What bettors need to know: Vikings at Texans
By DAVID CHAN - My handicapping process delivers profits season after season
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-3.5, 39)
Hogging the spotlight
As if Brett Favre hasn't received enough media attention already, he'll be front and center on Monday Night Football this week.
Favre made a cameo appearance for the Vikings last week, completing only one of four passes for four yards. That was really nothing more than a dog and pony show for the Vikings fans.
On Monday we should see a little more from Favre. He's expected to play the entire first half.
The Vikings haven't played since last Friday so Favre has had the better part of two weeks to learn the Vikings offensive playbook.
That's the same playbook that he's more than likely had a copy of on his coffee table all summer, but I digress.
This week we've heard reports indicating that the Vikings locker room is divided, with some supporting Tarvaris Jackson over No. 4.
Favre shrugged off those rumors.
"Once again, I will continue to work on that part of it. I think my experience can only go so far on the field, but I think it can pay huge dividends off the field and in the locker room and how to adjust. You know what? You've got to be yourself. I'm pretty content with my personality. I think it's able to fit in with just about everyone."
Talking defense
Even though their starting unit has seen limited action, the Vikings defense appears to be in mid-season form.
In its preseason opener against the Colts, Minnesota gave up only 142 total yards.
The Chiefs cracked the 300-yard plateau against the Vikings last week, but they were still held to only 13 points.
You have to go back to Aug. 8, 2008 to find the last time Minnesota gave up more than 16 points in a preseason game. The under is 4-1 in its last five exhibition matchups.
Looking for redemption
The Houston Texans were embarrassed in front of their home faithful last week, losing 38-14 to the New Orleans Saints.
Maybe they shouldn't hang their heads so low after the Saints follow-up performance left Oakland spinning.
Head coach Gary Kubiak wants his players to take these so-called 'meaningless' games seriously.
“They better all take on the same meaning,” Kubiak said. “They better all be just as important to each player every week.”
The good news is, the Texans haven't lost both preseason home games since going 0-4 in 2003, which was just their second year in the league.
Dynamic duo
The Texans' defense remains a work in progress, but their offense should look much sharper with Kubiak playing his starters into the second half on Monday.
As Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson go, so do the Texans.
Schaub is 18-of-23 for 167 yards and a touchdown so far this preseason. Johnson hasn't seen a great deal of action, catching only five passes for 53 yards.
Dan Orlovsky will play the entire fourth quarter with Rex Grossman recovering from a pulled hamstring.
Welcome back
The Vikings may have the motivational edge in the second half. Sage Rosenfels is not only battling Tarvaris Jackson for the backup QB role, but also making his return to Houston, where he spent the last three seasons.
Rosenfels was held out of last week's preseason game due to an injured ankle, but is expected to play in the second half on Monday.
He left Houston for Minnesota hoping to earn a starting job, but if the prospect of playing second or third fiddle to Favre is bothering him, he isn't letting it show.
“I'm working as hard as I can to get ready,” Rosenfels said. “If the team needs me, I want to be ready to play and to play high-caliber football. I'm going to keep working, keep my head up and be ready to go when they need me.”
Tarvaris Jackson did his best to seal up the backup spot in Rosenfels' absence, completing 12-of-15 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns in last week's win over the Chiefs.
By the numbers
The Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites but have since been bet up to -3.5 at most books.
The total has dropped a full two points since opening at 41.
Following Monday's Vikings/Texans matchup at Reliant Stadium, only one week remains in the NFL preseason prior to the regular season kicking off September 10 in Pittsburgh. You don't have to go very far to find a storyline for Monday's tilt in the Lone Star State, as Brett Favre makes his second start at quarterback for the Vikings.
Favre played only two series in last Friday's 17-13 home victory over the Chiefs. The ex-Packer and Jet threw just four passes, completing one for four yards. Favre is expected to play the entire first half against Houston, with Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels splitting time in the second half. Rosenfels makes his first appearance in Houston after spending last season with the Texans, starting five games in place of the injured Matt Schaub.
Jackson looked sharp against the Chiefs, finishing 12 of 15 for 202 yards and two touchdown strikes. Vikings' star running back Adrian Peterson carried the ball only ten times for a modest 44 yards.
Schaub and the Texans look to rebound after getting pounded by the Saints last week, 38-14. Houston put up just 70 yards rushing, while allowing New Orleans to rack up 173 yards on the ground. One game after forcing three turnovers in a 16-10 victory at Kansas City, the Texans committed three turnovers against New Orleans. This will Schaub's first meeting against Minnesota since the Texans' quarterback injured his knee versus the Vikings at the Metrodome last season, causing him to miss a month.
Vikings' wide receiver Bernard Berrian is 'questionable,' as the ex-Chicago Bear is nursing a hamstring injury. Berrian originally suffered the injury in Minnesota's preseason opener at Indianapolis. All-Pro defensive end Jared Allen, who missed the victory over his former team, Kansas City, with an ankle injury, will play Monday night.
Houston has been an excellent 'over' team in the preseason under head coach Gary Kubiak, eclipsing the 'over' in eight of the last ten and 10 of the past 14. The third game has also been profitable for the Texans, with Houston going 3-0 ATS the last three seasons in the "dress rehearsal" game.
The Vikings are listed as an underdog for the first time this preseason, after victories as favorites over the Colts and Chiefs. Minnesota is 7-4 ATS its last 11 preseason contests when receiving points.
Most books opened the Texans as 2 ˝-point favorites, but Houston is now favored by three and even 3 ˝ at several shops. The total opened at 40 ˝, but that number has dropped to 39 in most places.
The game kicks off at 8 P.M. Eastern, and will be televised on ESPN.
Bad Beats: Disaster awaits Raiders & Wolverines
By BEN BURNS - To be successful requires both hard work and passion
Sure was a nice showing from the Raiders against the Saints Saturday. Anyone out there man enough to admit they took Oakland +2.5?
If so, make sure that’s the last time you’re on the Raiders this year.
Exhibition or not, getting pounded 45-7 is ridiculous and really says something about the overall talent, coaching and character of this team.
“This is embarrassing to me,” new Raiders coach Tom Cable said.
You think?
“A lot of times, we were getting up to the ball, getting set, and they were still trying to get lined up,” said Saints quarterback Drew Brees.
This just in: The Saints like to run a little hurry-up offense … for about the last three seasons.
The Saints’ first-team offense was expected to play into the second half. Instead, Brees and company sat down early in the second quarter.
The Saints had 21 points and 225 yards on 29 plays in the first quarter.
"Really the plan was to give them 'x' number of snaps and what happened was that we got those snaps earlier than expected," Saints coach Sean Payton told reporters Sunday. "Our plan was to go a half, come out in the second half and we thought we would've been close to 30 snaps there, but we got to that number a little quicker.”
It was ugly from the start for the Raiders. JaMarcus Russell was sacked and fumbled on their third play. They turned the ball over three times total and committed 10 penalties.
After having the 31st-ranked run defense in the league last year, they look like they have gotten worse. The Raiders have surrendered 634 rushing yards in three preseason games, including 232 by the Saints.
You call pull out the “It’s preseason” card if you want, but that usually only applies if your problems are something fixable on the field.
Things aren’t any better off the field for Al Davis’ flailing franchise. Reports have Cable getting in a fight and breaking a bone in the face of assistant coach Randy Hanson in early August. That kind of thing divides locker rooms and raises some serious concerns about the team’s leadership and direction.
The Raiders’ season total on wins is 5.5. Hmmm …
Speaking of teams headed for disaster …
Reports surfaced over the weekend that several Michigan football players claim coach Rich Rodriguez is violating NCAA rules that limit the amount of time a team can train and practice.
ESPN.com reported that a player that started for Michigan last season said the team would be at the football facility from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. on Sundays.
Four hours is the daily limit, with a weekly total of 20 hours, the NCAA allows teams to prepare.
Rodriguez and Wolverine officials are denying the accusations, but the damage has been done.
Michigan opened as 13-point home favorite in its season opener against Western Michigan.
The line was down to 12 and 11.5 at some books, as of Sunday.
The NFL's most competitive division will be up in the air once again in 2009. The Giants claimed the NFC East crown in 2008, but made a quick exit in the playoffs, falling at home to the Eagles. Philadelphia was coming apart at the seams after a 5-5-1 start last season, but Donovan McNabb reignited his Eagles squad, propelling them to the NFC Championship game.
The two teams that were left out of the postseason each finished the 2008 campaign on disappointing notes. The Cowboys won eight of their first 12 games, but dropped three of their final four to miss the playoffs. The Redskins were 6-2 through the first two months of the season, before losing six of their final eight contests.
Here are the season win totals for the NFC East, according to Sportsbook
NY Giants Over 9 ˝ (-150) Under 9 ˝ (+120)
Philadelphia Over 9 ˝ (-160) Under 9 ˝ (+130)
Dallas Over 9 (-130) Under 9 (Even)
Washington Over 8 (-120) Under 8 (Even)
The panel of experts has plenty of differing opinions on the NFC East, as all four teams have the potential to make the postseason, while it's likely that Washington is the one team that probably won't win this division.
Chris David is high on the Redskins' chances to finish 'over' the posted win total this season. David says despite Jim Zorn's offense averaging 16 ppg last season, Washington has a chance to pick it up this season, "If the offense improves in Zorn's second year, most would expect a jump in the win column. Four of the losses last year were by four points or less and people forget that Washington started 4-1 in 2008." David also points to Washington's advantageous schedule, "This year's opening schedule sets up nicely again with four of the first six at FedEx Field. The additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo should only make the Redskins' defense better in 2009."
Brian Edwards sees the Eagles as the best 'over' play in the NFC East. Edwards comments, "I really love this play although the 'chalky' price certainly makes it less attractive. Nevertheless, it's a winner. I have Philadelphia winning the NFC. The offense is loaded with speed and McNabb has the most weapons during his time with the Eagles, which, by the way, includes a 5-for-10 batting average in making the NFL's version of the Final Four."
I am in agreement with Edwards on the Eagles, not only on the McNabb point, but also on the addition of Michael Vick. Granted, Vick is out the first four games of the season, but the Eagles should be at least 3-1 when Vick joins the club. The Eagles had a multitude of problems the first three months of last season, but got on a great hot streak which almost sent Philadelphia to the Super Bowl.
Judd Hall is high on the team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, the New York Giants. Despite the loss of top receiver Plaxico Burress, Hall believes the Giants should still thrive offensively. Hall says, "New York has a pair of more than capable wideouts in Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon for Eli Manning to target. That's not even including Brandon Jacobs taking over the rushing duties full-time this season, which will wear down opposing defenses. Hall points to a somewhat rough schedule for the Giants, "The league didn't do them any favors as the G-men play back-to-back home games just twice this season. This team should be able to win at least six of its eight home games and no fewer than four on the road. This should be an easy 'over' for us."
David disagrees with Edwards and I on the Eagles, as David is steadfast on the 'under.' "The Eagles have been catching a lot of buzz this summer as a team to watch, but for the wrong reasons in my opinion. Philadelphia has some serious offensive talent on paper and if Vick can stay healthy, the attack can be dangerous. The defensive unit lost arguably their best player safety Brian Dawkins to free agency and more importantly, their defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer," David notes. "Andy Reid is a great coach but he's only put up one 10-win season in the last four years. I don't see happening again this year either," David points out.
Both Edwards and Hall don't see the Redskins making noise inside the division this season. Hall says, "Washington made a great move in getting Haynesworth for its defense. But what did they do to help out on offense? Not a whole hell of a lot." Edwards questions the offense in D.C., "Coaching and QB play are big factors for me and I'm not a big believer in Zorn. To a lesser extent, I'm not that high on Jason Campbell, although I'll stop short of completely throwing him under the bus. Clinton Portis isn't getting any younger and this division is brutal.
I selected the Giants as my best 'under' bet, simply because this team was clicking so well until the Burress incident last season, and then failed to regain that offensive mojo. Throwing in the loss of Derrick Ward to Tampa Bay, it's hard for me to see Manning and the Giants winning more than nine games.
Cowboys fans, we didn't forget about you. But, Vegas probably landed right on the correct number of wins for Tony Romo's club. It will be interesting to see if Terrell Owens will truly be missed, or if Roy Williams can step up and become an elite receiver in Dallas. And to see how many punts will be knocked off the scoreboard at new Cowboys Stadium.
NFL Top 5: Football's toughest schedules
By JOSH NAGEL
Handicapping the NFL strength of schedule is a time-tested tool used by professional bettors when wagering on teams’ win totals and weekly games.
“Sure, a team’s schedule in the NFL can be a factor,” said handicapper Blake Stevens of Henderson, Nev. “I look to fade teams on the end of a back-to-back stretch against string opponents, particularly if they played well in the first game.
“I also look for spots against mediocre opponents the following week. A lot of teams can get up for the big game, then lose a little focus against an inferior opponent.”
Strength of schedule tends to be somewhat misleading because the rankings are solely based on last year’s records. But it tends to even out because some teams that were strong last year but have down seasons will be off-set by others that will break through.
Here is a quick look at the Top 5 toughest NFL schedules for the upcoming season and some of the key games highlighting the calendar.
Miami Dolphins
(Win total: 7, Super Bowl odds: +5000)
It appears the Bill Parcells-orchestrated turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 is going to be difficult to build on for coach Tony Sparano’s club. This season, simply clipping the over for their posted win total of seven might be considered a success. In short, Miami’s schedule starts brutal and stays that way.
The Dolphins open with road games at the Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers, sandwiched around a visit from the Indianapolis Colts. If they manage to stay in contention until season’s end, they have a road trip at the Tennessee Titans Dec. 20 to look forward to and the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers visit Miami in the season finale Jan. 3.
Carolina Panthers
(Win total: 8.5, Super Bowl odds: +1700)
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Panthers would be out for redemption after their blowout home loss to the Arizona Cardinals abruptly ended last year’s campaign. In order to do so, Carolina is going to have to earn it the hard way.
Beset by some question marks on defense and an aging and erratic quarterback in Jake Delhomme, the Panthers have tough opponents sprinkled throughout their schedule. They host the Philadelphia Eagles Sept. 15, followed by back-to-back road trips to the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys.
Carolina wraps up the season with a road trip to face the New York Giants Dec. 27 and their playoff hopes could be on the line when the New Orleans Saints pay them a visit Jan.
New England Patriots
(Win total: 11.5, Super Bowl odds: +400)
The return of quarterback Tom Brady bolsters the Patriots to the Super Bowl favorite at +400. But they will need to play at a championship caliber to eclipse the 11.5 season win total posted by oddsmakers.
The good news for New England backers is that the club benefits from having most of its formidable opponents coming to Gillette Stadium. The Patriots host the Atlanta Falcons Sept. 27 and the Baltimore Ravens Oct. 4. And down the stretch they host the Carolina Panthers Dec. 13 and Jacksonville Jaguars Dec. 27. A trip to conference rival Indianapolis looms Nov. 15.
Atlanta Falcons
(Win total: 8.5, Super Bowl odds: +1700)
The rookie coach-quarterback combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan worked for the Falcons last season. They will be hard-pressed to avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.
Atlanta will greet Miami Sept. 13 and Carolina Sept. 20 before embarking on a wicked road stretch. The Falcons visit New England Sept. 27 and face Carolina and the New York Giants on back-to-back road trips in November.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Win total: 6.5, Super Bowl odds: +4800)
First-year coach Raheem Morris takes over a team that is in rebuilding mode after former coach Jon Gruden was fired and much of the roster was re-shaped. Getting Tampa Bay backers the cash with seven wins might be asking a lot of the rookie coach.
Tampa Bay’s schedule is littered with strong opponents and includes road trips to Philadelphia, Carolina and New Orleans. Home games against the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots also are on the ledger.
Nfl 8/31
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