[G-men]

Wunderdog

NFL

Game: Atlanta at St. Louis (Friday 8/21 8:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -110

The Rams new head coach Steve Spagnuolo showed a desire to create a winning culture as he won his first NFLX game on the road with a late fourth-quarter TD. The Falcons dropped their opener, allowing 454 yards to the lowly Lions - truly an indication that, coming off a playoffs year, there is more evaluating going on in Atlanta than desire to win. Second-year Coach Mike Smith played things differently a year ago, establishing a winning attitude, covering three of four. How different is the approach this season? Consider the fact that Atlanta allowed three TDs in the entire preseason under then first-year coach Smith, while they allowed three in week one to the Lions. The Rams are in the role under a first year head coach and playing at home, so he will want to show the fans that there is some meaningful football to be played in St. Louis this season. Over the last eight years, they have been premier at home, playing to an 11-5 mark in their home preseason games and I look for the Rams to cover here. I also like the UNDER here as games involving home dogs in certain situations have hit at a 70% UNDER mark including 10-4 UNDER the past three seasons.


Game: Kansas City at Minnesota (Friday 8/21 8:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +3 (+100) (risk 2 to win 2)

Todd Haley, newly appointed head coach for the Chiefs, will be looking to getting his first win under his belt after dropping the opener to Gary Kubiak's Houston Texans, who are now winning 61.5% of their preseason games under Kubiak. The Vikings made a splash this week (sigh) by signing Brett Favre to a two-year $25 million contract, and the speculation is that they will be cutting Tarvaris Jackson free. That will leave them with a QB dilemma in this one as Favre is not ready to be taking snaps, and even if he does, he will not be very effective. The QB rotation for the Vikings is in trouble in this one. This definitely looks like a good spot for Haley to get win number one, so I'll go with the Chiefs here.


Game: Tennessee at Dallas (Friday 8/21 8:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 38 -110

Both of these coaches, Wade Phillips of the Cowboys and Jeff Fisher of the Titans, have shown a penchant for winning in the preseason as they both have winning records with a combined record of 40-30. It is unusual to see teams put up 20 points or more in an NFLX game, but when you look at what Dallas has done under Wade Phillips, there is obviously a different approach. The Cowboys have played 10 preseason home games under Phillips, avareaging 21.2 ppg. The Titans under Fisher have taken a similar approach as the Fisher-led Titans have scored 20+ in eight of their last eleven preseason games. This one has the makings of a 40+ game, and I will go with the over here.

[G-men]

Wunderdog

Horses

SARATOGA Race #1 at 1:00 PM Eastern

Top pick: #5 (DOREMIFASOLLATIDO) - Daughter of "Bernstein" finished a very game second here on August 3 to a wire-to-wire winner ("Dance Gal Dance") in the "Fleet Indian" stakes at this seven-furlong trip. Strong effort need only be repeated to win this. One of a pair from trainer Jimmy Jerkens and they'll race uncoupled.
2nd pick: #7 (Olde Glamour) - Filly showed good early speed in the "Test Stakes" (G1) last out at this distance before weakening. Moves back in with fellow state-breds and her record this year facing them is outstsnding (9-3-6-0).
3rd pick: #4 (Ouchy Night) - Talented speed/stalker has been freshened-up for the past two months and her work pattern suggests that she's ready. Threat from just off the lead.
4th pick: #2 (Karakorum Fugitive) - Blinkers wiil go on the other entrant trained by Jimmy Jerkens as he tries to get some early interest out of her. Latest work is encouraging.

[bill2266]

thanks for the plays

[G-men]

Wunderdog

Game: Milwaukee at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Washington +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)

The Brewers lost Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia from last year's playoff team, but didn't skip a beat and surprised early by leading the NL Central. Reality has dealt a blow to those early-season hopes and surprises, and the Brew Crew now finds themselves back to reality. That 25-14 start has turned into a terrible 33-48 mark in their last 81, and recently really falling off the cliff by losing four straight, and just 16-27 in their last 43. That includes just 8-18 in their last 26 on the road. That puts the suddenly hot Nationals in prime position as a dog at home here, as the Nats are 15-10 in their last 25, but they are also 14-7 in their last 21 against a team with a losing record. I'll go with the Nats to win this one.


Game: Milwaukee at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)

Pick: 4 units on Washington +1.5 runs -150 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.7)

There has been a distinct role reversal for these teams over the last month. The Brewers, once 25-14, have fallen fast and hard and are now just 33-48 in their last 81, and 16-27 in their last 43, including 8-18 on the road. The Nats have been plenty hot at home, and when you consider them on the +1.5 runline, they would be 10-1 in their last 11 at home. That is troublesome to a Brewer team that appears to have cashed it in, and has dropped four straight. I'll go with Washington on the runline in this one.


Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)

Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -145 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.8)

The Dodgers have been the team to beat all season in the NL West. While the Cubs, expected to do big things, have found the road to the 2009 playoffs full of land mines. The Cubs used a big-time 16-6 stretch to push themselves over .500, but have gone back to struggling once again, as they are just 4-10 since. The offense continues to be a problem, and they have scored three runs or less in nine of the 14 games. Last night's loss to the Dodgers moved the Cubs to 10 games under .500 on the road, and now 14-37 in their last 51 as a dog, and have dropped six straight to teams with a winning record. The Dodgers meanwhile, continue to feast at home where they are now 62-27 in their last 89 as a home chalk. The Cubs had huge revenge motive for the playoff sweep at the hands of the Dodgers last year, and couldn't get it done. That makes the task here even more difficult. The Dodgers get the call.


Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:15 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs +145 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)

The Dodgers are churning out wins as a home chalk at the rate of 70% winners. Randy Wolf on regular four days rest has turned in a stellar 21-7 mark for the Dodgers in his last 28 starts. The Cubs' big failures have come against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less, as they are just 5-18 in their last 23 against top pitchers. And as good as Wells has been, he can't turn the tide as the Cubs are 0-4 with him on the mound as a dog. The Cubs' bats have been quiet on the road, and in their last 15 road losses, 14 of the 15 have been by two runs or more. I also like the Dodgers on the runline here.