Chris Jordan
Friday night winners ...
100♦ OVER Padres/Marlins
With Kevin Correia and Chris Volstad toeing the slab, and this one being in Miami, I love this total to soar. Both teams have won two of three behind these pitchers’ last three starts, but Correia has a 4.08 ERA in his last trio of starts, while Volstad’s 7.24 ERA his last three trips to the hill is eye popping.
Florida is in after losing five of eight after winning nine of their previous 11. And since it trails Colorado by 4-1/2 games of the Wild Card race, I expect the Marlins to get this one started early. I won’t side with them though, given Volstad’s numbers.
Delving inside the numbers, the Over is on winning runs of 9-1 when the Friars are on the road and 8-3 when they play on Friday nights. With Florida, the high number is on upticks of 14-3 when it’s the favorite,13-3 when it’s at home and 7-2-1 when it plays on Friday nights. More importantly, the over has come in eight of the last times these two have met in Florida.
I know the first three meetings averaged 5 runs per game, but they were played in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. This one is at Land Shark Stadium, and the Marlins will dictate the high-scoring affair.
100♦ PATRIOTS (buy the hook down to -3 if in fact your book has the line at 3-1/2)
If this the dress rehearsal for the real season,
and this one is in Foxboro, it’s a no-brainer for me to take the Patriots tonight
, albeit we’re playing it safe and buying the hook. Why is this line so low, you might be asking? Well there are still the uncertainties with Tom Brady, plus, there’s the changing face of one of the NFL’s better defenses, as coach Bill Belichick is changing from his 3-4 defense to a traditional 4-3 front.
Last season the Patriots ranked 14th in the NFL in sacks, so with this new scheme, there’s the opportunity for more chances at getting to opposing signal-callers. No better time like the present to make things happen and for this defense to prove to itself that it can dominate once again. And the greatest thing about the mentality of the Pats’ defensive members is they’re not as worried about the ‘sack’ as much as they are pressuring the quarterback.
So no matter how much Washington quarterback Jason Campbell says he’s ready, there’s never a good time to face a Belichick-coached stop unit. This is a significant adjustment, something that is never easy for opponents to prepare for. Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s about Brady at all tonight, I think it’s the Patriots defense, which could become even more perplexing than ever.
100♦ RANGERS
This is an awfully interesting organization, you have to admit. With Nolan Ryan running the front office and Mike Maddux handling the pitching responsibilities, this team has turned things around and poses a real threat in the Wild Card race. Think about it, the Yankees have the best record in baseball and most certainly have been playing their best baseball the past month or so. Yet the Rangers just won a road series at the new Yankee Stadium.
I didn’t see anything bothering the Rangers in the Bronx either, as they became the first visiting team to win a series there since mid-June. Much of their resurgent ways can be credited to Maddux’s effort with the pitching staff, that’s a given; but let’s be real, Ian Kinsler is killing the ball, Josh Hamilton looks alive after seeing his average fall to .220 this month, and then seeing him bat .429 with 10 RBI over the past 15 games. The good news is, Hamilton is a .389 career hitter against the Twins, and keep in mind this one is in the Homer Domer.
Texas is on winning runs of 7-2 as a favorite, 13-4 on Fridays and 5-1 when Tommy Hunter starts the first game in a series. Meanwhile, the Twins come in mired in losing streaks of 3-9 against the American League West, 3-7 against winning teams and 0-4 as the home pup. Value road play.
Chris Jordan 8/28
