Last year the ACC Atlantic was as congested as Boston rush hour with all six teams finishing with a game of each other. Boston College ended up in the ACC Championship where it lost to Virginia Tech and eventually lost its first bowl game in nine years. The Eagles may take a fall this season but it looks as though it might be another tight race as any one of five teams has a shot at the division as there is no clear runaway winner. Florida St. is the only team ranked on the AP Preseason poll and surprisingly, Wake forest received no votes which I think is absurd.
Florida State Seminoles 9-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U
Summary: Florida St.’s return to glory seems to be getting closer. The Seminoles finished with nine wins last season for the first time since 2004 and that included a very solid bowl win over Wisconsin by 29 points. They home to carry that over into this season and it had better work as they will be playing a brutal schedule this season. The offense brings back eight starters including junior quarterback Christian Ponder who was very average last season. The offensive line is back as well as a stout running game so that should help him settle in. The defense regained its toughness last season but only five starters are back this season. In his last season before retirement, defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will get the most out of his unit.
Schedule: The schedule will determine how far along Florida St. really is in its comeback attempt. Every opponent it faces in the ACC went to a bowl game last season and three of its four non-conference opponents also made it to the postseason. The Seminoles have to play three Atlantic road games and none are easy. They also have to travel to BYU and Florida so the entire slate is extremely tough.
Bottom Line: It looks as though every other team in the Atlantic Division is taking a small step back so the Seminoles get the top spot by default. I think they deserve it anyway as talent-wise, no one is in the same class. It all depends on how focused they are because that has been an issue in the past, as have the off-the-field incidents that have taken place. With this schedule, matching the nine wins from 2008 will be tough.
Betting Forecast: Florida St. was above .500 against the number for the first time since 2003. The Seminoles are a very public team so that winning likely won’t continue.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 8-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Summary: Head coach Jim Grobe has done an amazing job in turning around the Wake Forest football program. He inherited a 2-9 team in 2001 and put together a winning season in his first year at the helm and over the last three years, the Deacons have won a combined 28 games. This season will be a challenging one as the defense does not look as strong as it has been in the past as only four starters are back on the unit. Offensively, Wake Forest finished 101st in the nation last season but nine starters are back including four-year starting quarterback Riley Skinner so it should improve immensely. The Deacons are getting no respect once again as they received no votes in the AP Preseason poll which is amazing to me. They have a shot at another Atlantic Division title.
Although the Florida Gators are the clear-cut favorites to repeat in 2009, they might be jinxed already. They might have taken the kiss of death at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas before any of the games even begin.
Why, you ask? Well, because every member of our panel for the college football forecast at the 2009 VegasInsider.com Handicapping Seminar predicted UF to win its third national title in four seasons.
Bruce Marshall, Jason Johnson, Sid Rosenberg, Marc Lawrence, James Manos, Paul Prestridge (of Bullseye Sports) and I each took the Gators to prevail in Pasadena. However, who would fall to UF varied among the panelists.
Marshall liked Penn St. to make the BCS Championship Game because of a “soft non-conference schedule and playing Ohio St. at home,” but he didn’t feel the Nittany Lions would be deserving of that invitation. On that note, Marshall called for the Gators to thump PSU by a 48-6 count.
James Manos went with Va. Tech to run the table in a “balanced” ACC, although he clarified that his Hokies’ prediction tends to mirror the Bills-49ers Super Bowl forecast Chris Berman has seemingly been calling for since ESPN’s inception.
Marc Lawrence likes one of two sleeper teams, either Oklahoma St. or Ga. Tech, to make it to the BCS Championship Game. He went with Florida but with a little more reservation than most.
Lawrence said, “It’s hard not to like Florida with all of its returning starters, but I’ll say this: They have never gone undefeated in school history. If there’s a game they’ll lose, it would perhaps be at LSU.”
Prestridge is real high on Texas to win the Big 12 and thinks the Longhorns can “give Florida a great game.” Nevertheless, he stuck with UF to win it all. Like Prestridge, Johnson and I have the Gators beating the ‘Horns.
Lawrence thinks the Big Ten is going to be “up” and “wide open” this year with Ohio St. and Penn St. at the top. Like Marshall, Lawrence noted PSU’s edge in terms of its soft non-conference schedule compared to the Buckeyes hosting USC in Week 2.
Lawrence said this about the Bucks, “Jim Tressel is going to open up the offense finally and all I can say is thank God. Tressel is conservative as the vest he wears, but he is going to the ‘Pistol’ offense like Nevada’s this year. Just like Colin Kaepernick for Nevada, Tressel is going to keep the ball in Terrelle Pryor’s hands and let him make plays. If that offense jells early, watch out for Ohio St.”
Lawrence liked Illinois as a sleeper, but called for Minnesota to go “backwards as it switches to a pass-oriented offense.” On an earlier panel, Tim Trushel of the SportsMemo was also bullish on Illinois and liked Auburn’s win total to go ‘over’ seven. Trushel defended the hiring of Gene Chizik, who he lauded for coaching “unbeaten defenses as defensive coordinator at Texas and at Auburn in ’04.”
Rotunda disagreed with Trushel on Auburn. "I just don't see it with Auburn," Rotunda said. "I like that team 'under' and don't like the Chizik hire. They don't have a quarterback, either, going with the kid from last year (Chris Todd) whose not a good passer."
My opinion on Auburn falls between Trushel's and Rotunda's. I see this team going 7-5 thanks to an excellent defense and the Tigers will hook up their bitter rivals by knocking off Ole Miss in an upset that paves the way for the Tide to get to Atlanta.
Manos, who is based out of Reno and is a WAC expert, called the league the “Boise State Conference the last few years.” Manos said, “The conference as a whole is soft and has a weak underbelly. Fresno St. has gone soft under Pat Hill in recent years. If there’s a team that can challenge Boise this year, it could be La. Tech because it catches the Broncos in a difficult travel spot.”
Manos continued, “The travel in the WAC is brutal, covering the distance from Hawaii all the way to Ruston, LA. When Boise goes to La. Tech this year, it’ll be a third road game in four weeks with the Broncos playing at Hawaii two weeks before. They better come to play in Ruston because the Bulldogs can give them trouble at home.”
Manos was concerned that Nevada’s Pistol offense might hit a speed bump in 2009. “Chris Ault has been speaking at a lot of coaching seminars and handing out some portions of his playbooks to other coaches. And I think defensive coaches are going to be ready to make adjustments now that they’ve had a lot of time to watch film on this offensive approach.”
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The big college football news on Thursday was USC naming true freshman Matt Barkley as its starting QB. Earlier this week, Tennessee got good news when freshman RB Bryce Brown was ruled to be eligible after his status appeared unclear for a week. Brown and Barkley are considered by most to be the best freshmen in the nation. Now let's clean out the notebook with other thoughts and comments from handicappers at the seminar...
--Lawrence on Northwestern: “I like Pat Fitzgerald as a coach but Northwestern could be in some trouble this year. This program lost 23 seniors from a nine-win team and those kind of losses can sometimes leave a team with a cupboard-is-bare complex.”
--Marshall thinks Washington is going to be better than expected, noting that "that team doesn't go winless if Jake Locker doesn't get hurt. After that, things just went stale for Ty (Willingham) and I think (Steve) Sarkisian is going to be a little bit of an upgrade." Marshall also thinks Oregon St. is once again underrated. He also feels UCLA is overvalued in Week 1 against San Diego St. and he has "big concerns about Rick Neuheisel."
--Marshall on Dennis Erickson at Arizona St.: "I'm not sure if he has the fire anymore." On Oregon and Cal: "I'm not as high on these teams to challenge USC this year. Like Steve Spurrier at South Carolina, Jeff Tedford has had QB problems the last few years."
--Rotunda liked USF and WVU’s win totals to go ‘over’ in his Big East comments. He thinks Jarrett Brown is a “beast” and will be a more-than-adequate replacement for Pat White at QB.
--Manos raved about the hire of Brady Hoke at San Diego St. He liked the coaching staff assembled by Hoke and thinks the Aztecs are in a good spot at home when they host BYU on Oct. 17. The Cougars will be in a look-ahead situation with TCU on deck with the conference title possibly on the line. They also will be playing a second road game in as many weeks. "BYU as a road favorite with TCU up next is a brutal spot," Manos said. "And San Diego St. has an open date the previous week, so we should get some line value with the Aztecs."
--I called for Troy to beat Arkansas outright and predicted Steve Kragthorpe to taste a pink slip after Louisville loses to Cincinnati to fall to 2-5. After the Cardinals went 41-9 under Bobby Petrino, they are an abysmal 11-13 under Kragthorpe. When U of L loses to the Bearcats, Kragthorpe will be canned and eventually replaced by Phillip Fulmer.
Sun Belt conference preview: Mastering the unknown
By BEN BURNS - To be successful requires both hard work and passion
Finding solid, updated information on Sun Belt football is not easy, for bettors or oddsmakers.
So spending time to dig deeper on these lesser-known squads can pay dividends.
"The way to win early in the year is to get a better handle on a team than the average guy on the street," Francis Doyle, betting analyst for Sportsinteraction.com said.
Below are some basic, fundamental information about the Sun Belt. If you can, try to catch an early game on TV, involving the Sun Belt. The more you can find out early on these teams the better you'll be later in the season.
(Records from last three seasons)
Troy Trojans
ATS: 22-13 (Home: 7-6. Away: 14-6)
Thing to remember: The Trojans are almost always the most-talented team in the Sun Belt. Osi Umenyora, DeMarcus Ware, Leodis McKelvin are some of the recent high NFL draft picks to come out of Troy.
That's not the case at any other team in the Sun Belt, where first-round draft picks are wishful thinking.
If Troy plays its "A" game, conference competition generally can't keep up. The Trojans are 14-7 ATS in conference play the last three seasons. Remember this is a team that had LSU down 31-3 in the third quarter last year. It's also the team that blew the lead and ended up losing 40-31. You decide which one is more impressive.
Coach Larry Blakeney's team returns only 12 starters this season, but Troy is still the favorite in the Sun Belt.
Bonus note: Remember the name Sidell Corley. He's a big-time defensive line prospect that transferred in from LSU after a pair of family tragedies. His mother was shot and killed in her home in May. A week later, his uncle drowned.
Troy is hoping the NCAA will grant him instant eligibility. Under the circumstances, here's hoping he's allowed to play.
Florida Atlantic Owls
ATS: 20-16-1 (Home: 7-4. Away: 6-7-1)
Thing to remember: The Owls possess the best quarterback in the league in NFL prospect Rusty Smith. But they also have a suspect defense that returns just three starters.
The Owls are 21.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Nebraska. They failed to cover big numbers six of their last seven games against BCS competition.
Arkansas State Wolves
ATS: 19-27 (Home: 6-9. Away: 8-12)
Thing to remember: If FAU's Smith is the best Sun Belt QB, ASU's senior Corey Leonard is a close second.
All-Conference running back Reggie Arnold and the top two receivers from last year return with Leonard on what should be a pretty explosive offense.
The Wolves follow FAU up to Nebraska to take on the Huskers in Week 2.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
ATS: 16-17 (Home: 6-6. Away: 11-10)
Thing to remember: The Blue Raiders return 10 offensive starters, including their entire offensive line. That will help when they travel to Clemson as 19-point underdogs to open the season.
MSTU has stood up nicely to BCS competition the last two seasons. They've covered their last five games against the big boys and upset Maryland last year.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
ATS: 21-12 (Home: 6-6. Away: 15-6)
Thing to remember: The Warhawks have new offensive and defensive coordinators. Both have brought in new schemes. ULM is also breaking in a new quarterback in junior Trey Revell.
But, with 17 returning starters, head coach Charlie Weatherbie seems confident.
"I believe this football team has as good of an opportunity as we've had to compete for a Sun Belt Conference championship," Weatherbie told the Monroe News Star.
ULM has a chance to be a very good defensive team, with all-conference players at defensive line, linebacker and at both safety positions.
"This team has 18 seniors on it -- 10 returning starters on defense, eight on offense and our kicker and punter are both back."
ULM is a 40.5-point underdog at Texas to start the season. Yikes.
Florida International Panthers
ATS: 17-19 (Home: 7-7. Away: 9-10)
FIU could be the surprise of the conference. Senior quarterback Paul McCall is back for his second season as starter. He's got electric wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and a senior-laden offensive line that returns completely intact.
Take a look at the Golden Panthers in Week 2 at Rutgers, especially if they get clobbered pretty bad at Alabama to open the year.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
ATS: 17-17 (Home: 7-8. Away: 10-9)
Thing to remember: The Ragin' Cajuns lost both superstars off of last year's explosive offense, but do return an offensive line with three all-conference candidates.
Head coach Rickey Bustle's scheme has averaged more than 250 yards rushing the past two seasons.
North Texas Mean Green
ATS: 12-23 (Home: 5-9. Away: 7-14)
Thing to remember: Head coach Todd Dodge had a prolific high school coaching career, but it has not translated over to success at North Texas.
Sixteen starters return to help Dodge try to get things turned around, but there are still major questions marks about this program's overall talent.
The coach's son, redshirt freshman Riley Dodge takes over at quarterback and will have leading rusher Cam Montgomery and an experienced offensive line to assist.
UNT has the potential for its best season under Dodge, but tread carefully.
The Mean Green is getting 17.5 points at Ball State to open the season.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
ATS: 3-7 (Home 0-4. Away: 3-3)
Thing to remember: Entering their second season in D-I (FBS), the Hilltoppers are still a work in progress.
Here are a couple ATS numbers for other young programs entering their second year in an FBS conference:
Ncaaf 8/31
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