Ben Burns 8/21
Ben Burns
Game: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Time: 8/21/2009 7:35:00 PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays Reason: I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY.
The Rays were upset as large favorites yesterday. They're still a solid 4-1 their last five games though and they're still an outstanding 40-20 at home on the season. On the other hand, despite yesterday's victory, the Rangers are 1-2 their last three games. Additionally, they're just 27-28 on the road. While the Rangers did sweep the Rays at Texas in a 3-game set over the July 4th long weekend, they're an ugly 2-8 their last 10 trips to Tampa and just 4-12 their last 16 visits here. I expect the revenge-minded Rays to have the advantage once again for tonight's series opener. Kazmir is a much better pitcher than his current stats indicate. The Rangers can attest to that. Indeed, Kazmir is 4-1 with an excellent 2.06 ERA in eight starts against the Rangers. He limited them to two earned runs or fewer in each of those games with the Rays going a profitable 7-1 (+5.9). It's also worth noting that Kazmir is 3-0 with a solid 3.26 ERA in his last three home outings. The Rays are 5-0 his last five home starts and 15-5 his last 20 home starts. Conversely, the Rangers are just 1-3 (-1.3) in Nippert's four road starts, including 0-3 the last three. During that 4-game stretch, Nippert has gone 0-1 with a poor 5.40 ERA, averaging less than five innings per start. Nippert also got rocked in his lone start vs. the Rays. That came last season and also happened to come against Kazmir. Kazmir was solid. Nippert was not. In fact, he got hammered for seven runs in just four innings. Tampa won by a score of 7-4. The Rays have fared very well as home favorites in this range. Behind another strong effort from Kazmir, look for them to start this series with a victory.
*9 Personal Favorite
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Originally Posted by G-men
