College football preview: The MAC breeds BCS busters
By BEN BURNS - To be successful requires both hard work and passion
We’ve got less than two weeks to prepare for the college football season.
This week, we break down the MAC, a conference that is changing and one known for pulling off major upsets.
A Toledo team that finished 3-9 went into Michigan last season and won.
Bowling Green opened the year by winning at Pittsburgh.
Who’s got upset potential this year?
MAC Power Rankings
(ATS numbers are for last three years)
Central Michigan Chippewas
ATS: 23-14-2 (Home: 11-3. Away: 9-10-2)
The Chippewas are the pick to the win the MAC by almost everyone. Ten returning defensive starters and prolific senior quarterback Dan LeFevour are the reasons why.
This program turned the corner in 2005. It had been on a nice ATS run, especially at home. But oddsmakers caught up to them last season. Central Michigan finished at 5-7 against the number, its first losing ATS season mark in three years.
Don’t be surprised if Buffalo doesn’t get off to a crisp start. Head coach Turner Gill hired new offensive and defensive coordinators in the offseason. The Bulls also are breaking in a sophomore quarterback behind a line with just two returning starters.
Buffalo does have two of the conference’s best playmakers in running back James Starks and wide receiver Naaman Roosevelt and what Gill says is the best defense he’s had.
Even if they start slow, the Bulls will be in the mix for the MAC East title.
Frank Solich’s team couldn’t catch a break last season. The Bobcats were plagued by injuries and turnovers. They were 112th in turnover margin and finished 4-8 straight up.
But a closer look reveals a team that managed to stay in games despite the turnovers and injuries. They went 7-4 ATS.
Fourteen starters, including almost every skill position, return from the scrappy Bobcats. There should be some value betting on Ohio this year. Solich has posted three straight ATS winning seasons.
Western Michigan Broncos
ATS: 16-18-2 (Home: 6-6-1. Away: 8-10-1)
The Broncos are tied with Bowling Green for the fewest returning starters in the MAC. But the ones they do have coming back are good, including senior quarterback Tim Hiller, 1,000-yard rusher Brandon Rush and all-conference linebacker Austin Pritchard.
This team could surprise. New coach Tim Beckman inherits 16 returning starters to begin his Toledo tenure. Senior quarterback Aaron Opelt heads into his fourth year as the Rockets’ starter, after passing for more than 2,100 yards last season. Opelt has his top receivers, top two rushers and all five starting offensive linemen back.
Bonus note: The Rockets’ have one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the nation. Toledo is 31-15 ATS at the Glass Bowl since 2000.
The Eagles have been the MAC’s worst team for three years running. Enter former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English, who has 17 returning starters, including versatile senior quarterback Andy Schmitt to turn things around at EMU.
The Eagles upset Central Michigan to end last season. They’re on the rise in the MAC.
Bonus note: Since 1999, the Eagles are 6-20 ATS in non-conference play.
The Huskies have already lost two defensive linemen for the season. That’s especially painful on a defense that returns just four starters.
Bonus note: The Huskies are 1-9 ATS as home favorite the past three seasons.
Akron Zips
ATS: 16-19-1 (Home: 7-6. Away: 8-10-1)
This program appeared to have peaked with 2005’s Motor City Bowl berth. Since then, it’s been downhill for coach J.D. Brookhart and the Zips, who are 7-16-1 ATS against conference competition the last three seasons.
Bowling Green Falcons
ATS: 18-18 (Home: 3-10. Away: 13-6)
In the past, hiring Tennessee’s offensive coordinator as your head coach might have been exciting. But anyone who saw Clawson’s offense during his one miserable season (last year) in Tennessee knows otherwise.
Clawson inherits just 10 returning starters, only three on defense.
It’s probably a good idea to take a wait-and-see approach with the Falcons.
Ball State Cardinals
ATS: 23-13 (Home: 8-6. Away: 15-5)
Why would coach Brady Hoke leave Ball State for San Diego State if the Cardinals were capable of building off of last year’s success?
Offensive coordinator Stan Parrish was promoted to take over for Hoke. The 62 year old has a career head coaching record of 2-31-1 in stops at Marshall and Kansas State.
Only one starter on the offensive line returns to block for starting quarterback Kelly Page, a redshirt freshman that had the “deer in headlights look,” according to Parrish after a mid-August scrimmage.
Fade the Cardinals.
Kent State Golden Flashes
ATS: 13-21 (Home: 4-8. Away: 9-10)
The headline on the Kent (OH) Record Pub’s website said, “Poor play on KSU’s O-line raises serious flags in scrimmage.”
Ex-Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Haywood takes over the Redhawks, who hit rock bottom last year, going 2-10.
The offense has not adjusted smoothly to Haywood’s scheme. Scrimmage reports suggest the defense has been dominating. That’s a defense with only five returning starters.
Haywood might get things turned around eventually, but not this year.
NCAAF Top 5: Teams that exceed early expectations
By DAVID PAYNE
When it comes to creatures of habit, college football coaches take the cake.
Some coaches consistently have their teams playing their best football right out of the gates. Others prefer to have their team peak later in the season.
Knowing who’s who can make you money.
These five programs frequently exceed oddsmakers’ expectations in September:
Vanderbilt Commodores
The Commodores are underrated to start every season. Under coach Bobby Johnson, they are 15-6-1 against the number in September.
Vandy returns 17 starters from last year’s bowl team but is picked by most to finish fifth in the SEC East.
To start the season, when most everyone is healthy, the Commodores can field a team that is competitive in the SEC and superior to most non-BCS squads.
But the school’s tough academic requirements take a toll on the team’s depth. As the season progresses and the bumps and bruises add up, Vanderbilt suffers a significant drop off when it goes to its bench.
September games of note: at LSU, Sept. 12; vs. Mississippi State, Sept. 19; at Rice, Sept. 26.
Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS in September in Mark Mangino’s seven seasons.
They’ve made a habit of clobbering inferior MAC, C-USA and Sun Belt teams and are 12-5 ATS against non-conference competition since 2004.
September games to note: at UTEP, Sept. 12; vs. Duke, Sept. 19; vs. Southern Miss, Sept. 26.
South Florida Bulls
Since moving up to Division-I in 2001, the Bulls are 14-7 ATS under coach Jim Leavitt in September.
Leavitt has done an especially good job preparing his team for early games against ranked teams. South Florida owns straight up and ATS wins over West Virginia, Auburn and North Carolina in the past three years.
September game to note: at Florida State, Sept. 26.
Air Force Falcons
The Falcons’ 23-10 ATS mark in September is the best in the FBS over the last 10 seasons. Coach Troy Calhoun has continued that tradition. He is 5-2 ATS in September heading into his third season.
The Falcons have their best two offensive weapons back in quarterback Tim Jefferson and running back Asher Clark.
Calhoun’s latest version of the Air Force spread option is always tough to prepare for, but especially early in the season.
Early games of note: at Minnesota, Sept. 12; at New Mexico, Sept. 19; vs. San Diego State, Sept. 26.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Throughout his 23-year career at Virginia Tech, Frank Beamer’s teams have always been well prepared. In the last 10 seasons, the Hokies are 21-13 ATS in September.
Coming out of the gates strong this year would be especially impressive this season. Not only is star running back Darren Evans out for the year with an ACL injury but two more Hokies running backs have been battling injuries and missed practice time this week.
Good luck facing Alabama (-5.5) with a fourth-string running back.
September games to note: vs. Alabama, Sept. 5, in Atlanta; vs. Marshall, Sept. 12; vs. Nebraska, Sept. 19; vs. Miami, Sept 26.
Can you remember the last team to win the Pac-10 outright before Pete Carroll put his thumb on the league? You’d be a winner if you had said it was the 2001 Oregon Ducks. Southern California has had at least a share of the conference championship in the last seven years.
Oh sure, we’ve have our occasional upstarts come in and grab a piece of the title in that time. But teams like Washington State, California and Arizona State have never mounted much of a challenge to the Trojans’ place on the throne.
What Carroll has done in Los Angeles is truly impressive when you think about it. This team had just two winning seasons in the five years before Carroll arrived in 2001. Since then, the Trojans have ran roughshod over the rest of the Pac-10 with a 57-10 straight up record.
Betting shops aren’t expecting more of the same this season. Sportsbook.com has listed the Men of Troy at minus-300 (risk $300 to win $100) to win the league. The Gators are the only other team that comes close to that kind of number at minus-250 to win the SEC.
If you’re looking for someone from our Editorial staff to stick there neck out and pick someone other than USC, then you’ll be disappointed. Everyone is in agreement that the Trojans are going to roll to their eighth straight conference title.
It’s awful hard not to like Southern Cal when you have an offense that averaged 37.5 points per game last season. A lot is no doubt going to be made of the fact that they had a veteran of the system in Mark Sanchez running the offense. But USC never has a bare cupboard.
“From Carson Palmer to Matt Leinart to Mark Sanchez, the Trojans have continued to maintain their quarterback position, with Aaron Corp taking the helm this season,” says Kevin Rogers.
Reports out of the Trojans’ camp say that Corp is ready to run this offense. He has had some issues with his left knee though, which could lead to Mitch Mustain getting some playing time. Regardless of who starts, they’ll have an offensive line with four returning starters from a year ago. And each lineman projected to be No. 1 on the depth chart averages 286 pounds apiece.
Chris David also believes USC will win the conference, but is concerned with how they’ll stop the opposition. “Carroll dominated the Pac 10 with defense (9.0 PPG) last year and even though Southern California usually reloads, this unit will need to rebuild this season after losing eight players to the NFL.”
“The Trojans aren’t going to beat you with their defense, rather the offense.” David concludes, “I expect a lot of shootouts this year and would lean towards ‘over’ plays when seeing USC. An unbeaten season could be a tough task with a road trip to Ohio State early in the year, but a share of the conference crown is doable.”
Our experts are unanimous on who will win the conference this season, picking a sleeper hasn’t given us a solid majority.
Kevin Rogers and I are both hitching a ride on the Stanford bandwagon for 2009.
“Jim Harbaugh is slowly making Stanford football relevant again, winning five games this past season,” says Rogers. I’d agree with you if you think that five wins isn’t a lot. But you have to remember that Harbaugh took over a program that went 1-11 in 2006. Since running the squad, they’ve won four games in ’07 and the aforementioned five of a year ago.
Brian Edwards has an affinity for Oregon State to make some more noise this year with the talent in its backfield. “I think Jacquizz Rodgers is the best RB in the country and if/when healthy, he gives the Beavers a chance every Saturday.”
Edwards also believes that the Beavers can make this happen through the air as well. “Provided Lyle Moevao continues to improve at QB, OSU’s offense should put up big numbers thanks to not only Jacquizz, but his brother James, one of the league’s premier wideouts. The 'D' has some holes to fill but the offense will keep this team in the conference race.”
Chris David isn’t as keen on Oregon State this year. “The Beavers made some noise last year by knocking off then No. 1 USC and almost shocking Utah on the road. OSU had a nice season and it does have some talented offensive players returning. However, the defense is going to be tested early and often in 2009. Only three starters return and last year’s unit was torched when they faced high quality opponents (Penn State -45, Oregon -65). I believe the Pac 10 will be top-heavy with offense this season and the Beavers’ defense will be exposed. Plus, three road trips to Los Angeles, Berkley and Eugene don’t look promising for Mike Riley’s troops either.”
While David isn’t sold on the Beavers, he is buying into what’s happening with Arizona as they start a new face under center. “Replacing Willie Tuitama as quarterback will be tough to do but the rest of the pieces are in place offensively. The defense is sound and Mike Stoops finally notched a winning campaign and bowl victory in 2008. Last year, the Wildcats’ five losses were by a combined 28 points. It’s going to be a tough this season with six contests on the road and a new signal caller, but yet a few of those games appear to be winnable.”
Brian Edwards doesn’t agree with David here, either. He believes the Wildcats are your best bet to fade in 2009. “With 'Zona losing veteran Willie Tuitama, the QB situation is obviously in a state of flux. Until a QB establishes himself, defenses will stack the box to stop stud RB Nic Grigsby. I also have big questions about the defense. I think Mike Stoops' team is going to lose at least four road games, probably five, and he could be back on the hot seat after earning a reprieve with last season's bowl-game win over BYU.”
It’s surprising that nobody else took Washington State as their fade for the Pac 10. The Cougars actually have a chance to be worse than the 2-10, which is pretty pathetic. Their offense was next-to-last nationally in total offense last season by averaging 241.1 yards per game. Wazzu’s defense returns only five starters. That might be a good thing though since they allowed 570 points last year, which is the most ever given up in the history of the FBS. The Cougs’ schedule doesn’t show a single winnable game. If I had to pick one, it would be at home against Southern Methodist on Sept. 19 and that’s a stretch.
College football preview 8/22
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