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  1. #1

    Default Hot lines: MLB 9/3

    Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets


    Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-170)

    Who can dare resist a little taste of interleague in September?

    It’s like having BBQ in the dead of winter.

    The Cubs and ChiSox finish out their 2009 rivalry with this makeup game for a postponement back in June. The teams split that series while the White Sox have a 3-2 advantage in the season series.

    A lot has happened since the last time these cross-town rivals met. The Cubs fallen far behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, going 23-21 since the break heading into Wednesday. The White Sox have also struggled. They’ve dropped out of contention in the AL Central with a 19-23 mark since the Mid-Summer Classic.

    But while there is no joy in the Windy City, it’s tough to play as bad as the ChiSox. Heading into Wednesday, they’ve won just once in the past 10 games and have managed to score only 3.5 runs per game during this slump.

    Manager Ozzie Guillen, who should be fired following this season, has insisted his team has not packed it in after falling seven games behind Detroit in the standings and 13.5 games out of the AL Wild Card hunt. Despite Guillen’s persistence, the franchise has all the signs of a tanker – waiving talents, making call-ups and shutting down injured players.

    The Cubs seem like the perfect foe to make Guillen realize that.

    Pick: Chicago Cubs

    San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (+128, 8)

    Thursday’s game will feature two former Cy Young winners on the bump. But that’s not why this contest between the Giants and Phillies will play under the 8-run total.

    Sure, Tim Lincecum and Pedro Martinez are impressive names.

    Lincecum is coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Rockies Friday, which is the same type of effort he put up against Philadelphia when the teams met on August 1. And Martinez has proven he still has something left in the tank and has had plenty of time to rest with a rain delay shortening his most recent outing.

    But that’s not why bettors should look to the under Thursday.

    Both teams couldn’t hit the broadside of Barry Bond’s forehead. San Francisco is hitting .215 this past week and has totaled a major-league low 39 hits in that span. The Phillies are also whiffing at the plate, posting a .251 average in the past seven days. Philadelphia has mustered a MLB-worst 15 runs during this stretch.

    Tuesday’s Game 1 of this series finished with a 1-0 win for the Phillies.

    Pick: Under

  2. #2

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    Thursday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

    Streaking

    Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA), San Francisco Giants

    It’s kind of hard to believe this kid was almost traded for Alex Rios. Two years ago, the Giants were looking for a good young bat and Rios, then with the Blue Jays, was coming off an All-Star season.

    San Francisco fans should let out a huge sigh of relief that the trade never materialized.

    Lincecum’s stuff is – to borrow a line from Chicago Bulls radio man Chuck Swirsky – sick, wicked and nasty.

    He pitched eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 win over the Rockies his last time to the bump. The Giants have won just once over his last four road starts, but the price is always cheaper than backing him at home.

    If you don’t want to back the away team, think about the under. The under is 7-2 the last nine times Lincecum was on the mound.

    John Smoltz (3-5, 6.71 AL & NL combined), St. Louis Cardinals

    Some things go so well together they should never be separated, like peanut butter and jam or a smoke and a beer. You can now throw John Smoltz and the National League in the same category.

    The former Brave looked like he didn’t belong in the majors during his short stint with the Red Sox. He was getting hit hard often and lefties were clobbering his not fast enough fastball.

    But a return to the senior circuit has turned him back into a reliable and strikeout-tallying pitcher. He’s gathered 15 K’s in just 11 innings of work with the Cards.

    “He knew he could still pitch when he got released by Boston,” teammate Albert Pujols said of the veteran hurler. “Obviously, he’s just been unbelievable.”

    Before bettors get too excited about Smoltz’s 0.82 ERA in the NL this year, let’s not forget that his success has come against the Padres and Nationals – not exactly stiff competition.

    Slumping

    Manny Parra (9-10, 6.66), Milwaukee Brewers

    This lefty pitcher is a frequent visitor to the slumping section. Milwaukee, oddly enough, is winning (5-2 in his last seven appearances) with Parra out there despite his devilishly-high ERA.

    “For my own personal satisfaction, I’d like to pitch better,” Parra, who has an 8.25 ERA in his last seven starts, told reporters after his last outing. “But at the end of the day everyone in this clubhouse is happy when we win so that’s all that matters.”

    Parra has good stuff, but he routinely gets into trouble because of walks. His lack of control leads to big innings and early exits. It doesn’t bode well either that it was the light-hitting Nats and Pirates who were roughing Parra up in his last three starts.

    The best play with Parra on the bump might be the over. His starts have finished above the total in seven of his last eight games.

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