Sunday Night Football: Bears at Broncos
By NICK PARSONS
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 38.5)
Drama, Drama, Drama
It looks like NBC will get a head start on the Sunday night prime time ratings race and as far as preseason games go. They couldn't have scripted it any better.
Former Broncos QB Jay Cutler returns to Denver, after an over-dramatic clash with first-year coach Josh McDaniels which led to a trade with Chicago for Kyle Orton in the offseason.
Add to that the drama surrounding disgruntled WR Brandon Marshall, who was recently suspended by McDaniels for conduct detrimental to the team, and you have the makings of an exciting Sunday night.
Marshall can be seen on tape acting like a four-year-old child at a recent practice, refusing to run in drills and swatting down balls tossed to him during a passing drill. The Broncos are still trying to work out the quirks of a complicated offensive system – with or without their No. 1 WR.
If this is how the season is starting out, then ABC better come up with a better drama than "Defying Gravity".
Cutler vs. Orton
While it’s quite a stretch to use a preseason game to judge a trade, both coaches plan to play their starters well into the third quarter. Week 3 serves as a preview for starters. Most of them will get little playing time in Week 4.
This gives the fans at Invesco Field ample opportunity to boo their former QB or get on the case of their new one.
Kyle Orton struggled to learn the new offense, throwing three interception in his first game against the 49ers. There was a bit of improvement in last week's loss against Seattle. Orton took more snaps and went 18-for-26 for 182 yards and 1 TD.
McDaniels will give Orton more playing time than usual Sunday. He is still adjusting to the new scheme but claims he's made steady improvement. Back up QB Chris Simms challenged for the starting role with two decent performances but is out with an injury, leaving only rookie QB Tom Brandstater and newly-signed Ingle Martin on the bench.
Cutler meanwhile claims that the game is no big deal stating that, "“It doesn’t count for anything. We just want to go out there and play well and execute our offense."
But after having thrown for 4,526 yards last year and then having rookie coach McDaniels come into the picture and go after Matt Cassel, one would be hard pressed to not think that the pro bowler would want to prove a point. Especially when it "doesn't count".
Cutler has been impressive in the preseason going 8-for-13 for 121 yards and 1 TD in his last game against the Giants. He'll be backed up by Caleb Haine who has gone 11-for-18 for 150 yards and 1 TD in his two preseason games.
Been here before
The debut of Broncos FS Brain Dawkins is being overshadowed Sunday. He has been out because of surgery for a fractured hand. The seven-time pro bowler should provide a bit of relief for CB Champ Bailey who has had to carry the load for the secondary.
Dawkins claims that the distractions from Cutler and Marshall won't impact his defense. He had to deal with Terrell Owens’ drama back in Philadelphia. He recently told the Colorado Springs Gazette that it was "A lot crazier with T.O".
Bears Quick Bits
- The Chicago Bears recently lost locker room-favorite DT Dusty Dvoracek for the season. He is not the only Bear on defense that is out. There are several first and second-team Linebackers that are not expected to play.
- While Jay Cutler gives the Bears their best QB in years, many are forgetting about newly acquired LT Orlando Pace, who has fit in nicely with the team.
- Devin Hester is expected to return some punts Sunday night.
- The No. 3 WR spot is still open but Devin Aromashodu has the edge on Brandon Rideau and Rashied Davis and also Cutler's approval.
Broncos Quick Bits
- First-round draft pick RB Knowshon Moreno and veteran RB LaMont Jordan are not expected to play.
- Correll Buckhalter should receive the bulk of the carries, but expect Darius Walker to get some touches as well. He rushed 48 yards in his last game.
- With Chris Simms injured, the Broncos signed Ingle Martin, but he has only been with the team for a couple of days, so expect Tom Brandstater to finish off the game
Line Movement and Weather
Line opened in favor of the home side at -1 and has since been pushed out to -2.5, while the total has been hovering from 37.5 to 38.5. Both the Bears and Broncos are 1-1 ATS in preseason this year and 1-1 on the O/U.
Bears coach Lovie Smith is 12-11 in preseason and 9-12-2 ATS
Weather might play a slight factor. There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the evening and temperature is expected to be in the low 50s.
For a preseason game, the atmosphere at Invesco Field should be testy Sunday night in the Mile High City. That’s because the Broncos’ former quarterback Jay Cutler, who recently rated Denver as a “six” for an NFL city, will return as the starting QB of the Chicago Bears after he forced a trade during the offseason.
By now, everyone knows the story. After Denver fell apart down the stretch last season to miss the playoffs, owner Pat Bowlen sensed that it was time for a change and fired long-time head coach and two-time Super Bowl winner Mike Shanahan. He replaced Shanahan with 33-year-old Josh McDaniels, who had served as the offensive coordinator for New England under legendary coach Bill Belichick.
The McDaniels-Cutler saga began when word came out that the new coach was trying to acquire quarterback Matt Cassel, who enjoyed a breakout year for the Pats in 2008. From there, Cutler cut off all communication with McDaniels and didn’t even return phone calls from Bowlen.
Therefore, the Broncos granted Cutler his wish and traded him to Chicago, receiving draft picks and veteran QB Kyle Orton in return. And that’s another subplot in this game, as Orton will be facing his former teammates for the first time and making his debut at Invesco, where he was booed after struggling during a scrimmage open to the public three weeks ago.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Denver as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 37 ½. As of early Saturday night, most books had the Broncos as 2 1/2-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 38. The Bears are plus-125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).
"From a motivational standpoint, the Broncos have a big edge," Bryan Leonard told VI. "Imagine how you would feel if your starting quarterback demanded a trade and it possibly cost you any chance for the postseason. From a fans' perspective, the home crowd should be fired up being on national television and adding in Cutler's remarks about the city of Denver."
Not only is Cutler expecting to hear it from the sure-to-be-unruly crowd, but he also expects the Broncos to come after him. And those defensive players will be glad to punish him if given the opportunity.
“In practice, you never really got to hit him," Denver defensive end Kenny Peterson told the Associated Press. "But now you've actually got a chance, if you can get to him, to lay your body on him a little bit."
LB Mario Haggan added, “It definitely would be nice to get Jay on the ground, give the fans something to cheer about and something to look forward to."
Denver will be without Pro-Bowl WR Brandon Marshall, who was suspended for the rest of the preseason for insubordination after showing his ass at practice earlier this week. In addition, second-string QB Chris Simms is “out” and rookie RB Knowshon Moreno is “doubtful.” WR Brandon Lloyd is “questionable.”
The Broncos have lost their first two preseason games, although they did cover the number in a 17-16 loss at San Francisco as 1 ½-point road underdogs. Seattle beat up on Denver by a 27-13 count last week as a three-point home favorite.
Orton was awful against the 49ers, completing 9-of-16 passes for 89 yards with three interceptions. He improved last week, guiding the Broncos to 10 points in the first quarter. Orton finished the night with 18 completions on 26 attempts for 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
With Simms sidelined, gamblers should expect Denver rookie QB Tom Brandstater from out of Fresno St. to get most of the snaps at crunch time. Another key player for the Broncos could be rookie WR Kenny McKinley, the all-time leader in receiving yards at the University of South Carolina, who has five receptions for 90 yards and one TD in preseason play.
Chicago lost its preseason opener 27-20 at Buffalo as a thee-point underdog. Cutler was somewhat shaky in that outing, connecting on 5-of-10 passes for 64 yards with an interception.
He was much more effective last week, hitting on 8-of-13 attempts for 121 yards with one touchdown and no picks. Cutler led the Bears to a 17-3 home win over the Giants as three-point ‘chalk.’
Caleb Hanie will get most of the reps at QB when Cutler leaves the game. Hanie is a second-year QB from out of Colorado St. Chicago will be without starting defensive tackle Dusty Dvoracek after he was lost for the season with a knee injury this week.
NBC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--When I’m working, I almost always have the television on some sporting event. On Thursday, I had the Eagles-Jags game going because I wanted to see Michael Vick’s debut. Unfortunately for me, I was on the Jags’ network with their announcers, including former OT Tony Boselli. We all know Boselli was a sensational offensive lineman for the Jags and after listening to him for way too long the other night, I also know he’s the worst analyst I’ve EVER heard on television. I would rather have my toenails slowly removed than listen to him again. Are they serious with keeping this guy in the booth? Listening to him is unbearable and painful.
--Tampa Bay has named Byron Leftwich as its starting quarterback, so don’t be surprised if Luke McCown gets traded in the next 48-72 hours.
--Atlanta backup QB Chris Redman looked sharp Saturday in rallying the Falcons to a last-second comeback victory over San Diego. Redman, who didn’t take a snap in 2008, found Eric Weems for a five-yard TD pass with nine second left to lift his team to a 27-24 victory. The comeback drive began with 2:07 remaining and allowed Atlanta backers to garner a push (as a three-point favorite) after trailing virtually the entire game.
--Mike Smith has to be extremely concerned about his secondary. Atlanta CB Chris Houston was beaten for first downs on third-down situations of 13 yards or more three separate times.
--Andy Iskoe said this about the Cowboys: “They have the talent to win it all and the coaching to finish last.”
Brandon Marshall’s behavior at training camp Wednesday was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
The Denver Broncos' troubled receiver was suspended by the team Friday for unspecified "detrimental" conduct. Sources are reporting the suspension will be for the remainder of the preseason and that Marshall will not play in this weekend’s preseason tilt with the Chicago Bears.
The suspension follows the release of video of Marshall in practice walking through drills, kicking away balls and batting down passes in receiving drills. Denver’s first-year head coach Josh McDaniels met with his WR Friday morning and told Marshall of the team’s decision.
Marshall admitted to ESPN that his actions at camp were “an error in judgment” and that he never tried to force a trade after Denver declined to restructure his contract earlier this summer.
"I'm not out there trying to be a distraction to the team," Marshall told reporters. "Unfortunately, yesterday I kind of let my frustration get the best of me."
The outspoken Marshall, who caught 104 balls for 1,265 yards and six touchdowns in 2008, has been vocal about his desires to be traded this offseason. He recently was acquitted of battery charges and was limited in camp due to injuries. He was held out of last week’s preseason game against Seattle after admitting he didn’t know the playbook.
The Broncos are a 2.5-point home favorites hosting former quarterback Jay Cutler and the Bears Sunday. Denver’s regular-season win total is set at 7.
NFL Top 5: Football's toughest schedules
By JOSH NAGEL
Handicapping the NFL strength of schedule is a time-tested tool used by professional bettors when wagering on teams’ win totals and weekly games.
“Sure, a team’s schedule in the NFL can be a factor,” said handicapper Blake Stevens of Henderson, Nev. “I look to fade teams on the end of a back-to-back stretch against string opponents, particularly if they played well in the first game.
“I also look for spots against mediocre opponents the following week. A lot of teams can get up for the big game, then lose a little focus against an inferior opponent.”
Strength of schedule tends to be somewhat misleading because the rankings are solely based on last year’s records. But it tends to even out because some teams that were strong last year but have down seasons will be off-set by others that will break through.
Here is a quick look at the Top 5 toughest NFL schedules for the upcoming season and some of the key games highlighting the calendar.
Miami Dolphins
(Win total: 7, Super Bowl odds: +5000)
It appears the Bill Parcells-orchestrated turnaround from 1-15 to 11-5 is going to be difficult to build on for coach Tony Sparano’s club. This season, simply clipping the over for their posted win total of seven might be considered a success. In short, Miami’s schedule starts brutal and stays that way.
The Dolphins open with road games at the Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers, sandwiched around a visit from the Indianapolis Colts. If they manage to stay in contention until season’s end, they have a road trip at the Tennessee Titans Dec. 20 to look forward to and the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers visit Miami in the season finale Jan. 3.
Carolina Panthers
(Win total: 8.5, Super Bowl odds: +1700)
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Panthers would be out for redemption after their blowout home loss to the Arizona Cardinals abruptly ended last year’s campaign. In order to do so, Carolina is going to have to earn it the hard way.
Beset by some question marks on defense and an aging and erratic quarterback in Jake Delhomme, the Panthers have tough opponents sprinkled throughout their schedule. They host the Philadelphia Eagles Sept. 15, followed by back-to-back road trips to the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys.
Carolina wraps up the season with a road trip to face the New York Giants Dec. 27 and their playoff hopes could be on the line when the New Orleans Saints pay them a visit Jan.
New England Patriots
(Win total: 11.5, Super Bowl odds: +400)
The return of quarterback Tom Brady bolsters the Patriots to the Super Bowl favorite at +400. But they will need to play at a championship caliber to eclipse the 11.5 season win total posted by oddsmakers.
The good news for New England backers is that the club benefits from having most of its formidable opponents coming to Gillette Stadium. The Patriots host the Atlanta Falcons Sept. 27 and the Baltimore Ravens Oct. 4. And down the stretch they host the Carolina Panthers Dec. 13 and Jacksonville Jaguars Dec. 27. A trip to conference rival Indianapolis looms Nov. 15.
Atlanta Falcons
(Win total: 8.5, Super Bowl odds: +1700)
The rookie coach-quarterback combination of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan worked for the Falcons last season. They will be hard-pressed to avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.
Atlanta will greet Miami Sept. 13 and Carolina Sept. 20 before embarking on a wicked road stretch. The Falcons visit New England Sept. 27 and face Carolina and the New York Giants on back-to-back road trips in November.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Win total: 6.5, Super Bowl odds: +4800)
First-year coach Raheem Morris takes over a team that is in rebuilding mode after former coach Jon Gruden was fired and much of the roster was re-shaped. Getting Tampa Bay backers the cash with seven wins might be asking a lot of the rookie coach.
Tampa Bay’s schedule is littered with strong opponents and includes road trips to Philadelphia, Carolina and New Orleans. Home games against the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots also are on the ledger.
The NFL's most competitive division will be up in the air once again in 2009. The Giants claimed the NFC East crown in 2008, but made a quick exit in the playoffs, falling at home to the Eagles. Philadelphia was coming apart at the seams after a 5-5-1 start last season, but Donovan McNabb reignited his Eagles squad, propelling them to the NFC Championship game.
The two teams that were left out of the postseason each finished the 2008 campaign on disappointing notes. The Cowboys won eight of their first 12 games, but dropped three of their final four to miss the playoffs. The Redskins were 6-2 through the first two months of the season, before losing six of their final eight contests.
Here are the season win totals for the NFC East, according to Sportsbook.com
NY Giants Over 9 ½ (-150) Under 9 ½ (+120)
Philadelphia Over 9 ½ (-160) Under 9 ½ (+130)
Dallas Over 9 (-130) Under 9 (Even)
Washington Over 8 (-120) Under 8 (Even)
The panel of experts at VI has plenty of differing opinions on the NFC East, as all four teams have the potential to make the postseason, while it's likely that Washington is the one team that probably won't win this division.
Chris David is high on the Redskins' chances to finish 'over' the posted win total this season. David says despite Jim Zorn's offense averaging 16 ppg last season, Washington has a chance to pick it up this season, "If the offense improves in Zorn's second year, most would expect a jump in the win column. Four of the losses last year were by four points or less and people forget that Washington started 4-1 in 2008." David also points to Washington's advantageous schedule, "This year's opening schedule sets up nicely again with four of the first six at FedEx Field. The additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo should only make the Redskins' defense better in 2009."
Brian Edwards sees the Eagles as the best 'over' play in the NFC East. Edwards comments, "I really love this play although the 'chalky' price certainly makes it less attractive. Nevertheless, it's a winner. I have Philadelphia winning the NFC. The offense is loaded with speed and McNabb has the most weapons during his time with the Eagles, which, by the way, includes a 5-for-10 batting average in making the NFL's version of the Final Four."
I am in agreement with Edwards on the Eagles, not only on the McNabb point, but also on the addition of Michael Vick. Granted, Vick is out the first four games of the season, but the Eagles should be at least 3-1 when Vick joins the club. The Eagles had a multitude of problems the first three months of last season, but got on a great hot streak which almost sent Philadelphia to the Super Bowl.
Judd Hall is high on the team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, the New York Giants. Despite the loss of top receiver Plaxico Burress, Hall believes the Giants should still thrive offensively. Hall says, "New York has a pair of more than capable wideouts in Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon for Eli Manning to target. That's not even including Brandon Jacobs taking over the rushing duties full-time this season, which will wear down opposing defenses. Hall points to a somewhat rough schedule for the Giants, "The league didn't do them any favors as the G-men play back-to-back home games just twice this season. This team should be able to win at least six of its eight home games and no fewer than four on the road. This should be an easy 'over' for us."
David disagrees with Edwards and I on the Eagles, as David is steadfast on the 'under.' "The Eagles have been catching a lot of buzz this summer as a team to watch, but for the wrong reasons in my opinion. Philadelphia has some serious offensive talent on paper and if Vick can stay healthy, the attack can be dangerous. The defensive unit lost arguably their best player safety Brian Dawkins to free agency and more importantly, their defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer," David notes. "Andy Reid is a great coach but he's only put up one 10-win season in the last four years. I don't see happening again this year either," David points out.
Both Edwards and Hall don't see the Redskins making noise inside the division this season. Hall says, "Washington made a great move in getting Haynesworth for its defense. But what did they do to help out on offense? Not a whole hell of a lot." Edwards questions the offense in D.C., "Coaching and QB play are big factors for me and I'm not a big believer in Zorn. To a lesser extent, I'm not that high on Jason Campbell, although I'll stop short of completely throwing him under the bus. Clinton Portis isn't getting any younger and this division is brutal.
I selected the Giants as my best 'under' bet, simply because this team was clicking so well until the Burress incident last season, and then failed to regain that offensive mojo. Throwing in the loss of Derrick Ward to Tampa Bay, it's hard for me to see Manning and the Giants winning more than nine games.
Cowboys fans, we didn't forget about you. But, Vegas probably landed right on the correct number of wins for Tony Romo's club. It will be interesting to see if Terrell Owens will truly be missed, or if Roy Williams can step up and become an elite receiver in Dallas. And to see how many punts will be knocked off the scoreboard at new Cowboys Stadium.
Game 279-280: Chicago at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 122.043; Denver 121.840
Dunkel Line: Even; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under
Nfl 8/30
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