Baseball bettors should be cautious of Wild Card race
By JON KUIPERIJ
If you’re thinking of backing teams in the Wild Card hunt during the final month of the season, you should think again.
Sure, those teams need wins more than squads that have comfortable division leads or clubs that are out of playoff contention.
But there are a few reasons to avoid - or even bet against - some of the Wild Card hopefuls down the stretch.
They're often overpriced as oddsmakers prey on one of the betting public's natural tendencies.
"People generally back the team that is supposed to win, thinking that they should win since they have incentive," says oddsmaker Michael Perry.
This is particularly true when Wild Card contenders are home favorites.
"We count on those matches being heavily one-sided," says sportsbook manager Randy Scott.
If these teams were good enough to win when they had to, they wouldn't need the September victories so badly in the first place.
"Teams fighting for the Wild Card do not necessarily perform any better than their overall numbers would indicate, largely because they're not great teams to begin with," says David Malinsky. "Outside of the American League East, teams fighting for the Wild Card from other divisions most seasons are just a bit above average."
The pressure of the playoff race often has a negative effect on Wild Card contenders, particularly younger squads.
"Nerves can be a little brittle as we get this deep into the schedule," Malinsky says. "In a sport in which so much is determined above the bill of the cap, the ability to stay focused and not try to do too much comes into play."
Last season, the four top teams in the American League Wild Card chase and top three squads in the National League hunt went a combined 94-86 in the final month. Even the eventual Wild Card winners stumbled to the finish line. The Milwaukee Brewers were 10-16 in September, while the Chicago White Sox went 12-15.
And who can forget the Mets' collapse in 2007, when New York lost six of its final seven games to finish one game behind NL Wild Card winner Colorado. The lowest moneyline on the Mets in those seven games was -207 on the final day, when they lost 8-1 to the Florida Marlins.
Of course, not all teams wilt in the heat of the Wild Card pressure. The Rockies won 14 of their last 15 games to overtake New York in that 2007 race.
"I do pay attention to streaks in September. There always seems to be a team that chokes or gets extremely hot," Steve Merril says. "I don't like to buck these trends late in the year."
Often, teams that seemed in control of a playoff spot in August will struggle in September, while squads that appeared out of contention at the All-Star Break can come out of nowhere.
The Detroit Tigers led the AL Central by 10 games in early August of 2006, but went 19-31 in their final 50 games to barely win the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros played themselves back into the NL Wild Card race in the last two months of 2008, going 36-18 during that stretch.
The ability to handle the burden of expectation comes with experience, which is why Malinsky and Merril both like the Boston Red Sox to edge out the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays for this year's AL Wild Card.
The handicappers have different views on the NL race, however.
Malinsky feels the Atlanta Braves have underachieved to this point and are poised to make a run, while Merril believes the Rockies' red-hot play under manager Jim Tracy will continue down the stretch.
The wild card among the Wild Cards, Merril adds, could be the San Francisco Giants. All-Star pitchers Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain could start three of five playoff games in the Wild Card round and possibly five of seven contests in the NLCS and World Series.
"They probably won't make the playoffs, but if they do they would have an excellent chance of winning the whole thing," says Merril.
Cliff Lee has posted simply incredible numbers since joining the Phillies, picking up his fifth win in five starts on Monday and featuring an ERA of 0.68. Much like CC Sabathia did last season there has been talk of Lee being considered for the Cy Young award despite splitting time in both leagues. Sabathia had a much larger sample in the NL last season and he did finish fifth in the voting, but Lee even has acknowledged it would be ridiculous to consider him over pitchers that have posted impressive numbers all season long in the league. The conversation about Lee would be made moot much more easily if a pitcher had stepped out to deliver a truly remarkable Cy Young season, but in both leagues the voting will lack a clear-cut standout choice unless something special happens in the final weeks.
In the National League, Tim Lincecum remains the favorite to win the award this season, which would make for impressive back-to-back wins for the 25-year old. Lincecum has certainly had a fine season as he leads baseball in strikeouts and owns the third best ERA in the NL at 2.43. Stat-gurus rightfully disvalue the win as a key measure of a pitcher but in reality the voters will not, so Lincecum with just 12 wins may get passed up as he has not won in any of his past four outings and the Giants appear to be fading. Adding to the dilemma for voters is that Lincecum’s teammate Matt Cain currently has an identical 12-4 record and also a 2.43 ERA. Lincecum greatly overshadows Cain in strikeouts but Cain has had a remarkable season as well but he may also lack the number of wins to seriously contend for the award.
The emerging candidate in the race has to come from St. Louis, as the Cardinals continue to pull away in the NL Central. Voters would also have a bit of dilemma as well as two Cardinals pitchers are deserving of mention. Chris Carpenter, a past Cy Young winner would have to be the leader with a 14-3 record and a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Carpenter has made just 21 starts however and his counting statistics like strikeouts will not measure favorably with many of the other contenders. Adam Wainwright has also delivered a fantastic season for the Cardinals and in the past six weeks he has pitched as well as anyone in baseball, perhaps outside of Lee. Wainwright also has 14 wins but his seven losses will make it tough for him to compete with Carpenter though he has made five more starts and also features a strong 2.61 ERA and 41 more strikeouts. There will likely be little mention for him as a candidate but St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin deserves some notice as the most dominant reliever in the NL, featuring a 1.11 ERA and going 30 for 32 in save opportunities.
Dan Haren owns a great 2.74 ERA and impressive strikeout-to-walk numbers, but playing for a struggling Arizona team leave him with a 12-8 record and likely out of contention barring an incredible finish. Dodger pitchers Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw were relevant in this race for much of the first half of the season, but like their team, both have faded in recent weeks. Wandy Rodriguez also has enjoyed a great season and is competitive with all the contenders in the key categories, but playing for a Houston team out of playoff race will count him out. Other than Franklin, the other relievers in contention lack the eye-popping numbers that would be needed for a relief pitcher to jump into the mix.
The pitchers with chance to make a move into contention for this award will likely hinge on the playoff push of their respective teams. Florida ace Josh Johnson owns a 12-3 record with a 2.99 ERA and if he pitches brilliantly down the stretch and can lead the Marlins into a wild card spot or at least commendably close playing for the low-payroll Marlins he should warrant serious consideration. The Colorado Rockies are a team with serious momentum right now and if the Rockies make the playoffs and particularly if they unseat Los Angeles in the AL West, starters Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez could both move into that picture. Both would sit a solid step back in terms of raw numbers at this point in the year and likely would have trouble surpassing some of the more established pitchers. An extreme dark horse candidate would be Javier Vazquez of the Braves who has the requisite strikeouts and a great ERA but has just ten wins and would need the Braves to make a serious September push.
In the American League, the challenge for voters will be even more difficult. At the All-Star Break, two candidates stood out, Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay. Neither likely has the credentials to contend for the award at this point as both have struggled in the second half. Greinke still leads the AL in ERA at 2.44 but he is now 11-8 after starting 8-1 and the Royals have fallen back to the familiar depths of the AL Central despite a promising start and the chances of Greinke improving his numbers are bleak. After constant trade rumors failed to materialize, Halladay has failed to live up to the great results that created his high demand and too-steep price tag. Halladay still owns strong numbers but not likely good enough to win the votes especially on what will be a losing team in Toronto.
Voters will be left to choose from the pitchers that will likely lead the league in wins playing on playoff teams, but featuring less than elite ERAs or choosing a pitcher on a decent team that has slightly better overall numbers. CC Sabathia leads baseball with 15 wins despite most considering it to be somewhat of a disappointing year relative to his last two seasons. Sabathia’s ERA is currently 3.59 which would be considered high for Cy Young consideration but he conceivably could lead the lead by several wins for the team with the best record in baseball. Josh Beckett will be in a similar situation and a couple of clutch performances that leads Boston into the playoffs could build some traction for his campaign but his 3.65 ERA is also a shade too high. Sabathia edged out Beckett for the award in 2007, despite Beckett getting the last laugh in the playoffs and the storyline between the two pitchers could continue with this vote and the potential playoff results.
Detroit has two starters that should be in the mix should the Tigers hold on to the AL Central lead. Neither has truly standout numbers, but Edwin Jackson is third in the AL for ERA and has been a reliable starter for Detroit even though he has just ten wins. Justin Verlander likely has a greater chance of getting votes as a more established name, plus 14 wins and the AL lead in strikeouts. Verlander has been hit hard in several games however and owns a much higher ERA than Jackson and several other AL starters.
The long shot candidates lack the past success and familiarity that Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay, and Verlander would benefit from. Felix Hernandez has the numbers in every key category to warrant attention, but he will have a hard time keeping up in wins and he will be hurt by the lack of visibility playing in Seattle. Scott Feldman and Jeff Niemann have great records pitching for playoff contenders, but neither comes close to an elite level in strikeouts nor ERA. Mark Buehrle has the perfect game stamp on his resume, but he likely will not get enough wins either and his overall numbers are not in the same league as some of the other candidates.
Francisco Rodriguez was able to steal some votes last year with his spectacular season for an Angel team with a great record, but even an all-time single season saves record was not enough to win the award. It would be tough for Rodriguez and Angel fans to swallow but the New York media could make a push for Mariano Rivera that would have a decent chance of success in a year with no standout candidate. Rivera is having a season similar to many of his other great years but playing for a first place team after years of success could garner some career achievement votes for this year’s Cy Young award. Rivera’s 1-2 record does not look Cy worthy, but his ERA is 1.87 and he has converted 36 of 37 saves while posting a 6.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
If you take a look at the overall pitching and bullpen numbers for the Indians this year, it might leave you scratching your head as to why I have the Tribe in this position. However, the fact is, this pitching staff, in particular the bullpen, has gotten much better as of late. The relievers are pitching better than they have all year long which directly correlates to Cleveland’s 20-15 mark since the All Star Break.
For the season, the Indian bullpen has an ERA of 4.82 which is the fourth worst in all of baseball. However, their .255 opponent batting average and 1.8 strikeout to walk ratio indicates they have pitched better than that lofty ERA might indicate. Over the last 10 games, this relief corps has an ERA of just 2.95. The pitching staff as a whole has allowed five or fewer runs in 14 of their last 17 games which is an improvement for a staff that has an ERA of over 5.00 on the season.
Many of the Cleveland relievers have been improving their stock as of late. Here are a few. Closer Kerry Wood has registered a save in seven of his last eight attempts. His ERA since the All Star break is 3.38 which is a drastic improvement over the first half of the season. Chris Perez, who was acquired in the Mark DeRosa deal, gave up six runs in his first three outings. However, since then he has gone 16 straight scoreless innings and dropped his ERA under 3.00. Joe Smith has an ERA of just 3.34 on the year, however since the All Star break that number is just 1.42. Finally, left handed specialist Tony Sipp has allowed only one earned run in 11 August appearances.
Improved starting pitching has also helped the bullpen numbers improve. This team lost Cliff Lee to the Phillies, however Fausto Carmon had pitched very well since returning from the minors in late July. Justin Masterson was acquired from Boston in the Victor Martinez deal and he has shown promise. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers have been fairly solid starters.
This team can score runs. Their 631 runs place them 7th in the league. They also hit nearly .270 as a team. With the pitching improving lately, especially the bullpen, this team can be a spoiler in the A.L. Central race.
Struggling – San Francisco Giants
In direct contrast to the Indians, the Giants have some of the best bullpen numbers on the season. However, as of late, they have not pitched up to those impressive seasonal numbers. That is partly attributed to AT&T Park which surrenders the second lowest OPS of any ballpark and just 7.85 runs per game.
On Saturday, the Giants bullpen blew a huge game with Colorado allowing eight runs in just three innings of work. Things didn’t get any better for the relievers on Monday as they allowed four runs in the 14th inning, blowing a three run lead and losing to the Rockies. That was the Giants fourth loss for the bullpen in San Francisco’s last nine games. All of those losses have been on the road which lends to the ballpark theory. Monday’s bullpen effort, five earned runs in 7.1 innings, pushed their ERA to near 4.50 over the last 11 games.
Due to poor offensive numbers, this team has been carried for much of the season by their starting pitching and bullpen. Now it looks as if the starters might be beginning to fade which will continue to negatively affect the bullpen. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been Cy Young contenders all season long. However, Lincecum has now not won a start since August 1st and Cain in winless in his last five outings. With Zito, Sanchez and Martinez being up and down, the strain on the bullpen looks like it will continue.
Closer Brian Wilson has 30 saves on the year, however he has blown two of his last five attempts. Veteran Bobby Howry now has a 1-6 record out of the pen after losing another game last week. Even Justin Miller, who has put up fantastic numbers for much of the year is slowing down. On Saturday he allowed four runs while getting only two outs. Monday was worse for Wilson when he gave up three earned runs and failed to retire a batter.
San Fran has a very tough schedule down the stretch. They still face the Dodgers and Rockies six more times. They face off against the Cubs four times and the Brewers and Phillies three more times each. The bullpen will have immense pressure applied down the stretch and I’m not so sure they have the depth or talent to hold up. Especially of the starters continue to struggle.
Mlb 8/30
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