Oregon 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
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The Oregon Ducks finished second in the Pac-10 again in 2008, tied with Oregon State and a game behind Southern Cal. But this team really took off after losing to the Trojans, winning six of its final seven games, including a rout of Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl.
This team averaged 280 yards a game to finish second in the country. Oregon led the nation in runs of over 10 yards with 128 - a number that led the Pac-10 by 50. The Ducks were also third in the country with 37 runs of 20-plus yards.
That offense will be stellar again behind RB LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards (7.3 yards per carry) and 17 touchdowns. And QB Jeremiah Masoli exploded in the final two games last year (5 TD passes, no picks, four rushing TDs) and is one of the best dual-threat signal-callers in the country.
It all comes down to the defense this season. That unit gave up at least 24 points eight times last year, including the final four games. The defense brings back just five starters but maybe that’s not such a bad thing.
Oregon’s 2009 schedule (times remain in flux):
September 3 at Boise State
September 12 vs. Purdue
September 19 vs. Utah
September 26 vs. California
October 3 vs. Washington State
October 10 at UCLA
October 24 at Washington
October 31 vs. USC
November 7 at Stanford
November 14 vs. Arizona State
November 21 at Arizona
December 3 vs. Oregon State
That opening game against Boise State is must-see TV. It will probably exceed 90 points on the blue turf. Kudos to the Ducks for playing at Boise, as every other BCS team avoids playing there. If Oregon wins that one, then that sets Oregon up to be a player for the national title. I do think the Ducks eke out a win.
Oregon should then go on a nice six-game winning streak. Again kudos to the Ducks for scheduling some good non-conference games in Utah and Purdue after Boise State. That will help in the computer polls when the BCS standings come out. But Oregon should be able to win its way into the USC game at 7-0.
Despite losing 44-10 last year to the Trojans, I like a Duck upset at home this year. The last time the game was in Eugene, Oregon beat USC. That young Trojan defense will have trouble slowing the Duck offense. If Oregon wins this game and is 8-0, it will be certainly ranked in the Top 5 in the country.
But this season could play out much like 2007, when Oregon beat USC and was in the national title race. That year, the Ducks were upset in Arizona (Dennis Dixon got hurt) to knock them off course. I think that happens again for Oregon’s only loss of the regular season. Unfortunately, that loss will come too late to get into the BCS national title game, but 11-1 and 8-1 in the conference will get the school a Rose Bowl berth.
Oregon is set at +3300 to win the national title and that is worth a few bucks because it is excellent value. Oregon's win total is 8 and I think that’s stealing - take the over. The Ducks are +500 to win the Pac-10 and that’s also worth a flier. If this is the year USC gets knocked off its perch, the Ducks will be the team to do it.
Coaching changes are becoming more and more commonplace in college football and this year there are eleven coaches among the 65 BCS conference teams that did not start last season as the head coach. Coincidentally there were 11 such changes in 2008 and 11 in 2007, meaning that every year there is turnover in almost 17 percent of the major conference jobs, at least in recent years.
By general logic one would expect that a first-year coach might struggle a bit in the opening game of the season, obviously the nerves and pressure will be high and his players have never gone through the tense game day situations with the staff. It has not proven to be the case on an against the spread measure as in 2007 new coaches from BCS schools went 3-3 ATS and in 2008 they went 4-4. It is difficult to grasp a full measure of the impact as many teams are playing non-FBS unlined games in those openers but by and large some teams have performed terrifically and others have struggled in game one.
It might make sense for the opening game of the second season under a head coach to go much smoother, having been through a season already and knowing what to expect. Obviously all coaches come from different backgrounds and some have previously had leading experience but the continuity and routine should be much more practiced and prepared in that second season. Oddly last season those second-year major conference coaches did poorly, going just 2-5 ATS in the seven lined games.
There are several notable coaching changes this season in the major conferences including three in the SEC but if the past two years are an indication, a new coach should not be reason enough to go against a team. If you are looking to analyze teams in terms of coaches next week there may be more support for going against a second year coach as overall optimism in the program may be higher than justified and excuses that passed in a rookie season will not cut it.
Some of the coaches in their second season this year and facing elevated expectations and intriguing opening week games are: Houston Nutt at Mississippi, Rick Neuheisel at UCLA, Rich Rodriguez at Michigan, Art Briles at Baylor, and Bo Pelini at Nebraska. There are others, but many are playing lower division teams in unlined games this week and will be more difficult to judge.
Expectations are sky-high for Ole Miss this season and after limited national interest the past few seasons this year’s Memphis/Mississippi showdown gets a national stage Sunday afternoon. Having a great turnaround season with low expectations is one thing but everyone will be ready for the Rebels this year. Although the Rebels grab what looks like one of the most favorable schedules in the SEC, it is still a SEC schedule and there will be very few easy outs.
Neuheisel has avoided controversy so far at UCLA but the expectations will be greatly elevated this season. Last year UCLA lost by 21 or more points six times so there is a lot of ground to be made up even if there is significant talent in place. The Bruins did not receive consistent QB play last year and turnovers have been a serious problem.
At Michigan there is no where to go but up after a school-worst season. Rodriguez has improved teams quickly in the past and he should have significantly more talent this season but leadership could be a question mark and it is hard to think of too many teams that have sustained success in a two-QB system let alone playing three as the Wolverines intend to at least in the early going this year. Already the Wolverines are embroiled in some controversy and instant improvement may be more difficult than some might expect.
Baylor is once again relevant and although the Bears were much more competitive last season they still won just four games. Briles has a great track record but this team still plays in an extremely tough division and has not made a bowl trip in 15 years. Baylor will need a lot of things to go its way in several games to even begin the discussion about being a bowl team.
Nebraska expects to return to the top of the Big XII North and bridge the gap with the South powers in the conference but that type of sentiment was thought of in the Bill Callahan era as well and that did not end up so well. Pelini had a solid season getting Nebraska to nine wins last year but there were still a few lopsided losses and the expectations are still for the Huskers to be a national title contender year-in and year-out.
All of those teams have a certain buzz about them this year but you should be weary of putting too much backing into teams that have not yet proven it on the field when the expectations are elevated. The general rule is that by year three a coach should start to see real progress and should start to be evaluated as the first two years will feature very few players actually recruited by the coach. A strong year one may have meant the previous coach underachieved and a poor year one may have meant the cupboard was bare. In this day and age many schools are not patient to ride out the rebuilding process and year two is becoming more and more critical as the expectations are growing.
Just because it’s the first week of the season doesn’t mean there are teams that won’t be looking ahead to what awaits them. While that won’t make some fans too happy, it makes gamblers damn near giddy at the prospect of starting their year off right.
So which openers give us a chance to lay down with the underdogs? Let’s take a look at a trio of games that fall under this category.
Buckeye Bump…
Ohio State is considered once again to be among the class of the Big Ten. It’s hard not to believe the same when looking at the rest of the league. But the Buckeyes could have their hands full this season as they face Navy as 22 ½-point home favorites and a total of 47 this Saturday at noon EDT.
I know that a lot of people will say that there isn’t a reason to be afraid of the Midshipmen since they’re returning only four starters from last season. Navy seems to just reload its triple-option offense on a regular basis. In 2008, they had just five starters back from the following year on offense. All the Middies did last year was lead the nation with 292.4 rushing yards per game.
Navy’s preferred method of attack will no doubt disrupt the Buckeyes’ defense. The Bucks’ have a talented defensive unit, but they are starting some new faces in the linebacker role. It also doesn’t help that OSU hasn’t faced a triple-option attack in quite some time.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Buckeyes will have an eye towards next week’s showdown with Southern California. Ohio State was humiliated 35-3 as a 10 ½-point road pups out west last year.
The stats would suggest that OSU is a safe play here as they’re 5-0 straight up and against the spread in its last five home openers. However, this team went 1-5 ATS at Ohio Stadium last year.
Speed Bump for the Bruins…
Rick Neuheisel’s 4-8 first year at UCLA wasn’t exactly what everyone in Westwood was hoping for, but it is a start nonetheless. The betting shops are expecting a nice start for the Bruins in 2009 by making them 19-point home favorites against San Diego State with a total of 51 ½.
It isn’t hard to understand the sportsbook’s line of thinking here. This is a Pac-10 school under a coach that has done well in the past against a team that hasn’t won six games since 2003. Also, The Bruins have won and covered the number in the last eight head-to-head matchups.
What people shouldn’t forget about is that UCLA has to make a trip to Knoxville next week to face Layne Kiffin’s Volunteers. Not an easy task to take on.
Something else to wrap your head around is the fact that Neuheisel stinks as a favorite. Over his stays at Colorado, Washington and UCLA, Neuheisel is 55-12 SU. However, he is just 19-46 ATS in those same matchups.
No Luck for the Irish…
Things have been pretty lackluster for the Golden Domers over the last two years under Charlie Weis. Look at how Notre Dame celebrated winning the Hawaii Bowl last December as proof of how the bar is starting to get lower. But there is reason to be optimistic in South Bend this fall as the Irish return nine starters on their offense.
The sportsbooks are anticipating a good start for the Fighting Irish as well in making them 14-point home faves against Nevada with a total of 61. And you might be able to get that line at 15 in some betting shops now.
What is surprising is how everyone is hitting up the Irish for this game. The Wolf Pack aren’t exactly a bunch drunken fools on the field. This club is one of the trendy picks to challenge Boise State in the WAC this year. Nevada’s quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, is the reining conference offensive player of the year with 2,849 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and just seven picks.
Notre Dame also has its annual showdown with the Wolverines the following Saturday. I’ll grant you that this showdown doesn’t have the same sheen as it once did, but it’s still a major rivalry for both programs.
If you’re looking for hard numbers to consider when wanting to fade the Domers, then consider this: The Fighting Irish are just 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight season openers.
South Carolina (0-0) at N.C. State (0-0)
7:00 p.m. ( ESPN)
Carter-Finley Stadium (Natural Grass)
Line: N.C. State -5, O/U 46
Hard to believe this will be my 10th year of handicapping on VegasInsider.com. There have certainly been some hot streaks and a few cold slumps along the way but I’ve honestly enjoyed every minute of it.
What better way to kick off my 10th season than a Thursday night doubleheader, with one of the games carrying major BCS implications. Of course, that would be when the 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks fly over to Idaho to face the 14-th ranked Boise State Broncos. But first – as was the case last year – we’ll catch a little ACC/SEC action as South Carolina visits N.C. State.
To give you a little perspective on just how much has changed in the college ranks since I started here, just consider the career of the “ole ball coach,” Steve Spurrier. Back in 1999, Spurrier was still comfortably at the helm of one of the most powerful programs – and offenses – in the country, at his alma-mater Florida.
Of course, as we all know, Spurrier just had to scratch that NFL itch and bolted for the Washington Redskins and big bucks in 2002. After that experiment proved to be another Daniel Snyder bust, Spurrier made his way back to the college ranks and to Columbia, S.C.
Similarly, head coach Tom O’Brien was in the midst of a very impressive run of his own - at Boston College - ten years ago. In 2006 O’Brien felt the need for change and headed to Raleigh, N.C. to take over the Wolfpack.
Florida fans such as VegasInsider’s own Brian Edwards might chime in at this point and say that besides the coach, not a whole lot has changed at Florida as the Gators are still winning a ton of games and piling up the points. Maybe there is something in the water in Gainesville because Spurrier doesn’t seem to be winning games the way he once did.
You certainly don’t think of Spurrier teams being offensively challenged but let’s face facts – South Carolina has won a lot more games with their defense over the past couple of years than with their offense. Once the coach with the golden touch when it came to producing QBs, Spurrier hasn’t had a reliable signal-caller in Columbia in years.
Maybe that will change this season. Then again, maybe it won’t.
This much is certain: South Carolina can’t lead the nation again in interceptions as they did in 2008 with 27 and possibly hope to win seven games and go bowling again. It just won’t happen.
The Gamecocks started 2008 with Tommy Beecher under center and he was intercepted by N.C. State less than three minutes into the season opener. USC ended the season in much the same way as Stephen Garcia threw four picks in a 31-10 loss to Iowa in the Outback Bowl. And as the above stat would indicate, there were plenty of interceptions in between those games.
Spurrier might have had a tough decision on his hands if a QB with any experience was returning along with Garcia. But Chris Smelley (All-name team) transferred out and Beecher graduated so the keys have been handed to Garcia.
With just five returning starters on offense and having to find a new ground game, it looks like Spurrier will again be leaning on his defense to carry the team. The good news is that LB Eric Norwood is back after passing up the NFL draft. The senior seems to have been in Columbia forever and considering he had nine sacks last year and was second on the team in tackles, Spurrier is thankful he is back.
The bad news is the rest of the defense is pretty green, including two corners who have never played a college game. Making matters worse is that suspensions will keep three defensive starters from playing against North Carolina State. DE Clifton Geathers (resisting arrest, disorderly conduct and public drunkenness), tackle Ladi Ajiboye (marijuana arrest), and CB C.C. Whitlock (arrested for trespassing at a nightclub) are all out. Those three would make an interesting episode of COPS but unfortunately won’t provide much else entertainment this Thursday night.
All that bunch will have to do is go on the road and face an N.C. State team that is just dying for a little payback after getting embarrassed by the Gamecocks 34-0 last year in Columbia.
This is certainly a different Wolfpack squad than a year ago. Unlike Spurrier, coach Tom O’Brien has found his QB in sophomore Russell Wilson. The ACC Freshman of the Year in 2008, Wilson led an offense that got better every game and ended the year on a roll, averaging 34 points in the last three games.
Like South Carolina, N.C. State also returns six starters on defense and have their share of issues on that side of the ball. O’Brien was dealt a big blow this summer when LB Nate Irving was injured in a car accident and will likely miss the season.
The difference here seems to be that Wilson and the Wolfpack appear better equipped to exploit those defensive issues than does the Gamecocks offense. Running back Toney Baker is back after sitting out two seasons due to knee surgeries and should form a nice 1-2 punch with Jamelle Eugene.
One thing is for sure, it doesn’t get any easier for Spurrier. After the opener, the Gamecocks travel to Athens to face Georgia in Week 2 and wrap up September by welcoming the No. 8 team in the nation, Ole Miss into Williams-Brice Stadium.
#16 Oregon (0-0) at #14 Boise State
10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Bronco Stadium (Blue AstroPlay)
Line: Boise State -4, O/U 64
I’m no programming executive at ESPN but after a 34-0 snooze fest between the two above schools to start 2008, I’m not sure why these teams were again selected to lead off 2009. Regardless, I’ll skip the appetizer and head straight for the main course because the nightcap between Oregon and Boise State should not only be the best game this week but maybe one of the best all season.
And for Boise State, it could define its entire season since it’s pretty easy to see the Broncos going 13-0 if they can get past the Ducks, especially catching the other contender in the WAC, Nevada, at home. The stats just don’t lie: Boise State is 64-2 at home in the past 10 years.
With those kind of numbers it’s easy to see why Oregon is just the first ranked opponent to visit Bronco Stadium for a regular-season game and just the third program from a Bowl Championship Series conference to do so. In short, not many programs want a taste of what Boise State is dishing out on the “Smurf Turf."
Obviously, the Broncos are certainly no stranger to success as the program has posted an undefeated regular season in three of the past five years. That said, the early hype is something new for this squad as their No. 14 preseason ranking is an all-time record. Considering that over the past seven years Boise State has ended the season in the Top 25 the five times they weren't ranked in the preseason and finished out of the Top 25 the two years they were ranked. Some may wonder if the hype is a good thing.
One thing is certain – there will be some fireworks in this game.
Oregon will have to contend with Boise State sophomore quarterback Kellen Moore, who was the WAC Freshman of the Year last season when he completed 69.4 percent of his passes. Oregon certainly remembers Moore who – as a freshman – walked into Autzen Stadium and shredded the Ducks for 386 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-32 Boise State win.
On the other side, the Broncos will have to deal with junior QB Jeremiah Masoli who started last season 5th on the depth chart but is now the man in Eugene. Masoli can burn a defense with his arm and legs – just ask Oklahoma State – and is a perfect fit for coach Chip Kelly’s spread attack. Masoili put up 364 total yards of offense to go with four touchdowns en route to the Ducks 42-31 victory over the Cowboys in the Holiday Bowl.
When Masoli doesn’t tuck it and run, he can look to speed on the outside with WR Jamere Holland or simply hand off to RB LeGarrette Blount - who rushed for 1,002 yards while splitting time with Jeremiah Johnson last season. With Johnson gone, the stage is all Blount’s and the bruising back with sneaky speed should have a big year.
Looking at overall numbers, neither team has much leadership returning as Oregon just brings back nine starters from 2008 while Boise State is just a bit better with 11 returning starters.
Both teams have questionable defenses – especially Oregon – and the Ducks will have to contend with a largely rebuilt offensive line. With all the focus on the potent offenses, this game will likely be won by the team with the defense that can make that one extra stop.
We made our SEC predictions back in mid-July and now it’s time to take a deeper look at each team. Let’s also touch on several personnel developments during recent practices and scrimmages.
Florida freshman wide receiver Andre DeBose, who many were prematurely talking about as “Percy Harvin’s replacement,” is going to miss a considerable amount of time after sustaining a serious hamstring injury.
“It’s a very unique injury,” Urban Meyer told the Gainesville Sun. “There’s an issue with the tendon.”
UF is expected to make a decision on surgery sometime this week. If DeBose goes under the knife, he will most likely redshirt. This development makes senior WR Riley Cooper’s decision to return to school even more important. Cooper played baseball all summer and signed an MLB contract, but he’s finishing his football career as a walk-on.
The Gators will host Charleston Southern this weekend before taking on Troy at The Swamp in Week 2. Sportsbook.com still has UF as a 24-point home favorite for its Week 3 clash against Tennessee in the SEC opener for both schools that’s still listed under the website’s Games of the Year section.
Georgia is prepping for Saturday’s trip to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma St. As of Wednesday morning, most spots had the Dawgs listed as six-point road underdogs with a total of 61 ½.
The big development out of Athens in recent weeks has been the lingering hamstring injury sustained by running back Caleb King, who finally returned to practice Monday after being out since Aug. 12. Richard Samuel has moved ahead of King in the pecking order and will start against the Cowboys. UGA starting center Ben Jones also returned to practice Monday after being out since Aug. 19 with an ankle sprain. Jones will start at OSU.
Oklahoma State’s only returning starter in the secondary is Perrish Cox, who was arrested last week for speeding and driving with a suspended license. As of early Wednesday, OSU head coach Mike Gundy had not indicated whether or not Cox would be disciplined. Cox was third in the nation in kick returns in 2008, scoring a pair of TDs.
South Carolina is poised to take on North Carolina St. this Thursday on ESPN. As I’ve said many times this summer and at the VI Seminar, third-year sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia is under more pressure to perform in 2009 that any other player in the country. The Gamecocks don’t have any other QBs who have ever taken a collegiate snap.
Garcia has reportedly looked sharp in recent practices. Steve Spurrier told GamecockCentral after Sunday’s indoor practice, “Stephen actually looked pretty good throwing. "Hopefully, he's as ready as he can be. Of course, I've said that before. So, I'd better say cautiously that we're believing he is prepared to play."
Spurrier released his two-deep depth chart Monday, naming junior Brian Maddox as his starting tailback. Carolina’s starting DE Clifton Geathers is suspended indefinitely (for the opener at NC St. at least) after his arrest two weeks ago.
The line for this game was on the rise Monday, as most books adjusted N.C. St. to either 4 ½ or five-point status as the home favorite. The ‘Cocks are plus-170 on the money line at most books (risk $100 to win $170).
VI’s Kevin Rogers thinks South Carolina is the team to fade in the SEC. “Steve Spurrier has failed to get the Gamecocks into the elite of the SEC in his four seasons with USC,” Rogers said. “Yes, he has to deal with his alma mater, Florida, in the SEC East. However, the Gamecocks have not won more than eight games since 2001. South Carolina begins the season with two rough road games at NC State and Georgia, which could make or break their season out of the gate.”
Tennessee has named senior QB Jonathan Crompton as its starter under center. Crompton was highly regarded coming out of high school, but he was awful during a junior campaign in which he completed only 51.5 percent of his passes with a 4/5 touchdown-interception ratio.
The best news out of Knoxville lately was the NCAA’s ruling that RB Bryce Brown is eligible. Brown, considered the nation’s No. 1 freshman by many recruitniks, was cleared last week after an investigation into whether or not he improperly received payments to visit colleges and attend football camps during his high school years.
Brown is expected to start Saturday when UT collides with Western Kentucky at Neyland Stadium. The Vols are 29-point favorites at most betting shops.
Vanderbilt named sophomore Larry Smith as its starting QB on Monday. Smith beat out senior Mackenzi Adams, who has nine career starts and 14 career TD passes. Smith made his first career start in last year’s Music City Bowl win over Boston College by a 16-14 count.
The Commodores open Saturday against Western Carolina in a non-lined game.
VI’s Chris Davis thinks Vandy is the team to fade in the SEC. David said, “The Commodores surprised a lot of folks last year with a 5-0 start and eventually went on to win a bowl game, too. What you might not recall is that Vanderbilt lost six of its last seven games and barely beat BC in the Music City Bowl. A win is a win and you don’t want to discredit Vandy but it was very fortunate last year. The Commodores were helped with 30 turnovers and five of the seven victories were by seven or less. Winning tight games and the turnover battle can make or break a season and that’s what happened in 2008. Personally, I just don’t see lightning striking twice in Nashville.”
Alabama is poised to go up against the favorite in the ACC, Va. Tech, on Saturday night at the Georgia Dome. The Crimson Tide is a healthy seven-point favorite against the Hokies at most spots.
This game temporarily went off the board last week due to the uncertain status of sophomore WR Julio Jones and sophomore RB Mark Ingram, who went on a boating trip in Orange Beach with an individual name Curtis Anderson earlier this year. The school has investigated the situation and opted not to self-impose penalties. However, Nick Saban has refused to address the situation because the NCAA has yet to clear the players.
Anderson is reportedly not an Alabama alum or booster. In other news out of Tuscaloosa, starting DE Brandon Deadrick (36 tackles, four sacks in ’08) was shot in the arm during a robbery attempt Monday night. The injury was not life-threatening but it’s safe to assume that Deadrick’s status for the V-Tech game is very much in doubt.
LSU will hit the road Saturday to face Washington in ESPN’s 10:30 Eastern game. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Tigers as 14-point road favorites, but this number was in the 17-18 range Tuesday.
David likes the Bayou Bengals to bounce back from a five-loss campaign that followed their national-championship season of 2007. David offered this take: “LSU finished last year strong with a big bowl win over Georgia Tech and that will bring confidence into this season. Jordan Jefferson finally showed some confidence behind center and RB Charles Scott is a beast when he gets going. The Tigers tossed six interceptions in losses to Ole Miss and Alabama last year. This season, they face that duo on the road and if they can limit the mistakes, don’t be surprised to see upsets. I do think LSU will lose a close game to Florida at home in the regular season but will get revenge in the title game. We all know the Gators are great but both Alabama and Oklahoma had chances to unseat the national champs in the SEC and BCS championships in 2008. It didn’t happen then, but I believe it can happen this December in Atlanta.”
Ole Miss is the other member of what most think is a three-horse race in the SEC West. The Rebels haven’t had pre-season expectations this high since the 1960s, not even in Eli Manning’s senior year in Oxford.
Houston Nutt’s squad is a 17-point road favorite for Sunday’s 3:30 p.m. ESPN game at Memphis. Keep in mind that Memphis is less than an hour from Oxford, so the fans at the Liberty Bowl should be a 50/50 split if the Rebels don’t actually have more support in the stands.
A lot of handicappers, including this one, are thinking of Arkansas as the SEC’s sleeper squad. The Razorbacks will play a non-lined game Saturday versus Missouri St. before an open date precedes a crucial home tilt against Georgia.
Arkansas sophomore starting cornerback Isaac Madison was lost for the season two weeks ago when he went down with an ACL tear. Ryan Mallett, the transfer from Michigan, has been named the starting QB, but bettors shouldn’t be surprised if backup Tyler Wilson gets playing time at some point. He has steadily been pushing Mallett both in spring practice and preseason drills.
Auburn is the team nobody is talking about after the surprising hire of Gene Chizik, who went 5-19 in two seasons as the head coach at Iowa St. Tim Trushel of the SportsMemo defended the hiring at the VI Seminar, noting Chizik’s outstanding work as defensive coordinator when Texas won the national title in 2006 and when Auburn went 13-0 in 2004.
Trushel said, “You can’t compare what he did with inferior athletes at Iowa St. to what he’ll be able to do with the type of players Auburn gets. I like Auburn ‘over’ seven wins for their season total.”
VI’s Jimmy Rotunda “doesn’t see it” with the Tigers, who will go with Chris Todd as their starting QB. Kodi Burns has moved from QB to wide receiver.
David agrees with Trushel about Auburn, tagging it as his SEC sleeper. David raved about the hiring of offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who coached USC’s Mitch Mustain and Damian Williams in high school and has served as oc at both Arkansas and Tulsa in recent years.
Mississippi St. has the least expectations of any SEC school in the first year of Dan Mullen’s tenure. The Bulldogs will take on Jacksonville St. in Starkville this Saturday. A familiar name in the SEC, Ryan Perrilloux, is the starting QB for Jax St. However, to the surprise of nobody from Baton Rouge, Perrilloux has been suspended for the opener at Scott Field.
Mullen has been mum on the status of RB Anthony Dixon, who was arrested for DUI earlier this summer.
College football's biggest quarterback concerns
By DAVID PAYNE
The psychology of naming a starting quarterback is fascinating.
Some coaches do it as soon as possible, in some cases too soon. Others wait it out to “keep the competition going all the way to kick off.” Take the coach speak out of that statement, and you’re left with neither quarterback has out-played the other one.
And there’s always the good old two-quarterback platoon. Other than Leak and Tebow, has that ever worked?
Either way, not having a solidified starter at the most important position is a major concern and something bettors need to know.
Here are five teams entering the season with question marks under center:
USC Trojans
Spin it however you want—and Pete Carroll has—but starting true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley shows at least a hint of desperation.
Reports from last week’s mock game have the 18-year-old Barkley looking comfortable, but only when there was not pressure applied from a scout defense comprised of third teamers and walk-ons.
"We've got to make it easy for him," Carroll told the Los Angeles Times. "We're already talking among ourselves that we have to be careful."
“Careful” doesn’t cover gigantic point spreads.
No matter how much Barkley has impressed the coaching staff, he still wasn’t able to beat out sophomore Aaron Corp, until Corp went down with a leg injury on August 10.
Notice how Carroll waited until Corp returned to practice, before naming Barkley the starter. Maybe it was out of respect for Corp, who admits he’s not 100 percent recovered from a cracked fibula. But it seems more likely that Carroll wasn’t won over by Barkley as quickly as he’d like fans to think.
Remember, Carroll, who always keeps his California cool, threw a little bit of a fit, when Mark Sanchez announced he was leaving early for the NFL. It was out of the character for one of the best in the business, who, perhaps, was a little concerned with what was left behind.
Boston College Eagles
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Eagles. After their projected starter was suspended and eventually transferred, new head coach Frank Spaziani was left without a quarterback with any college experience.
David Shinskie, a 25-year-old minor league baseball player, enrolled and instantly became the favorite to be the starter. But Shinskie broke a rib last week and has missed practice time.
He hasn’t been ruled out, but it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to shake off a broken rib in time face Northeastern in the season opener.
That leaves redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle and true freshman Michael Marscovetra as the remaining options. Spaziani said he’ll choose a starter after Tuesday’s practice.
But it hasn’t mattered who was at quarterback during preseason practice. The Eagles’ offense has struggled mightily. They didn’t score a touchdown until the final play of their second scrimmage.
“The QB play leaves a lot to be desired,” Spaziani told reporters.
Washington State Cougars
It’s ugly in Pullman.
Cougar coach Paul Wulff is going with a two-quarterback platoon of senior Kevin Lopina and sophomore Marshall Lobbestael.
That’s the same duo that combined to throw four touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season.
Lopina was responsible for 11 of those picks and none of the touchdowns. He’ll get the start Saturday against Stanford (-17).
Michigan Wolverines
It’s been a rough stretch for Wolverine fans.
It began with the realization that freshman quarterback Tate Forcier isn’t as of now the second coming of Pat White.
Many thought Forcier was tailor-made to run coach Rick Rodriguez’s spread option attack and would instantly erase the memories of last year’s struggles. But he hasn’t done enough to separate himself from the pack.
Rodriguez plans on playing three quarterbacks - Forcier, senior Nick Sheridan and true freshman Denard Robinson - in Saturday’s opener against Western Michigan.
In addition to the QB concerns, there is an investigation into reports that Rodriguez is exceeding NCAA time limits on football –related activities raise some big flags around Ann Arbor.
Michigan opened as a 13-point favorite against Western Michigan, but the line is dropping and down to as little as 11.5 at some books.
Utah Utes
Junior college transfer Terrance Cain has been receiving the majority of the snaps in practice, but coach Kyle Whittingham has refused to name him the starter.
On Monday, Whittingham said the decision has been made and the team had been informed, but no official announcement would be made before Thursday’s opener against Utah State.
Freshman Jordan Wynn was the No. 1 guy early in camp, but it appears Cain, the Junior College Player of the Year, overtook him during the final two weeks of camp.
It would be a surprise to most if Cain isn’t the first under center when the Utes (-20.5) host the Aggies, who are coached by former Utah defensive coordinator Greg Andersen.
Cain is a dual-threat quarterback, who right now is a better runner than passer.
The Wiz Of Odds: Don't get weak during Week 1
By JAY CHRISTENSEN
The end of hibernation for college football fans is near.
It has been 238 long days since last season’s BCS title game. Thursday marks the start of the 2009 season.
For months, bettors have been preparing for Week 1 games, building up their bankrolls, reading as much literature they can get their hands on and scouring the Internet to track injuries and suspensions of key players.
And now that the magical day has nearly arrived, what should a bettor do?
Not a damn thing.
That’s right — do not place a bet on opening week. Instead, wait, watch and listen.
Betting NCAAF Week 1What is the best way to wager Week 1 of college football?
NCAAF Week 1 has value
David Payne says you should strike early while the playing field between bettors and books is even.
NCAAF Week 1 matchups
Take a look at Week 1's games.
Let’s count the reasons:
Lack of competitive games
There are 74 games in Week 1, with 38 of the games (51.4 percent) involving Division I-A teams playing I-AA opponents. It’s likely the highest number and percentage of such games in a week’s schedule since the NCAA adopted the divisional setup in 1978. It’s laughable, really. Spring scrimmages are more competitive.
Big numbers
Crummy matchups mean double-digit pointspreads. Of the 40 games listed on Covers.com , 25 had spreads of 10 or more points. Do you really feel good about Texas being a 40-point favorite over Louisiana Monroe? Besides, where’s the sport in that? That’s like fishing at a trout farm.
The hype factor
Every team is feeling good about its chances at the moment. Even fans of Western Kentucky, which is playing its first season in Div I-A, are giddy with optimism. Reality is about to hit them like a tsunami. Western Kentucky is a 31.5-point underdog at Tennessee.
Clarity of mind
It’s important to study and watch teams closely in the first week without rooting for or against a team. Check out strengths and weakness, style of play. Do they have a quarterback who can make plays? What about that idiot coach? Doesn’t he know how many timeouts are allowed in a half? Seriously, this tiny investment will pay big dividends later in the season.
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I won’t take it personally if you go against my advice. Despite what the surgeon general says, some people still smoke. Proceed at your own risk.
If you must dip your toe into the betting waters this early, here are some points to consider when picking a side:
Take a team with an experienced offensive line
Last season, eight of the Top 10 teams in the final Associated Press poll began the season with at least 65 combined career starts by their offensive linemen. Utah and Mississippi, two of the biggest surprises of 2008, had more than 80 starts of experience. Georgia, Missouri and Clemson, three Top-10 teams that disappointed, had fewer than 40 starts each, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Here are five teams to watch and their offensive line starts: Notre Dame (100), Virginia Tech (100), Texas (91), Florida State (86) and Michigan (75). Here are five teams to worry about: Oregon (20), West Virginia (25), Oklahoma (29), Penn State (39) and Alabama (50).
Oregon State is not a good team in September
Since Mike Riley returned as coach in 2003, the Beavers have gone 10-13 in the month. Overall, he’s 48-28. That’s right, nearly half of his losses have come in September. Go figure.
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I watch a lot of football. Too much.
You know that computer-generated yellow first down line you see on your screen?
After last season, I saw it everywhere. It was along the foreheads of my friends and family. I saw it in the eyes of my dog.
Given those qualifications, here are some general observations as teams prepare to charge out of the tunnel.
If a quarterback is not of legal drinking age, it’s generally not a good idea to let him start a road game
OK, we have no data to back this up, but after attending a USC practice last week, it was clear Aaron Corp had a better grasp of the offense than Matt Barkley. Two days later, Pete Carroll named Barkley the starter. San Jose State won’t present much of a challenge for the kid, but that monster Week 2 game at Ohio State will be problematic.
If UCLA’s offensive line can learn how to block, the Bruins will win six games
Slick Rick Neuheisel has some young talent, but don’t expect much in his second season as coach.
Rich Rodriguez needs to win this season
It’s clear that even though Michigan has yet to play a game, he has already lost the respect of several players. The Wolverines have eight home games, but if the players quit on Rich Rod, it won’t matter. He’ll be good as gone if Michigan loses at home to Western Michigan Saturday.
That nasty swine flu we wrote about last week is continuing to have an impact
Several Alabama players are slowed by flu-like symptoms and the Crimson Tide needs to be in tip-top shape for Saturday’s opener against Virginia Tech. Losing defensive end Brandon Deaderick, who was shot Monday night in Tuscaloosa, won’t help.
So, keep your impulsivity in check. Use the one-week rule. Take the new season to dinner and a movie first before blowing your bankroll.
NcaaF 9/2
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