Yankee Stadium isn’t the only ballpark in the majors putting up big numbers. Bats have gotten a slight boost from a renovated Kauffman Stadium. Buildings added along the outfield have closed in the stadium and kept winds swirling about, giving balls a bit more giddy up.
"I'll be standing there and feeling the wind blowing against my pants one way and the next thing you know, the same inning a few batters later, it'll be blowing my pants the other way," left fielder David DeJesus told MLB.com. "You've just got to keep your eye on it."
Heading into Thursday, there have been 103 home runs at Kauffman Stadium in 2009 compared to the 96 dingers registered in the first 61 home games in 2008. The Royals have 48 home runs at home this season. Last year at this time, they had just 38 round-trippers inside Kauffman Stadium. Triples are also on the rise at Kauffman, with 40 three-baggers – third most in the bigs.
Kauffman Stadium has always been considered more of a pitcher’s park until this year. The ballpark currently ranks as the third-best hitter's park in the majors with a 1.166 rating. (Anything above 1.000 is considered a hitter's park.)
That bump in power may not seem like a lot but it’s produced a 32-26-2 over/under mark at Kauffman Stadium. That’s a huge difference when compared to Kansas City’s 20-35-4 over/under record on the road.
Pick: Over 9.5
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (+102, 10)
The Blue Jays have got the runs.
No, not the type of runs you get when mixing a tainted $12 ballpark footlong with eight $10 ballpark beers. We’re talking the type of runs that cause a team to hemorrhage score after score.
Toronto has sharted out 37 runs during its five-game losing skid, including handing over 24 scores in a three-game sweep to the Boston Red Sox. The Jays have a collective ERA of 5.54 in the past week and have watched their starters get beat up and their bullpen give up late runs.
Now, Toronto faces the best hitting team in baseball when the Angels enter the Rogers Center Friday for a three-game weekend stay. Los Angeles is averaging just under six runs per game and hitting a major league-best .289 this season.
The Halos are 23-10 versus the American League East and have won seven of their last 10 meetings with the Blue Jays.
Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Aaron Laffey, Cleveland Indians (7-3, 3.61 ERA)
Here’s a guy oddsmakers haven’t caught on to yet. The 24-year-old lefty has won four of his last five starts and the highest odds he saw during that stretch was -114.
Laffey was recalled from Columbus Triple-A in April and has been competing with a group of other prospects to stay in the bigs for the remainder of this season and next. His ERA is just 1.35 over his past three starts and he has shown a knack for getting himself out of jams.
Laffey doesn’t punch out a ton of batters but he also doesn’t give up many long balls. He has only given up three home runs in 17 appearances this season.
Tommy Hunter, Texas Rangers (6-2, 2.64)
For Hunter’s first six games, in what is really his rookie season, he was God’s gift to under bettors. The under went 6-0 and oddsmakers were slow to bump him down from lofty totals like 11 and 10.5.
That’s changed now. But the good news is that he’s winning. The Rangers have won seven of Hunter’s 10 starts. He’s especially impressive on the road, where he is 2-0 and carries a 0.87 ERA.
Hunter visits the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday.
Slumping
Tim Redding, New York Mets (1-4, 6.53 ERA)
The Mets are stinking it up so bad right right now, they’re turning to an arm they relegated to the bullpen even though he’s given some of his worst relief efforts lately.
Redding gave up three runs in each of his last two outings despite only pitching a total of four innings. But the move is necessary after the Mets dumped Livan Hernandez Thursday, in part to make room for returning closer Billy Wagner. They also have three starting pitchers on the DL, so they’re forced to go with the journeyman for at least one start.
Redding faces a red-hot J.A. Happ and the Phillies Saturday.
What bettors need to know: Yankees at Red Sox
By DAVID CHAN - My handicapping process delivers profits season after season
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Season series
If you're looking at the entire season, the Red Sox have dominated the Yankees, winning eight of 12 matchups.
However, both teams are singing a much different tune after the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a four-game series in the Bronx two weeks ago.
Betting the home side has been a highly profitable endeavor, as the host has taken 10 out of 12 meetings.
The Red Sox did manage to sweep a short two-game series in New York back in early May.
Streaks and stats
The Yankees improved to 5-2 on their current road trip with a win in Oakland Wednesday. They enter this series riding an incredible 14-3 run.
New York has also won eight of its last 10 games on the road to move eight games over .500 as the visitor this season.
The Red Sox have played much better baseball since taking a beating at the hands of the Yankees. Since that four-game sweep they have won six of nine games (pending Thursday's result).
Fenway Park hasn't been quite as kind to the Sox lately. They've won only five of their last nine games in the shadow of the Green Monster.
A.J. Burnett was a hard-luck loser in his last start in Oakland, falling 3-0 despite tossing eight quality innings.
The Yankees right-hander has been terrific in his career against the Red Sox 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. On August 7, he gave up only one hit over 7 2-3 innings against the Sox.
You'll remember that Junichi Tazawa got his first taste of big league ball in that 15-inning marathon against the Yankees. He gave up the game-winning two-run shot to Alex Rodriguez.
Since then, Tazawa has settled down, splitting a pair of decisions against the Tigers and Rangers. He has been hit hard, however, giving up 18 hits in 11 2-3 innings pitched.
The series finale is a dream matchup for ESPN when both teams' aces go head-to-head.
Sabathia has reeled off four consecutive victories, lasting eight innings in each of his last two starts. He has struck out 26 batters while giving up only 10 hits in his last 23 2-3 innings pitched.
Sabathia is just 3-5 with a 3.57 ERA in nine career starts against Boston.
Like Sabathia, Josh Beckett will also be going for his 15th win of the season Sunday.
Beckett was hit hard against the Blue Jays in his last start, giving up nine hits and seven earned runs over 5 1-3 innings. Prior to that, he had lasted at least seven innings in six consecutive starts.
The Red Sox are 15-4 in Beckett's last 19 starts and are 3-1 in his four starts against the Yankees this season.
Injury report
The Yankees have two key recent injuries worth mentioning. Brett Gardner remains on the DL while Hideki Matsui had fluid drained from his knee last Sunday, but returned to the lineup Tuesday.
Recent Red Sox injuries of note include Rocco Baldelli (bruised ankle, 15-day DL), Jason Varitek (strained neck, day-to-day), and J.D. Drew (sore groin, returned Tuesday).
Odds and ends
The Yankees continue their 10-game road trip which has already taken them to Seattle and Oakland.
Boston makes the short trip from Toronto to open up a 10-game homestand.
The two teams own almost identical records in series openers this season. The Yankees check in at 23-16 while the Red Sox are 24-15.
The Fall Guy: A Bookmaker’s Take on Late-Season Baseball Betting
Over at Bodog we absolutely love this time of year. Not because of the falling leaves or the sudden drop in temperature (especially at night) or the long awaited return of yet another season of “American Idol.” No, our love for fall runs much deeper than that.
Baseball. This time of year it’s all about late-season baseball at Bodog.
With the push for the playoffs in full swing, Major League Baseball certainly gets much more interesting as fall approaches. Despite the added availability of college and pro football (albeit preseason), the average bet on baseball at Bodog actually increases at this time of year.
Why do we like baseball so much at this time of the year? That’s pretty simple: The more people who watch a sporting event, the more they are likely to bet on it. And there are a lot more people watching baseball now than there were earlier on in the season. (So you can see how that would be good for business.)
However, in taking a step back to look at the bigger picture – another reason for the increase in betting has to do with the favorites. Come Sept. 1, when teams can expand their rosters to 40 players and all those minor leaguers are brought up for a look, you can be sure the pennant-contending teams are going to play their more experienced players.
But you can bet clubs like the Royals, Pirates, Padres, Orioles and Indians, etc., will be giving those kids a run for their money (…and why not). Take Cleveland, for example. They just called up top prospect 1B Matt LaPorta, who was the key piece to the CC Sabathia trade last year. Tribe manager Eric Wedge said LaPorta would see “regular” time, but the slugger hit just .190 (8-for-42) in a big-league stint earlier this season.
So when you match the young prospects against the more motivated veterans on teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Dodgers, Phillies, Rockies, etc., you are almost guaranteed to see a bigger return on your investment – if you continue to wager the same amount on the underdog and they win.
If you’re looking to gain an advantage at this point in the season, another strategy is to look at the minor-league stats of some of the called-up pitchers who are playing other non-contending teams. These games tend to see very little action. In addition, playing smaller favorites or dogs means the bettor needs to win fewer plays to turn a profit. (It seems logical and obvious, but bettors get lured by those bigger moneylines – and we as bookmakers certainly know that.)
And then there are the wily veterans who have been nursing injuries. If their teams are out of contention, it usually behooves the club to shut that player down for the season and let a younger player get into the lineup. Guys like Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore (Cleveland) figure to be shut down any day now. Same goes for the Mets, who may not try to rush David Wright back from his concussion or push Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado back from their long disabled list stints.
There’s value in late-season baseball. Take my word for it.
The Cubs have been a mystery all season long. In 2008, Chicago looked to be headed to its first World Series since 1945, but was quickly eliminated by the Dodgers in the first round of the postseason. The expectations were still high coming into this season for Lou Piniella's squad, but injuries derailed that plan, as the Cubs sit in second place inside the NL Central.
Despite Wednesday's victory at San Diego, the Cubs have dropped nine of their last 13 games. Chicago came out of the All-Star Break like gang-busters, going 11-3, but ten of those wins came against the Nationals, Reds, and Astros. Amazingly, the Cubs have not won a road series this season against a team that is currently above .500.
The pitching staff has seen its share of injuries, as ace Carlos Zambrano is rehabbing from a stint on the disabled list due to back spasms. The loss of Zambrano is taking its effect on the Cubs, as the team was 14-6 in his 20 starts, with seven wins each at home and on the road.
The co-team leader in wins, Ted Lilly, picked up a no-decision in a hard-luck loss on Monday at San Diego, his first start since mid-July. Lilly has been dominant at home, owning a 6-1 mark and 1.86 ERA at Wrigley this season. The Cubs southpaw has not been a great play on the road, as Chicago is 4-7 in Lilly's away starts.
Randy Wells has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs, compiling a 9-5 mark, and ERA of 3.01. Chicago is 9-2 in Wells' last 11 starts, but the Illinois native has beaten the Pirates twice, the Reds twice, Astros, and Nationals in this span.
Cubs fans can point to the multitude of blown saves by the bullpen, namely Kevin Gregg, who was demoted after allowing a walk-off homer in Monday's loss to the Padres. Gregg has blown three saves this month, and was recently replaced by set-up man, Carlos Marmol.
Things don't get easier for the Cubbies this weekend, heading to Los Angeles to battle the NL West-leading Dodgers. Chicago sends out Wells on Friday, followed by Lilly on Saturday, then Ryan Dempster to wrap it up on Sunday.
From a trend standpoint, keep an eye on Friday's matchup, when the Dodgers send out lefty Randy Wolf to the mound. Chicago is 9-3-1 to the 'under' this season in night contests against left-handed starting pitchers.
The Cubs return home from their West Coast swing to host the Nationals and Mets beginning Tuesday night. There's still time remaining for the Cubs to make a late surge for the Wild Card, but Chicago has to find some consistency down the stretch if they want to play into October.
Mlb 8/22
Reply With Quote