[G-men]

Dave Malinsky

6* Tenneesee
6* San Francisco Giants

4* Over Boston/Blue Jays

[joey]

Dave Malinsky

6* Tenneesee
6* San Francisco Giants

4* Over Boston/Blue Jays

4* Atlanta/Phily Under 8.5

[joey]

6* #916 SAN FRANCISCO over COLORADO

In offering Barry Zito as a home underdog for this one the oddsmakers
are not rating either his current form or his dominance of the
Colorado hitters properly. So with the Giants off of a key Friday win
that gets them within two games of the Wild Card spot, and with the
Rockies having lost three consecutive high-pressure showdowns this
week, we have both Value and Timing going for us.

Zito was a huge disappointment in his first two seasons as a Giant,
and developed a reputation in that time that has become difficult to
shake. But since the All Star break he has worked to an outstanding
2.06 over 48 innings, including six frames at Coors Field on Monday
in which he did not allow an earned run, although the Giants
eventually lost in extra innings. And note that while this will be a
quick second look all the way around, we are not sure that it helps a
Colorado lineup that simply does not read Zito well. The numbers are
extremely significant based on the sample size, so let?s go in order
of career at-bats: Garret Atkins 4-22 (.182); Troy Tulowitzki 4-22
(.182); Ryan Spillborghs 4-19 (.211); Brad Hawpe 3-17 (.176); Todd
Helton 5-16 (.313, but no HR?s and only one rbi); Clint Barmes 2-15
(.133); Yorvit Torrealba (1-10); Chris Ianetta (1-10); Ian Stewart
(0-8); Dexter Fowler (1-7). Those numbers tell quite a tale. And the
latter stages are in good hands as well, which means that we have a
team that is 42-21 at home in a most favorable range on a night in
which they bring a lot to the table.

Winning the game becomes a matter of reading Jason Marquis better
than they did on Monday night, and in this case they get a couple of
bonuses from his 122-pitch outing. First, of course, is that the more
pitches you see the more of a read you can get for a quick return
encounter. Second, and most important, is that it marked only the
third time all season that Marquis went over 110 pitches. The first
two times his following outing was disastrous, getting clubbed for 15
runs (13 earned) over only 9.1 innings, and we particularly remember
turning a 6* ticket against him with the Angels back on June 24th,
right after he had thrown 125 pitches in the Colorado altitude. The
Rockies were embarrassed 11-3 that night, and Marquis was mercifully
removed in the fourth inning. Now a guy that has already eclipsed his
entire inning count from LY is coming off of a draining game at the
altitude again, and we see the timing and line value being right to
go to a high level.



4* #924 BOSTON/TORONTO Over

To say that the Red Sox read Ricky Romero well would be a major
understatement. They have faced the young Toronto left-hander three
times, and in 12 innings through those games they have scored 15
runs, 14 earned, on 19 hits and 15 walks, with four home runs. Three
different players have at least one home run, including a pair from
Kevin Youkilis, and three also have at least one double, including
three from David Ortiz. But here is the rub ? all three of those
games were in the Rogers Center. Now Romero has to deal with Fenway
Park for the first time in his career, and that makes this a most
unlikely spot to turn the flow of those earlier meetings around. It
also means the middle relief corps has to play a big role in the
proceedings and that is not a strength right now.

Much like last night?s close defeat, however, a game in which they
stranded 12 base-runners, the Blue Jays can compete to win here
because they can score. Clay Buchholz has been a disappointment for
Boston, working to a 2-3/5.02 through eight starts, and those numbers
tell the tale. There has not been much explosiveness from his right
arm, nearly twice as many hits allowed (51) as strikeouts (27), and
with 23 walks his control ratio?s are not good either. This will also
be the third time that the Toronto hitters have faced him since the
All Star break, which brings the kind of familiarity that means some
good swings, and also the potential for an early exit. But even when
the Red Sox are seemingly stepping up on the mound in the latter
stages, like sending Jonathan Papelbon into the fray, zeros are
anything but automatic ? Papelbon labored to a 28-pitch save last
night, and note that over his last six appearances he has needed 145
pitches to get through 6.1 innings, a sign of a guy being way off of
his game (he escaped after loading the bases in the 9th on Friday).

6* #265 TENNESSEE over CLEVELAND

It does not get much better in sports than having the far superior
team in the role of the underdog when they are bringing a serious
focus to the table. It also does not come up often, so we have to
take full advantage when it does.

Last week we cashed a 4* play against Jeff Fisher and the Titans,
partially because of how much that game meant to the Cowboys as they
opened their new stadium, but just as much against a Tennessee team
that had already opened 2-0, and had no sense of urgency to play to
the scoreboard. That changes here. Fisher does not want to enter the
regular season opener at Pittsburgh on a three-game losing streak,
and that makes not only playing well here a focus, but also on
getting a ?W? in hand. OK, so how does a loss to Dallas and one here
add up to three? Because Fisher has all along has been planning to
basically bag next week?s game vs. Green Bay, the consequence of
having to open up on a Thursday night the following week.

So what does that leave us with here? One of the best teams in the
league not only in terms of talent, but also in terms of discipline
and fundamentals. The Titans do not give games away, it is up to the
other side to take it from them. There is plenty of experience in the
systems of a veteran coaching staff and outstanding depth,
particularly with Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey both capable as
back-up QB?s. That means that the Browns will have to do a lot of
things right to win here, and they do not have those pieces in place.

The big story of the Cleveland training camp has been the Derek
Anderson/Brady Quinn QB battle, but there is a reason why neither has
been named #1 yet ? Anderson?s passer rating is 43.1 so far, and
Quinn?s 53.4. And note that the weak numbers came against a Green Bay
defense playing their first game in a new 3-4 system (the Browns got
shut out), and then a home game last week against a Detroit defense
that will be among the league?s worst. And while they did handle the
Lions 27-10 on the scoreboard, bringing us an easy 5* ticket, note
that over half of the points came on two big plays that had nothing
to do with those QB?s, a punt return for a TD by Joshua Cribbs, and
the 81-yard TD run by James Davis. Now the Cleveland offense has to
step way up in class here, and we peg them far behind where they
would like to have been in learning the Eric Mangini playbook, and
having the chemistry of the unit working smoothly.

The QB battle is just one of many issues for the Browns, who are
still unsettled in the OL, WR and DB corps. They are not ready to
beat a quality team yet, and it will show over the course of this
one. With Mangini getting that big home win last week he does not
have a sense of urgency for the scoreboard this time, and that makes
a big difference as the game progresses.

4* #910 PHILADELPHIA/ATLANTA Under
One of the last things that we expected to see today was any kind of Over action in a game involving Cliff Lee, but now that the 8’s have firmly been opened up as “win” numbers we can get in play here.
Lee has been nothing short of brilliant since putting on a Philadelphia uniform, working to a 5-0/0.68 allowance, and as we have noted a few times in this run, he was already on form at the time of the trade, with a 3-0/1.44 in his last three started with Cleveland. There are no flukes in the numbers – as a Phillie he has 39 strikeouts, while allowing only 24 hits and six walks. In 16 innings from this mound he has only allowed one earned run, with 20 strikeouts vs. eight hits allowed, and now he not only faces an Atlanta lineup that has little experience against him, but also one that has struggled badly vs. quality left-handers all season. With Chipper Jones in the worst slump of his career (3-39 the last 12 games, with all of the hits singles and nine strikeouts), we can count on Lee to stay right on track.
So does the recent mini-slump of Derek Lowe account for this much line move? Not in our books. As we noted in losing a 4* ticket against him on Sunday, he was in against a Florida lineup that had a lot of past success against him, and the Marlins read him well again, despite losing in the latter stages. Now the matchups shift. Lowe has had some difficulties with Chase Utley (who doesn’t?), but against the other key Phillie cogs he has been special. Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez have been held to a collective 5-44, without a single home run, and in small samples he has controlled Shane Victorino (2-11) and Jayson Werth (1-9). Like all ground-ball pitchers he will have those cycles in which the balls find holes, but as long as he is throwing strikes (50 walks in 158.2 innings so far), and keeping the ball in the park (only eight home runs allowed), he is a tough customer. So what happened in those bad outings vs. the Mets and Marlins? He did not walk a batter or allow a home run, and his outs came on a superb ratio of 18 on the ground vs. only two in the air. In other words, Lowe was Lowe, but too many ground balls found holes. There was really nothing wrong with his stuff at all, which helps to create an artifially high line here that we can take advantage.
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

[ballinchad]

Side and RL for todays plays, what are they?

[joey]

Side and RL for todays plays, what are they?

4* #964 SAN FRANCISCO over COLORADO

Last night we cashed a 6* ticket with the Giants behind a starting
pitcher that had dominating numbers against the lineup he was facing,
going into a pitcher that brought some serious fatigue issues. This
afternoon we have the same thing, and with the Rockies seeing their
momentum dissipate in a current 4-0 slide the timing is right all the
way around.

Despite a 12-4/2.39 that has him as a prime Cy Young candidate, Matt
Cain is flying far below the radar screens price-wise for this game.
Yes, he does not have a win in his last six outings, but it has
actually been this stretch that has confirmed his status as a true
Grade A performer. He worked to a 2.72 tune over 46.1 innings in that
span, working at least seven full innings each time, and the number
that means the most to us in that stretch is one that will be largely
un-noticed ? he did not go above 14.7 PPI in any of those games. That
is a sign of a guy that is learning to harness his outstanding stuff,
including weak contact outs instead of focusing too much on
strikeouts, and with only nine walks in those 46.1 frames his command
has been outstanding. We will call for that form to continue against
a Colorado team that does not match up well, and note that the Clint
Barmes, Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki quartet in the
middle of the Rockies order is just 16-97 lifetime against Cain
(.165) with only six rbi?s and 25 strikeouts. And with Tim Lincecum
and Barry Zito working through the 8th the past two nights, the
bullpen brings all key arms rested and ready.

Jason Hammel helps to bring a shot line here because of his
respectable 8-8/4.50 campaign, which includes a 3.08 on the road, but
the latter number is not something that we expect to hold up, and
this is particularly a vulnerable setting for him. This will be start
#25 for a guy that only had 28 career starts over three seasons with
Tampa Bay before coming to Colorado, and the last thing that he
needed this late in the schedule was to be stretched out to the 118
pitches that he threw against the Dodgers on Tuesday. Only once in
his career had he previously thrown more than 110 pitches in a game,
and in the ensuing outing, back on July 12th, the Braves got to him
for five runs on nine hits over just three innings. We see him as
clearly being less than what his overall numbers call for here, which
opens the door for the Giants to continue their momentum and get the
series sweep.


4* #980 SEATTLE Run Line over KANSAS CITY

When the Total is ?7?, where this one has now reached, taking a +1.5
should cost a fortune. It does not. The Mariners can not be purchased
for -130 to -135 in that category because of the respect being given
to Zack Greinke, and that means outstanding value for the way that
the numbers add up in this setting.

The Royals are 12-50 as -1.5 on the road this season, which does not
get them anywhere near this price range. So is it all Greinke? That
does not add up either, with a 2-10 -1.5 when he starts from opposing
mounds, and it has been over two full months since they last even won
the game outright as a visitor behind him, losing five straight in
that span and being out-scored by 15 run sin the process. And while
Greinke does bring special stuff to the mound, he has thrown at least
114 pitches four times in his last seven starts, culminating with a
117 in his last outing that matched his career high. We do not have
to fear him being on the top of his game here.

We also do not have to fear the Kansas City offense, particularly
with the under-rated Ryan Rowland-Smith on the mound. This will be
his 11th start from this mound since LY?s All Star game, and he has
worked to a solid 3.05 in those games, and we are seeing his
confidence grow the way that it should ? in all five home starts
since being inserted into the rotation this season he has worked into
the seventh inning, with only 26 hits allowed in 34 innings to help
create an excellent 0.97 WHIP. The combination of his stuff at the
start of the game, and last night?s working margin bringing the key
bullpen arms fresh, makes the task of Kansas City getting any kind of
comfortable win a daunting one.

[19th Hole]

Last 10 Picks

Date W/LSportPickUnits

08/29/09WINMLBSan Francisco Giants600

08/29/09WINMLBSan Francisco Giants600

08/29/09LossMLBunder (ATL at PHI)-440

08/29/09LossMLBover (TOR at BOS)-440

08/29/09LossNFLTennessee Titans-660

08/28/09WINMLBArizona Diamondbacks300

08/28/09LossMLBPittsburgh Pirates-400

08/28/09LossNFLArizona Cardinals-440

08/27/09LossMLBYankees (RL)-444

08/27/09LossNFLover (MIA at TB)-440

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Boy, Handsome Dave was so proud of his MLB win on the Giants
that he counted it twice.
Looks like he remains a great MLB fade today ....both
picks look hopeless.
He was so happy with Giants yesterday that he had to ride them again.

Good Luck to all

[ballinchad]

Haha,
I was on the Giants regardless cuz Teddy Covers was on them. Lucky 8th inning to take the lead. Maybe thats all it takes to turn around the bad streak, one lucky game.

[joey]

Chad i have a question....how old are you

[ballinchad]

Hahahah, now the Rockies are coming back. Probably spoke to soon.
I am 24.