Craig Davis

Friday's Lineup

20 DIME ---- BREWERS (With Parra and Duke as listed pitchers)

10 DIME ---- GIANTS (With Lincecum and Jimenez as listed pitchers)

5 DIME ---- PATRIOTS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 1/2)

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (With Parra and Duke as listed pitchers) ---- If history is any indication, the Brewers should have no problem taking care of business vs. the Pirates at home today. You see, these two teams have already hooked up 11 times in 2009, and although Milwaukee has only hosted three home games they won all three of them earlier this year. Dating back to last season, the Brewers have beaten the Pirates at home nine straight times by an average of nearly three runs per game. Tonight's Pirates starter, Zach Duke, has yet to face the Brewers in 2009 but came up on the short end of two big Pirates losses in 2008 and I don't see why that should change tonight. I realize he's been pitching better of late, but his career record vs. the Brewers is just 3-4 while his ERA is 4.70 including those two losses last season. Pittsburgh enters tonight's game having taken two of three at home vs. Philadelphia, but that doesn't take away from the fact this team just doesn't win on the road (18-43). Critics may point to Parra's 6+ ERA as a reason to stay away from the Brewers tonight, but if you look at his two career starts vs. the Buccos (1-1, 2.31 ERA), you can see why I think this is the top play of the day.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (With Lincecum and Jimenez as listed pitchers) --- These two teams have given us quite a season battle this year, and the fact that both of them are fighting not only to stay close to the Dodgers in the NL West but also the Wild Card race should offer some good baseball tonight at AT&T Park. For whatever reason, the Giants and Rockies have already played 12 times in 2009, but just three of those first 12 were played in San Francisco... and the Giants have taken two of them. On paper, this game looks like it favors the Rockies for a couple of reasons. First, Ubaldo Jimenez has already faced the Giants three times this year (winning twice) including last week's 4-2 win over Tim Lincecum in Colorado. He's also 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in his last three starts and might be the hottest pitcher the Rockies have going. But anytime I can get Lincecum at this price at home, how can you turn it down? Let's also not forget we're backing the reigning Cy Young Award winner and a guy who had "no hit" the Rockies for 6 innings just a week ago. A couple of untimely hits from the Rockies ultimately led to his demise, but that didn't take away from the fact he dominated the Rockies for 6 innings on the road. Don't expect a lot of runs tonight from either team, but in the end the Giants will muster enough offense to get the much-needed home win.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (If your line is -3.5, buy the 1/2 point down to -3, don't get beat by the hook) --- This play is as much AGAINST the Redskins as it is ON the Patriots. Week 3 of the pre-season is the week when you see the starters for the longest period of time (at least the first half) and when you stack up Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the others vs. Jason Campbell, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley, the clear advantage goes to New England. Look, I realize that Bill Belichick and the Patriots don't care too much about the pre-season, but this year is different because they want to see how far Tom Brady has come. In his first start, Brady completed 10 of 15 passes for over 100 yards and a couple of TDs. In Week 2, he wasn't nearly as impressive against the Bengals. So tonight the offense will revolve around Brady and the passing game, and after watching the Redskins defense for the last two pre-season games, Brady could simply have a field day. Has any team in the pre-season been less impressive than Washington? It seems as if these two teams have hooked up every year in the pre-season but, in fact, they haven't faced off since 2006. In the last four pre-season head-to-head matchups, the Patriots have beaten the Skins by an average of nearly 20 points per game. Since 2002, in Week 3 of the pre-season the Patriots are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS... let's make it 6-2 and 6-1-1 ATS after tonight's blowout.