College football preview: The MAC breeds BCS busters
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We’ve got less than two weeks to prepare for the college football season.
This week, we break down the MAC, a conference that is changing and one known for pulling off major upsets.
A Toledo team that finished 3-9 went into Michigan last season and won.
Bowling Green opened the year by winning at Pittsburgh.
Who’s got upset potential this year?
MAC Power Rankings
(ATS numbers are for last three years)
Central Michigan Chippewas
ATS: 23-14-2 (Home: 11-3. Away: 9-10-2)
The Chippewas are the pick to the win the MAC by almost everyone. Ten returning defensive starters and prolific senior quarterback Dan LeFevour are the reasons why.
This program turned the corner in 2005. It had been on a nice ATS run, especially at home. But oddsmakers caught up to them last season. Central Michigan finished at 5-7 against the number, its first losing ATS season mark in three years.
Don’t be surprised if Buffalo doesn’t get off to a crisp start. Head coach Turner Gill hired new offensive and defensive coordinators in the offseason. The Bulls also are breaking in a sophomore quarterback behind a line with just two returning starters.
Buffalo does have two of the conference’s best playmakers in running back James Starks and wide receiver Naaman Roosevelt and what Gill says is the best defense he’s had.
Even if they start slow, the Bulls will be in the mix for the MAC East title.
Frank Solich’s team couldn’t catch a break last season. The Bobcats were plagued by injuries and turnovers. They were 112th in turnover margin and finished 4-8 straight up.
But a closer look reveals a team that managed to stay in games despite the turnovers and injuries. They went 7-4 ATS.
Fourteen starters, including almost every skill position, return from the scrappy Bobcats. There should be some value betting on Ohio this year. Solich has posted three straight ATS winning seasons.
Western Michigan Broncos
ATS: 16-18-2 (Home: 6-6-1. Away: 8-10-1)
The Broncos are tied with Bowling Green for the fewest returning starters in the MAC. But the ones they do have coming back are good, including senior quarterback Tim Hiller, 1,000-yard rusher Brandon Rush and all-conference linebacker Austin Pritchard.
This team could surprise. New coach Tim Beckman inherits 16 returning starters to begin his Toledo tenure. Senior quarterback Aaron Opelt heads into his fourth year as the Rockets’ starter, after passing for more than 2,100 yards last season. Opelt has his top receivers, top two rushers and all five starting offensive linemen back.
Bonus note: The Rockets’ have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the nation. Toledo is 31-15 ATS at the Glass Bowl since 2000.
The Eagles have been the MAC’s worst team for three years running. Enter former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English, who has 17 returning starters, including versatile senior quarterback Andy Schmitt to turn things around at EMU.
The Eagles upset Central Michigan to end last season. They’re on the rise in the MAC.
Bonus note: Since 1999, the Eagles are 6-20 ATS in non-conference play.
The Huskies have already lost two defensive linemen for the season. That’s especially painful on a defense that returns just four starters.
Bonus note: The Huskies are 1-9 ATS as home favorite the past three seasons.
Akron Zips
ATS: 16-19-1 (Home: 7-6. Away: 8-10-1)
This program appeared to have peaked with 2005’s Motor City Bowl berth. Since then, it’s been downhill for coach J.D. Brookhart and the Zips, who are 7-16-1 ATS against conference competition the last three seasons.
Bowling Green Falcons
ATS: 18-18 (Home: 3-10. Away: 13-6)
In the past, hiring Tennessee’s offensive coordinator as your head coach might have been exciting. But anyone who saw Clawson’s offense during his one miserable season (last year) in Tennessee knows otherwise.
Clawson inherits just 10 returning starters, only three on defense.
It’s probably a good idea to take a wait-and-see approach with the Falcons.
Ball State Cardinals
ATS: 23-13 (Home: 8-6. Away: 15-5)
Why would coach Brady Hoke leave Ball State for San Diego State if the Cardinals were capable of building off of last year’s success?
Offensive coordinator Stan Parrish was promoted to take over for Hoke. The 62 year old has a career head coaching record of 2-31-1 in stops at Marshall and Kansas State.
Only one starter on the offensive line returns to block for starting quarterback Kelly Page, a redshirt freshman that had the “deer in headlights look,” according to Parrish after a mid-August scrimmage.
Fade the Cardinals.
Kent State Golden Flashes
ATS: 13-21 (Home: 4-8. Away: 9-10)
The headline on the Kent (OH) Record Pub’s website said, “Poor play on KSU’s O-line raises serious flags in scrimmage.”
Ex-Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Haywood takes over the Redhawks, who hit rock bottom last year, going 2-10.
The offense has not adjusted smoothly to Haywood’s scheme. Scrimmage reports suggest the defense has been dominating. That’s a defense with only five returning starters.
Haywood might get things turned around eventually, but not this year.
Notre Dame's 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
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This is a make-or-break season for Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis. Luckily for him this is his most talented Irish team.
The offense should be loaded. While junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen has started 22 of the Irish's 25 games since 2007, Notre Dame has won just 10 games in that span. Last year did end on a high note with the Irish thumping Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. Clausen was stellar in that game, completing 22 of 26 passes for 401 yards and five touchdowns and no interceptions.
As a sophomore last year, Clausen had the third-most prolific passing season in school history. He completed 268 of 440 passes (60.9 percent) for 3,172 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. He had the second-best sophomore season by a quarterback in school history, behind only Brady Quinn.
But, again, the Irish went just 7-6 in 2008, and Clausen had eight picks and one touchdown pass in losses to Michigan State, Boston College and USC.
A major problem has been the running game under Weis. The Irish have posted the three worst rushing seasons in school history under the coach. Last year it was a little better at 109.7 yards per game; the year before it was a 75.3-yard average when Notre Dame won just three games.
Weis says the Irish need to establish the run so teams can't focus on stopping the passing attack and the stats show that when Notre Dame can run the ball it wins: The Irish were 5-1 last season in games when they rushed for at least 100 yards and 2-5 in games when they rushed for less.
Notre Dame will start four seniors on the offense line and has 10 offensive starters back overall. Armando Allen, who led Notre Dame in rushing with 585 yards last season, figures to be the main tailback, but there’ll be a bit of a committee. And very few teams have a better top duo of receivers than Golden Tate and Michael Floyd.
This year’s defense is a bit thin on the line but strong at linebacker, which works out nicely since the team is switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Keep an eye on true freshman LB Manti Te'o, who should become a star. The secondary should be solid, with former outside linebacker Harrison Smith moving to safety to help matters.
Here is Notre Dame’s schedule (times in flux):
September 5 vs. Nevada
September 12 at Michigan
September 19 vs. Michigan State
September 26 at Purdue
October 3 vs. Washington
October 17 vs. USC
October 24 vs. Boston College
October 31 vs. Washington State (San Antonio)
November 7 vs. Navy
November 14 at Pittsburgh
November 21 vs. Connecticut
November 28 at Stanford
With really only four true road games, there’s no excuse for Notre Dame to win fewer than nine games. Weis could be fired if the Irish lose that opener to the Wolf Pack and expect that game to be close. Nevada, led be dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick, was third in the nation in rushing last year and is one of the most underrated programs in the nation.
I like a 4-1 start to the season for Notre Dame, with the lone loss probably coming to Michigan State. The Spartans have won nine of the past 12 in that series despite usually being the underdog.
We really find out of Notre Dame is a BCS team on Oct. 17 against Southern Cal. BetUS.com has an early line on this one at USC -6. The Trojans held the Irish without a first down until the end of third quarter last year and have won seven in a row in this series. That’s the longest losing streak for ND against anyone since losing eight straight vs. Michigan State from 1955-63.
I think this year’s is actually quite close, but it will be another Trojan victory.
There is no reason the Irish can’t win out following the USC game. They should be favored in every game but possibly at Pittsburgh, which doesn’t have LeSean McCoy to gouge that Notre Dame defense this year.
Boston College blanked the Irish last year but is rebuilding. Stanford could be a bit of a test, but if the Irish are playing for a BCS bowl (and at 9-2 they probably would be), they won’t get tripped up there.
A 10-win season will get Notre Dame into one of the BCS bowls, because the TV networks still love the Irish. And 10 wins certainly would take some pressure off Weis. BetUS.com lists the team’s season win total at 9. The Irish are just +2200 to win the national title, which are the same odds as Penn State.
I would argue anything that is 8-4 or worse costs Weis his job, because the schedule won’t set up this favorably again.
College football preview 8/24
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