Cincinnati (0-1 SU and ATS) at New England (1-0 SU and ATS)
Patriots’ fans should get to see Tom Brady on the field at Gillette Stadium for the first time since he injured his knee in the regular-season opener last year when New England entertains the Bengals.
Brady took 24 snaps and played virtually the entire first half a week ago in New England’s 27-25 win in Philadelphia as a three-point underdog. Brady is expected to start this game but likely won’t play as long as last week as coach Bill Belichick is trying to identify his backup. A preseason battle has ensued between second-year pro Kevin O’Connell and five-year NFL veteran Andrew Walter, so expect to see each for a good amount of time in this one.
Cincinnati’s starting QB Carson Palmer will sit this game out after injuring his ankle in last week’s 17-7 loss at New Orleans as a three-point road underdog. That leaves No. 2 quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan as the starter, and he’s slated to play at least through the middle of the second quarter, with Palmer’s brother, Jordan, taking over the play-calling duties the remainder of the contest.
The Patriots were winless in August last year, both SU and ATS, and they haven’t had a winning preseason since going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2003. At home, they are 4-6 SU and ATS in preseason action the last five years, including 1-3 SU and ATS the last two Augusts in Foxborough.
The Bengals have been the picture of preseason mediocrity since coach Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, going 12-13 SU and 13-12 ATS. However, even with last week’s loss to the Saints, they are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as a visitor the past three years in August (all as an underdog), winning both road games last preseason.
The over is 7-4 in New England’s last 11 preseason games (4-1 at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (0-1 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Eagles have been making headlines all week, but the reason for those headlines will not be in the building when they take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for a battle with the Colts.
Philadelphia signed former Falcons QB Michael Vick a week ago but due to his suspension, he is unable to play in the preseason until next week. Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia starters will play the first half tonight. From there, expect to see current third-string QB A.J. Feeley play the entire second half with backup QB Kevin Kolb still out with a knee injury and Vick unable to suit up.
Indianapolis’ starting offense was on the field for just six plays in Friday’s 13-3 home loss to the Vikings as a four-point home underdog, with starting QB Peyton Manning getting sacked on three of the six plays. New coach Jim Caldwell announced Manning and the rest of his starters will be on the field for about 20 plays this week. With longtime backup QB Jim Sorgi still out injured, expect rookie QB Curtis Painter to get the majority of the snaps in the second half, with another rookie – former Boston College QB Chris Crane – seeing mop-up action late in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles lost 27-25 at home to the Patriots in their exhibition opener, falling as three-point home favorites. They’ve had just one winning preseason in Reid’s decade-long tenure at the helm, also managing just three .500 exhibition campaigns in this stretch. Philly is just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in exhibition road games the last five years.
Including last week’s 10-point loss to Minnesota, the Colts are now 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in preseason play since 2005. During this stretch, Indianapolis has lost eight of nine preseason home games both SU and ATS and is 3-8 ATS as an underdog.
Indy is holding out 10 players from this week’s game, including six starters, while the Eagles are leaving eight regulars at home, including four of their projected starters on the offensive line.
The Eagles have topped the total in eight of their last 10 exhibition games while Indianapolis has stayed under the total in four straight preseason contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (61-57) at L.A. Dodgers (71-50)
The struggling Cubs continue their West Coast road trip, opening a four-game set in Los Angeles with lefty Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 5.24) on the mound opposite Dodgers veteran Jeff Weaver (5-4, 3.77).
Chicago salvaged the finale of a three-game set in San Diego on Wednesday, getting a superb one-hit pitching performance from Rich Harden in a 7-1 victory over the Padres. Despite the win, the Cubs are just 3-7 in their last 10 and still nine games under .500 on the road this season at 26-35. Chicago is on further slides of 8-20 on the road against winning teams, 1-4 against the N.L. West and 0-5 against teams with a winning record.
The Dodgers just dropped two of three at home against the N.L. Central-leading Cardinals, capped by Wednesday’s 3-2 loss. Los Angeles has struggled lately both overall (7-11 in August) and in front of the home fans (1-5 in the last six). The Dodgers are on positive runs of 22-10 in their last 32 at home against southpaws and 9-4 in their last 13 Thursday contests.
Gorzelanny, who was traded from Pittsburgh last month, is making his fourth start in a Cubs’ uniform and coming off a strong home outing on Saturday, holding his former team to one run on three hits in five innings of a 3-1 win. The former Pirates’ starter has made two career starts against the Dodgers (both in 2007), giving up three runs in each outing over a total of 12 2/3 innings (4.26 ERA).
These teams split four meetings at Wrigley Field at the end of May, but including last year’s first-round playoff series that Los Angeles swept in three games, the Dodgers are on a 7-3 roll against Chicago (3-1 at home).
Weaver has made only one start since July 11, going just three innings on Aug. 12 in San Francisco, holding the Giants scoreless on two hits with L.A. eventually losing 3-2 in 10 innings Weaver has a 3.08 ERA in his six starts, but hasn’t made it past five innings in any of those games. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.11 ERA in 11 home appearances this season, but just three starts, the last coming on May 20.
The last time Weaver faced the Cubs as a starter was in 2007 for the Mariners and he allowed three runs in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Wrigley. Dating back to when he was a regular starter, the Dodgers are 7-2 in Weaver’s last nine home starts (2-1 this year) and 7-3 when he starts against a team with a winning record.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 19-8 on Thursdays, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 5-1 on the road, but the under has been the play in six of its last seven series openers. Los Angeles has stayed under the total in five of Weaver’s last seven starts and four of his last five at home, but as a team, the Dodgers are on “over” streaks of 10-5-1 at home and 6-2-1 at home against teams with losing road records. Finally, this series has stayed under the total in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven clashes in Hollywood.
The Florida Marlins might be the best bad team in baseball. The Houston Astros might be the worst good team in baseball.
Not much seems to make sense between these clubs, but the bottom line is that the Marlins are in the hunt for the National League Wild Card berth as well as the NL East race despite having the league’s worst attendance and lowest payroll.
The Astros have long dropped out of playoff contention despite a starting staff that boasts two aces in Roy Oswalt and Thursday’s starter Wandy Rodriguez, and a potent lineup that includes Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez says his young team remains in the race because of the way it copes with its inconsistency.
“It’s a matter of the culture in the clubhouse,” Gonzalez told reporters. “We have a good group of guys. There are no curds in the buttermilk.”
The Marlins had won seven of their last eight games against the Astros and 10 of 12 overall heading into Wednesday’s action. Houston’s Rodriguez gave up 10 runs in his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Pick: Marlins -112
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers (-155, 8.5)
The Detroit Tigers continue to show that they are dedicated to making a run at the postseason. The Seattle Mariners continue to show ambivalence.
The predictable result: the Tigers are in the hunt for AL Central crown, while the improved Mariners have faded from view in the AL West.
The Tigers made another move by acquiring veteran left-handed slugger Aubrey Huff from the Baltimore Orioles to add another weapon to their lineup.
“We’re doing what we can to win,” Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said.
The Mariners, who are relegated to extreme long-shot status for the AL wild card, couldn’t seem to decide whether they were buyers or sellers at the All-Star break.
They settled on something in between. They dealt ace Jarrod Washburn to the Tigers, and will now face their former arm Thursday.
Seattle made no major moves to improve its club, although it did acquire slumping third baseman Bill Hall from the Brewers Wednesday. However, it’s unlikely Hall will make much of a difference to Seattle’s chances this year.
Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
The 23-year-old lefty has been a welcome surprise for Toronto’s starting staff, posting a 3-0 record with two no-decisions in his past five starts.
Cecil (5-1, 4.35 ERA) has given up just seven total earned runs in this span, which included a 13-inning scoreless streak during consecutive wins over the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Indians.
Joel Pineiro, St. Louis Cardinals
On a staff noted for overachieving, Pineiro has gone from journeyman to overlooked ace in the St. Louis rotation.
Pineiro (11-9, 3.25 ERA) is 5-0 with a pair of no-decisions in his past seven outings. He has given up three runs or fewer six times in this streak, which includes back-to-back wins over the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres.
The 30-year-old right-hander also has gone at least six innings in five of his previous seven trips to the hill.
Slumping
Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
Although Harang’s future in the Reds’ starting rotation might be uncertain, his reservation in the “slumping” column appears to be in no immediate jeopardy.
We hate to consistently pick on one guy, but it’s hard to overlook everything that ails the hard-throwing righty.
Harang (6-14. 4.35 ERA) is 1-6 in his past seven starts. He has given up at least four earned runs in four of those contests and has yielded a minimum of six hits in all of them.
On the bright side, Harang had perhaps his best outing of the season when he held the Giants to just two runs during his lone win in this span. However, he followed it up with a loss to the Washington Nationals.
Anthony Swarzak, Minnesota Twins
The rookie impressed the Twins’ brass by winning his Major League Baseball debut. But it’s been pretty much downhill since.
The 23-year-old right-hander is 1-3 with a no-decision in his past five starts. Swarzak (3-6, 5.87 ERA) has lost his last three decisions, while giving up 16 earned runs and failing to get past the fourth inning in any of those contests.
Out of the 12 games on the Thursday card, ten will conclude series, while the two late games are series openers. The Red Sox and Rangers continue to fight it out for the AL Wild Card lead, while the Marlins send out their ace against the Astros.
Red Sox at Blue Jays (7:05 PM EST)
Boston and Toronto wrap up their three-game set at Rogers Centre, as the Sox send out Jon Lester to the mound, going for the series sweep. With last night's victory, Terry Francona's team claimed their second road series victory since the All-Star Break.
Lester (9-7, 3.71 ERA) is coming off three straight solid starts against teams all in playoff contention. The Sox southpaw struck out 28 batters, while allowing a total of five earned runs in road outings against the Yankees, Rays, and Rangers. Boston helped out Lester in his last start by scoring five runs in the ninth inning to beat Texas, 8-4. The Sox are 1-4 in Lester's five career starts in Toronto, including a 3-1 loss to Roy Halladay and the Jays on July 19.
The Jays are 4-0 in Brett Cecil's (5-1, 4.35 ERA) last four starts, even though the last two victories have come against the A's and Orioles. Cecil is 2-0 in six home outings, owning a 3.18 ERA at Rogers Centre. The Sox knocked around the Jays lefty on May 20 at Fenway, as Cecil allowed eight earned runs in 4.2 innings of work, including five home runs.
Sportsbook has installed the Red Sox as a $1.70 road favorite, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under').
Braves at Mets (7:05 PM EST)
The Braves are still right in the midst of the NL Wild Card race, as Atlanta finishes up its three-game series at Citi Field against Johan Santana and the Mets.
Santana (13-8, 3.10 ERA) has not had the greatest luck against the Braves since the beginning of his Mets tenure in 2008. The Mets lost Santana's first four starts versus Atlanta, until the former Cy Young winner won at Turner Field on July 18, beating the Braves, 5-1. Since that victory, Santana has been consistently inconsistent. The Mets have alternated wins and losses in the lefty's last six outings, with the three victories all being quality starts, and the three defeats being less than stellar. Santana is coming off a loss in his last trip to the hill, giving up four runs in a loss to the Giants.
Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.13 ERA) was on the losing side of that 5-1 defeat to Santana and the Mets a month ago. The Braves righty didn't pitch badly in that game, allowing two earned runs in 6.2 innings of work, his second loss to the Mets this season. Kawakami has been a good bet as a road underdog, with Atlanta winning four of his six starts in this spot, including a victory as a $1.85 'dog at Los Angeles.
The Mets are listed as a $1.30 home 'chalk' at Sportsbook, while the total is set at 7 (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'over').
Marlins at Astros (8:05 PM EST)
Florida trots out ace Josh Johnson to the hill, going for his 13th victory of the season. The Marlins are three games back of the Rockies inside the NL Wild Card race after losing at Houson 5-3, while the Astros have nearly fallen out of the race.
Johnson (12-2, 2.85 ERA) was nearly flawless his last time out, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Colorado. Garrett Atkins broke up the no-no with a solo homer, but Johnson's stat-line ended on a superb note, allowing just the one hit in 7.1 innings. The Marlins bullpen gave up a handful of runs, but Florida held on, 6-5. Johnson's road numbers are outstanding, winning six of seven decisions, while the Fish are 8-3 to the 'over' in his 11 away starts.
Wandy Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05 ERA) has always been a sharp play at Minute Maid Park, and this season is no exception. The Astros lefty is 6-2 at home with an ERA of 1.92, while Houston has won nine of Rodriguez's 11 home outings. Rodriguez is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 10 earned runs in just four innings in an 11-2 loss at Milwaukee. How good was Rodriguez prior to that awful outing against the Brewers? The Astros southpaw gave up a total of nine runs in his previous nine starts, with Houston taking seven of those games.
The Astros are 9-3 the last 12 home meetings against the Marlins, but Florida has taken seven of the last nine matchups against Houston dating back to last season.
Each team is listed at $1.10 on Sportsbook, with the total listed at 7 ½.
Everything simply seems to be clicking for the Yankees. They are currently the second best hitting team in MLB with a .278 average and 5.5 runs per game. Their starting pitching has come together after a sluggish start to the season and might be the best in baseball. Finally, New York’s overall bullpen numbers won’t knock you over, but they are throwing very well right now.
When thinking of the Yankee bullpen, the first name that always comes to mind is Mariano Rivera. The pin stripers almost never have to worry about blowing a save if Rivera is available to close out. Rivera has racked up 35 saves this season with only one blown opportunity. His ERA is just 1.94. Even more impressive, Rivera has allowed only one earned run in his last 25 appearances dating back to mid-June.
After struggling as a starter this year, Philip Hughes has definitely found his nitch in the bullpen. After making seven starts and sporting an ERA of well over 5.00, the Yanks brass made the decision to move Hughes to the bullpen in early June. Since that move, he has made 24 appearances allowing only 3 earned runs. His ERA has dropped to 3.39 in the process.
Recent additions have also really helped the depth of the bullpen. Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin are newcomers to the staff and while their numbers may not be overly impressive, they have given the team more options out of the pen. Mitre has made six starts and Gaudin is slated to make his first start on Wednesday night. That has given New York the opportunity to keep Alfredo Aceves as a reliever where he has been very successful with a 7-1 record. His lone start was a disaster in Minnesota so the ability to keep him out of the rotation due to recent acquisitions will be key during their late season and post season run.
When the Yankees swept rival Boston in a recent four game series, their bullpen was a key reason. New York’s bullpen ERA during that four game stint was just 2.53 while Boston’s relievers struggled to an ERA that was over 8.00. The Yanks relievers allowed only 19 total base runners in 14.2 innings of work. Boston, on the other hand, allowed 32 base runners in 15.1 innings. Both bullpens will be a key element in the late season race for the A.L. East. After their recent showing, New York’s relievers have the edge.
Struggling – LA Dodgers
If you glance at the Dodgers seasonal bullpen stats, you wouldn’t think they belong in this spot. However, despite the fact that L.A. has the second lowest bullpen ERA on the season, that hasn’t been the case as of late. After roaring through the first half of the season with the best record in the N.L., the Dodgers are just 15-17 since the All-Star break and their bullpen inconsistencies have contributed.
Despite their overall season success, over the last 10 games this relief corps has an ERA of almost 5.00. Their bullpen ERA since the All-Star break is a decent 3.70, however it is a bit higher than their overall numbers.
Three Dodger relievers have really struggled as of late. Closer Jonathan Broxton has an ERA of nearly 6.00 his last six appearances. More of a concern are his three blown saves in his last 6 opportunities. Closing out games has been a sore spot for this team all season long. In fact, they have already blown 21 saves this season which is the second worst number in the Majors behind Washington which is in league of their own when it comes to bullpen problems.
Other not living up to billing recently are Ramon Troncoso and Guillermo Mota. Both have very impressive seasonal numbers, but as of late they have not been performing well. Troncoso has an ERA of 23.62 over his last five outings. Mota has picked up two losses in his last five appearances with an ERA exceeding 10.00.
With current injuries to starters Jason Schmidt and Hiroki Kuroda, it could further weaken a pen that is not performing well. Chad Billingsley also missed a start due to a hamstring issue but made his next schedule appearance. Any more problems with Billingsley and this bullpen would really take a huge hit.
The Cubs have been a mystery all season long. In 2008, Chicago looked to be headed to its first World Series since 1945, but was quickly eliminated by the Dodgers in the first round of the postseason. The expectations were still high coming into this season for Lou Piniella's squad, but injuries derailed that plan, as the Cubs sit in second place inside the NL Central.
Despite Wednesday's victory at San Diego, the Cubs have dropped nine of their last 13 games. Chicago came out of the All-Star Break like gang-busters, going 11-3, but ten of those wins came against the Nationals, Reds, and Astros. Amazingly, the Cubs have not won a road series this season against a team that is currently above .500.
The pitching staff has seen its share of injuries, as ace Carlos Zambrano is rehabbing from a stint on the disabled list due to back spasms. The loss of Zambrano is taking its effect on the Cubs, as the team was 14-6 in his 20 starts, with seven wins each at home and on the road.
The co-team leader in wins, Ted Lilly, picked up a no-decision in a hard-luck loss on Monday at San Diego, his first start since mid-July. Lilly has been dominant at home, owning a 6-1 mark and 1.86 ERA at Wrigley this season. The Cubs southpaw has not been a great play on the road, as Chicago is 4-7 in Lilly's away starts.
Randy Wells has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs, compiling a 9-5 mark, and ERA of 3.01. Chicago is 9-2 in Wells' last 11 starts, but the Illinois native has beaten the Pirates twice, the Reds twice, Astros, and Nationals in this span.
Cubs fans can point to the multitude of blown saves by the bullpen, namely Kevin Gregg, who was demoted after allowing a walk-off homer in Monday's loss to the Padres. Gregg has blown three saves this month, and was recently replaced by set-up man, Carlos Marmol.
Things don't get easier for the Cubbies this weekend, heading to Los Angeles to battle the NL West-leading Dodgers. Chicago sends out lefty Tom Gorzelanny on Thursday, Wells on Friday, followed by Lilly on Saturday, then Ryan Dempster to wrap it up on Sunday.
From a trend standpoint, keep an eye on Friday's matchup, when the Dodgers send out lefty Randy Wolf to the mound. Chicago is 9-3-1 to the 'under' this season in night contests against left-handed starting pitchers.
The Cubs return home from their West Coast swing to host the Nationals and Mets beginning Tuesday night. There's still time remaining for the Cubs to make a late surge for the Wild Card, but Chicago has to find some consistency down the stretch if they want to play into October.
Inside the lines 8/20
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