Wunderdog 8/22
Wunderdog
Game: New York Yankees at Boston
4 units Boston +130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.2)
3 units UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The oddsmakers have a forced hand here after everyone watched these teams put up 31 runs last night, so this one is padded. You know the Red Sox are going to take last night's debacle personally, and come out with a much better resolve for this one. The Red Sox have been devastating at home vs. right-hand pitching, where they have run the count to 90-41 in their last 131 at Fenway. Overall they are now 14-3 against a team with a winning record playing them at Fenway as well. Burnett has pitched well enough to see his last eight starts with a total set between 9-10.5 all go UNDER, and the Sox have played to a 20-7-1 mark in their last 28 as a dog, and under to the tune of 30-13-2 when the opponent scored five or more in their last game. The Yankees haven't exactly been feasting at Fenway, as they are just 1-7 in their last eight played here. I like the Red Sox and the UNDER here.
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay
5 units Tampa Bay -170 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 2.9)
While the gap between these teams in the standings is minimal, when you consider the venue, the gap is substantial. The Rangers are 55-115 in their last 170 as a dog of +151 to +200. They have a losing record on the road this season, while Tampa Bay has been fielding a wrecking crew in Tampa at 85-35 in their last 120 as a home favorite. Jump that line up to -151 to -200 and they go to a solid 49-11! So we are really looking at 49-11 vs. 55-115 when you get right down to it. I don't see the odds here looking anything close to what those numbers say, especially with Tampa having their ace on the mound in Matt Garza who has had a 3.21 and 2.89 ERA at home the past two seasons. The Rangers have found the wins difficult to come by in Tampa as they have dropped six of their last seven here. I like Tampa in this one.
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay
3 units Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
You don't have to look long and hard to find value here, as Tampa is in their best role as a chunky chalk, which is the Rangers worst role - as a chunky dog. The Rays are 49-11 as a favorite from -151 to -200, while the Rangers are just 55-115 in the same size role as a dog. When you consider that Garza is the Rays' ace, and the Rangers are just 1-7 in their last eight played in Tampa, the runline with its plus odds, becomes a very favorable and value-laden proposition. I'll also go with Tampa on the runline in this one.
|
