Tennessee (2-0 SU and ATS) at Dallas (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys, coming off a blowout loss in their exhibition opener, aim to rebound as they christen their palatial new stadium against the Titans.
Dallas was dealt a 31-10 pounding Aug. 13 at Oakland, getting outscored 21-3 in the second half. Quarterback Tony Romo, who played just two possessions last week but led a touchdown drive that gave the Cowboys a 7-3 lead, will likely see much more time this week. Though coach Wade Phillips was non-committal, starters are expected to play through two quarters and possibly into the second half. Veteran QB Jon Kitna will relieve Romo, and rookies Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter could also see some action late.
Tennessee, coming off a 27-20 home win over Tampa Bay last week laying 4½ points, is already playing its third preseason contest of the year after opening with a 21-18 win over Buffalo in the Hall of Fame Game. QB Kerry Collins, who threw two picks last week while playing four series, will get the start, and first-teamers are expected to play well into the second quarter and perhaps the entire first half. Vince Young, who was a solid 9 of 14 for 131 yards and a TD last week, will follow Collins, and veteran Patrick Ramsey and rookie Alex Mortensen could see some time, as well.
The Cowboys are 3-6 ATS (4-5 SU) in preseason play since coach Wade Phillips took over in 2007, failing to cash in six of the last seven. However, Dallas is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four August home games. In fact, dating to 2004, Dallas is 9-0-1 SU and 7-3 ATS as a preseason host.
The Titans are now on an 8-2 SU roll in preseason play since 2007, though they are just 5-4-1 ATS. Tennessee split its two road games last August, at Atlanta and Green Bay, but went 0-2 ATS, and they are 5-4-1 ATS in true exhibition roadies dating to 2004.
The over has hit in six of Dallas’ last eight preseason starts and is on a 7-2 tear for Tennessee in exhibition play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
Kansas City (0-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Brett Favre era begins in earnest for the Vikings when they play their preseason home opener, welcoming the Chiefs to the Metrodome.
Minnesota is coming off a 13-3 road victory as a three-point chalk against Indianapolis last Friday. QB Sage Rosenfels started and led a pair of scoring drives in just over a quarter of that contest. However, Favre will get the nod tonight just days after being signed, though the 39-year-old vet is only expected to play a couple of series at most. Tarvaris Jackson, slated to start before the Favre acquisition, will relieve the future Hall of Famer, and John David Booty will finish out the game. Rosenfels is expected to sit out while resting an ankle injury.
Kansas City lost to Houston 16-10 last Saturday as a 2½-point home favorite in new coach Todd Haley’s debut. QB Matt Cassel, who played three series in the driving rain last week, will again get the nod to start and will likely play the entire first half, followed by Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen.
The Vikings are 8-5 ATS (6-6-1 SU) in preseason play under coach Brad Childress, who took over in 2006. They dropped both home exhibition tilts last year (1-1 ATS), but they are 6-4 SU and ATS in the preseason at the dome dating to 2004.
The Chiefs are on a 1-4 ATS slide in preseason play and have had little success in August over the past few years, going 5-16 SU and 4-17 ATS since 2004. The numbers are even worse on the highway since 2004, with K.C. going a paltry 1-9 SU and ATS. The Chiefs are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 preseason tilts as an underdog.
Minnesota is on a 3-0 “under” run in the preseason, and Kansas City’s loss last week fell far short of the 38-point posted price, ending a 3-1 exhibition “over” surge for the Chiefs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
Atlanta (0-1, 1-0 ATS) at St. Louis (1-0 SU and ATS)
New coach Steve Spagnuolo makes his home debut with the Rams when they take on the Falcons at the Edward Jones Dome.
St. Louis scored a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter last Friday to get the win and cover in a 23-20 victory as a three-point road underdog against the Jets. Starting QB Marc Bulger won’t be in the lineup this week after breaking the pinkie on his throwing hand, so veteran Kyle Boller will start and likely play the entire first half, Spagnuolo said, followed by Brock Berlin and rookie Keith Null.
Atlanta gave up a field goal as time expired in a 27-26 loss at Detroit on Saturday, but still covered as a three-point pup. Second-year coach Mike Smith said QB Matt Ryan and the rest of the starters will go 12 to 18 plays tonight – a little longer than last week – but Smith wouldn’t divulge the rest of his QB rotation. Last week, Chris Redman relieved Ryan and D.J. Shockley came on after the half and played into the fourth quarter, followed by rookie John Parker Wilson.
The Rams have cashed in their last three preseason contests (2-1 SU), and they are 7-3 SU the past five years in home exhibition affairs (5-5 ATS). With Bulger out, the Rams are once again a ‘dog in this contest, a role in which they’ve gone just 4-7 ATS dating to the 2004 preseason campaign, including last week’s cover at New York.
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in August under Smith, including a 3-0 ATS mark on the highway after last week’s cover in Detroit. Atlanta, which hasn’t had a losing preseason in any of the past four summers, is 11-7 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in preseason play since 2005.
The under has hit in St. Louis’ last three home exhibition contests, and the under for Atlanta was on a 3-0 uptick and a 5-2 overall run before last week’s game at Detroit soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (76-45) at Boston (69-51)
The red-hot Yankees, sporting the best record in baseball, trot out southpaw Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) for the opener of a three-game weekend set at Fenway Park against the archrival Red Sox, who are expected to counter with right-hander Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22).
New York snapped a two-game hiccup by winning two in a row to close out a three-game set at Oakland, capped by a 3-2 victory Wednesday night. The Yankees are on a 14-3 tear in their last 17 games and are on further streaks of 8-2 on the road, 23-7 inside the A.L. East, 14-5 in series openers and 35-17 against winning teams.
Boston completed a three-game sweep at Toronto with an 8-1 rout Thursday night, bolstered by two J.D. Drew home runs in back-to-back at-bats. The Sox are on upswings of 22-8 at home following a road trip of seven or more days, 37-16 overall at Fenway and 36-17 in series openers, but they’re still on slides of 3-6 in division tilts and 1-10 as an underdog.
The Red Sox won the first eight clashes this season between these rivals and had won nine in a row overall before New York posted a four-game home sweep earlier this month. The Yankees shut out Boston twice in that series and outscored the Sox by a combined 25-8 total. However, Boston is still 7-0 in the last seven Fenway meetings between these two.
The Yankees have won three in a row behind Pettitte, with the lefty allowing just three runs over 19 2/3 innings in that stretch, for a 1.37 ERA. Last Friday at Seattle, he allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out 10 in six innings of a 4-2 victory, though he got a no-decision. Pettitte is 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 11 road starts this year, and he’s a solid 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 34 career appearances (32 starts) against Boston, throwing seven shutout innings in a 5-2 home win Aug. 9.
New York is on rolls behind Pettitte of 17-8 overall, 5-0 on Friday, 6-1 in series openers, 6-2 on the road and 42-20 in division play.
The Red Sox have lost in seven of Penny’s last nine outings, including a 7-2 setback at Texas on Saturday, in which he allowed four runs on eight hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. Penny has allowed four runs or more four times in his last nine starts. The righty is 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 12 home starts this season, and he’s 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yanks. In his only outing this year against New York, he threw six shutout innings in a 4-3 home win June 11.
Boston is 6-2 in its last eight series openers behind Penny, but the Sox are on a 2-5 slide with the 31-year-old facing winning teams.
The under for New York is on surges of 9-4 overall, 5-1 in the A.L. East and 7-2-2 after a day off, and with Pettitte throwing, the under is on additional rolls of 40-16-2 overall, 21-6-1 on the road and 20-8-2 inside the division. Likewise, the under for Boston is on stretches of 4-1 in division play, 8-2 at home against lefties and 4-1 behind Penny in division contests, although the total has gone high in seven of the Sox’s last eight home games.
Finally, the over is 5-1 in Pettitte’s last six starts against the Sox, but overall, under is on runs of 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes between these teams and 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings at Fenway Park.
The Chicago Cubs finally found the ball in their last game with the San Diego Padres Wednesday. The Cubbies scored just four runs in their first two games at Petco Park.
According to the Chicago Tribune, Chicago has a 3-13 record in stadiums with big outfields. Now the team continues its West Coast tour in Los Angeles where it will take to the turf at Dodger Stadium. The home of the Dodgers ranks fifth among pitchers' park in the majors with a park factor of 0.887 (a rating over 1.000 is considered a hitter’s park).
"Wrigley Field is a smaller ball park that plays to our scheme of things a lot better," Cubs manager Lou Piniella told reporters, adding the Cubs are "built for power."
"You need athleticism, you need more stolen bases," Piniella said. "I think we're last in the league in stolen bases.
"Look, our team has to hit, and when we don't hit, we look flatter."
Heading into Thursday’s series opener, Los Angeles has a 28-29-4 over/under at home while Chicago carries a 25-33-3 over/under on the road. The Cubs hit .242 away from Wrigley and average just under four runs per road game.
Pick: Under 8
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (-164, 9.5)
Rockies leadoff hitter Carlos Gonzalez isn’t leaving the big swinging to the middle of the order.
The left fielder has hit a home run in four straight games heading into Thursday’s series finale with the Washington Nationals. That recent tear has helped Colorado win three in a row and seven of its last 10 games, securing a one-game lead over the Giants for the National League wild card.
While Gonzalez gets the headlines, center fielder Dexter Fowler has also been lethal at the plate, hitting second in the order. This month, Fowler is hitting just under .400 with four RBIs and 30 total bases in August.
"We've gotten to a point in time in the season where we're playing games to win, something a lot of people didn't think would happen," Rockies manager Jim Tracy told the media. "So it makes sense to continue to develop two very dynamic young players and also give ourselves a chance to continue to win games. I think this is a smart thing to try. We're not hurting ourselves one bit and we could possibly be enhancing ourselves even more."
Colorado has won 21 of the past 27 games against San Francisco including taking all five meetings between these NL West rivals in 2009.
We don’t get to talk about Nats starters very often when it comes to win streaks, so we have to jump on it when the opportunity arises.
Washington has won Martin’s last three starts and he seems to be getting better with every trip to the hill. Perhaps the rookie is getting over some beginner’s jitters after he gave up five earned runs in two of his first three starts.
Martin’s ERA is just 2.35 over his past three outings, though he’s been a consistent over bet lately with his last five starts toppling the total.
Slumping
Sean O’Sullivan, Los Angeles Angels (3-1, 5.91)
O’Sullivan is living the dream life of a rookie pitcher through eight starts – his team is covering up all his mistakes with its play at the plate.
The Angels are 7-1 in the 22-year-old right-hander’s starts despite the fact he has a ballooning ERA that is greater than 10 runs over his past three starts. That’s good for bettors. The lofty ERA means O’Sully is usually an underdog when he steps on the mound and that has helped him climb to No. 12 in our starting pitcher money standings.
O’Sullivan gave up 12 runs in fewer than nine innings in his two most recent games – both of which were against AL East opponents. He faces the Jays Friday.
Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-6, 5.51 ERA)
It was a toss-up of whether to go with Morton or his Friday counterpart, Micah Owings, for our second slumper. Both guys have ERAs of more than 11 runs over their past three games.
Let’s let them battle for our love as the Reds and Bucs fight for last place in the NL Central.
We’ll hold Morton dearest to our hearts for now because he’s the dude who started the hemorrhaging in the Cubs’ 17-2 massacre over the Pirates last week. Viewer discretion is advised before looking at Morton’s stats in that one: One inning pitched. Forty-nine pitches. Seven hits. Ten earned runs. One battered ego.
What bettors need to know: Yankees at Red Sox
By David Chan
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Season series
If you're looking at the entire season, the Red Sox have dominated the Yankees, winning eight of 12 matchups.
However, both teams are singing a much different tune after the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a four-game series in the Bronx two weeks ago.
Betting the home side has been a highly profitable endeavor, as the host has taken 10 out of 12 meetings.
The Red Sox did manage to sweep a short two-game series in New York back in early May.
Streaks and stats
The Yankees improved to 5-2 on their current road trip with a win in Oakland Wednesday. They enter this series riding an incredible 14-3 run.
New York has also won eight of its last 10 games on the road to move eight games over .500 as the visitor this season.
The Red Sox have played much better baseball since taking a beating at the hands of the Yankees. Since that four-game sweep they have won six of nine games (pending Thursday's result).
Fenway Park hasn't been quite as kind to the Sox lately. They've won only five of their last nine games in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Pitching matchups
Friday
Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) vs. Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA)
Andy Pettitte has been outstanding lately, giving up only four earned runs over his last four starts. He struck out a season high 10 batters against the Mariners in his last start.
Pettitte is 16-9 in 32 career starts against the Red Sox, most recently pitching his team to a 5-2 win on August 9.
Brad Penny continues to battle mediocrity, now an even 7-7 on the season. He has been tagged for at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.
Penny has faced the Yankees once this season, earning a no-decision despite throwing six innings of shutout ball in a 4-3 Red Sox victory.
A.J. Burnett was a hard-luck loser in his last start in Oakland, falling 3-0 despite tossing eight quality innings.
The Yankees right-hander has been terrific in his career against the Red Sox 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. On August 7, he gave up only one hit over 7 2-3 innings against the Sox.
You'll remember that Junichi Tazawa got his first taste of big league ball in that 15-inning marathon against the Yankees. He gave up the game-winning two-run shot to Alex Rodriguez.
Since then, Tazawa has settled down, splitting a pair of decisions against the Tigers and Rangers. He has been hit hard, however, giving up 18 hits in 11 2-3 innings pitched.
The series finale is a dream matchup for ESPN when both teams' aces go head-to-head.
Sabathia has reeled off four consecutive victories, lasting eight innings in each of his last two starts. He has struck out 26 batters while giving up only 10 hits in his last 23 2-3 innings pitched.
Sabathia is just 3-5 with a 3.57 ERA in nine career starts against Boston.
Like Sabathia, Josh Beckett will also be going for his 15th win of the season Sunday.
Beckett was hit hard against the Blue Jays in his last start, giving up nine hits and seven earned runs over 5 1-3 innings. Prior to that, he had lasted at least seven innings in six consecutive starts.
The Red Sox are 15-4 in Beckett's last 19 starts and are 3-1 in his four starts against the Yankees this season.
Injury report
The Yankees have two key recent injuries worth mentioning. Brett Gardner remains on the DL while Hideki Matsui had fluid drained from his knee last Sunday, but returned to the lineup Tuesday.
Recent Red Sox injuries of note include Rocco Baldelli (bruised ankle, 15-day DL), Jason Varitek (strained neck, day-to-day), and J.D. Drew (sore groin, returned Tuesday).
Odds and ends
The Yankees continue their 10-game road trip which has already taken them to Seattle and Oakland.
Boston makes the short trip from Toronto to open up a 10-game homestand.
The two teams own almost identical records in series openers this season. The Yankees check in at 23-16 while the Red Sox are 24-15.
Bullpen banter: Yankees pen cruising into fall
By LEE KOSTROSKI - My handicapping is extensive, exhaustive and highly productive
Thriving
New York Yankees
Everything simply seems to be clicking for the Yankees. They are currently the second best hitting team in MLB with a .278 BA and averaging 5.5 runs per game. Their starting pitching has come together after a sluggish start to the season and might be the best in baseball. New York’s overall bullpen numbers won’t knock you over, but they are throwing very well right now.
When thinking of the Yankee bullpen, the first name that always comes to mind is Mariano Rivera. The pin stripers almost never have to worry about blowing a save if Rivera is available to close out. Rivera has racked up 35 saves this season with only one blown opportunity. His ERA is just 1.94. Even more impressive, Rivera has allowed only one earned run in his last 25 appearances dating back to mid-June.
After struggling as a starter this year, Philip Hughes has definitely found a home in the bullpen. After making seven starts and sporting an ERA of well over 5.00, the Yanks’ brass made the decision to move Hughes to the bullpen in early June. Since that move, he has made 24 appearances allowing only three earned runs. His ERA has dropped to 3.39 in the process.
Recent additions have also helped the depth of the bullpen. Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin are newcomers to the staff and, while their numbers may not be overly impressive, they have given the team more options out of the pen.
Mitre has made six starts and Gaudin is slated to make his first start Wednesday night. That has given New York the opportunity to keep Alfredo Aceves as a reliever, where he has been very successful with a 7-1 record. His lone start was a disaster in Minnesota, so the ability to keep him out of the rotation due to recent acquisitions will be key during their late season and post season run.
When the Yankees swept rival Boston in a recent four-game series, their bullpen was a key reason. New York’s bullpen ERA during that four-game stint was just 2.53 while Boston’s relievers struggled to an ERA that was over 8.00. The Yanks’ relievers allowed only 19 total base runners in 14.2 innings of work. Boston, on the other hand, allowed 32 base runners in 15.1 innings.
Both bullpens will be a key element in the late-season race for the AL East. After their recent showing, New York’s relievers have the edge.
Struggling
Los Angeles Dodgers
If you glance at the Dodgers’ seasonal bullpen stats, you wouldn’t think they belong in this spot. But despite the fact that L.A. has the second lowest bullpen ERA on the season, that hasn’t been the case in recent outings.
After roaring through the first half of the season with the best record in the National League, the Dodgers are just 15-17 since the All-Star break and their bullpen inconsistencies have contributed.
Over the last 10 games, this relief corps has an ERA of almost 5.00. Their bullpen ERA since the All-Star break is a decent 3.70, however, it is a bit higher than their overall numbers.
Three relievers have really struggled. Closer Jonathan Broxton has an ERA of nearly 6.00 his last six appearances. His three blown saves in his last six opportunities is a big reason for concern. Closing out games has been a sore spot for this team all season long. In fact, they have already blown 21 saves this season which is the second-worst number in the majors behind Washington.
Others not living up to their billing are Ramon Troncoso and Guillermo Mota. Both have very impressive season numbers, but they have not been performing well lately. Troncoso has an ERA of 23.62 over his last five outings. Mota has picked up two losses in his last five appearances with an ERA exceeding 10.00.
With current injuries to starters Jason Schmidt and Hiroki Kuroda, it could weaken a pen that is not performing well. Chad Billingsley also missed a start due to a hamstring issue but made his next schedule appearance. Any more problems with Billingsley and this bullpen would really take a huge hit.
Inside the lines 8/21
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