Dr Bob Free Analysis - not a prediction but a good write up
South Carolina at No Carolina St.
Thursday, Sep-03 04:00 PM
Favorite: No Carolina St. -5.0
Total: 47.0
South Carolina has been nothing special in 4 seasons under legendary coach Steve Spurrier, losing either 5 or 6 games each season while rating between 2 to 10 points better than an average team. This year's team falls into that range as well. The offense was horrible last season, averaging just 4.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while the quarterbacks combined for 27 interceptions, but that unit should be about average this season with sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia having more experience and with high regarded freshman back Jarvis Giles ready to uplift the ground assault. Garcia completed only 53% of his passes last season and averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but Garcia is likely to be more accurate while throwing fewer interceptions this year. The receiving corps is still a question mark, but I'll call for average passing results for the Gamecocks this season while the rushing attack continues to be sub-par even with Giles. South Carolina was 0.7 yards per rushing play worse than average last season and I'll call for a -0.4 yprp rating until I see what Giles can do). It's certainly possible that Garcia can be a better than average quarterback (last year was the first year under Spurrier that the pass attack was worse than 0.3 yppp better than average, but I'll take a wait and see approach.
The Gamecocks' defense carried the team last season with a dominating performance, allowing just 4.8 yppl against a schedule that would have averaged 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. There are only 6 returning starters on the defense this year (5 with DT Ajiboye suspended for a couple of games), compared to 9 last season, but LB Eric Norwood is an All-American candidate (1st team SEC the last 2 years) and the safeties are good enough to make up for the young pair of cornerbacks. South Carolina didn't really lose any impact players from last year's defense and I think they'll be close to as good this season (especially later in the season).
NC State was a pretty good team last season when DT Alan-Michael Cash and LB Nate Irving were both in the lineup on defense and when freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was behind center and they should be solid this year even without Irving, who is out for the season after a car accident left him with a broken leg. The defense was good with Irving, but will probably be mediocre at best without him (even with Cash back) now that projected starters CB Ellis and FS Simmons have left team. NC State actually was 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season in 2008, so even a mediocre performance will be an upgrade.
The Wolfpack will be a better than average team because of quarterback Wilson, who enters this season with a streak of 249 passes without an interception. Wilson is likely to throw more than the 1 pick he threw all of last season, but he's also likely to improve upon his solid yards per pass play numbers (6.0 yppp last year against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB). Wilson is also an adept runner who logged 548 yards at 91 rushing plays last season (6.0 yprp) and he'll help out a mediocre stable of running backs (4.4 ypr last year) to produce a better than average ground attack.
This game pits NC State's better than average offense against the Gamecocks' stingy defense while mediocrity meets mediocrity when South Carolina has the ball. My ratings favor NC State by 3 1/2 points with a total of 47 1/2 points and I can see this game going either way.
Dr. Bob 9/3
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