[G-men]

Wunderdog

Game: Seattle at Detroit

2 units Detroit -165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.2)

The Seattle Mariners hung in the wildcard race for quite awhile, but are slipping fast. This team that lost over 100 games last season is vastly improved, but now face the rest of the season without ace Eric Bedard, leaving a gaping hole in the rotation. The Mariners are just 11-14 in their last 25 games, and four of them were won by Felix Hernandez. Ryan Roland-Smith has done a very good job coming back off an injury, but he is facing a team that eats up lefthanders at 89-57 the last four years, and is also winning two of every three at home, and an even better 24-9 in their last 33. The Tigers have not lost more than one in a row at home in their last 16 played in Detroit, while the Mariners are now just 17-37 in their last 54 as a road dog. I'll go with the Tigers in this one.


Game: Seattle at Detroit

2 units Detroit -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 2 to win 2.6)

The Tigers are winning their way to the AL Central title at home, as they are 24-9 here over their last 33. They have an above .500 record playing to a would be -1.5 runline in those 33 games, making the + odds on the runline spill value on the Tigers. When you consider that the Mariners, in their last 11 road losses, that 10 of them have been by two runs or more it just adds to the value here. I'll go with the Tigers on the runline here.

Early Game More Later

[uncut]

Thanks G-Men!

[G-men]

Wunderdog

MLB | Aug 20

Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Chicago Cubs +1½-162

There are lots of reasons to play on the Cubs here. First, they will be breathing fire setting foot in here as the memory of the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers last year in the playoffs will be in mind. The Dodgers are also in the midst of a bad stretch, dropping each of their last four home series, finishing 4-8 in the 12 games. Two of the four wins came by a single run resulting in just 2-10 mark to a would-be -1.5 runline they face here. The Dodgers are just 1-5 in their last six at home against a winning team. I like the revenge-seeking Cubs on the runline here.

[G-men]

Wunderdog

NFL

Game: Cincinnati at New England (Thursday 8/20 7:30 PM Eastern)

Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

It is rare to see an NFL preseason pointspread in this range except for week three, when you see starters getting a lot of time on the field. It certainly makes you look hard at the abundance of points. History shows it is a good idea to take the points when the situation arises. Since 1995 when a team is getting six or more points in an NFLX game, they have delivered the money on 59.1% of the occasions for their backers, covering 122 occurrences, with an overall record of 72-50 ATS. Those numbers get even larger when you look at the AFC. When an AFC team has been afforded the luxury of six or more points, the win rate increases to an astounding 68%! That number rises even further to 71.4% when the line reaches a full seven points or more! I'm going with the Bengals here as this number is simply too high.

Game: Philadelphia at Indianapolis (Thursday 8/20 8:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)

Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 36.5 -110

Eagles Coach Andy Reid has shown disdain for these games and has never taken winning them seriously. Reid has a bad record int he preseason with a combined 15-26 mark in these games as coach of the Eagles and just 7-13 ATS as a favorite. Jim Caldwell lost his opener, and hopefully he is anxious to get a win under his belt at home tonight. Just like Monday Night Football was in its first 15 years or so, the NFL preseason has been characterized by dominating home underdogs as they have turned the points at home into 61% winners over the last decade. This is a excellent spot for Indy at home getting points, under a first year coach playing against a coach that has always puts out good teams - just not in the preseason. Indy gets the call here. I also like this game to go UNDER the total. Andy Reid over the past three years has seen his teams score an average of 13.3 points per game on the road during the preseason. That average if attained, would mean the Colts would have to reach 24 points, something they have done just three times at home in the last six years of preseason play. I also like the UNDER here.

[G-men]

Wunderdog

Game: Colorado at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Washington +125 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.8)

The Washington Nationals have played very well in the second half of the season, and they have put together a season best 17-11 run, especially since they were 26-66 before that. That is 65% of their season win total from that 26-66 start in just 29% of the games. They are certainly playing at a much different level. That mark is an even better 10-4 when they are playing at home. They have outscored their opponents by 25 runs during their recent 28 game stretch. The Rockies have not fared well with Hammels on the mound, and playing on the road where they are just 1-5 in his last six road starts. The Nats are suddenly big-time at home, going 10-2 in their last 12 games, and have won each of the last four game 3's in their series sets. I'll go with Washington in this one.


Game: Colorado at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)

Pick: 5 units on Washington +1.5 runs -135 (runline) (risk 5 to win 3.7)

The Nats have played to a 17-11 mark in their last 28, including 10-2 in their last 12 at home. Those numbers are great, but get even better when you consider the would-be +1.5 runline. The Nats would be 12-0 in their last 12 home games getting the plus side of the runline, and I'll back them on the runline.


Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)

Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs +130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)

The Dodgers have a deceptive record right now as they had the best record in baseball for a longtime, but have fallen rapidly as the season has moved along, and are just 9-15 over their last 24 games. They are just a .500 team at home after a tremendous 13-0 start and recently, they have been downright terrible at home. The Dodgers have dropped each of their last four series at home, combining for a 4-8 mark. The Cubs are going to come in here very thirsty for a win in game one, off the memory of being swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers in three straight last season. They are catching the Dodgers at the right time, as they are really struggling, and have scored ony three runs or less in over half of their last 23 games. This is a good spot with a good dog and with a big revenge motive against a struggling team. The Cubs get the call here.


Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)

Pick: 4 units on Chicago Cubs +1.5 runs -180 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.2)

There are lots of reasons to play on the Cubs here. First, they will be breathing fire setting foot in here as the memory of the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers last year in the playoffs will be in mind. The Dodgers are also in the midst of a bad stretch, dropping each of their last four home series, finishing 4-8 in the 12 games. Two of the four wins came by a single run resulting in just 2-10 mark to a would-be -1.5 runline they face here. The Dodgers are just 1-5 in their last six at home against a winning team. I like the revenge-seeking Cubs on the runline here.

[bill2266]

thanks for the plays