It never hurts for a team contending for a playoff spot to have some belief. A little relief doesn’t hurt, either.
The Texas Rangers have had both on their side lately as they make a run for their first playoff berth since 1999. Solid relief pitching helped Texas become the first road team since June to win a series in New York against the Yankees.
“We’re treading into territory we’ve never been in before,” Texas manager Ron Washington told reporters.
The manner in which they did it, with three relievers combining to shut down the best team in baseball, has fueled the Rangers’ confidence as they try to track down the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West and also stay alive for a possible Wild-Card berth.
“This sends a statement that we can play with anyone out there,” said reliever Jason Grilli, who got the win with two-plus shutout innings Thursday.
The Rangers’ surprising team ERA of 4.19, ninth in the majors, is bolstered by the bullpen’s 3.37 ERA mark. This bodes well against a struggling Minnesota lineup that had mustered just 10 runs over its past three games heading into Friday’s action.
Pick: Texas -114
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers (+118, 9.5)
Windows of opportunity in the AL East don’t come along very often. The Tampa Bay Rays might see theirs closing soon and it’s in their best interest to make the most of it.
Last year’s surprising AL champion has been erratic in 2009, but recent speculation among local media and other baseball executives suggests it’s do-or-die for another run from the Rays.
The low-budget club is looking at the possibility of losing stars Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena to free agency after next year. If the Rays aren’t in contention at the All-Star break next year, there is a widespread belief that the club will trade one or both marquee players.
If that happens, another really long drought could ensue. In order for the Rays to make the most of this season, a strong series against the Detroit Tigers would help.
It’s a tall order, as a visiting club has not won a series in Detroit since June. But the Rays might be able to call on the memory of clinching the AL East title in Detroit last season.
They practically have no choice but to play well against the Tigers in order to stay in contention. Seven of Tampa Bay’s next 10 games are against the Tigers. The other three are against the Boston Red Sox.
If they are to return to last season’s form, the time is now.
Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
It’s no secret that Lee has been more than the Phillies could have hoped for when they traded for him to bolster their rotation down the stretch. There’s also no way you can keep him off of this list.
Lee (12-9, 2.62 ERA overall), who has an American League Cy Young award to his credit, might make a strong case for earning the NL’s honor despite a limited body of work. But what he’s shown so far is a masterpiece.
The 31-year-old perennial All-Star is 5-0 with an ERA of 0.68 since joining the Phillies. In his last start, he gave up two runs – both unearned—against the New York Mets. The left-hander has given up just one run in each of his four other starts for Philadelphia.
He also has been a bettor’s friend. With the exception of his last start, in which bettors were charged -250 to fade the Mets, Lee has been available for less than $2 in each of his other starts. That’s a bargain when you consider the return on investment.
Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants
Lost amid the deserved attention that San Francisco’s young aces have garnered, is the fact that Zito has quietly made a nice comeback for the Giants.
Since he arrived in San Francisco, Zito (8-11, 4.09 ERA) was becoming known as the guy with a nine-figure contract and 90-cent curveball. But the 31-year-old lefty has turned things around, going 3-1 with two no-decisions in his past six starts.
His last two starts ended in no-decisions, but Zito gave up no earned runs in each of those outings. A sign of his improving consistency lies in the fact that the three earned runs he gave up to the New York Mets is his worst outing over his past six starts.
Slumping
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
The 23-year-old right-hander has taken his share of lumps as the Milwaukee rotation has struggled. Gallardo is just 2-3 in his past five starts. But worse is the fact that he has put the Brewers’ bullpen in a tough spot by failing to give them quality innings.
Gallardo (12-10, 3.51 ERA) has made it past the sixth inning just once in his past five starts, during which he has yielded 16 walks. This included a five-inning outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he was tagged for nine earned runs.
Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
The hard-throwing right-hander appears to have revived his career as a starter in Chicago. Even so, Dempster has struggled at the worst possible time for a club desperately in need of a reliable ace.
Dempster (7-7, 4.07 ERA) is 2-2 with two no-decisions in his past six starts. This includes a two-loss stretch in which he gave up 10 total earned runs against the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.
Dempster has given up at least four earned runs in three of his past six starts, a testament to his struggles.
The final weekend in August finds the MLB pennant races heating up. And with it comes the opportunity to cash in on some solid handicapping situations.
Take a look into the top four series on tap this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are ‘team starts’ (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Most Recent Series Result: Braves 6-2 last eight games (8-4 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Braves 6-2 last eight games away (4-2 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Braves 7-0 away Fridays
Best Arm in the Series: Phillies’ Martinez 5-1, 2.42 ERA home career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Phillies’ Blanton 1-2, 4.50 ERA last three starts
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Most Recent Series Result: Rockies 5-1 last six games (7-5 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Rockies 6-3 last nine games away (1-2 this season)
Key Day/Month Stat: Rockies 11-2 on Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Rockies’ Marquis 7-2, 2.16 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Giants’ Lincecum 3-6, 6.00 ERA career starts
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Most Recent Series Result: Rays 6-3 last nine games
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Tigers 10-4 last 14 games home
Key Day/Month Stat: Rays 14-2 Saturdays
Best Arm in the Series: Tigers’ Verlander 4-0, 4.50 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Rays’ Garza 1-4, 5.28 ERA career starts
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Most Recent Series Result: Twins 6-4 last 10 games (4-3 this season)
Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Twins 8-3 last 11 games home
Key Day/Month Stat: Twins 16-4 home Sundays
Best Arm in the Series: Twins’ Baker 3-0, 5.11 ERA career starts
Worst Arm in the Series: Rangers’ Millwood 1-5, 4.31 ERA away career starts
Cliff Lee has posted simply incredible numbers since joining the Phillies, picking up his fifth win in five starts on Monday and featuring an ERA of 0.68. Much like CC Sabathia did last season there has been talk of Lee being considered for the Cy Young award despite splitting time in both leagues. Sabathia had a much larger sample in the NL last season and he did finish fifth in the voting, but Lee even has acknowledged it would be ridiculous to consider him over pitchers that have posted impressive numbers all season long in the league. The conversation about Lee would be made moot much more easily if a pitcher had stepped out to deliver a truly remarkable Cy Young season, but in both leagues the voting will lack a clear-cut standout choice unless something special happens in the final weeks.
In the National League, Tim Lincecum remains the favorite to win the award this season, which would make for impressive back-to-back wins for the 25-year old. Lincecum has certainly had a fine season as he leads baseball in strikeouts and owns the third best ERA in the NL at 2.43. Stat-gurus rightfully disvalue the win as a key measure of a pitcher but in reality the voters will not, so Lincecum with just 12 wins may get passed up as he has not won in any of his past four outings and the Giants appear to be fading. Adding to the dilemma for voters is that Lincecum’s teammate Matt Cain currently has an identical 12-4 record and also a 2.43 ERA. Lincecum greatly overshadows Cain in strikeouts but Cain has had a remarkable season as well but he may also lack the number of wins to seriously contend for the award.
The emerging candidate in the race has to come from St. Louis, as the Cardinals continue to pull away in the NL Central. Voters would also have a bit of dilemma as well as two Cardinals pitchers are deserving of mention. Chris Carpenter, a past Cy Young winner would have to be the leader with a 14-3 record and a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Carpenter has made just 21 starts however and his counting statistics like strikeouts will not measure favorably with many of the other contenders. Adam Wainwright has also delivered a fantastic season for the Cardinals and in the past six weeks he has pitched as well as anyone in baseball, perhaps outside of Lee. Wainwright also has 14 wins but his seven losses will make it tough for him to compete with Carpenter though he has made five more starts and also features a strong 2.61 ERA and 41 more strikeouts. There will likely be little mention for him as a candidate but St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin deserves some notice as the most dominant reliever in the NL, featuring a 1.11 ERA and going 30 for 32 in save opportunities.
Dan Haren owns a great 2.74 ERA and impressive strikeout-to-walk numbers, but playing for a struggling Arizona team leave him with a 12-8 record and likely out of contention barring an incredible finish. Dodger pitchers Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw were relevant in this race for much of the first half of the season, but like their team, both have faded in recent weeks. Wandy Rodriguez also has enjoyed a great season and is competitive with all the contenders in the key categories, but playing for a Houston team out of playoff race will count him out. Other than Franklin, the other relievers in contention lack the eye-popping numbers that would be needed for a relief pitcher to jump into the mix.
The pitchers with chance to make a move into contention for this award will likely hinge on the playoff push of their respective teams. Florida ace Josh Johnson owns a 12-3 record with a 2.99 ERA and if he pitches brilliantly down the stretch and can lead the Marlins into a wild card spot or at least commendably close playing for the low-payroll Marlins he should warrant serious consideration. The Colorado Rockies are a team with serious momentum right now and if the Rockies make the playoffs and particularly if they unseat Los Angeles in the AL West, starters Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez could both move into that picture. Both would sit a solid step back in terms of raw numbers at this point in the year and likely would have trouble surpassing some of the more established pitchers. An extreme dark horse candidate would be Javier Vazquez of the Braves who has the requisite strikeouts and a great ERA but has just ten wins and would need the Braves to make a serious September push.
In the American League, the challenge for voters will be even more difficult. At the All-Star Break, two candidates stood out, Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay. Neither likely has the credentials to contend for the award at this point as both have struggled in the second half. Greinke still leads the AL in ERA at 2.44 but he is now 11-8 after starting 8-1 and the Royals have fallen back to the familiar depths of the AL Central despite a promising start and the chances of Greinke improving his numbers are bleak. After constant trade rumors failed to materialize, Halladay has failed to live up to the great results that created his high demand and too-steep price tag. Halladay still owns strong numbers but not likely good enough to win the votes especially on what will be a losing team in Toronto.
Voters will be left to choose from the pitchers that will likely lead the league in wins playing on playoff teams, but featuring less than elite ERAs or choosing a pitcher on a decent team that has slightly better overall numbers. CC Sabathia leads baseball with 15 wins despite most considering it to be somewhat of a disappointing year relative to his last two seasons. Sabathia’s ERA is currently 3.59 which would be considered high for Cy Young consideration but he conceivably could lead the lead by several wins for the team with the best record in baseball. Josh Beckett will be in a similar situation and a couple of clutch performances that leads Boston into the playoffs could build some traction for his campaign but his 3.65 ERA is also a shade too high. Sabathia edged out Beckett for the award in 2007, despite Beckett getting the last laugh in the playoffs and the storyline between the two pitchers could continue with this vote and the potential playoff results.
Detroit has two starters that should be in the mix should the Tigers hold on to the AL Central lead. Neither has truly standout numbers, but Edwin Jackson is third in the AL for ERA and has been a reliable starter for Detroit even though he has just ten wins. Justin Verlander likely has a greater chance of getting votes as a more established name, plus 14 wins and the AL lead in strikeouts. Verlander has been hit hard in several games however and owns a much higher ERA than Jackson and several other AL starters.
The long shot candidates lack the past success and familiarity that Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay, and Verlander would benefit from. Felix Hernandez has the numbers in every key category to warrant attention, but he will have a hard time keeping up in wins and he will be hurt by the lack of visibility playing in Seattle. Scott Feldman and Jeff Niemann have great records pitching for playoff contenders, but neither comes close to an elite level in strikeouts nor ERA. Mark Buehrle has the perfect game stamp on his resume, but he likely will not get enough wins either and his overall numbers are not in the same league as some of the other candidates.
Francisco Rodriguez was able to steal some votes last year with his spectacular season for an Angel team with a great record, but even an all-time single season saves record was not enough to win the award. It would be tough for Rodriguez and Angel fans to swallow but the New York media could make a push for Mariano Rivera that would have a decent chance of success in a year with no standout candidate. Rivera is having a season similar to many of his other great years but playing for a first place team after years of success could garner some career achievement votes for this year’s Cy Young award. Rivera’s 1-2 record does not look Cy worthy, but his ERA is 1.87 and he has converted 36 of 37 saves while posting a 6.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
If you take a look at the overall pitching and bullpen numbers for the Indians this year, it might leave you scratching your head as to why I have the Tribe in this position. However, the fact is, this pitching staff, in particular the bullpen, has gotten much better as of late. The relievers are pitching better than they have all year long which directly correlates to Cleveland’s 20-15 mark since the All Star Break.
For the season, the Indian bullpen has an ERA of 4.82 which is the fourth worst in all of baseball. However, their .255 opponent batting average and 1.8 strikeout to walk ratio indicates they have pitched better than that lofty ERA might indicate. Over the last 10 games, this relief corps has an ERA of just 2.95. The pitching staff as a whole has allowed five or fewer runs in 14 of their last 17 games which is an improvement for a staff that has an ERA of over 5.00 on the season.
Many of the Cleveland relievers have been improving their stock as of late. Here are a few. Closer Kerry Wood has registered a save in seven of his last eight attempts. His ERA since the All Star break is 3.38 which is a drastic improvement over the first half of the season. Chris Perez, who was acquired in the Mark DeRosa deal, gave up six runs in his first three outings. However, since then he has gone 16 straight scoreless innings and dropped his ERA under 3.00. Joe Smith has an ERA of just 3.34 on the year, however since the All Star break that number is just 1.42. Finally, left handed specialist Tony Sipp has allowed only one earned run in 11 August appearances.
Improved starting pitching has also helped the bullpen numbers improve. This team lost Cliff Lee to the Phillies, however Fausto Carmon had pitched very well since returning from the minors in late July. Justin Masterson was acquired from Boston in the Victor Martinez deal and he has shown promise. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers have been fairly solid starters.
This team can score runs. Their 631 runs place them 7th in the league. They also hit nearly .270 as a team. With the pitching improving lately, especially the bullpen, this team can be a spoiler in the A.L. Central race.
Struggling – San Francisco Giants
In direct contrast to the Indians, the Giants have some of the best bullpen numbers on the season. However, as of late, they have not pitched up to those impressive seasonal numbers. That is partly attributed to AT&T Park which surrenders the second lowest OPS of any ballpark and just 7.85 runs per game.
On Saturday, the Giants bullpen blew a huge game with Colorado allowing eight runs in just three innings of work. Things didn’t get any better for the relievers on Monday as they allowed four runs in the 14th inning, blowing a three run lead and losing to the Rockies. That was the Giants fourth loss for the bullpen in San Francisco’s last nine games. All of those losses have been on the road which lends to the ballpark theory. Monday’s bullpen effort, five earned runs in 7.1 innings, pushed their ERA to near 4.50 over the last 11 games.
Due to poor offensive numbers, this team has been carried for much of the season by their starting pitching and bullpen. Now it looks as if the starters might be beginning to fade which will continue to negatively affect the bullpen. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been Cy Young contenders all season long. However, Lincecum has now not won a start since August 1st and Cain in winless in his last five outings. With Zito, Sanchez and Martinez being up and down, the strain on the bullpen looks like it will continue.
Closer Brian Wilson has 30 saves on the year, however he has blown two of his last five attempts. Veteran Bobby Howry now has a 1-6 record out of the pen after losing another game last week. Even Justin Miller, who has put up fantastic numbers for much of the year is slowing down. On Saturday he allowed four runs while getting only two outs. Monday was worse for Wilson when he gave up three earned runs and failed to retire a batter.
San Fran has a very tough schedule down the stretch. They still face the Dodgers and Rockies six more times. They face off against the Cubs four times and the Brewers and Phillies three more times each. The bullpen will have immense pressure applied down the stretch and I’m not so sure they have the depth or talent to hold up. Especially of the starters continue to struggle.
Back to the futures: Reviewing World Series odds
By JON KUIPERIJ
With only a month to go in the Major League Baseball season, take a look at this year's likeliest candidates for a World Series title:
New York Yankees +200
The Bronx Bombers have lived up to that nickname this season. New York features only two players hitting over .290 (Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano), but is second in the Majors in runs because it has hit the most home runs in baseball.
The Yankees struggled without Alex Rodriguez at the beginning of the season, losing 15 of their first 28 games. Though A-Rod is having an off season by his lofty standards, the protection he provides others in the lineup has helped the Yankees go 66-32 since his return. Ace C.C. Sabathia makes the Yankees even tougher to beat in a short playoff series.
Philadelphia Phillies +400
The defending World Series champions got even stronger at the deadline with the addition of Cliff Lee. Lee, last year's AL Cy Young winner, has gone 5-0 with a 0.58 ERA since joining the Phils. He's even hit for a .312 average in those games. Surprising rookie J.A. Happ (10-2, 2.59 ERA) and last year's NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels join Lee to give Phillies the best left-handed starting trio in baseball.
Philadelphia is the most balanced of the top six teams in the majors, ranking fourth in runs per game and seventh in team ERA. The club's biggest cause for concern is closer Brad Lidge (0-6, 7.33 ERA, nine blown saves). The Phillies are 4-1 versus the Cardinals this season, but have lost four of seven against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers +400
The Dodgers won 40 of their first 60 games this season, but have since gone 35-32. Part of their slowdown could be attributed to the 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez (use of banned substance). But Ramirez hasn't exactly set the world on fire since his return, batting .265 with four homers and 17 RBI since the All-Star break.
If Manny isn't Manny in the playoffs, L.A. will struggle to generate offence. The Dodgers have gone over the total only once in their past nine games. Fortunately for Los Angeles, its pitching should keep the team in games. The Dodgers staff has the lowest WHIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball.
St. Louis Cardinals +500
Pitching is also the strength of the Cardinals, who have the third-lowest team ERA in the majors. Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter head up the rotation, while Joel Pineiro has also been excellent this year. If pitching coach Dave Duncan's latest reclamation project, John Smoltz, can turn his season around, St. Louis will be even more dangerous.
The Cardinals offence, even with all-world slugger Albert Pujols, could be the team's Achilles’ heel. St. Louis ranks 20th in baseball with 4.45 runs per game. The midseason addition of Matt Holliday has certainly helped. St. Louis is 22-8 since acquiring the outfielder from the Oakland A's.
Boston Red Sox +600
Boston is perceived as one of the top teams in baseball, but the Red Sox have been a pedestrian 18-19 since July 17. The club's pitching depth, considered a strength at the beginning of the season, has thinned dramatically. The John Smoltz experiment didn't work out, Brad Penny has struggled over the past month and Daisuke Matsuzaka has been injured all year.
Boston's offence has helped overcome some of those pitching deficiencies. Despite a down season from David Ortiz, the Red Sox still rank third in the majors in runs and fifth in homers. Boston lost four of six matchups with the Angels this season, all played in Anaheim. The Red Sox still own a 9-6 edge on the Yankees this year but lost six of the last seven showdowns.
Los Angeles Angels +700
This year's Angels squad looks nothing like manager Mike Scioscia's teams of the past. Scioscia, a former catcher, has always emphasized pitching and defense. But it's the Angels' bats that have carried them to a 46-21 record over their past 67 games.
The Halos' top-ranked offence is masking the struggles of their pitching staff. Los Angeles has the 27th-ranked team ERA in the majors and its bullpen is ranked 28th. Jered Weaver has a 5.50 ERA this month, Joe Saunders has been ineffective and Kelvim Escobar is out for the season. If good pitching stops good hitting, the Angels could be in trouble in the playoffs.
Other notables:
Colorado Rockies +1500
Detroit Tigers +1600
Texas Rangers +1800
San Francisco Giants +2000
Chicago White Sox +2000
Hot lines MLB 8/29
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