Backing the Eagles in the preseason has never been a winning proposition during the Andy Reid tenure as the club has enjoyed just one winning August and three break-even campaigns during his 10 years at the helm. And on the road, the news is even worse as the Birds have dropped eight of their last 10 on the highway the past five preseasons combined.
So why is Philadelphia the favorite tonight at Indianapolis? Because the only team worse than the Eagles in August is the Colts, who have lost 13 of their last 16 preseason outings straight-up, covering just five times in that stretch. And the switch from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell didn't change the team's fortunes as they dropped their opener last week at home to Minnesota, 13-3, as a three-point favorite. In the contest, Caldwell - much like Dungy before him - rested a number of his starters and perturbed those that did play, particularly Peyton Manning, by pulling them after six plays instead of their scheduled 12 downs.
Tonight Manning and his fellow starters are expected to play the first quarter, but again Indy will be minus at least six first-teamers, among them placekicker Adam Vinatieri, defensive stalwarts Bob Sanders, Raheem Brock, Anthoine Bethea, Robert Mathis and Kelvin Hayden, and back-up quarterback Jim Sorgi. With Sorgi sidelined for the second straight week, that means Indy will be counting on rookie Lance Painter once Manning is done for the evening. The former Purdue star was just average against Minnesota last week, completing 10-of-17 passes for 77 yards. And his ground game offered little support, garnering 77 yards on 14 carries for a deceiving 5.5 yards per carry average since 38 of them came on one carry by rookie Donald Brown.
Defense, or a lack thereof, killed the Colts last year and they weren't sharp on that side of the ball versus the Vikings, who outgained them 147-0 in the first quarter and averaged a healthy 4.4 yards per carry on the ground on 26 rushes.
Philadelphia epitomizes the term "walking wounded;" eight projected starters, including four members of the offensive line plus their top pass rusher, are out of action tonight. And although the Eagles were upset by New England at home in their opener, they played relatively well on both sides of the line of scrimmage; special team miscues continually put the Patriots in scoring position.
Reid plans to let his starters play the entire first half, and once Donovan McNabb (11-for-18, 103 yards vs. NE) takes a seat on the bench, A.J. Feeley, who completed 18-of-24 passes for 211 yards versus the Patriots, is expected to take over. The Birds also got a big game in their opener from rookie running back LeSean McCoy, who gained 55 yards on 10 carries to pace a ground game that averaged 4.3 yards on 27 rushes.
This is a situation where you should not be surprised to see the public make a late push to get on Philadelphia and move this line upwards. If it moves to 3 1/2 you buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to insure you get at least a push should the Eagles prevail by only a field goal. And if you can get -3 at the outset, go ahead and buy down to -2 1/2 to make sure you score should Philly win by only three points.
This line should not escalate to -4, but if it does, Philadelphia remains the play, but in that case you certainly do not buy the 1/2 point because there is no mathematical benefit from a wagering perspective.
Al DeMarco 8/20
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