Craig Davis

Saturday's Lineup

75 DIME ---- PHILLIES (With Lee) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over BRAVES (With Lowe)

10 DIME ---- RAVENS MONEYLINE

PHILLIES (with Lee) -1 1/2 runs over BRAVES (with Lowe) --- Look, I'm going to get right to the point. This selection is 100% about Cliff Lee. Not only what he's done since coming to Philly (5-0, 0.68 ERA), but what he's been doing since early July when he was still with Cleveland. There are so many things that impress me about Lee, but I think the biggest thing that has caught my eye was the fact that this guy was coming off a career year, everyone predicted he'd come back to earth, he starts the season and looks atrocious, but didn't let it get to him and now has become one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Lee hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a game since July 26th and he's only done that once since the first week in July. Five times since July 16th he's allowed only one earned run and he hasn't surrendered a single earned run in his last two starts (16 IP).

Lee has been so good since early July that he's won 8 consecutive starts, and seven of those weren't really even close. When you can throw a guy like Lee out there and know he's going to limit the opponent to two runs or less, you realize that all you have to do is scratch a few runs across yourself to get the team another win. Think about where the pressure goes... to the opponent. The Philly bats have given Lee plenty of run support since he's come over from the American League, scoring 6, 8, 6, 3, and 5 runs in his five Philly starts, and you'll also like to know that none of those games was a one-run win. Each Lee start with Philly has resulted in a win of two runs or more which is exactly what we need tonight. Lee also gives the bullpen a rest and puts my mind at ease (don't want to see Lidge), going nine full innings two times in five starts with Philadelphia and four times since mid-July. When you can get a guy to go that long on a consistent basis and pitch as well as Lee has pitched, it gives the rest of the team an unbelieveable confidence. Lee has seen the Braves just once in his career, tossing seven innings of 6-hit ball, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 7 and walking none. Needless to say, he won and I expect the same today.

The Braves will send out Derek Lowe (12-8, 4.48 ERA), and although he has had some success vs. the Phillies in his career, you can't help but notice his numbers of late... 1-1, 7.47 ERA over his last three starts. Granted, one really bad outing vs. the Mets inflated that ERA a little, but color me unimpressed with his pitching mechanics lately, not to mention the fact he's been lucky to get past the 6th inning. The Braves have dropped 6 of their last 8 road games when Lowe starts on the bump, and just 1-4 in his last 5 road starts when the total is below 8.5. Philly, on the other hand, is 5-0 in Lee's five starts as a Philly and 11-2 in their last 13 during Game 2 of a series. The writing is on the wall, and after scoring just four runs last night I expect the Phils to bring out the whoopin' sticks at home this evening. Philly wins by at least 4 tonight.


BALTIMORE RAVENS MONEYLINE --- The Panthers may very well win the NFC South again this year, but right now this team is in shambles and I doubt they score more than 14 points vs. the Ravens defense tonight. The Panthers have some injury concerns on the offensive line, Jonathan Stewart won't play because of an Achilles injury, DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith are both questionable and will likely be game-time decisions. Meanwhile, the defense hasn't been as good as expected through two games, allowing 24 and 27 points, respectively. Now they're going to be asked to play their best game of the pre-season because it's quite possible the offense is held out of the end zone... at least in the first half. Baltimore has won both of their pre-season games, including an opening week shutout of Washington, 23-0, followed by a decimation of the NY Jets last week. Granted, the scoreboard might show just a one-point win, but anyone who saw the game knows the Ravens dominated the first three quarters. A 21-7 lead ended as a 24-23 win, but the writing was on the wall. With the starters from both teams expected to play till at least halftime, I believe the Ravens are healthier and their first unit is more talented on both sides of the ball. Ravens win the game straight up.