New kids on the block: Impact college transfers
By NICK PARSONS
If Jevan Snead had stayed at Texas he would only be known as Colt McCoy's backup. Instead he's entering his second year as the starter for one of the biggest surprise teams in the nation.
Prior to Snead's arrival in Oxford, the Ole Miss Rebels had three consecutive seasons of eight losses or more. Last year they went 9-4, won the Cotton Bowl over Texas Tech and were the only team in the country to defeat the Florida Gators.
When blue chip recruits transfer to smaller programs they can help bettors identify value teams. Schools that do not have the pull power of Texas or Florida not only end up with unexpected talent, but they get players looking for redemption and something to prove. Kind of like when Emilio Estevez's team landed Adam Banks in the first Mighty Ducks movie.
Here's a quick look at some impact transfers looking for redemption in 2009
Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas
Mallett's height (6-foot-7) and his experience running a pro style offense in high school made him Lloyd Carr's pick to be the next great Michigan quarterback. But all that changed when Rich Rodriquez and the spread option came to Ann Arbor.
Mallett transferred to Arkansas and sat out last year learning Bobby Petrino's offense. The year off seems to have helped. Mallett threw for over 300 yards and 5 TDs in a recent scrimmage.
The schedule will be tough with road games at Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss and LSU, but look for this former parade All-American to play a big part in turning around a team that went 5-7 last year.
Josh Jarboe, WR Troy
Much was expected from Josh Jarboe when he signed with Oklahoma. I'm assuming that youtube videos about shooting people and an actual weapons charge were not part of those expectations. Both of which led to his dismissal.
Troy has always presented great value for bettors. The schoool holds a 22-13 against the spread record (ATS) in the last three years, but in that period it has never had a blue chip wide receiver.
Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
Like Jarboe, there were high expectation when Phil Taylor signed with Penn State. For the most part he lived up to those expectations playing a key role in a unit that ranked seventh in rushing defense in 2007. Taylor did not release a rap video on youtube but he was given the the boot after an on-campus fight.
He's now part of Baylor's football program and the 6-foot-4, 350 pound DT is expected to have an immediate impact. The Bears were 4-8 last year but they were 8-3 ATS. They also lost by just a touchdown on the road against No. 7 Texas Tech to close out the season.
DeVoe Torrence, RB Akron
When Ohio State was recruiting Devoe Torrence discussion revolved around whether he would play RB or LB. But soon this topic, like his scholarship, disappeared when rumors surfaced about DeVoe being part of a huge sex ring that involved minors. Torrence was later cleared of all charges but Ohio State wanted no part of him.
Regardless of what actually happened, Akron who has had three straight losing seasons, now has a big-time recruit at running back.
Other impact transfers to look at:
Zach Frazer, QB Uconn - Pushed out by Clausen at Notre Dame, Frazer will have a chance to shine in Storrs
Jarred Fayson, WR Illinois - Ex Florida Gator should help take pressure off All-American WR Arrelious Benn.
Brandon Jackson, RB East Carolina - Originally at Kentucky, apparent attitude problem, but has NFL talent
James Montgomery, RB Washington State - Ex Cal Bear won't win the Cougars a Pac-10 title, but he'll help keep games a bit closer
Antwine Perez, FS Maryland - Five-star recruit, but had to compete with future All-American Taylor Mays at USC
Jamere Holland, WR Oregon - Top five wideout in high school, but just another victim of USC's depth
Justin Burke, QB Louisville - Four-star QB, originally at NC State, looks to bring Cardinals back to the top of the Big East
Nick Fanuzzi, QB Rice - Still competing for the job, but the ex-Crimson Tide player has the strongest arm on the team
DajLeon Farr, TE Memphis - Ex Miami Hurricane was one of the best tight ends out of high school.
The Wiz Of Odds: Speed kills. It also lies
By JAY CHRISTENSEN
This much we know. Usain Bolt is a fast runner and the Ohio State Buckeyes are fast talkers.
Anybody who watched Bolt blaze 100 meters in a world-record 9.58 seconds in Berlin this past weekend has to wonder how fast the Jamaican sprinter can go. His performance was mind-boggling.
Bolt may be the stuff of legends, but his success may be perpetuating the stuff of myths.
Consider this: In Columbus, Ohio, Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor reportedly ran a 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds. Pryor’s stunning time wasn’t the result of some eager Ohio State staffer with a quick stopwatch thumb. His dash was apparently timed electronically, which produces a more reliable number.
Buckeyes players didn’t hesitate when asked to confirm the time, and even coach Jim Tressel contributed to the hype that followed the report.
“Let’s say it’s only 4.38 instead of 4.33,” Tressel told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. “It’s fast. . . . I assumed he’d be better than 4.5, but I’m not sure I was sitting there thinking he’d be 4.33.”
But come on, Tressel’s nose is growing faster than Pinocchio’s.
His comments only feed the myth that speed is better than power, and that often impacts the betting line. Consider that even with Pryor, Ohio State was a pedestrian 6-6 against the spread in 2008.
Bettors should put Pryor’s “time” in perspective.
In 1988, Ben Johnson set the world record in the 100 meters at the Seoul Olympics, clocking 9.79. According to a 2005 story in the San Diego Union-Tribune, timing officials broke the race into increments and determined that Johnson cruised through 40 yards in 4.38 seconds.
Johnson not only had the benefit of a slight tailwind that day, he was using the anabolic steroid Stanozolol.
If Pryor is really as fast as people in Columbus claim, perhaps he should quit football and challenge Bolt for the title of World’s Fastest Man.
The point is that college football players and teams are never as fast as advertised. Each team has some fast players. They also have big ones who can push you around. And it’s often just as easy to run over an opponent as it is around them.
There is no truer test of speed vs. power than the Southeastern Conference vs. the Big Ten. Teams from each league meet annually in the Capital One and Outback bowl games.
In the last seven Capital One Bowls, the Big Ten has a 4-3 ATS edge. It’s even more pronounced in the Outback, where the Big Ten is 5-2 ATS. That’s Big Ten Power 9, SEC Speed 5.
Still, coaches, players, broadcasters and fans can’t stop talking about the so-called need for speed. It’s a difference-maker, they say, and the reason teams from the South have ruled college football in recent years.
Jonathan Chait, who wrote about the Southern speed myth in 2002 for Slate, looked at the 10 fastest 100-meter times posted by high school runners for two years in Michigan and Florida.
The Florida kids averaged 10.77 seconds, the Michigan kids 10.78. Two of the Michigan kids went on to play in the Big Ten.
Chait looked at data comparing times at the NFL scouting combine of wide receivers from Northern teams against their Southern counterparts. The Northerners, on average, ran the 40 in 4.502, and the Southerners in 4.548.
But speed somehow always gets credit. In 1992, Nebraska made a concerted effort to recruit faster players after a series of embarrassing bowl losses.
Chait writes: “Fans and reporters breathlessly reported the 40-yard dash times of the Nebraska defense, and when Nebraska rolled off convincing bowl victories over Miami, Florida and Tennessee, held up the program as an example of how a Northern team learned to emulate the Southern style.
“In other words, if a Southern team beats Nebraska, it’s because Nebraska couldn’t match its Southern speed. If Nebraska beats a Florida team, it’s because it imitated the Southern methodology. Either way, the Southern-speed view of college football is vindicated.”
The speed myth often starts early in a player’s career. In 2004, Glen Coffee was preparing for his senior season at Ft. Walton Beach High in Florida. He attended a Nike camp and was timed in 4.44 in the 40, which helped him secure a scholarship from Alabama.
At the 2009 NFL scouting combine, Coffee had apparently lost a step. He ran a 4.58. So what happened? Coffee’s effort at the Nike camp was, of course, hand timed by some recruiting hack. His combine run was electronically timed.
As Chris Hutson, who operates the site Heisman Pundit, stated earlier this year, players don’t necessarily get faster in college, but they do get bigger.
“Strength coaches are always going to claim that guys will get faster as they go through their programs. That’s how they justify their employment,” Huston wrote.
“But in the end, it’s just basic physics. Players grow naturally to a point before their size and speed hit a plateau, then growth must be manufactured. In college, they put on extra muscle or bad weight and tend to get slower, not faster.”
So size does matter?
Of course it didn’t matter in Jack and the Beanstalk, but we all recognize that was a myth.
Tennessee top football recruit's eligibility in question
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Lane Kiffin acknowledged Wednesday that highly touted running back Bryce Brown is being investigated for a recruiting violation that may make him ineligible.
“The NCAA continues to investigate (Brown) and his whole history going back to when he was young, and I know that bothers him,” Kiffin told ESPN. “It’s pretty unfortunate.”
The investigation is centered around Brown’s relationship with adviser Brian Butler, and whether Brown received payment for unofficial recruiting visits during his high school career.
Tennessee, which went 5-7 overall and against the spread last season, opened as a 30-point favorite for its opener against Western Kentucky September 5.
The Volunteers are priced at +6000 to win the national championship.
When Miami, Va. Tech and Boston College came into the ACC in 2004, many felt the conference was poised to become one of the toughest football leagues in the nation. After all, FSU and Miami had been considered two of the nation’s top five programs since the early-to-mid 1980s.
At the time those three teams came into the ACC, programs like Maryland, Wake Forest and N.C. St. were on the rise, while Clemson was still a force to be reckoned with. However, the decline of Miami and FSU, coupled with the lack of a breakthrough season from the Tigers during Tommy Bowden’s tenure, has left the league nowhere near as formidable as power conferences like the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac 10 in recent seasons.
In fact, the ACC was 0-8 in BCS bowl games since 1999 until Va. Tech knocked off Cincinnati in last year’s Orange Bowl. Despite that victory, most look at the ACC as a middle-of-the-pack conference that hasn’t had a true national-title contender since FSU in 2000 (Remember, Miami wasn’t an ACC squad when it was in the BCS title mix through 2003).
Looking to 2009, Virginia Tech is the plus-225 favorite at Sportsbook.com (risk $100 to win $225). The Hokies have a season win total of nine ‘over’ (minus-145). They open the year at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta against Alabama. Most books have installed the Crimson Tide as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 37 ½.
After splitting time under center with Sean Glennon in 2007 and 2008, junior Tyrod Taylor now becomes the starting quarterback exclusively. Will that be a good or bad thing for Frank Beamer’s program?
There’s no doubt that Taylor is dynamic with his legs, as evidenced by his seven rushing touchdowns and 5.0 yards-per-carry average in ’08. On the flip side, his throwing accuracy is a major question mark, hence his 2/7 touchdown-interception ratio last season.
Following a sensational freshman campaign, sophomore RB Darren Evans was going to be the focal point of the Hokies’ offense in ’09. But an ACL tear last week will cause Evans to miss the entire season. His impact was clear when most betting shops adjusted ‘Bama from five or 5 ½ to 6 ½ when the news broke.
Va. Tech will have plenty of competition in the Coastal Division, starting with Paul Johnson’s Ga. Tech squad. In his first year in Atlanta, Johnson brought his flexbone offense to town and guided the Yellow Jackets to a 9-4 record, including a come-from-behind upset win at Georgia to end a seven-year losing streak to their bitter in-state adversaries.
Ga. Tech has the third-shortest odds to win the conference (+500) and a season win total of eight. However, bettors have to lay a $1.50 price in order to back GT’s ‘over,’ while ‘under’ wagers could net a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
The Jackets returns 10 starters on offense and eight starters on defense. Most notably, darkhorse Heisman candidate Jonathan Dwyer is back. The junior RB averaged 7.0 YPC in ’08, rushing for 1,395 yards and 12 TDs.
Junior QB Josh Nesbitt only threw a pair of TD passes last year, but he rushed for seven TDs and averaged 4.0 YPC. Roddy Jones, the team’s A-back, averaged an eye-opening 8.5 YPC.
The Yellow Jackets’ defense lost DE Michael Johnson, who had nine sacks in ’08 and went in the third round of the NFL Draft to the Bengals. But the top five tacklers return and this unit should be improved.
I’m real bullish on Johnson’s second team on The Flats, as a 10-2 record looks like a distinct possibility. As for VI’s Kevin Rogers, he feels the plus-500 payout makes GT the play to win the ACC.
“I’ll take Ga. Tech in a swing-for-the-fences pick to win the league,” said Rogers. “The Yellow Jackets ran all over their ACC counterparts last season, finishing as one of the top rushing teams in the nation. The Ramblin’ Wreck has a tough stretch in October with four road games in five weeks, but two of those games are against SEC cellar dwellers (Vandy and Mississippi St.). This conference has plenty of parody since its expansion and I think this is the year for Ga. Tech to win it.”
North Carolina is another legit contender in the ACC Coastal. The Tar Heels have plus-600 odds to win the title game in Jacksonville. They have a season win total of eight ‘under’ (minus-125).
During his second season in Chapel Hill, Butch Davis led UNC to an 8-4 regular-season ledger before losing a thrilling Meineke Car Care Bowl to West Virginia by a 31-30 count. UNC brings back 15 total starters (6 offense, 9 defense) from that squad, including junior QB T.J. Yates.
Yates was in the midst of an outstanding year before a broken ankle sidelined him for a month. Nevertheless, he completed 60 percent of his throws with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio in six starts.
In ’09, Yates will be looking for new targets, as the Tar Heels lost their three best receivers, including first-round pick Hakeem Nicks, who had 12 TD receptions and averaged 18.0 yards per catch. Defensively, UNC is loaded with perhaps the ACC’s top secondary. Also, the Heels have one of the country’s best linebackers in Quan Sturdivant, who had a team-high 122 tackles.
Like UNC, Miami has plus-600 odds to win the ACC (risk $100 to win $600). The Hurricanes are sporting a win total of 7 ½ flat (minus-115 either way). They play at FSU in the opener with most spots listing the Seminoles as 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’
Randy Shannon is an abysmal 12-13 straight up in his first two seasons as the head coach at this storied program. Is he on the hot seat going into 2009? I would certainly think so. And that seat could be boiling by the time Oklahoma leaves South Florida in early October.
That’s because a 0-4 start for the ‘Canes isn’t out of question by any means. They open at FSU and then host Ga. Tech after an open date. Next up, UM travels to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies before hosting the Sooners.
With Robert Marve leaving the program, Jacory Harris is now the starter at QB. He showed plenty of promise as a true frosh, posting a 12/7 TD-INT ratio. Behind Harris, the ‘Canes have a pair of solid RBs in Graig Cooper and Javarris James.
Virginia and Duke round out the Coastal side of the loop with both teams sporting 50/1 odds to win the ACC. UVA head coach Al Groh is on the hot seat and hoping to lead the Cavs back to a bowl game after missing the postseason in two of the last three years.
Jameel Sewell was suspended in 2008 but is now back as the starting QB for ’09. Unfortunately for the Wahoos, that just about covers the good news. UVA’s top five receivers are gone and so are the top four tacklers on the defensive side of the ball.
Duke made serious strides during David Cutcliffe’s first year as the head coach. For the first time since 2003, the Blue Devils won four games. More importantly for our purposes, they compiled a 6-5 spread record.
Senior QB Thaddeus Lewis is one of the conference’s best at the position. As a junior in ’08, he connected on 62 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions.
With a soft non-conference slate, Duke should win three of its first four games. After Vandy ended its bowl-less slide last season, could the Blue Devils be poised to pull a similar trick? Home games against Maryland and Wake Forest are winnable, as is a road game at Virginia. So yes, a 6-6 campaign isn’t out of the question, but we need to see it before believing it.
Florida St. is the favorite in the ACC Atlantic with plus-350 odds to win the conference. The Seminoles have a win total of seven ‘over’ (minus-150).
Mickey Andrews, FSU’s long-time defensive coordinator, has just five starters back. This unit lost its three premier tacklers, not to mention sack-happy DE Everette Brown.
There are eight starters back on offense, including junior QB Christian Ponder. This is the position that’s haunted FSU since Chris Weinke left the program eight years ago. There were four years of mediocrity under Chris Rix’s leadership and the Drew Weatherford Era was also forgetful.
Like Rix, Ponder shows flashes of brilliance but too often becomes unglued and turnover-happy. He had just a 14/13 TD-INT ratio in 2008. Making matters worse, Ponder loses his two favorite targets as Greg Carr and Preston Parker aren’t in the mix anymore.
But VI’s Chris David is picking ‘Noles to win the ACC for the first time since 2005. “If Bobby Bowden’s offense ever finds a pulse, the defense alone will be able to help them win the ACC Atlantic. The make-or-break games for FSU come in November when it plays back-to-back road games at Clemson and Wake Forest. If they pull the sweep, then FSU will be playing in the conference championship.”
There doesn’t appear to be much separation between the other five teams in the division. Clemson has plus-700 odds to win the ACC, while N.C. St. (12/1), Boston College (15/1) and Wake Forest (18/1) appear to be more stout than Maryland (50/1).
The Tigers still haven’t made the ACC Championship Game since its inception. They have a new coach in Dabo Swinney, whose hire seemed to be a reach according to this space, especially with proven winners like Tommy Tuberville and Phil Fulmer available.
James Davis, the school’s second all-time leading rusher, is gone along with QB Cullen Harper. But those departures pave the way for talented players to get more involved. C.J. Spiller will finally get the bulk of the work and that could be a good thing thanks to his take-it-to-the-house potential on any given touch.
The QB snaps will now go to Willy Korn and/or Tajh Boyd, both of whom were considered among the best at the prep level when coming out of high school. Korn is a third-year sophomore, while Boyd is a true freshman. Clemson’s defense should be strong with eight starters coming back.
Tom O’Brien enters his third season in Raleigh looking to take the Wolfpack to a second straight bowl game. He has his QB of the present and future in sophomore Russell Wilson, who produced an incredible 17/1 TD-INT ratio in ’08. Wilson has his two favorite receivers returning in Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams.
The defense will be without its best player for at least the first four games of the season. LB Nate Irving suffered a broken leg in a car accident earlier this summer and probably won’t play until October.
The Wolfpack open the season at home with a Thursday game against South Carolina. Most books are listing N.C. St. as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’ The Gamecocks destroyed the Wolfpack 34-0 in Columbia in last season’s lid-lifter, so the home team will be looking for big-time payback.
In this wide-open division, gamblers certainly shouldn’t sleep on Wake Forest, which has one of the best coaching staffs in America led by Jim Grobe. The Demon Deacons return nine starters on offense, including four-year starter Riley Skinner at QB.
However, the Deacs only have four starters back on defense. They lost first-round pick Aaron Curry, who was a dynamic LB that garnered All-American honors. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Wake as a 4 ½-point home favorite for its opener against Baylor, but that number has been adjusted to just one. The Bears will be seeking revenge after the Deacs went into Waco and dealt out a 41-13 shellacking in last year’s opener.
I think Boston College is an extremely tough team to get a read on. The Eagles are dealing with the exit of Jeff Jagodzinski, who was rightfully pink slipped for flirting with a few NFL job openings.
BC has seven starters back on offense and six on defense in the first year of Frank Spaziani’s tenure. Dominique Davis is poised to take over at QB after performing decently at times (6/4 TD-INT) during his freshman campaign. The bad news is that BC’s All-American LB Mark Herzlich will most likely miss the entire year as he battles cancer.
Finally, Maryland rounds out the ACC with minimal expectations. The Terrapins open the year at Cal as 21-point underdogs. Bettors should potentially consider Ralph Friedgen’s bunch in this spot. After all, the Terps have won outright in four double-digit ‘dog spots since 2006.
In ’06, Maryland won 13-12 at Clemson as a 19 ½-point road underdog. Also in ’06, the Terps took the cash as 14-point ‘dogs in a 27-23 defeat at Ga. Tech. In ’07, Maryland thumped Rutgers 34-24 as an 18 ½-point puppy. Then last season, the Terps beat Cal 35-27 as 14-point home ‘dogs and also won outright at Clemson as 11-point road ‘dogs (20-17).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--GT’s Dwyer has 12/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy at Sportsbook.com.
--Clemson’s Spiller is a 20/1 longshot to win the Heisman.
--GT back-up QB Jaybo Shaw suffered a broken collarbone last week and is expected to be out until mid-October.
--GT will play three SEC foes – at Mississippi St. (10/3), at Vandy (10/31) and vs. UGA (11/28). In a game that will go a long way towards deciding the ACC Coastal, the Jackets will host Va. Tech on Oct. 17.
--When FSU goes to Winston Salem on Nov. 14, it will be looking to end a three-game losing streak to the Demon Deacons. The ‘Noles have scored just 24 total points in their three consecutive losses to Wake Forest.
College Football 8/20
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