Thursday's NFL preseason betting previews
By DAVID JONES
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-7, 36.5 )
Starter/Injury report
Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer will be held out of action with a mild ankle injury. He was sharp in last week's preseason opener against the Saints. Palmer led the Bengals into New Orleans territory in three of his four drives with the first-team offense.
The defense held Drew Brees and the Saints offense to just a single first down in the opening 15 minutes before yielding a touchdown drive early in the second quarter.
Another Palmer will still be taking the majority of snaps at quarterback in Thursday's contest. Carson's brother, Jordan, is expected to play the final two and a half quarters against New England following starter J.T. O' Sullivan. The duo combined to complete 16-of-22 pass attempts against the Saints.
Cincinnati is still without the services of its top draft choice Andre Smith. The club is trying to hammer out a deal with the offensive lineman.
Tom Brady showed little rust in his return to the field at Philadelphia last week. He directed a pair of long touchdown drives while playing nearly the entire first half for the Pats. While the defense allowed a couple of long drives to Donovan McNabb and the Eagles offense, the unit forced Philadelphia to settle for a pair of field goals instead of touchdowns.
Without a championship since 2004, Pats head coach Bill Belichick has cracked the whip harder than usual this preseason. The Patriots participated in full pads for 18 of their 27 training camp practice outings.
On Thursday, Brady is once again expected to play extended minutes against the Bengals. Former Jaguars star RB Fred Taylor and wideout Wes Welker are expected to make their preseason debuts after being held out last week. Andrew Walter (5-of-9 passing against Eagles) and Kevin O'Connell will handle the quarterbacking duties in the second half.
Line movement
The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 37.5. New England is now favored by a touchdown while the total is down to 36.5.
Trends
Marvin Lewis is 12-13 (13-11-1 ATS) in the preseason. As head coach of the Patriots, Belichick is 21-17 (20-15-3 ATS) in exhibition action.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 83 degrees with a 30 percent chance of rain in Foxboro, MA.
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 36.5)
Starter/Injury report
The Eagles will have to wait another week before getting Michael Vick into game action. With No. 2 QB Kevin Kolb still nursing a minor knee injury, Philly's QB lineup is a little scrambled.
Head coach Andy Reid has said that Donovan McNabb and the starters will play the entire first half against the Colts. A.J. Feely will start the second half and rookie Adam DiMichele could get into the contest in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles are still banged up with several players not making the trip due to injuries. Among the players staying behind are defensive end Trent Cole, cornerback Sheldon Brown, guard Todd Herremans, defensive end Darren Howard, tackle Jason Peters, tackle Shawn Andrews and guard Stacy Andrews. Star running back Brian Westbrook is unlikely to play during the entire preseason after some offseason surgeries.
A new head coach did little to change the Colts’ status as a weak preseason squad. Jim Caldwell's club dropped their exhibition opener to the visiting Minnesota Vikings by a final of 13-3.
The starting defense promptly allowed a 72-yard TD drive by the Vikings to begin the game. The first-team offense was just as bad. In his only series of the evening, Peyton Manning was sacked three times. First-round draft choice Donald Brown was the lone bright spot on offense against Minnesota. He gained 58 yards on five carries and his 38-yard burst in the second quarter led to Indy's only score of the night.
The Colts will also be without their No.2 quarterback Thursday. Jim Sorgi is still out of action with a hamstring injury. Others out for Thursday's game due to injuries include safety Antoine Bethea, cornerback Kelvin Hayden, defensive end Raheem Brock and defensive end Robert Mathis.
Manning and the starters will see more action this week but the Colts will still be relying on a pair of rookies at quarterback for most of the night. Curtis Painter (10-of-17 passing vs. Vikings) and Chris Crane will be under center when the game is on the line in the second half.
Line movement
The Eagles opened as 1-point favorites with the total set at 36.5. Philadelphia has moved up to a field goal choice in the matchup.
Trends
Reid is 14-27 (19-22 ATS) in his preseason career at Philadelphia. The Colts are 3-16 (5-13-1 ATS) in their last 19 preseason games.
The first week of the NFL’s preseason is set aside for fans and bettors to whet their appetites for football. Coaches use it to get an early return on players and their abilities to handle in-game situations. Week 2 is normally more of the same, but there is a lot more buzz this time around.
Brett Favre decided that he was tired of hocking Wranglers and tossing the pigskin around with high school kids. Now he’s found his way into the fold of Minnesota and will start for them on Friday.
Before Favre, it was Michael Vick that was making the headlines by signing with Philadelphia late last week. Will we get to see Vick in action in Indianapolis? That remains to be seen, but we’re going to open up in New England with the Patriots playing host to the Bengals.
Bengals at Patriots – 7:30 p.m. EDT
The Bengals had walked out of their preseason openers recently with a smile on their face. Last Friday, however, Cincy had to be a little worried after falling to the Saints as a 3 ½-point road dog, 17-7. The final score didn’t matter to the team though. What did matter is Carson Palmer walking off the field with his left foot in a protective boot.
Palmer suffered a mild sprain to his upper left ankle during the game. While everyone is saying he’s taking it “day-to-day,” the smart money is on Marvin Lewis sitting him on Thursday night. That means we’re going to get to see J.T. O’Sullivan run the offense to start off. O’Sullivan looked good last week, completing nine of 11 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. Carson’s little brother, Jordan Palmer, will take over for the remainder of the game.
All eyes were on Tom Brady last week as he came back from a season ending knee injury. Brady passed the test and then some as the Pats won as three-point road pups last Thursday, 27-25. New England’s top signal caller connected on 10 of 15 passes for 100 yards with a pair of scores and an interception. Don’t look for Brady to play nearly as much this week. That means Andrew Walter and Kevin O’Connell will duke it out for the backup job.
Not much has come out of the Patriots’ camp on injuries, but that doesn’t surprise me. It would be easier for anyone to break into Fort Knox with a crowbar and a box of Slim Jims than get some info out of Bill Belichick. The only question mark that I can see is if Wes Welker will be on the field this week. Welker sat out last week and didn’t participate too much in practice this week.
The sportsbooks have installed New England as a seven-point home “chalk” with a total of 36 ½. That spread would be fine if this was a regular season contest, but that is huge for a preseason tilt.
The Patriots haven’t been the best team to back during the exhibition portion of the schedule. They have gone 3-5 straight up and against the spread as home favorites during the preseason since 2005. The ‘over’ is 4-2 for those contests.
Cincinnati has posted a 3-2 SU mark in its last five preseason games as a road pup. However, they are a fantastic 4-1 ATS during that time. The Bengals also saw the ‘over’ go 3-1-1 in that stretch.
Eagles at Colts – 8:00 p.m. EDT, FOX
Philadelphia nearly dug itself out of a big hole to in its 27-25 defeat to the Patriots as a three-point home favorite last Thursday. The Eagles were down 24-6 early in the second half before reeling off 19 straight points. Philly would have actually pulled out the outright victory if David Akers had connected on his 43-yard field goal attempt with under a minute remaining in the fourth quarter. I know it’s only the preseason, but a comeback is a comeback.
The Eagles’ fan base was no doubt split on the Vick signing. He gives the offense another wrinkle to its wildcat formation, which will make the bettors back them a little more this season. But many people cannot get past his dog fighting past. We won’t see Vick in action this week, but he is cleared to play in the final two preseason battles.
McNabb is slated to start once again, but will most likely not play the same 1 ½ quarters that he did against the Patriots a week ago. A.J. Feeley will again get the most play out of the backup signal callers here after completing 75 percent of his passes for 211 yards and a touchdown against New England. Kevin Kolb (knee) is listed as “questionable” for this game, so look for Adam DiMichele to get a little playing time.
Indy played Peyton Manning just six snaps against the Vikings in its 13-3 loss as a three-point home pup last Friday night. If you thought that the Colts gave a damn about the preseason, think again. Minnesota had 24 first downs; Indianapolis had eight for the game. The Vikes also outgained them 351-142. The Colts failed to tally a sack, while Minnesota posted six tackles on the QB.
Manning will probably be on the field as much as he was in Week 1. Jim Sorgi (hamstring) won’t be getting any snaps as he’s listed as “out” for the second preseason game. That means we’re going to see a lot more of Curtis Painter under center. Painter completed 10 of 17 passes for 77 yards in about three quarters against the Vikings.
Most betting shops have posted the Eagles as three-point road favorites with a total of 36. Pretty standard line for a preseason game – especially a game played at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis has not been a worthwhile wager when at home in the preseason in the last four years. A 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS mark in those games is proof of why to fade the Colts. But Indy is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS when posted as a road underdog in that stretch.
Andy Reid’s Eagles aren’t exactly world beaters for gamblers in this spot either. Philadelphia is 0-3 SU and ATS when they’re installed as a road “chalk” in the preseason since Reid became head coach in 1999.
Who would have guessed the Norv Turner would be the elder statesman of the AFC West?
That’s the surprising truth after Mike Shanahan got the boot from Denver. That means the division will be sporting three brand new head coaches for their first full year in the job title.
It’s hard not to understand why we saw the turnover we did in the AFC West. Shanahan had three chances to clinch the division with the Broncos and blew it. Lane Kiffin and Al Davis didn’t see eye to eye, but Tom Cable does in Oakland. Kansas City is opting for the flavor of the month by picking up Todd Haley to replace Herm Edwards, who couldn’t get his team to play to win the game.
Sportsbook is expecting the Chargers to dominate in 2009 by hanging a big number on them to win the AFC West.
San Diego Chargers: Over 10 (-150) Under 10 (+120)
Denver Broncos: Over 7 (+170) Under 7 (-220)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 6 (-120) Under 6 (-110)
Oakland Raiders: Over 6 (-115) Under 6 (-115)
Despite that high win total for this season, San Diego is getting love from small majority of our experts.
“The Chargers didn’t play up to their potential in 2008, yet the club still managed to win eight games and that was against a brutal schedule that featured four trips to the East Coast and an overseas visit to London. All of the eight losses were by single digits and the bounces just didn’t go their way,” says Chris David.
To say San Diego dealt with some bad bounces would be an understatement. The Bolts opened the 2008 campaign up with a last second loss to the Panthers. They followed that up with a 39-38 setback in Denver that will forever be known as the “Hochuli Bowl.”
David sees this becoming a great bounce back year for the Chargers. “Looking at the home schedule in 2009, the Chargers catch five teams from the other side of the country at home. On paper, they’re clearly the best team in the division and if they can hold serve at home, an 11-5 record seems very doable.”
I also believe that the Bolts will wind up with more than 10 wins this season. This team had to deal with injuries to both Shawn Merriman and LaDainian Tomlinson. The Merriman injury made it extremely difficult for San Diego to defend the pass, which ranked next to last in the NFL last year with 247.4 yards per game allowed. LT was not out for the whole season, but did struggle to get 1,110 rushing yards.
Both Merriman and Tomlinson are entering this season at full strength, but also have top notch backup plans should either go down to injuries again. Jyles Tucker has improved a great deal over the summer, which will help the defense out immensely. Meanwhile, Darren Sproles has shown that he can fill in for LT.
Kevin Rogers isn’t backing the double-digit favorite for the division. Instead, he’s taking the Raiders to go ‘over’ six wins. “Hopefully, Tom Cable can channel his misguided anger to his team and the Raiders can stop being the NFL’s biggest circus. Oakland has spots in its schedule where they can be successful, hosting the Jets, Bengals, Redskins, Chiefs, and Broncos. If the Raiders can figure out their offense, which has plenty of potential at each skill position, Oakland has a great chance to eclipse the six-win total.”
Brian Edwards is thinking that Haley will bring a winning touch to Kansas City…that’s his hope, at least. ”I'm not real high on this play but I'm confident a push will be the worst outcome. Several factors driving this play: For starters, I think Matt Cassell is going to give this club a major upgrade at the QB position. In addition, you have RB Larry Johnson, who is very capable of a nice bounce-back campaign. The Chiefs also have a rising star in WR Dwayne Bowe. And finally, you have the home field advantage of Arrowhead Stadium that remains huge.”
I commend Edwards for sticking his neck out there with the Chiefs. Sadly, he’s the only many standing on that island. The rest of our crew is predicting KC to fall below the posted win total.
“Even though the new coach/new quarterback scenario in the NFL last year was beyond successful, we’re not backing the trend this year. The combination of Haley and Cassel might be good in year or two, but these two offensive-minded guys will be tested early and often,” says Chris David.
Kevin Rogers believes that Kansas City doesn’t have the same arsenal as its big acquisitions used to have at their disposal. “We’ll see how good Todd Haley is now that he doesn’t have Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin at his disposal. Haley takes over an offense with Matt Cassel, who signed a large contract to come to Kansas City, but it comes without the help of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The Chiefs run a rough gauntlet to start the season, playing the entire NFC East in four consecutive weeks throughout mid-September and October. The road eases up towards the end, but this team is in monster rebuild mode, and six wins seems tough to accomplish this season in Kansas City.”
What the sharps really think of Favre-Minny marriage
By ASHTON GREWAL
The Brett Favre soap opera took another turn this week and by now you’ve surely read what all the football columnists have to say on the matter.
The best way to tackle the issue from a betting standpoint is turning to our expert handicappers to find out what the sharps think of Favre’s addition to the Vikings.
Love him or hate him, the consensus is that Favre will improve Minnesota’s quarterback situation. Of course that depends on whether the greybeard, who’ll turn 40 in October, can stay healthy.
“Favre gives the Vikings a presence at quarterback,” says Covers Expert Stephen Nover. “He’s still better than half the starting QB’s in the league when healthy and he wouldn’t have come back if he weren’t healthy.”
While some critics aren’t sure how successful the aging signal caller will be jumping onto a new team this late in preseason, Nover says there couldn’t have been a softer landing spot for the three-time NFL MVP.
“Minnesota’s makeup is much better than the Jets. Favre didn’t know the AFC and the Jets were a much younger, more immature team.”
Most people think that Favre will help keep opposing defenses honest, something Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson couldn’t do. Fellow capper Lee Kostroski says All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson won’t see eight defenders in the box with Favre sharing the backfield.
Kostroski points to Thomas Jones’ spike in production last season as evidence that Peterson will put up monster numbers in 2009.
While most handicappers say Favre makes the Vikings better, some are unsure whether Favre’s new team should be the favorites to win the NFC North.
“I still believe Chicago is the best team NFC North,” says pro handicapper Matt Fargo. “We’ll get more bang for the buck in taking the Bears to win the division.”
The odds differ from book to book, but the Bears and Vikings are the two clubs with the shortest odds to win the NFC North with Green Bay close behind.
The Vikings won the division last season without No. 4 under center, but Covers Expert Ben Burns says the competition in the North has improved over the offseason.
“I rank the Bears, Vikings and Packers about equal right now,” Burns says.
The Vikings open the season against some of the less-feared teams in the league. Games against the Browns, Lions and 49ers should lead to a 3-0 start for the Purple People Eaters.
But will the positive public perception decrease the value backing Favre’s fellas?
Expert Steve Merril thinks so. He’s already planning on fading the Vikings against inflated prices, especially early in the year.
“I think this was a mistake by the Vikings and will actually make them a weaker team,” Merril says. “The oddsmakers are forced to adjust the future odds based on public opinion. The Vikings are the most talented team in the division, but on a game-by-game basis, I feel they will now be overvalued.”
Some sharp bettors don’t want to jump to any conclusions yet with Favre and Minnesota. Ted Sevransky isn’t sold on whether the marriage will be a good or bad thing for Minny backers.
“I personally did not change my power rating number on the Vikings one iota,” Sevransky says, “not even a half point.”
The Vikings are 3-point favorites for their Week 1 game at Cleveland.
Does Ryan, Flacco give bettors false faith in first-year QBs?
By JOSH NAGEL
Naming an NFL rookie quarterback as your opening-day starter was long believed to be a recipe for disaster.
Conventional wisdom held that turning over the most important position on the field to a fresh-faced phenom was simply a good way to threaten his confidence, physical health and perhaps the future of the team that drafted them.
Last season, the success of two rookie starting quarterbacks did a lot to change those perceptions.
Matt Ryan led a downtrodden Atlanta Falcons club, devastated by the Michael Vick scandal and departure of former coach Bobby Petrino, to an 11-5 mark and a playoff berth while taking every snap under center in his rookie campaign.
Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens did the same for his club. He won the starting job by default in the preseason and made the most of the opportunity. His steady, yet unspectacular, play helped Baltimore come within one win of a Super Bowl berth. Flacco also became the first rookie quarterback to lead his team to two postseason wins.
This season, two more clubs are hoping their rookie signal-callers can produce a similar result.
The Detroit Lions, who went winless last season, drafted Matthew Stafford out of Georgia with the top-overall pick in the draft. The New York Jets traded up to take USC’s Mark Sanchez a few picks later.
Although it appears Stafford and Sanchez are likely to earn the opening day starting nod, oddsmakers and handicappers caution against anticipating the type of turnarounds Ryan and Flacco engineered for their teams.
“You know, I’ve always been sort of a bet-against guy when it comes to rookie quarterbacks,” said Nick Bogdanovich, oddsmaker and sportsbook director for the Reno-based Club Cal Neva.
“Guys like Ryan and Flacco appear to be more the exception than the rule. I expect Sanchez and Stafford to struggle mightily.”
Most rookie quarterbacks thrust into starting roles do just that.
Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts went 3-13 during his rookie year in 1998, throwing 28 interceptions against 26 touchdowns. Nearly a decade earlier, Troy Aikman of the Dallas Cowboys went 0-11 starting for a Dallas Cowboys club that finished 1-15.
Of course, both went on to win Super Bowls for their franchises.
The reasons for Bogdanovich’s apprehensions regarding Stafford and Sanchez include the unrealistic expectations to change the fortunes of their moribund clubs, as well as the lack of adequate supporting casts.
“Stafford is just going to be thrown to the wolves,” he said. “You might think Sanchez would have a little easier time of it, because they have a pretty solid running game and defense. But there’s so much pressure on him in New York, that it negates those factors.”
The oddsmaker said he did not anticipate changing either the future odds or the point spreads based on who is named the starter for the Jets or Lions. Specifically, the non-stop hype surrounding Sanchez in New York hasn’t changed his opinion of the Jets.
“I think he has zero effect on the odds for season wins, futures, conference championship or the Super Bowl,” Bogdanovich said. “Quarterback is a weakness for the Jets. No matter who wins the starting competition, it is a weak position for them.”
The relative lack of college experience also factors into the equation for handicappers. Stafford and Sanchez each declared early for the NFL draft, and Sanchez started just 16 games for USC before heading to the pros.
“I don’t think these guys are going to be anywhere near what you saw last year,” said Las Vegas-based handicapper Keith Glantz, who is also a former oddsmaker. “A guy like Sanchez is very talented, but it’s going to take him a couple of years to adjust. I like to see a kid stay through his senior year.”
Even so, Glantz welcomes the hype surrounding Sanchez. He said he would gladly fade the Jets if there is enough public action to warrant value on the other side.
“I’d love to see him have a real good pre-season and then the public jumps all over him,” Glantz said. “Then I can play against him … that would be fantastic.”
One notable exception to underclassmen quarterbacks is Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, who took over for injured veteran Tommy Maddox after two games in 2004. He led the Steelers to a 15-1 record and the AFC championship game and has since won two Super Bowls.
Terrell Owens to miss Bills' next game with toe injury
Terrell Owens’ traveling side show is facing a new reality. The Buffalo Bills wide receiver will miss Saturday’s exhibition game against the Green Bay Packers and will not practice until next week, several media outlets reported Wednesday.
The Packers are 3-point favorites at Beted.com. A few sports books are listing Green Bay as a 3.5-point chalk, though it’s unclear if the status of Owens prompted a change in the line.
Bills coach Dick Jauron ruled Owens out of playing this week after the receiver missed his second straight practice Wednesday.
Except for a brief 20-minute workout during practice Monday, Owens has been out since jamming his foot in a 21-18 loss to Tennessee in the Hall of Fame game August 9. He had two catches for 27 yards in Buffalo’s first series of that game.
CINCINNATI (0 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 8/20/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 8/20/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Nfl 8/20
Reply With Quote