Saturday's NFL preseason betting previews
By DAVID JONES
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)
Top pick Matthew Stafford (7-of-14 passing vs. Falcons last week) will start at QB after Duante Culpepper began last week's game under center. On the injury front, star wideout Calvin Johnson will be held out but is likely to return next week against the Colts.
After failing to score an offensive touchdown in their final six games of the 2008 season, the Browns were promptly blanked by Green Bay in their 2009 preseason opener. Derek Anderson is likely to start at quarterback after attempting just two passes last week. Brady Quinn (7-of-11 passing, 1 INT against Packers) will also see early action against the Lions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 34)
Like the Lions and Browns, the Bucs will be switching their starting quarterbacks this week. Byron Leftwich (6-of-14 passing against Titans last week) will begin the game at QB before Luke McCown gets his snaps under center. Top receiver Antonio Bryant won't be ready until the regular season but No.2 wideout Michael Clayton is back after missing last week's contest.
The Jags will be looking to get their first-team units more work Saturday. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew had only one carry in Monday night's matchup in Miami. Jacksonville will also take a close look at their reserve quarterbacks against Tampa Bay.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-3, 33.5)
The Panthers may once again be short-handed on offense. Wide receiver Steve Smith and running back Jonathan Stewart are still banged up after sitting out against the Giants last week. Head coach John Fox (18-11 preseason record) will be seeking a more efficient effort after the Panthers lost four fumbles Monday.
Chad Pennington and the first-team offense will get some more work against the Panthers. While backup QB Chad Henne impressed head coach Tony Sparano with a TD toss against Jacksonville, the Dolphins will be looking for a better performance from rookie Pat White (2-of-7 passing vs. Jaguars) Saturday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (-3, 33)
A rough summer got a little more difficult for Ben Roehtlisberger after he went down with a foot injury in the final practice session of training camp. He is unlikely to see action against the Redskins. No.2 QB Charlie Batch will be the likely starter after attempting just a pair of passes in the preseason opener against Arizona.
While it was just a preseason game, the Redskins woeful performance against Baltimore last week gained the attention of head coach Jim Zorn. The defense allowed 500 yards while the offense was blanked in the 23-0 defeat. This week, the starters will likely play into the second quarter. Albert Haynesworth and Clinton Portis are expected to make their 2009 preseason debuts after missing last week's contest.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (-3, 38.5)
These clubs have been practicing against each other this week in Houston and have had a few spirited scuffles. The Saints will give their starters some more playing time this week against the Texans. The offense will likely be without running back Reggie Bush and All-Pro lineman Jamaal Brown due to injuries.
Houston didn't escape the intense practices unscathed. Linebacker Cato June suffered a broken forearm in Thursday's scrimmage. The secondary is also short-handed. Starting corners Jacques Reeves (injury) and Dunta Robinson (contract dispute) will not be available on Saturday. At quarterback, Alex Brink is now the No.3 QB after Rex Grossman went down with an injury last week against the Chiefs.
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-3, 38)
Head coach Dick Jauron has indicated that his starters will play into the second quarter on Saturday. The club's no-huddle offense was effective in last week's preseason win over the Bears. Terrell Owens will miss his second straight game due to a sore toe.
First-round pick B.J. Raji is set to make his first preseason appearance on the defensive line on Saturday. Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm will continue to battle for the backup QB spot although Flynn appears to be the front-runner.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-2, 34.5)
After attempting just three passes in last week's preseason opener, Eli Manning will get a chance to develop some chemistry with his raw group of wide receivers. The secondary is still banged up. Starting corners Aaron Ross and Corey Webster are unlikely to play on Saturday after missing Monday's preseason opener.
Bears fans are hoping that their first look at QB Jay Cutler (5-of-10 passing, 1 INT against Bills) isn't a sign of things to come. Cutler will be aided by the return of RB Matt Forte on Saturday. He is expected to get at least a half-dozen carries in his preseason debut against the Giants.
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 34.5)
The 49ers defense could be in the head of Oakland starting QB JaMarcus Russell (6-of-9 passing vs. Cowboys last week) when these two squads hit the field Saturday. In a Wednesday morning scrimmage session between the two Bay Area squads, Russell was picked off three times. The backup quarterbacks will still gain most of the playing time in this one. Veteran Jeff Garcia is set to make his Raiders debut on Saturday.
San Francisco No.1 QB Shaun Hill played just a single series against the Broncos last week while backup Alex Smith (5-of-7 passing vs. Broncos) looked sharp in his bid to win the starting job. Smith will start Saturday. However, without rookie receiver Michael Crabtree (holdout) and free agent wideout Brandon Jones (injury), the offense is still a work in progress.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 37.5)
While LaDainian Tomlinson ran the ball in the preseason last week for the first time since 2005, the Chargers (49 passes, 21 rushes vs. Seahawks) were a pass-first club in their exhibition opener. Starting wide receiver Vincent Jackson will miss Saturday's game due to a finger injury.
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt (2-7 preseason record) is hoping that top draft pick Beanie Wells (ankle injury) can make his debut in the Cardinals backfield Saturday. Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre will continue their battle for the backup QB spot. Leinart (8-of-14 passing against Steelers) took the lead in the race as St. Pierre struggled against Pittsburgh.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 36.5)
Kyle Orton will try to rebound after firing three interceptions in his Broncos debut last week. Even though backup QB Chris Simms fired a pair of TD strikes in the game, Orton is still a clear No. 1 on the depth chart. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is unlikely to play due to a hip injury. The Broncos should get top draft pick Knowshon Moreno more involved this week after he gained 18 yards on three carries last week.
The Seahawks will add more snaps to the duties of Matt Hasselbeck and the first-team offense on Saturday. All-Pro lineman Walter Jones will likely miss the entire preseason after undergoing a minor surgical procedure on his knee this week. The defense is also banged up. All-Pro defensive back Marcus Trufant is questionable for the start of the regular season while top draft pick Aaron Curry is questionable for Saturday's matchup with Denver.
TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) - 8/22/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 8/22/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA (0 - 1) at MIAMI (1 - 0) - 8/22/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DETROIT (1 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 8/22/2009, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO (1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 0) - 8/22/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 8/22/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road lined games since 1993.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in August games since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS (1 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 1) - 8/22/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
OAKLAND (1 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) - 8/22/2009, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO (0 - 1) at ARIZONA (0 - 1) - 8/22/2009, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (0 - 1) at SEATTLE (1 - 0) - 8/22/2009, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in August games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1993.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1993.
DENVER is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
There are a handful of teams still trying to determine their starting quarterback for the 2009 season. Those QB competitions can serve as added motivation for players. And as any bettor knows, extra motivation in the preseason is a gold mine.
Here's a look at this week's games involving those teams:
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)
This is undoubtedly the most intriguing game on the board. Both teams are coming off awful seasons and have first year-coaches who are looking at decisions at quarterback that will impact their job and the team's long-term future.
Detroit's Jim Schwartz has a stud in top overall pick Matt Stafford but has said that the rookie will only be named the starter if he outplays his competition and shows that he is mentally ready. His competition is Daunte Culpepper, who clearly has the edge in experience but was part of last season's 0-16 mess.
Cleveland's Eric Mangini is looking at one-time hotshot Brady Quinn and former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson. Quinn is believed to have the inside track but could even things out with a poor performance. Anderson was 0-for-2 with a pick in the opener.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 34)
Plenty of eyes will be on Byron Leftwich, who is trying to win Tampa Bay's starting quarterback job and is returning to where he made a name for himself as a QB before being supplanted by David Garrard.
Most believe the quarterback battle is between Leftwich and Luke McCown. Leftwich has the clear edge in experience but McCown is less mistake-prone and may manage the game better. Still in the mix, however, is rookie Josh Freeman, who has better long-term prospects than either Leftwich or McCown and was sharp in the opener.
Bucs first-year coach Raheem Morris has said he will make his decision before Tampa Bay's next preseason game. He may have some trouble determining which quarterback is best because wide receivers Michael Clayton and Kelly Campbell both are doubtful with injuries.
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 34.5)
The 49ers started Shaun Hill in their preseason opener and have given every indication that he has the edge in his battle with Alex Smith. But coach Mike Singletary named Smith the starter for the 49ers' matchup with their Bay area rivals.
Last week, both quarterbacks directed the team to points. Hill looked more consistent, while Smith has the better arm.
San Francisco won five of its final seven games under Hill last season. Smith has had three surgeries in the last two years on his right shoulder but says his arm is feeling strong.
On the other side of the field, JaMarcus Russell is Tom Cable's choice as starter. But veteran Jeff Garcia will play and could make things interesting if he gets fired up to face his former team and Russell displays the inconsistency he has shown throughout his career.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 32.5)
Rookie Mark Sanchez seems to be on the fast track to the starting job - if you believe the tabloids, who have fallen in love with him after one solid game. But Kellen Clemens was also sharp in last week's preseason opener and should not be counted out.
There could be a lot of emotion swirling as Jets coach Rex Ryan, who has been shooting his mouth off since taking the job, returns to Baltimore, where he built a powerhouse defense that could give both Sanchez and Clemens fits depending on how long the starters play.
The Vikings grabbed most of the headlines this week with the expected but still interesting Brett Favre signing. Minnesota will be a team to watch in the preseason and the Favre signing will create a heated battle among the remaining quarterbacks on the team. Preseason NFL games are difficult to handicap but one favorable situation is when a team has quarterbacks battling for a job, which can often increase that team’s offensive production and open up the playbook a bit to challenge the involved players.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota will likely be a bit overvalued the rest of the preseason but the Vikings are in serious conundrum with regards to the rest of their quarterbacks. Sage Rosenfels was the consensus winner in the preseason opener going 10-13 and with a serious financial commitment made to Rosenfels he will remain the leader for the back-up spot behind Favre. Tavaris Jackson is 10-9 as a starter for Minnesota but he has not been able to escape constant criticism and he may become the most expendable. J. D. Booty has developed into a promising player as well but keeping four quarterbacks is not an ideal situation. Jackson is a bit more expensive that Booty in terms of his contract but not a big enough gap to be a decision-maker and neither Jackson or Booty would likely clear waivers or bring anything significant in a trade as teams know the tough position that the Vikings are in.
New York Jets
In New York it seems to be a foregone conclusion that top pick Mark Sanchez will win the job as the starter for the Jets. New Coach Rex Ryan saw first hand that a rookie can have success in Baltimore last season and Sanchez was sharp in his preseason debut including a 48-yard bomb on his first play. Kellen Clemens completed all four of his passes but didn’t do anything to impress on the coaches that he should be the guy rather than letting Sanchez take over right away. Sanchez is slated to start the next game and this should be an interesting battle, particularly in Clemens can put together a great performance at some point and Sanchez shows his youth with sloppy play or a limited grasp on the playbook. The Jets have a brutally tough early season schedule so there could be some logic in starting Clemens in his fourth year in the league and waiting for struggles or a more favorable match-up to bring in Sanchez.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has a tough battle going on for the starting spot as well as former #1 pick Alex Smith has been healthy and motivated in camp but Shaun Hill has a much more impressive resume in real game situations and led the 49ers on a strong late season surge last year. Hill completed both of his passes and also had a nice scramble on a scoring drive in limited action while Smith did have a touchdown pass. Neither quarterback really stood out as Hill was sacked twice and the 49ers benefited from great field position in the game. Damon Huard likely will not get consideration for a starting role as a long-time back-up but for a team that has a lot of solid pieces in place in other areas a veteran like Huard could get the job done if Hill and Smith do not play well.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns failed to score in their opening preseason game and Brady Quinn played well enough in his time on the field. He should have had a touchdown pass but Braylon Edwards had a drop in the end zone on a well thrown ball and Quinn then had an interception. Derek Anderson led the Browns to their surprise season in 2007 but he looked terrible in limited action in week one, having his only non-incomplete pass go for an interception. Quinn has to be considered the favorite with the fans but Anderson still has more wins under his belt as a NFL starter. Quinn only played three games last season and though he showed promise he also has been injury prone.
Detroit Lions
Top draft pick Matthew Stafford threw an interception for a touchdown in his debut for the Lions but he also made some excellent plays. Smart money is on veteran Daunte Culpepper to be the opening week starter however as Detroit wants to be cautious with Stafford and coming off a 0-16 season this is a team that needs to find a way to get in the win column sooner rather than later just to end the streak. Culpepper was efficient in the preseason game against the Falcons and he played well at times in last year’s lost season. Drew Stanton also has some experience for the Lions but should project as the number three starter no matter how things go in the preseason.
Denver Broncos
Kyle Orton was named the starter by rookie head coach Josh McDaniels in Denver but given the awkward start that McDaniels has had he might be more willing to cave into media pressure and put more weight on the preseason than a veteran coach in a more stable situation would. A veteran coach would not think twice about doubting his starter but Orton’s hold on the top spot could be more tenuous then McDaniels leads on as there will be pressure to win after he drove the popular Jay Cutler out of town. Orton had three interceptions in his debut for the Broncos and back-up Chris Simms threw for 142 yards with two touchdowns to get the Broncos back in the game. If Orton fails on the big stage with Cutler and the Bears in town in week three of the preseason, Simms may get serious consideration as he has had past success as a starter with Tampa Bay and an NFL pedigree.
So you’re a huge football fan. You’ve got a new 46” flat screen HDTV and a backup 42” flat screen HDTV to boot. Your team jersey’s been washed for the first time since last season’s playoffs, you finally found that team hat that the chicks seem to dig so much (or so you think), your team blanket no longer smells of beer and your coffee mug has been scraped of old, sour milk and your team tailgate gear (team flask, four-piece BBQ set, cooler and custom made grill) is all ready to go.
But you’re saving it all for the regular season.
You’re not even sure you want to watch any preseason games right now and you’re starting to question the value of betting on NFL preseason games.
The thing is – if you bet on the NFL now you may actually find yourself ahead of the game before the regular season starts – and before everyone else jumps on the NFL betting bandwagon. Let me explain…
Hey folks, Richard Gardner here – I’m the bookmaker at Bodog with the first of many weekly articles on tips and trends that I believe will help you place smarter bets and score bigger payouts.
So let’s start with NFL preseason betting.
I know that some bettors cringe at the thought of watching these games, let alone bet on them. They’re quick to think that these preseason teams aren’t really putting in the effort and as a result their games don’t matter.
As a bookmaker I can tell you that how the public is leaning in these games rarely matters because the handle is fairly low. In fact, we see the majority of the handle coming in day of the game. And so far this preseason, it has become rather apparent that bettors are leaning toward the underdogs.
But hang on a second here because this can also be somewhat misleading, as teams like the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys have been underdogs so far in exhibition games, and a team such as the Pats might not be in that position during the regular season.
Then along comes Tom Brady, whose strong showing in his first game back since last year’s season ending injury now has bettors jumping on the Pats (-7) for this week’s preseason game at home against the Bengals. Brady is expected to play significant minutes, while Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer won’t play in the game.
As far as Friday’s Titans at Cowboys game goes, I fully expect to see an entirely different Dallas team this week than the one we saw in that ugly loss to Oakland last week. It’ll be the Cowboys’ first in their new $1.2 billion stadium and you can be sure that Jerry Jones will want his team to put up a good showing. (Have you SEEN the price of a ticket in Dallas?!) We haven’t seen a huge uptick on Dallas bets yet, mind you.
On a different yet somewhat related note, preseason games don’t matter much to the players, either; unless you’re a player who’s fighting for a roster spot – or if you’re a member of the Detroit Lions. Looking back at last year’s disastrous 0-16 season these guys are at a point where they need to build some sort of confidence heading into the regular season – not only within the team itself but also with their fans. (Well, the Lions did beat the Falcons last week but were actually three-point favorites, so perhaps we bookmakers also overvalued emotion.)
Still, I’m looking for many late bettors to jump on Detroit +3 at Cleveland this week. We usually set most preseason NFL spreads close to three points, meaning that the winner usually covers even if that wasn’t the case for Detroit last week.
You may be wondering if NFL preseason matters to me – the bookmaker. My quick answer? Absolutely. My long-winded answer? As the bookmaker at Bodog I tend to look more at depth charts early in the preseason. The only time I consider a starting lineups’ value would be prior to a team’s second-to-last game, which is when the starters generally play the full first half on both sides of the ball. So, yes. Preseason football matters.
Nfl 8/22
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