TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Romero)-130 over Los Angeles Angels(Bell)
Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. It's tough to go against the Angels, as they're among the best teams in baseball. However, I feel that this will be a favorable situation and matchup to do so. For starters, this is the final game of a long (10 game) Eastern road trip. After this, the Angels return home to LA in preparation for tomorrow's game vs. Detroit. They last played a home game way back on Aug. 12th and it could be easy for them to get caught looking ahead to the return trip. More importantly, I feel that the pitching matchup will favor the Jays. Ricky Romero gets the call and he's been one of Toronto's better pitchers. For the season, he's gone 10-5 with a solid 3.95 ERA, averaging better than six innings per start. When looking closer into Romero's record, we find that he's been much better when pitching during the afternoon, than he has been during the evening. At night, he's just 4-4 with a 4.78 ERA. However, he's an impressive 6-1 with a 2.98 ERA in his eight daytime starts. Trevor Bell has made two starts. While he does have a 1-0 record, he's barely been mediocre. In his first start, which came in the afternoon, he allowed nine hits and four runs in 5 1/3 innings. His second start, which came in the evening, was very similar, as he allowed nine hits and three runs in 5 1/3 innings. That translates to a combined 5.91 ERA and 1.97 WHIP - which isn't very good at all - including a 6.75 ERA in his daytime start. Even with yesterday's setback, the Jays are still 11-7 the last 18 times that they were a host in this series. I expect Romero to be the better of the two young starters and for the Jays to grab the rubber game of this series. *7 Sunday Afternoon Roast
I'm playing on Boston and New York to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been of the high-scoring variety. I expect a much different result this evening. With the number having climbed from 8.5 to nine at many shops, I also feel we're getting excellent line value. Sabathia goes for the Yankees and he's been terrific lately. Indeed, he's gone 3-0 with an extremely stingy 1.14 ERA and a 0.634 WHIP over his last three starts, averaging nearly eight innings per outing. It should also be noted that Sabathia has seen the UNDER go 8-2-1 (or 7-2-2) in his 11 career starts vs. Boston, including 2-0 as a member of the Yankees. He allowed four earned runs or less in nine of those 11 starts, most recently tossing 7 2/3 shutout innings against them on 8/8. In that game, he allowed a mere two hits, recording nine 9 K's along the way. Beckett gets the call for the Red Sox and that should make the Fenway faithful feel optimistic. That's because Beckett is an awesome 8-0 (Sox are 10-1) in 11 home starts, recording a very impressive 2.58 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a profitable 7-4 in those games and is now 9-4-1 his last 14 home starts, dating back to last season. Beckett has also been superb in his last couple of starts vs. the Yankees. In fact, in his last two starts vs. New York, he hasn't allowed a single run, giving up a mere five hits in 13 innings, while recording 15 K's. You may recall Beckett's last start vs. New York, as it was the game which stayed scoreless all the way until the bottom of the 15th inning. Prior to that, in his most recent home start vs. the Yankees, he tossed six shutout innings. That game also stayed below the total. Even with the high-scoring results of the first two games, the UNDER is still a healthy 10-4-2 the last 16 times that these teams faced each other. I expect those numbers to improve here. (10* Top AL total)
Ben Burns 8/23
Reply With Quote