Bryan Leonard's NCAA Opening Night Gridiron Gold135/136 North Texas at Ball State

A popular theory in handicapping the first week of the college football season is to back teams with a significant edge in returning starters. Our old friend Mike Lee who has since passed was the originator of this theory. Despite it's common thought process in these days the theory continues to make sense and money, especially if you jump on it early. While this game opened higher it's still a value at plus 17 or more as we expect this line to close in the 15 range.

North Texas returns 16 starters from a football team that won just once a season ago. But now coach Todd Dodge is in his key third year in the program and his son who also happens to be the signal caller has a firm grasp on it's intricacies. Riley Dodge grew up under his dad's tutelage as his father was a coaching legend in the high school ranks. Leading rusher Cam Montgomery from a season ago really came on at the end of the year to give this team a terrific run/pass combination.

Ball State had a breakout season a year ago under coach Brady Hoke but the losses are huge. Three year starting quarterback Nate Davis was drafted, four starting offensive linemen have departed as well as the top four receivers including Darius Hill who was outstanding. This team brings back just 11 starters and a completely new coaching staff as Hoke took advantage of the career year to go to San Diego State. His parallel move tells us all we need to know about this Cardinal program. Hoke knew the writing was on the wall as this Ball State team is in for a terrible fall this season. This now becomes a young team without any proven leaders. Not only must they win this game but they must do so by close to a three touchdown margin. The differences from the MAC and the Sun Belt are not nearly that large as we take advantage of new coach Stan Parrish and his young overrated squad in the season opener.

PLAY NORTH TEXAS