N.Y. Jets (0-1 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (1-0 SU and ATS)
Mark Sanchez is set to make his first NFL start and he’ll do so against one of the best defenses in the league as the Jets visit M&T Bank stadium for a preseason clash with the Ravens.
Sanchez came off the bench in last week’s 23-20 home loss to the Rams as a three-point favorite, going 3-for-4 for 88 yards and leading the Jets to a touchdown in his only series. The rookie, who is battling Kellen Clemens for the starting job, gets the start tonight and will get the majority of first-half reps, according to new coach Rex Ryan. Ryan, the former longtime Ravens defensive coordinator, said Clemens will also play in the first half, with rookie Erik Ainge once again getting most of the second-half action. No. 4 QB Chris Pizzotti, re-signed this week, will get one series in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens had possibly the most impressive Week 1 performance, blanking the Redskins 23-0 as a three-point home favorite, outgaining Washington 500-196, including 399-140 through the air. Coach Jim Harbaugh said QB Joe Flacco (9-for-15, 103 yards last week) will start tonight and play into the middle of the second quarter and maybe the entire first half, depending on the number of snaps. Troy Smith will replace Flacco, with John Beck and/or rookie Drew Willy finishing up.
Despite last week’s loss, New York is still 7-3 SU and (5-4-1 ATS) in preseason play since the final game of 2006. That includes three consecutive SU and ATS victories in true road games, all as an underdog. Additionally, the Jets are 4-1-1 ATS since 2004 when coming off a SU loss in exhibition play, but they’ve lost back-to-back Week 2 preseason contests (0-2 ATS).
Baltimore ended a three-game SU and ATS preseason losing skid with last week’s win, but is still just 3-5 SU and ATS in August since 2007, including 2-3 SU and ATS at home and 2-4 ATS as a favorite. Like New York, the Ravens have also dropped consecutive Week 2 preseason games both SU and ATS, both at home.
The under is 12-4 in Baltimore’s last 16 exhibition contests, including 4-1 under Harbaugh.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (67-57) at Colorado (70-54)
The top two teams in the race for the National League wild card conclude a four-game set at Coors Field when the Giants’ send left-hander Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26 ERA) to the mound opposite Rockies right-hander Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.58).
Colorado rallied to win Sunday’s contest 4-2 and has won two of the first three in this series to move three games ahead of San Francisco in the chase for the wild card. Colorado has won 13 of the last 18 meetings with the Giants dating back to last season.
San Francisco is 4-2 in its last six games against right-handed starters, but just 3-8 in its last 11 road games against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rockies are impressive runs of 50-23 overall, 9-3 at home and 7-0 when wrapping up a four-game series.
Zito has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and blanked the Reds on Wednesday on two hits over six innings, getting a no-decision in the Giants’ 1-0 win. San Francisco is 5-1 in Zito’s last six starts, and he’s held the opposition to two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings.
Zito shut out the Rockies for seven innings on May 3, allowing just two hits in the 1-0 victory. Going back to 2006, the Rockies are just 2-6 when facing Zito. However, the former Cy Young winner is just 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 13 road outings this season.
Marquis allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-4 win in Washington on Wednesday as the Rockies improved to 16-8 behind the veteran pitcher this season, including 6-3 in his last nine starts. Marquis has faced the Giants twice this season, giving up just one run in a complete-game 5-1 win on May 2, but getting hit hard five days later in Colorado, allowing seven runs (five earned) in six innings of an 8-3 loss.
With Marquis on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 12-5 overall, 5-2 at home and 5-1 against the N.L. West. He’s 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA at Coors Field.
With Zito starting, the Giants are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 5-0 on the road and 5-2 on four days of rest, and as a team they have stayed below the total in nine of 12 against right-handers. When Marquis pitches, Colorado is on “under” streaks of 11-5-1 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 4-1 against the N.L. West, but as a team, the Rockies have topped the total in nine of 16 overall and eight of 10 against winning teams.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in Zito’s seven career starts against Colorado.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (65-58) at L.A. Angels (74-48)
Division leaders square off in the first of a three-game set in Southern California when Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander (13-7, 3.29 ERA) opposes the Angels’ Jered Weaver (13-4, 3.83) at Angel Stadium.
Detroit dropped two of three in Oakland over the weekend, including Sunday’s 9-4 loss when the A’s sealed the game with a four-run eighth inning. Detroit is on slides of 8-22 on the road and 8-20 on Mondays, but it has won five of its last six series openers.
Los Angeles just wrapped up a 10-game road trip with Sunday’s 8-3 loss at Toronto, going 6-4 on the trip, but just 1-3 in the last four. Despite the mini slump, the Angels remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 38-16 overall, 68-33 at home against winning teams, 14-5 against the A.L. Central and 4-1 on Mondays.
Against Detroit, the Angels have won 46 of 65 overall and 27 of 35 in Southern California, though the clubs have split six meetings this year, with the host going 4-2.
The Tigers have won five of Verlander’s last seven outings, but dropped a 3-1 decision to the Mariners on Wednesday, yielding all three runs on six hits in eight innings. He was magnificent in his last roadie, blanking the Red Sox on four hits over eight innings of a 2-0 win. However, he’s just 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 14 road outings this season.
Verlander faced these Angels on June 5 and blanked them over eight innings on four hits but didn’t get any support, losing 2-1. Six weeks earlier, he made his only career start at Angel Stadium and got destroyed, allowing seven runs on nine hits over five innings, but Detroit rallied for a 12-10 win. It’s the Tigers’ only win in Verlander’s five career starts against Los Angeles.
The Angels have won eight of Weaver’s last nine outings and the young hurler is 8-1 at home this season with a 2.66 ERA. On Wednesday he threw a complete-game shutout at Cleveland, winning 3-0. Back on April 21 he gave up three runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 4-3 home win over the Tigers. With Weaver on the hill, Los Angeles is on runs of 26-9 at home, 6-0 against the A.L. Central and 5-1 in series openers.
With Verlander on the bump, Detroit has topped the total in 10 of 11 Monday starts and 17 of 25 series openers. But as a team, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 4-2-1 overall, 15-8-1 on the road and 14-5-2 against right-handed starters.
It’s been all “overs” lately for the Angels and Weaver, including 10-2 in his last 12 starts, 5-1 when he pitches at home and 4-0 in his last four series openers. Also, the Angels have gone over the posted number in 38 of 55 overall, 24 of 33 at home and 14 of 18 at home against teams with losing road records. Conversely, the under is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings between these clubs (3-3 this year).
If the Rays hope to play postseason ball for a consecutive year, the club will have to solve its away troubles. Tampa Bay is in the thick of the AL wild-card race, but its 25-35 road record is keeping the squad from distancing itself from Boston and Texas.
“It’s this road thing, man, that’s the annoying part of what we’re doing,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told the St. Petersburg Times after finishing 1-5 road trip a little over a week ago. “We go home and get ourselves well and then we go away and we get sick again. We have to figure that part out.”
The Blue Jays are the perfect ailment for Tampa’s sickness. Entering Sunday’s tilt against the Halos, Toronto had dropped 25 of its last 34 games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Rays
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals (-115, 9)
There was hope this year would the first the Royals played October baseball since 1985. On May 7, Kansas City was 18-11 and had the second best record in the American League.
Now the bad news for loyal Royal backers: Entering Saturday’s game, no team in baseball – not even the Pirates or Nationals – owns a worst record since.
The best chance for a KC win normally falls on Gil Meche’s turn in the rotation – the Royals are 3-1 in Meche’s last four starts. Of course you also get the best value fading the last-place Royals when Meche or Zack Greinke toe the rubber.
This trend should push you in the right direction: KC is 5-22 in its last 27 home games against teams with a losing road record.
Verlander’s 2008 campaign was marred with inconsistency, but he’s been old reliable for the Tigers this season.
The 2006 AL Rookie of the Year has walked just five batters in his last five starts and he can get out of most jams with his heater. Verlander is second in the majors with 204 strikeouts after last week’s 10-K performance against the Mariners.
“I’m sure he cares more about the wins than the strikeouts,” Detroit manager Jim Leyland said following the 3-1 loss to Seattle. “He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his best years should still be ahead of him.”
Backing Verlander always comes at a cost. He’s been priced at -180 or higher in four of his last six starts. An away start at Los Angeles opens the door to some welcome value.
Barry Zito (8-11, 4.26 ERA), San Francisco Giants
He may not be a cost-effective starter for the Giants ownership, but the Z-man has been a great bargain for his backers.
San Francisco has won five of the $126 million-man’s last six outings and the under has cashed in eight of his last 10 appearances.
While he doesn’t blow anybody away with his fastball – he tops out around 89 mph – he gets the job done. The southpaw has a 2.36 ERA in seven starts since July 16.
Slumping
Collin Balester (1-3, 6.75 ERA), Washington Nationals
We don’t like to beat a dead horse, but if Balester was pitching for any other team in the bigs, he’d probably find himself on his way to the minors.
The 23-year-old righty has just one quality start in six outings this season. He’s been tagged for nine home runs in just 25 1-3 innings.
The Rockies touched home plate three times before Balester was yanked in the second inning last week. He says a rushed delivery was the reason he surrendered five free bases.
“I’ve pinpointed it, and now I need to execute it,” he told reporters after the game. “I’ve been trying so hard, and I think that’s my biggest problem. I’ve been trying too much.”
After closing out their four-game set with the Mets on Monday, the Phillies move on to Pittsburgh, looking to continue their road dominance. Philadelphia is 39-21 on the road, which is better than the home record of every National League team.
The Phillies are 12-5-2 in 19 road series, with the set against the Mets still pending. They are 14-5 in road series finales and are -270 versus New York on Monday.
Darn those Sox
The White Sox have been a strong under play all season. Chicago's over/under record is 49-72-3 and the club has put together a handful of long streaks.
After rattling off six straight unders in June and 12 in a row in July, the Sox are at it again with five straight games under the total.
On Monday, Chicago visits Boston, where the total is set at 10.
They might be Giants
The Giants return home after Monday's game at Colorado to face Arizona and have a chance to extend a pair of trends they have carried all season.
San Francisco is 8-1 in the first game of a homestand. The Giants were undefeated until droping the opener of their last homestand to Cincinnati on Aug. 7.
And in series openers at home, the Giants are a strong 15-4. They had been a phenomenal 15-2 until dropping the series openers against Cincinnati and Los Angeles on their last homestand.
Preview: Rays (67-56) at Blue Jays (57-65)
BT Movements · Line Movements · Picks
Game: 1
Venue: Rogers Centre
Date: August 24, 2009 7:07 PM EDT
Thanks to a successful homestand, the Tampa Bay Rays are challenging for the AL wild card lead.
To charge to the top, the Rays could use some wins away from home, but those victories have proved elusive since their previous trip to Toronto.
Tampa Bay returns to Rogers Centre on Monday night and will try to continue its success against the Blue Jays, but that won't be easy as it draws yet another matchup with Toronto ace Roy Halladay.
After winning six times on a nine-game homestand, the Rays (67-56) are battling Boston and Texas for the wild card as they open a seven-game road trip.
With a rare off day from its hitters, Tampa Bay fell 4-0 to the Rangers on Sunday. The Rays managed five hits after batting .300 while winning six of their previous seven.
The defending AL champions have dropped four straight and six of seven on the road since taking the first two games of a three-game series in Toronto from July 24-25. They have beaten the Jays in nine of 12 meetings this season - four of six at Rogers Centre - and 20 of 30 since the start of 2008.
Tampa Bay, however, will face Halladay (13-6, 2.78 ERA) for the fifth time this season Monday. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 2.10 ERA in his four starts against the Rays, who dealt him losses in the first two matchups.
After getting four runs in the first three meetings, Halladay beat Tampa Bay 5-2 on the road Aug. 14, allowing both runs over eight innings.
Halladay, though, is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, giving up five runs in five innings in Wednesday night's 6-1 loss to visiting Boston. It was the second time this season he failed to pitch six innings and first since straining his groin against Florida on June 12.
"I was trying to make quality pitches and I just didn't do it," he said. "I just did a bad job of pitching ahead, aggressively."
Halladay, trying to avoid losing consecutive starts for the second time this season, has beaten Tampa Bay once in the last six home matchups. He's 1-2 with a 3.61 ERA in those games.
Rays rookie right-hander Jeff Niemann (11-5, 3.71) will oppose Halladay again after helping hand him one of those defeats by outdueling him in a 4-1 win in Toronto on June 29, allowing one run over 7 1-3 innings. He also lost 5-1 on July 26 at Rogers Centre while giving up five runs over 6 2-3 innings.
That's the only defeat Niemann has suffered in 12 starts dating to June 3. He earned his seventh win in that span Wednesday night at home against Baltimore and became the first rookie in the majors to reach 11 victories.
In posting his first win since Aug. 1, he gave up one run while pitching into the eighth inning for the seventh time this season.
"He's just in control," manager Joe Maddon said. "Very solid all the way through. His work has been excellent, both physically and mentally."
With one victory in this three-game series, the Rays will post a winning record in Toronto for the first time since going 6-4 in 2003.
Inside the lines 8/24
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