OC Dooley

Free play

“1 UNIT” LATE NIGHT PRESEASON PERCENTAGE PLAY (Cardinals -3’ at home versus Packers in a 10:05 eastern kickoff):

This is another one of those wagers where I feel the oddsmakers have made a rather large statement simply by the way they chose to price a particular contest. Green Bay has won-and-covered both of their preseason appearances thus far and one week ago had an enormous 24-0 lead at halftime. Packers lead signal caller Aaron Rodgers has a passer rating (142.5) this is literally off the charts. Meanwhile Arizona has NOT won a game so far and the 3 top quarterbacks have produced no offensive touchdowns. One has to wonder why the Cardinals are being asked to lay more than a field goal tonight especially since two of their top wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are sitting this game out. Of course one of the reasons is because Arizona got a lot of late season national exposure during their run to the Super Bowl which has made them more popular with the general wagering public. Another factor to consider is that tonight marks the final HOME exhibition contest for the Cardinals who would like to build some momentum in what is always the critical game #3 where regulars get extended looks. I will admit that Green Bay has looked like world beaters so far but it is worthing noting that tonight is their first road affair. Even though former quarterback Bret Favre is gathering major headlines again, the Packers still have the most rabid fan base in the entire league since they are literally the “only game in town”. There can be no question that Green Bay had an emotional edge playing their initial pair of exhibitions at sold-out Lambeau Field, but it is going to be interesting to see how they do in their first test in a foreign environment. One of the keys to this pick actually surrounds a development earlier this week with rumors that Green Bay has shown some public interest in grabbing Luke McCown for the reserve quarterback job. What made that revelation so strange is that McCown is currently still on the Tampa Bay roster and has been battling for the Buccaneers #1 job throughout training camp. That public declaration tells me that the Packers are not exactly enthralled with their various quarterback options behind Aaron Rodgers which gives the edge tonight to Arizona in the late stages. Even though this is his third campaign as a professional, Matt Leinhart has yet to establish himself as a legitimate NFL lead quarterback and is currently battling Brian St. Pierre for the #2 Cardinals slot behind Kurt Warner. From what I have been able to find out Leinhart has a substantial edge over St. Pierre for that position, but it always helps to have some competition in motivating a player. Arizona tonight debuts Chris “Beanie” Wells as the former Ohio State star officially begins his attempt to unseat Tim Hightower as the lead running back. Wells already has an “injury prone” label attached so he needs to make an immediate impact as a professional tonight. What excites me most about Arizona is that their new defensive coordinatoe has been aggressive in launching a slew of BLITZ packages so far in the preseason. Last week Arizona’s number-one defense registered 4 different SACKS against offensive oriented San Diego. For those of you who are into percentage plays, consider that Arizona has COVERED SIX IN A ROW in “week three” of the preseason (also 9-0 ATS off an exhibition outright loss and facing an opponent who won by “double digits” the prior week)