Game of the day: Jets at Ravens
By STEVE MERRIL - I'm successful because I stay one step ahead of the books
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 32.5)
Weather and line movement
Weather will not be a factor tonight. The forecast is calling for 71 degrees and clear skies with just a 20 percent chance of showers and a wind of only 4 mph.
The Ravens opened as a 3-point favorite earlier this week and the oddsmakers have been reluctant to move off the key number. The early action has come in on the underdog Jets and the line has now shifted to Baltimore -3 +100 and New York +3 -120. Surprisingly, the moneyline for the straight-up winner has actually risen with Baltimore going from Pick -145 to -155.
The over/under line (32.5) has held steady all week and remains unchanged as of Monday morning.
Sanchez to start
Rookie Mark Sanchez will make his first start tonight for the Jets after a solid showing in his debut last week. Sanchez completed three of four passes for 88 yards versus the Rams last week, including a 48-yard gain on his first play in relief of Kellen Clemens.
New York head coach Rex Ryan commented, "I think he (Sanchez) earned the reps with the [starters]. It might have been done on paper that way in pencil, but he had to earn it. The guy had to earn his reps, and I think he’s done that. Without question, he’s done that."
While the starting quarterback position is still undecided, Sanchez has reportedly looked strong in camp this week and might be named the full-time starter if he performs well tonight, especially against a Baltimore defense that ranked second in the NFL last season in total defense and shutout the Redskins 23-0 last week.
Ryan, who was the Raves defensive coordinator, knows this Baltimore defense well.
"If you do anything against that bunch, you could move it against anybody," Ryan said. "It would count more than moving it against St. Louis. No disrespect to St. Louis, but they ain’t the Ravens and they’re not Pittsburgh."
Injuries
Sanchez and Clemens will not have their full starting offensive line protecting them. Left guard Alan Faneca had surgery on a broken middle finger on his left hand last week and will be out tonight. Offensive tackle Damien Woody is doubtful with a concussion and center Nick Mangold is questionable with a knee injury. None of them played against the Rams last week.
Because of the offensive line injuries, the Jets might limit the playing time of Sanchez and Clemens tonight, which means extra minutes for Erik Ainge. But Ryan has indicated that he would like to determine the starting quarterback position before next Saturday’s dress rehearsal game against the Giants.
Ravens’ gameplan
Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said the starters will play into the second quarter and perhaps the complete first half tonight versus the Jets. Harbaugh indicated that some starters such as Ray Lewis, Trevor Pryce, and Ed Reed would be on snap count.
“We’ll do it individually like we always do,” Harbaugh said.
Backup quarterback John Beck is out for the season with a shoulder injury, which leaves Troy Smith and Cleo Lemon to follow starter Joe Flacco tonight.
Extra motivation
Don't kid yourself into thinking this preseason game is like any other for the Jets head coach. Ryan told the New York Post last week that he'd love to beat his old team.
"Of course I feel extra about this game," Ryan said. "I'm not going to deny that. And I guarantee you they do, too. I was there for 10 years."
He was just as honest when the Post reporter asked if he wants to prove something to the Ravens.
"The fact that I got passed over for the head coaching job down there, does that mean anything? I think it does."
Ryan was under consideration for Baltimore's head coach after Brian Billick was fired.
"I always thought it was BS; I always thought I was the right man for the job," Ryan said.
The Ravens were able to make it to the AFC Championship Game last season thanks to a defense that gave up just 15.3 points per game and 261.1 yards per game. The mastermind behind that unit was Rex Ryan. Now Ryan will face his old team as the head coach of the Jets as Week 2 of the NFL preseason draws to a close.
Ryan’s first year at the helm of an NFL franchise has already been mired in a quarterback controversy. Kellen Clemmens was the lone holdover from last year’s stable of QBs in New York. The Jets then went out and picked up Mark Sanchez out of Southern Cal in the first round of the draft.
Clemmens was given the starting nod since he had experience in Brian Schottenheimer. Yet he has had a sloppy training camp this summer, which hasn’t helped Clemmens’ cause at all.
Sanchez has shined during camp with his ability to grasp the workload. It also helps that he completed three of his four passes for 88 yards in his debut against the Rams on Aug. 14.
The rookie from USC has done enough to get the starting nod for Monday night. Ryan has made mention that Sanchez could get the majority of the snaps against Baltimore. This game is going to go a big way towards determining who will be No. 1 on the depth chart in the QB race. As Ryan has mentioned, "You're going against a top group. Obviously, you're taking the body of work. It won't be just through one game. But if someone steps up and shines against the best defense in the NFL, then you'd have to weigh it more than you would going against somebody else."
Baltimore doesn’t look like there is much to worry about at the moment. The Ravens took Washington to task on Aug. 13 as three-point home favorites, 23-0. Joe Flacco looked sharp in completing nine of his 15 passes for 103 yards. Troy Smith also appeared to put a stranglehold on the backup job by connecting on 14 of 30 pass attempts for 200 yards and a touchdown.
The Ravens’ defense was solid all night long in surrendering just 196 yards for the night. They were also able to hold the ‘Skins to just one third down conversion on 11 chances in Week 1.
Most betting shops have opted to go with the standard preseason football line here by installing Baltimore as a three-point home “chalk” with the total sitting still at 32 ˝.
The Ravens have had little problems over the past few years when the Jets have visited by posting a 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread in the last five games at M&T Bank Stadium.
That information might suggest Baltimore is the play on Monday night. However, you have to remember that John Harbaugh is 1-2 SU and ATS in the three times the Ravens were listed as home faves during the preseason under his tenure.
New York would appear to be the play for this contest as they have gone 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight preseason games played on the road.
NY JETS (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (1 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
NY JETS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 32.5 and 35 points since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
When BALTIMORE RAVENS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a non conference game - Coming off 1 ATS win
13-2-0 ATS
14-1-0 SU
7-7-1 O/U/P
When BALTIMORE RAVENS team played as a Home team - Playing on turf surface - Coming off vs National Conference opponent - Coming off 1 ATS win
14-4-0 ATS
15-3-0 SU
9-8-1 O/U/P
When BALTIMORE RAVENS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a non conference game - Coming off a win on turf - Coming off a Home win
9-2-1 ATS
10-2-0 SU
7-5-0 O/U/P
Game 431-432: NY Jets at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 120.141; Baltimore 124.631
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 28
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 32 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under
NY JETS (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (1 - 0) - 8/24/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
NY JETS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 32.5 and 35 points since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Nfl 8/24
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