DT Reggie Scott, an honorable mention C-USA selection the last two seasons, is suspended and junior DT Oscar Ponce de Leon is out with an injury.
Tulane sophomore QB Joe Kemp is poised to make his first career start after a broken collarbone limited his playing time in 2008. As a freshman, Kemp completed 26-of-46 (57%) passes for 344 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Tulane is 4-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog in Toledo’s first two seasons. The Wave is 3-3 ATS as a home ‘dog on Toledo’s watch. Meanwhile, Tulsa is a mediocre 4-7 ATS as a road favorite during Graham’s tenure. The Golden Hurricane is 2-4 ATS as a double-digit road ‘chalk’ under Graham.
ESPN will have the telecast Friday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--After Tuesday’s practice, Toledo told TheWaveReport, “It was really good. I was pleased. I wasn't very happy with yesterday and I met with the team leadership and they just talked to the guys and told me it was going to be better today, and it was. It was more focused, more attention to detail."
--Two weeks ago, more than two dozen Tulane players missed multiple practices with flu-like symptoms. However, all of the players were cleared at back at practice by the beginning of this week.
--Iowa RB Jewel Hampton is out for the year with a torn ACL. This is a huge blow to the Hawkeyes, who lost Shonn Greene a year early to the pros following his 20-TD campaign of ‘08. Hampton, who rushed for 463 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC last year, was poised to take over the bulk of the rushing load from Greene.
--Florida LB Dustin Doe is suspended for the Charleston Southern game this Saturday.
--Alabama WR Julio Jones and RB Mark Ingram have been cleared to play Saturday vs. Va. Tech. The status of both players had been unclear due to a fishing trip they took earlier this year in Orange Beach.
College football weekend cheat sheet: Week 1
By MATT SEVERANCE
We’re back this year to give you a few nuggets on every Top 25 matchup each weekend (with some programs playing FCS teams this week, not all games involving ranked programs have odds).
Louisiana-Monroe at No. 2 Texas (-41.5, 65)
Louisiana-Monroe beat Alabama a few years ago, but this year’s team is picked to finish just seventh in the Sun Belt, so it’s hard to see the Warhawks keeping it close.
Texas opens against a non-BCS conference team for the 10th year in a row and has won the past nine by an average score of 49.6.
No. 20 Brigham Young at No. 3 Oklahoma (-22, 67.5)
The Cougars return 12 starters, led by QB Max Hall, from last year’s 10-win team. Top RB Harvey Unga should play despite dealing with a hamstring injury.
The Sooners get their first chance at rid the taste of the Florida loss out of their mouths. BYU has lost 12 straight games to ranked non-conference opponents. Sooners star tight end Jermaine Gresham is likely to sit out with a knee injury.
San Jose State at No. 4 USC (-32.5, 48)
The Spartans’ best chance to cover is to try and fluster USC true freshman QB Matt Barkley in his collegiate debut. The Trojans will be without starting center Krisofer O’Dowd and No. 2 WR Ronald Johnson.
The Trojans are is 28-1 all time against WAC opponents and San Jose State has not beaten a ranked opponent since 2000. USC might be looking ahead to Ohio State, however.
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 7 Virginia Tech (+6.5, 38)
The Hokies’ chances of winning this game, and perhaps the ACC, took a blow when Darren Evans was lost for the year. But that defense gets a shot at unproven Tide QB Greg McElroy.
The Tide got good and bad news this week: Starting running back Julio Jones and RB Mark Ingram were cleared to play by the NCAA. But defensive end Brandon Deaderick is not expected to play after being shot during a robbery.
Navy at No. 6 Ohio State (-21.5, 47)
The Midshipmen are always a nightmare matchup on offense (they again led college football in rushing last year) and have 13 starters back overall.
The Buckeyes simply don’t lose home openers, not having done so since 1978. Plus they had all summer to prepare for Navy’s unique option offense.
Akron at No. 9 Penn State (-27, 59)
Akron struggled on defense and PSU averaged 52.8 points per game in its four non-conference tilts last year.
The Nittany Lions welcome back coach Joe Paterno to the sideline (instead of the coaching box, where he was after hip surgery last year) and star LB Sean Lee after he missed all of last year with an injury.
No. 13 Georgia at No. 9 Oklahoma State (-5, 61.5)
The Bulldogs have to break in a new starting QB and featured running back but have a very experienced offensive line that could dominate. Running back Caleb King didn't make the trip to Stillwater because of a hamstring injury.
The Cowboys lost two starters this week in LB Orie Lemon (torn ACL) and TE Jamal Mosley (quit team). QB Zac Robinson, despite a few reports indicating otherwise, will play this week.
No. 11 LSU at Washington (+17.5, 53.5)
The Huskies have lost 14 straight games but have a new identity under coach Steve Sarkisian and get back QB Jake Locker.
LSU running backs Keiland Williams and Charles Scott could have a field day against a Washington defense that allowed 250.6 yards rushing per game last season.
Maryland at No. 12 California (-21, 51)
The Terps were a different club against ranked teams last year, going 4-1 as opposed to 4-4 against unranked team. But they bring back just nine starters and are rebuilding both lines.
The Bears might have the best secondary in the country and probably do have the best running back in Jahvid Best. They will remember last year’s 35-27 loss at Maryland. Now it’s the Terps who have to travel cross country.
Nevada at No. 23 Notre Dame (-14.5, 61)
The Wolf Pack are very dangerous behind dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick, who last year became the fifth player in NCAA history to pass for more than 1,000 yards and run for more than 2,000 yards. They can run on anyone.
Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen should have a field deal against a Nevada pass defense that was the worst in I-A last year. Plus the Wolf Pack are 1-8 against BCS conference teams the past four years.
Florida Atlantic at No. 24 Nebraska (-21.5, 61)
FAU probably has the better QB in Rusty Smith, the Sun Belt’s all-time leading passer. Nebraska QB Zac Lee has attempted two passes.
Nebraska’s running attack, even without the now-departed Quentin Castille (dismissed from team), should roll over an FAU defense that is undersized and with just three starters back.
No. 8 Mississippi at Memphis (+17, 54.5)
Arkelon Hall is back at quarterback for Memphis after throwing for 2,275 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and running back Curtis Steels also returns after rushing for 1,223 yards and seven touchdowns last season. The Tigers will score points.
How will the Rebels handle being the hunted for once? They are ranked in the Top 10 entering the season for the first time since 1970. Ole Miss did beat Memphis by 17 in last year’s opener but has some size problems in the secondary against the big Tiger receivers.
Miami at No. 18 Florida State (-6.5, 47.5)
The Canes won’t have projected starting defensive end Eric Moncour, and the UM D-Line was trashed last season by 310 FSU rushing yards.
FSU is focusing on UM receiver/returner Travis Benjamin, who put up 274 yards of total offense and two touchdowns in last year's game. The Noles are very inexperienced at receiver and that’s the main question mark on offense.
Cram Session: Have you upped your game?
By DAVID PAYNE
Why are you a better handicapper this year compared to last? How have you improved your game?
For most sports bettors, the kick off of college football is like New Year’s. Last year’s wins and losses are in the books. It’s the perfect opportunity to assess your handicapping strengths and weaknesses.
Do you have a tendency to try to play catch-up after a bad day? Are you managing your money poorly with erratic and unnecessary changes to the base unit (amount) of your wagers?
Maybe, like me, you lack discipline and often play too many games.
Well, what are you doing about it?
Betting NCAAF Week 1Must read college content
NCAAF Week 1 has value
The pros of betting the first week of the season.
Patience is a virtue
Should we be cautious with our first-week bets?
Oregon's 2009 schedule
A season forecast for the Ducks' 2009 sched.
Best of the rest
News, notes and trends on the other lined Thursday games.
Week 1 staff picks
We're not experts, but we were brave enough to offer our Week 1 leans.
Week 1 power rankings
The first rankings in the eyes of a sharp.
The main event
What you need to know for the Oregon-Boise State matchup.
Ask the oddsmaker
Michael Perry answers questions on the Week 1's moving lines.
Q&A with Nostradamus12
Q: Nos, why are you a better handicapper this year compared to last? How have you improved your game?
A: I plan on emphasizing this more. If a team has got the better of a matchup on only one side of the ball, I’ll bet the team total instead of the side, assuming the number is fair.
Example: Last year, I made the mistake of taking Miami -17 over Central Florida.
A better play would have been to take UCF under 15 points, because, at the time, UCF’s offense was horrible.
They ended up with 14 points on an interception returned for a touchdown and a kickoff returned for a TD. They had 78 yards of total offense.
Miami’s offense was inconsistent (still is) and therefore the team total was the play.
Later in the year, putting this into practice, I took the Central Michigan team total over 37 against Eastern Michigan. I believed CMU would score, however, I did not trust their shaky defense. CMU lost 56-52, yet was still solid winner on team total.
Q: How long have you been handicapping?
A: Twenty-five years, if you can call the first five handicapping
Q: Three teams to back this year.
A: I don't normally get locked into for or against any teams for that period of time. With that said, possible undervalued teams could include Arkansas, UAB and Arkansas St.
Q: Three to fade.
A: Possible overvalued teams might include Iowa, Utah and Oklahoma St. They're very good, but still overvalued in my opinion.
Q: Credibility check: What kind of car do you drive?
A: 2006 Cadillac DTS, smooth yet with some power, considering the new Camaro sometime next year.
Odds/Ends
Movement: Line movements early in the week indicate sharp action. We’ll track the biggest early line moves each week to see if oddsmakers are adjusting appropriately.
As of noon EST Wednesday, the biggest line moves were:
•Purdue has dropped from a 14-point favorite over Toledo to as low as 10.5 at some books
•LSU has gone from a 14-point favorite at Washington to 17.5-point favorite.
•Boise State opened 6.5-point favorite over Oregon, but dropped all the way to 3.5.
Fact: Last year, Washington, Michigan, Fresno State, Wyoming, Auburn, LSU, Indiana and Western Kentucky each finished at least five games under .500 against the spread.
In the last 10 seasons, only three teams have ever finished at least five games under .500 against the spread in consecutive years. Expect ATS improvement from those eight teams.
Advice from a pro: “If you pre-determine how something is going to play out, you can run into trouble. Everyone looks at the season and tries to isolate teams that they think they could be play-on or play-against teams. That’s part of the process. But be cautious and don’t be too rigid in having made that decision. If you’re too stubborn, it can lead to compounding mistakes.” – Expert Larry Ness.
Question: USC has lost three defensive starters, its second-leading receiver and named a true freshman its starting quarterback in the last week. But books have been hesitant to drop the line on Saturday's opener against San Jose State.
The Trojans opened as a 34.5-point favorite. Some books have dropped it down to 33.5, but it's still hovering around 34 for the most part. What gives? Was this line too low from the beginning?
Quote: "There's a lot of unknown factors. You've got to throw in a new offense and new defense and on top of that you've got to throw in 10-12 freshmen that are going to be playing, and I mean playing. Not just hitting two snaps a game.” – Auburn coach Gene Chizik in the Birmingham News.
Who the hell is David Payne?
I’m a sharp without the discipline, time or money to be a professional.
Does that make me a square?
As a member of the sports media for the last 10 years, I’m sharp in my knowledge of college football.
More than 15 up-and-down years betting sports, including two years on the other side of the table, helped me weasel a job, which I believe has made me a better handicapper.
But I readily admit to being an undisciplined recreational bettor, I will probably bet too many games this year, because, well, it’s more fun. And I’m sure sooner or later I’ll play a game just because it’s on TV, whether I’ve researched it fully or not.
So let’s call me square-ish.
Who the hell are you and what do you want?
My guess is the majority of the Community is in my boat.
All but a select few of you have real jobs, and do not rely on the success of our wagers for income.
But frequenting this site suggests you’re little bit above the average guy, who bets solely off of what Lee Corso says on ESPN. (Corso is recovering from a stroke, so proceed with caution.)
A lot of you are much better handicappers than I. A select few of you make have even reached the vaunted status of tout. If so, thank you for blessing us with your presence.
Some of you might be new to our little hobby and eager to learn.
Regardless of your handicapping stature, I’ll be here to serve you throughout the season. I’m not here to pound you with picks, although I’ll make a few. My goal is to simply provide a reliable handicapping resource and a forum for bettors to share their local knowledge.
PAYNEFUL PICKS from a guy who drives a 2001 Oldsmobile Alero.
Last season: 34-28-1
Nevada at Notre Dame (-14.5, 61)
Loving the Wolf Packs this week. Nevada’s defense led the WAC in sacks last year and its secondary is loaded with seniors. It looks like a good matchup against Notre Dame’s offense.
The last three seasons, the Irish have looked sluggish in their opener (0-3 ATS), including last year’s embarrassing performance against a dreadful San Diego State team. They always play Michigan in Week 2, so they may have a tendency to look ahead.
TULSA (11 - 3) at TULANE (2 - 10) - 9/4/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
8:00 PM
TULSA vs. TULANE
Tulsa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tulsa is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
Tulane is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tulane is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
NcaaF 9/4
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