Brad Penny (7-8, 5.61 ERA with Boston) is slated to make his Giants debut at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies, who counter with lefty J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63) in the middle contest of a three-game series between playoff contenders.
Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels held the Giants to a season-low two hits in a complete-game 1-0 victory on Tuesday. The Phillies are on hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 22-8 at home, 6-0 against the N.L. West, 5-0 on Wednesday and 8-2 versus teams with a winning record.
San Francisco arrived in Philly on a 5-1 run, but it has now dropped four in a row and five of its last six on the highway, and the Giants are now 11 games under .500 as a visitor this season (28-39). Bruce Bochy’s bunch has also lost 18 of its last 26 on the road to lefty starters, but it has won five straight on Wednesday.
The Giants are still on a 5-2 roll against Philadelphia, but six of those seven games were in San Francisco. The Giants are now just 3-11 in their last 14 visits to Citizens Bank Park.
Penny was released from the Red Sox a week ago, not long after allowing eight runs on 10 hits in four inning of a 20-11 loss to the Yankees at Fenway Park on Aug. 21. The veteran right-hander had just one win since mid-June, and he’s 1-5 with a 7.82 ERA since the All-Star break after going 6-3 with a 4.71 ERA in 17 starters before the break.
Penny, who began his career pitching in the N.L. East for the Marlins before spending four years with the Dodgers, is 8-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two games at Citizens Bank.
Happ delivered his sixth consecutive quality start at Pittsburgh on Thursday, allowing three runs in eight innings, but he got little offensive support and took the 3-2 loss, ending the Phillies’ string of four straight victories behind the young southpaw . Happ is 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA in 16 starts since the beginning of June; he’s 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 appearances (seven starts) at home; and he’s yet to face the Giants in his brief career.
The under is 18-3-1 in Happ’s last 22 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four at home and 5-0 in his last five on Wednesday. Conversely, four of Penny’s last five starts with the Red Sox hurdled the total.
As a team, Philadelphia is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams, 37-17-2 after a victory and 15-7 on Wednesday. Similarly, the Giants carry “under” trends of 19-8 on the road against southpaw starters and 7-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (77-54) at Tampa Bay (71-60)
Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.80 ERA) looks to put a horrific month of August behind him when he leads the Red Sox against Matt Garza (7-9, 3.95) and the Rays at Tropicana Field.
Boston cruised to an 8-4 victory on Tuesday and has now won four in a row, seven of its last eight and 11 of their last 14 to open up a three-game lead over Texas in the wild-card race. Terry Francona’s squad is on additional positive runs of 8-0 against right-handed starter, 5-1 versus the A.L. East and 9-3 on Wednesday. However, the Red Sox have still lost 17 of their last 26 to teams with a winning record, going 2-12 in the last 14 on the road versus winning clubs.
The Rays, who now trail Boston by six games, are 10-6 in their last 16 games overall and they’ve won 11 of last 16 at home. Going back further, Tampa is on a 37-15 roll at Tropicana Field, and is on additional streaks of 6-3 in A.L. East action, 48-16 in the second game of a series and 69-29 when hosting opponents with a losing road mark.
The Rays are still 8-5 in the 13 clashes with Boston this season and they’ve taken 16 of the last 22 meetings at Tropicana Field, including last year’s American League Championship Series, which Tampa Bay won in seven games.
Over his last three starts, Beckett has surrendered 20 runs on 23 hits – including 10 home runs – over 18 1/3 innings, good for a 9.82 ERA, yet the Red Sox still managed to win two of those contests, including a 6-5, rain-delayed victory over Toronto at home on Friday. With Beckett pitching, the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 20-7 overall, 11-3 in divisional play, 8-3 on the road and 7-2 on Wednesday. He’s 6-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road starts in 2009.
On the other hand, the Sox have lost eight of Beckett’s last 11 outings on field turf, four of his last five versus winning teams and four of his last five at Tropicana Field. Including two playoff starts last October, Beckett is 7-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 15 games against the Rays (1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in three starts this year).
Garza got rocked for six runs in five innings in Friday’s 6-2 loss at Detroit, just the second time in his last nine outings that he’s given up more than three runs in a game. Garza is 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts this season, and the Rays are 9-3 in the right-hander’s last 12 efforts at The Trop.
Additionally, with Garza on the hill, the Rays are on runs of 4-1 against A.L. East rivals, 7-1 against Boston (playoffs included) and 6-0 the last six times he’s faced the Sox in Tampa. For his career, Garza is 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts versus Boston, including a pair of dominating playoff victories in last year’s ALCS. He’s faced the Sox four times this season, going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA.
Behind Beckett, the Red Sox are on “over” runs of 4-0 overall and 5-1 on Wednesday, but the under is 6-2 in his last eight outings against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Garza carries nothing but “under” trends, including 38-17-3 in his last 58 starts overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-0 against the A.L. East, 8-1-1 when facing winning opponents and 4-1 when he battles the BoSox. Finally, as a team, the Rays are on “under” stretches of 4-2 overall, 5-2-1 at home, 17-9 against A.L. East foes and 7-3 on Wednesday.
The Minnesota Twins have risen from the ashes in the American League Central to pull just 3.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the division.
Minnesota wrapped August with an 8-2 record in its last 10 games heading into Tuesday’s Game 2 with the White Sox. Chicago’s current funk has also helped the Twins' surge. The ChiSox have plummeted in the standing after posting an 11-17 record last month.
The biggest force pushing the Twins to within striking distance of the division title has been the team’s pitching staff. After underachieving all summer, the Minny arms posted a collective 3.17 ERA last week and made up for the lack of offense. The Twins managed to score just 20 runs on .255 hitting.
"We're playing pretty good and trying to keep it going," catcher Joe Mauer told the media. "We're worried about us winning games instead of looking at the scoreboard."
Minnesota took Game 1 4-1 Monday night and has won 20 of the past 26 meeting with the White Sox at the Metrodome heading into Tuesday.
Pick: Minnesota
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics (-160, 9)
When the cat’s away the mice will play.
The Kansas Royals are hoping this age-old adage proves true with manager Trey Hillman away from the team following the death of his father in-law. Hillman left Sunday and is expected to miss all three games with the A’s this week.
Bench coach and former Toronto Blue Jays skip John Gibbons has taken the reigns in Hillman’s absence. He took one on the chin Monday, losing 8-5 in Game 1 in Oakland. That loss was Kansas City’s 81st of the season and seventh in the past 10 games heading into Tuesday.
"I've got a good idea how (Hillman) does things and what he wants to do," Gibbons told reporters. "So I'll just run with that."
Perhaps Gibbons should try doing the opposite of his superior given that the Royals are on pace for another 100-loss season and have a tough schedule facing them in the final weeks of the season.
Going to the bump for Gibbons is struggling righty Brian Bannister. He’s been roughed up in his recent outings and has just one win in his nine starts since the All-Star break.
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies
Do you think Phillies fans would rather have Happ or Roy Halladay right now? This young lefty was routinely the name brought up in trade discussions for the Blue Jays ace back in July. The Phils decided to keep Happ and they haven't disappointed.
Happ's continued his solide 2009 campaign with a memorable run in August. Happ finished August with a 1.67 ERA and Philly went 4-1 in those five starts. Total bettors know about the kid's value. The under is a scorching 11-0 in his last 11 appearances.
Ted Lilly (9-8, 3.35), Chicago Cubs
This lefty has pitched great over his last three starts, but his slumping teammates have given him little support. Lilly has allowed just four earned runs and 3 in his last 19 1-3 innings. The under has cashed in each of those three outings
September has proved to be a good time to back the 33-year-old California native. Lilly went 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA last September and 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA the year before.
Slumping
Brian Bannister (7-11, 4.60), Kansas City Royals
You’re rolling the dice anytime you decide to back this streaky starter. Of course with the way he’s pitching and the way his team’s playing right now, the odds are stacked against Bannister bettors.
The righty hurler saw his ERA grow after a forgettable August. The Royals went 1-5 in his five starts and 2-4 on the runline.
He’s delivered quality starts in only two of his last nine trips to the mound. The over is 3-0 in his last three starts as well.
David Bush (3-5, 5.88), Milwaukee Brewers
Bush looked good in his first start since coming off a two-month stint on the DL last week. But he lost control of the game in the fifth inning when it looked like he ran out of gas.
“It’s frustrating, disappointing, whatever you want to say,” the righty said after getting charged with five runs in the 8-5 loss.
If you like the price of the Brewers today against Carpenter-led Cardinals, you might want to play the first five innings instead. Bush doesn’t look like his stamina is up to par yet after the long layoff
Most pundits thought the American League Central was the toughest division to predict at the beginning of the season and with less than a month to play, it appears we have a two-horse race. Detroit still holds a 3 ½-game lead over Minnesota but the two clubs still have to meet six times before the season ends. And right now the Twins are one of the hottest teams in the majors.
Ron Gardenhire’s club has gone 11-3 in the last 14 games and will look to sweep the White Sox at the Metrodome this afternoon. Last night, Minnesota escaped with a 4-3 triumph when Joe Morales hit a walkoff single in the ninth inning. The setback was the White Sox’s sixth straight at Minnesota and seventh of the season. Chicago has dropped eight of nine on its current 11-game road trek and it seems like the white flag is up, even though manager Ozzie Guillen has denied that notion. Chicago recently traded Jim Thome to the Dodgers and Jose Contreras to the Rockies on Monday.
The White Sox will have Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.89 ERA) on the hill today, but unfortunately he hasn’t been good since his perfect game against the Rays on July 23. Since then, he’s 0-4 with a 5.77 ERA in seven starts, and that includes giving up five runs to the Twins five days after the monumental feat. He does own a 23-15 lifetime mark against Minnesota, but is just 0-2 at the Metrodome in 2009. The Twins own an amazing 16-9 (64%) record against southpaws at home this year, however only two of those wins were in the daytime.
Minnesota will lean to rookie Brian Duensing (2-1, 4.37 ERA), who is 2-0 as a starter this year. Duensing is coming off an impressive performance against the Rangers, where he pitched seven innings and give up three hits and one run.
After this game, the Twins have a favorable schedule on deck. The next 13 games are Cleveland (6), Toronto (4) and Oakland (3). Is it time to hop on the boat or get off?
Gamblers have four other games on tap this afternoon and while none of the matchups are worth attending or probably even watching, you can bet on them and that’s probably the reason you’re reading this.
Let’s break ‘em down!
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m.) – Break up the Reds! Cincinnati is another club finishing strong despite its position and gamblers have been catching great value. Dusty Baker’s squad will try to complete a four-game sweep against the Pirates on Thursday. Including last night’s win, Cincy has won eight of its last 10 and the two losses came to the NL’s best, Los Angeles. Homer Bailey (4-4, 6.04 ERA) will try to be the broom master today for the Reds, who are hoping he has a repeat performance of his last start when he tossed eight scoreless innings against the aforementioned Dodgers last Friday. He’s now won two in a row and his only daytime start this year produced a win. The Pirates’ Zach Duke will try to cool off the Reds, but lately he hasn’t had any luck. The Bucs are 2-8 in his last 10 starts and the only two victories came when the team posted 10 and 12 runs. In the other eight, the team combined for 18. He does own a 3-3 record and 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against Cincinnati. Plus, the Reds are just 6-13 at home versus lefties this year.
Houston at Chicago (2:20 p.m.) – Another NL Central battle on the diamond today happens from Wrigley Field, where the Cubs’ Ted Lilly (9-8, 3.35 ERA) looks to stay hot at home against Houston. Chicago has won nine of his 10 starts at home this season and his ERA is an eye-opening 1.92. Did we mention that he owns a 6-1 career mark (2.84 ERA) against the Astros with three of the wins coming this year? Lilly is half the reason Chicago is a healthy favorite, the other half is Felipe Paulino (2-6, 6.96 ERA). He was just recalled from the minors in mid-August and his seen nothing but bullpen work in his return. In his last start on Aug. 4, Paulino gave up five runs and nine hits in 4 1-3 innings during an 8-1 loss to the Giants. The Cubs have seen him earlier in the year and they ripped him for four runs and five hits in less than an inning. Total players should note that the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in Lilly’s 10 starts at Wrigley Field.
Kansas City at Oakland (3:35 p.m.) – My colleague and VI handicapper Kevin Rogers pointed out a great late-season trend on the Royals to me and it fits this afternoon. Kansas City is 1-13 in its last 14 games after it wins, with the last set of back-to-back victories coming on July 27-28. In case you don’t know, KC edged Oakland 4-3 last night and now faces the daunting task of winning again. Will they or won’t they? The A’s toss Trevor Cahill on the mound and he’s been nasty of late, giving up just four runs and 13 hits in the last 20 innings. The club is 3-0 during this stretch. He has been roughed at home (5-7) a tad and his afternoon record (2-4) is nothing to brag about either, but he has beaten the Royals in his only career start. KC hands the pill to Brian Bannister, who has been given up four runs or more in each of his last five. The Royals have dropped five in a row with him on the mound and eight of 10. Even though the ‘under’ cashed in Tuesday’s affair, the previous six encounters between the two teams went ‘over’ the number.
Washington at San Diego (3:35 p.m.) – If you follow the Nationals this year, then you know how up and down the offense is. Right now, it’s down and near the bottom too. San Diego held Washington in check for the second straight night, claiming a 4-1 home victory. The Nats have scored nine runs in the last five games, which has resulted in a 0-5 record. The Padres still sit in the cellar of the NL West but the club has won six of eight and after last night’s win, and they secured their third straight series win too. John Lannan will try to help the team avoid the sweep this afternoon. It’s tough to label Lannan the as the Nats’ ace, but he’s been the best on a club with just 46 wins. Unfortunately, he’s been tattooed on the road (3-8, 5.57 ERA) this season. The Padres are only 20-24 versus southpaws this year, yet they have gone 4-2 (67%) in home day games against lefties. San Diego will counter with Kevin Correia, who has helped the club to a 4-1 mark in his last five starts although he’s been helped with an average of 5 runs per game durig his run. Correia hasn’t fared well in afternoon games, evidenced by his 2-3 record and 4.93 ERA. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the five battles between the Nats and Padres this year.
Baseball bettors should be cautious of Wild Card race
By JON KUIPERIJ
If you’re thinking of backing teams in the Wild Card hunt during the final month of the season, you should think again.
Sure, those teams need wins more than squads that have comfortable division leads or clubs that are out of playoff contention.
But there are a few reasons to avoid - or even bet against - some of the Wild Card hopefuls down the stretch.
They're often overpriced as oddsmakers prey on one of the betting public's natural tendencies.
"People generally back the team that is supposed to win, thinking that they should win since they have incentive," says oddsmaker Michael Perry.
This is particularly true when Wild Card contenders are home favorites.
"We count on those matches being heavily one-sided," says sportsbook manager Randy Scott.
If these teams were good enough to win when they had to, they wouldn't need the September victories so badly in the first place.
"Teams fighting for the Wild Card do not necessarily perform any better than their overall numbers would indicate, largely because they're not great teams to begin with," says David Malinsky. "Outside of the American League East, teams fighting for the Wild Card from other divisions most seasons are just a bit above average."
The pressure of the playoff race often has a negative effect on Wild Card contenders, particularly younger squads.
"Nerves can be a little brittle as we get this deep into the schedule," Malinsky says. "In a sport in which so much is determined above the bill of the cap, the ability to stay focused and not try to do too much comes into play."
Last season, the four top teams in the American League Wild Card chase and top three squads in the National League hunt went a combined 94-86 in the final month. Even the eventual Wild Card winners stumbled to the finish line. The Milwaukee Brewers were 10-16 in September, while the Chicago White Sox went 12-15.
And who can forget the Mets' collapse in 2007, when New York lost six of its final seven games to finish one game behind NL Wild Card winner Colorado. The lowest moneyline on the Mets in those seven games was -207 on the final day, when they lost 8-1 to the Florida Marlins.
Of course, not all teams wilt in the heat of the Wild Card pressure. The Rockies won 14 of their last 15 games to overtake New York in that 2007 race.
"I do pay attention to streaks in September. There always seems to be a team that chokes or gets extremely hot," Steve Merril says. "I don't like to buck these trends late in the year."
Often, teams that seemed in control of a playoff spot in August will struggle in September, while squads that appeared out of contention at the All-Star Break can come out of nowhere.
The Detroit Tigers led the AL Central by 10 games in early August of 2006, but went 19-31 in their final 50 games to barely win the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros played themselves back into the NL Wild Card race in the last two months of 2008, going 36-18 during that stretch.
The ability to handle the burden of expectation comes with experience, which is why Malinsky and Merril both like the Boston Red Sox to edge out the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays for this year's AL Wild Card.
The handicappers have different views on the NL race, however.
Malinsky feels the Atlanta Braves have underachieved to this point and are poised to make a run, while Merril believes the Rockies' red-hot play under manager Jim Tracy will continue down the stretch.
The wild card among the Wild Cards, Merril adds, could be the San Francisco Giants. All-Star pitchers Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain could start three of five playoff games in the Wild Card round and possibly five of seven contests in the NLCS and World Series.
"They probably won't make the playoffs, but if they do they would have an excellent chance of winning the whole thing," says Merril.
MLB Top 5: Best over bets since the All-Star break
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
During the first half of the baseball season, over players took a beating.
Only a handful of teams consistently played above the total. There were about 10 teams playing at an even rate, while virtually half the league was falling below the total on a regular basis.
Since the All-Star break, however, that has changed. A couple of teams have had offensive surges and are topping the total more consistently than they were in the first half.
The team at the top of the list is still the same, though.
Let's take a look at the top five "over" teams since the All-Star break.
Oakland Athletics
This is a bit of a surprise, given that they dumped Matt Holliday on the St. Louis Cardinals. Getting rid of Jason Giambi's dormant bat may have been a plus.
The A's were well under the .500 mark at the break but are 24-18-1 over/under since, which is just under the 58 percent win rate bettors are looking for. As they repeatedly trot out inexperienced pitchers, this trend may continue.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins were nearly 10 games under .500 against the over at the break but are providing a return on investment in the second half with a 21-15-4 over record, a clip of 58 percent.
Most of Minnesota's rotation is on the disabled list and Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker have wilted under the heavy lifting. Jeff Manship debuted as a starter Tuesday, and September is certain to bring more call-ups.
Florida Marlins
The Marlins have avoided the under trend that has affected most teams, in part because their roster is filled with young players who are tough to project. Overall, they have the third-best over mark of 68-56-7 and have been in the top third of the league all season.
Since the break, Florida has taken off, clearing the total at a 25-15-1 over/under rate (62 percent). Already a bad fielding team, the Marlins had a stretch of nine consecutive overs paydays in August, fueled by a streak of 15 straight games with at least 10 hits.
It's hard to say whether the Marlins can maintain their pace. They are a tough team to decipher.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers can hit a little bit -they are 10th in homers (151) and runs (633). But their team ERA of 4.87 looks more like a field-goal percentage and ranks 27th in the league.
Since the break, the over is 25-14-1 in Milwaukee's games, a rate of nearly 64 percent, and has pushed their over record to second in the league. The Brewers have been very streaky, with four stretches of at least three over finishes in the second half.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have been atop the over standings virtually all season. With a 76-49-5 over/under record, they have been a solid 60 percent play to top the total for five months.
With their balance of speed and power, erratic rotation and sloppy bullpen, the Angels have been an awesome over play since the break, racking up a 29-14-1 over/under mark that includes 13 in a row in late July.
The addition of Scott Kazmir may be a mitigating factor, but he can only make six starts the rest of the way.
Inside the lines 9/2
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