[G-men]

INSIDE THE LINES

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 19


NATIONAL LEAGUE


St. Louis (68-53) at L.A. Dodgers (71-49)


The Dodgers look to make it two in a row when they send Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.91 ERA) to the mound in the rubber match of a three-game series against the Cardinals and red-hot Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62).


Los Angeles followed up Monday’s 3-2 defeat to St. Louis with a 7-3 pounding last night, ending their four-game home losing streak and the Cardinals’ five-game overall win streak. The Dodgers are 61-27 in their last 80 games as a home favorite, but most recently, they’re still mired in slumps of 4-7 overall, 3-6 against the N.L. Central and 3-6 versus right-handed starters.


Even with Tuesday’s loss, St. Louis is still 9-2 in its last 11 overall and is on additional upticks of 4-1 on the road, 8-2 against the N.L. West (4-1 last five) and 8-1 against left-handed starters. However, the Cardinals have now dropped eight of their last 11 as an underdog.


St. Louis continues to own this rivalry, having won 38 of the last 56 meetings overall, including nine of the last 13 in Los Angeles. This year, the Cards are 4-2 against L.A.


Wainwright pitched eight scoreless innings in Friday’s 9-2 home rout of the Padres, and he’s not only delivered 10 consecutive quality starts, he’s held all 10 of those opponents to two earned runs or fewer. Since the start of July, the right-hander is 6-2 with a 1.21 ERA in nine outings, including 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA in four road starts. For the season, he’s 9-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 11 starts as a visitor.


With Wainwright pitching, the Cardinals are on a slew of lengthy hot streaks, including 38-16 overall, 25-10 on the road, 18-5 as an underdog, 9-0 as a road underdog, 24-3 versus winning teams and 6-0 on Wednesday. Against the Dodgers, he’s 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA in seven games (four starts), including a 10-0 home win on July 28.


Kershaw is coming off Friday’s 4-1 loss at Arizona as he allowed all four runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have lost five straight games behind Kershaw after going 7-0 in his previous seven starts. However, L.A. is 12-5 in Kershaw’s last 17 as a home favorite and 7-3 in his last 10 against the N.L. Central.


Despite a 1.86 ERA, Kershaw is just 3-3 in 13 home starts, with the Dodgers going 7-6. Kershaw dominated St. Louis back on July 29, pitching eight scoreless innings at Busch Stadium, and he left with a 1-0 lead but Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton blew the save and L.A. eventually lost 3-2 in 15 innings. In three career starts versus the Cardinals, Kershaw has allowed just three runs in 21 innings (1.29 ERA).


For the Cardinals, the “over” is on runs of 7-3-3 overall, 6-1-2 on the road, 4-0-1 against lefty starters, 10-3-2 in Wainwright’s last 15 road outings and 7-1-1 in his last nine as an underdog. However, the under is 5-0-1 in St. Louis’ last six Wednesday contests, 9-5 in its last 14 against the N.L. West and 7-2-1 in Wainwright’s last 10 starts overall.


The over is 10-4-1 in L.A.’s last 15 home games, but otherwise the team is on “under” surges of 4-1-1 on Wednesday and 6-2 when Kershaw is favored. Finally, the under is 8-4 in the last 12 overall meetings in this rivalry, including 4-1 at Dodger Stadium.


ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE




AMERICAN LEAGUE


Boston (67-51) at Toronto (55-62)


The Blue Jays try to halt a three-game losing skid when they send ace Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) to the hill opposite the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz (1-3, 4.45) as these rivals resume their three-game series continues at the Rogers Centre.


Boston overcame one of Josh Beckett’s worst performances of the season and outlasted the Blue Jays 10-9 in Tuesday’s series opener. However, the Sox are still just 5-9 in their last 14 games overall, including 2-8 on the road, and they’re on further slides of 1-10 as an underdog (0-9 as a road pup) and 1-6 against the A.L. East.


Toronto has lost two in row, four of five and 10 of 16 overall, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. The Blue Jays are in additional slumps of 6-13 as a favorite, 1-5 against the A.L. East and 1-4 on Wednesday.


Boston holds a slim 6-4 edge in the season series with Toronto, but the home team is still 7-3. Prior to Tuesday, the losing team had scored three runs or fewer in the first nine meetings between these squads.


Buchholz is coming off his first two quality starts in more than a year, giving up a total of four runs (three earned) in 13 innings against the Yankees (road) and Tigers (home). However, he got zero offensive support, losing 5-0 to New York star CC Sabathia and 2-0 to Detroit ace Justin Verlander. The Red Sox are now 5-17 in Buchholz’s last 22 starts overall, 3-12 in his last 15 on the road, 1-5 in his last six on Wednesday and 3-8 in his last 11 versus the A.L. East.


Buchholz beat the Blue Jays 4-1 in Toronto in his first big-league start of the season July 17, allowing the single run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings as he improved to 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA in four career games (three starts) against the Jays.. However, he’s just 1-2 with a 5.95 ERA in four road starts in 2009.


Halladay is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last two starts, pitching eight innings each against the Orioles (7-3 home win) and Rays (5-2 road victory). The veteran right-hander has gone at least seven innings in eight straight starts and he’s 8-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 home efforts, including five complete games. Behind their former Cy Young winner, the Blue Jays are on positive runs of 56-19 at home, 48-22 against divisional rivals, 111-52 as a favorite and 7-2 in when he faces the Red Sox in Canada.


Halladay has been mediocre versus the Red Sox in his career, going 13-12 with a 4.33 ERA in 38 lifetime appearances (35 starts). However, that includes a complete-game 3-1 home win on July 19, with Halladay scattering six hits while striking out seven. He has a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts versus Boston going back to last April.


Despite last night’s shootout, the Blue Jays are on “under” runs of 12-6-3 at home, 14-7-1 against the A.L. East and 6-1 against right-handed starters. Also, with Halladay pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0-1 against winning teams and 4-1 versus Boston. Similarly, the Red Sox carry “under” trends of 5-2 on the road, 10-5-1 against A.L. East competition, 20-7-2 as an underdog and 16-5 as a road pup.


Finally, the under is still 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall in this rivalry, all in Toronto


ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER

[G-men]

Hot lines: Wednesday's best MLB bets


Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers

The Tigers added some insurance to their slim two-game lead over the American League Central by adding slugger Aubrey Huff to the lineup in a deal with the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday.

Huff, who is hitting .253 with 13 home runs this season, will settle into the designated hitter spot in Detroit’s lineup. The veteran infielder should give the Tigers offense some extra pop heading into the final month of the season and playoffs. Detroit currently ranks 16th in the majors in average runs (4.62) and 22nd in batting average (.258).

"He adds another lefthanded bat to our ballclub and is a middle-of-the-lineup type hitter," Tigers president and general manager Dave Dombrowski told reporters. "We've worked on trying to get a bat for a while."

The Tigers have played under the total in three of their last four games as of Monday. But for the month, they have an over/under record of 11-5. Heading into Tuesday, Detroit and Seattle have also played over the posted total in 10 of their last 13 games in the Motor City, including going 2-1 over/under in April.

Pick: Over

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Mets third baseman David Wright joined fellow superstars Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado on the disabled list after taking a fastball to the head this past weekend.

Wright, who had never been on the 15-day DL in his six-year MLB career, suffered a concussion Saturday and isn’t sure when he’ll be cleared to play by team doctors.

Wright was one player keeping the injury-prone Mets afloat for most of the season. He was hitting a team-best .324 BA with eight home runs and 55 RBI along with solid play in the infield. Now, without the All-Star third baseman, New York’s lineup features bats like Fernando Tatis, Dan Murphy and Anderson Hernandez.

The futile offense was outscored 10-1 Monday by the San Francisco Giants, who are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors. In the four games against the Giants, the Mets scored just 11 runs and are hitting a combined .267 in August heading into Tuesday’s game with Atlanta. The Braves open this series with a 4-1 mark in their last five games against New York.

Pick: Atlanta

[G-men]

Wednesday’s streaking and slumping starting pitchers


Streaking

Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

If it weren’t for Tim Lincecum, Wainwright would be the frontrunner for this year’s National League Cy Young award.

The towering righty has gone 10 straight starts without surrendering more than two earned runs. He hasn’t walked a batter in his last three starts and he leads the NL with 14 wins.

Need more?

He’s pitched at least six innings in each of his last 23 starts. The Cards have also won seven of his last eight outings.

Cliff Lee (10-9, 2.86 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies

Halladay who?

This former Cleveland ace is loving life in the Senior Circuit. The Phillies have won each of Lee’s three starts and the southpaw owns a sparkling 1.13 ERA with his new club.

He’s pitching deep into games and is striking out batters by the handful. The under has cashed in seven of his last eight appearances and he still hasn’t been priced higher than -170.

Slumping

Jose Contreras (4-11, 5.40 ERA), Chicago White Sox

Is there any pitcher in baseball less deserving of a $10 million price tag?

The Cuban product hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning since July 24. He got dinged for six runs over 4 1-3 innings last time out and he hasn’t produced a quality start since the beginning of last month.

[G-men]

Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers


The middle of the week provides bettors with a handful of solid pitching matchups around baseball. Two of the top aces inside the National League meet up in Philadelphia, with a low-scoring game expected in the City of Brotherly Love.

Diamondbacks at Phillies (7:05 PM EST)

The Phillies made off like bandits by acquiring Cliff Lee (3-0, 1.12 ERA) from the Indians prior to the trade deadline. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has been fantastic in his first three starts with the Phils, allowing three earned runs in 24 innings of work. Lee consistently goes deep into games, tossing at least 109 pitches in six of his last seven starts, dating back to late June with Cleveland.

Dan Haren (12-7, 2.50 ERA) rebounded nicely after consecutive subpar starts by beating the Dodgers his last time out. Haren scattered six hits and one run in eight innings, as Arizona topped Los Angeles, 4-1. Haren came off a string of four straight outings which were non-quality starts prior to the Dodgers win. Arizona has performed better when Haren starts on the road as opposed to Chase Field. The D-Backs are 8-4 in Haren's away starts, while going just 7-5 at home.

Arizona has not fared well recently on the road against left-handed starters, winning just three of the last 16 in this spot.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Phillies as a $1.70 home favorite, with the total listed at 8 (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'under').

Red Sox at Blue Jays (7:07 PM EST)

The Red Sox are now looking up at the Rangers in the AL Wild Card race, after dropping two of three in Arlington over the weekend. Boston has now lost eight of its last nine on the road entering Tuesday's action in Toronto.

Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) is coming off solid back-to-back starts, beating the Orioles and Rays. Halladay finally beat Tampa Bay for the first time in four tries last Friday, 5-2. The Jays ace has pitched eight innings or more in five of his last six starts, despite Toronto going 3-3 in this span. Halladay shut down the Sox at Rogers Centre last month, 3-1, tossing a complete-game, six-hitter.

Clay Buchholz (1-3, 4.45 ERA) received no run support in his last two outings as he faced tough competition. The Sox righty lost to the Tigers and Yankees, but delivered quality starts each time. Boston, though, was shut out in each game. One of Buchholz's biggest problems is a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is right now 20-to-19. Buchholz was on the winning side of a 4-1 decision at Toronto on July 17, giving up four hits and one run in five innings of work.

The 'under' has hit in seven of nine meetings this season, while the home team is 7-2.

The Blue Jays are listed as a $1.60 home 'chalk,' while the total is set at 7 ½ (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'over'), according to LVSC.

Twins at Rangers (8:05 PM EST)

The Rangers look to extend their slim Wild Card advantage, hosting the reeling Twins. Minnesota continues to stumble, dropping 12 of 16, following a three-game sweep of the White Sox at the end of July. Oddly, in three of Minnesota's four victories in this stretch, the Twins have scored ten runs or more.

Texas sends out veteran righty Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.31 ERA) to the hill, going for his tenth victory. Millwood was set for win number ten last Friday against Boston, but the Red Sox shocked the Rangers with five runs in the ninth inning to beat Texas, 8-4. Millwood's home numbers are superb, compiling a 7-1 mark in Arlington, to go along with an ERA of 2.46. Millwood was touched up considerably against the Twins in two starts last season, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in 12.1 innings of work.

Scott Baker (10-7, 4.54 ERA) is coming off his best start of the season, a complete-game, two-hit gem against Cleveland. The Twins are 7-3 in Baker's last ten starts, including a 4-2 mark on the road. One of those away victories came at Texas last month, an eight-inning effort in a 4-1 win. Thanks to good run support lately, the Twins have hit the 'over' in four of Baker's last five starts.

The Rangers continue to be the best 'under' play in baseball, nailing it a league-high 73 times this season. Ameriquest Field used to be known as a band-box, but the 'under' has been drilled in 12 of Texas' last 17 home contests.

LVSC has listed the Rangers as a $1.30 home favorite, with the total set at 9.

[G-men]

Baseball cash cows: Hottest trends in the majors

Damn Yankees

Even with Sunday's 10-3 loss at Seattle, the New York Yankees have been worth the high price for the last month.

Sunday's loss as a -174 favorite ended a five-game winning streak for the Yankees, who have baseball's best straight-up record since the All-Star break.

The Yankees are 23-7 since the break with winning streaks of eight, seven and five games. They have been favored in all but three games and carried a price of at least 2-1 eight times.

On Monday, the Yankees are -184 at Oakland with A.J. Burnett on the mound. That is the highest price Burnett has had on the road since his first start of the season at Baltimore, where he was -196.

Under the radar

It's been a season-long trend, but the Texas Rangers continue to play under the total. Oddsmakers are lowering the number, but Texas has still played below the total in seven of its last eight contests.

The tendency is even more pronounced at the Ballpark in Arlington. The under is 26-7-1 in Texas home games since the beginning of June.

The Rangers host the Minnesota Twins on Monday with the total set at 9.5.

Working overtime

Sharp bettors weren’t shocked by the Marlins’ 10-run explosion yesterday against the Rockies’ Aaron Cook.

Florida has soared over the total in eight straight games and 11 of its last 12.

The club leads the majors in runs (86) and batting average (.317) in the month of August. Of course over bettors will also tell you that Florida’s 5.00 August ERA has helped produce winning tickets.

The Marlins don’t play again until Tuesday when they visit the Houston Astros.

[G-men]

American League Spoilers
By Joe Nelson


These teams have been huge disappointments this season but despite making some trades before the deadline these are teams that seem to be playing well right now. Down the stretch these teams will serve as tough opponents and even spoilers, and will likely sit in the underdog role more often than not. Backing these clubs could be beneficial in the coming weeks and there could be significant value in many situations. Although these teams are not playing for the playoffs, the influx of young players should bring strong efforts and they could be teams that play .500 or better the rest of the way despite being losing teams for the season.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have out-scored opponents by 40 runs this season yet are sitting five games below .500 and 16 games out of the division lead. Such is life in the AL East and Toronto will continue to be a decent team that ends up with a worse record than it deserves due to playing such a tough schedule. The Blue Jays are 32-21 against the rest of the AL but just 15-27 against the AL East which features three playoff contenders.

Statistically the Blue Jays have the resume of a team with a much stronger record. Toronto is 10th in baseball in runs scored per game and fifth in baseball in team batting average. Toronto lacks clear sluggers in the lineup but the Jays have hit 135 home runs this season, ranking 7th in all of baseball. With Toronto keeping ace Roy Halladay they have one of the few true #1 starters in baseball and rookie starter Ricky Romero has had a great year and should be a Rookie of the Year finalist. Toronto ranks 10th in baseball in ERA and 5th in quality starts. The bullpen has had some rough patches but overall has had decent results. Toronto also has committed the fewest errors in baseball, yet this is a losing team.

Aside from a three-game set with the Orioles in late September the Blue Jays will only play playoff contenders the rest of the season so they will play an intricate role in the playoff race. Aside from series with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays, the Blue Jays will play Seattle, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Texas, and Detroit, leaving a brutal finish to the season that will likely cause their record to fall even further. That said, Toronto still has a quality team and this will be a tough match-up for any of those contending squads.

Oakland Athletics

The A’s were a trendy pick to compete in the AL West this season as they signed several bigger-name, but past their prime batters in the off-season and were featuring young but promising pitching. The season has not gone as expected for the A’s as the pitching staff dealt with injuries and perhaps took a bit longer to develop than hoped at the big league level. The A’s lineup has struggled all season but finally rid of costly veterans like Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, young players are stepping up to produce.

Despite featuring one of the worst team batting averages in baseball, a number deflated by playing home games in a great pitcher’s park, the A’s have been in the middle of the pack for scoring runs. Oakland has scored 4.6 runs per game and in great contrast to A’s teams of the past this is one of the top base stealing teams in the AL. Oakland’s pitching has not been great but the young rotation is starting to gel as Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Vin Mazzaro have come a long ways since this spring. Dallas Braden recently hit the DL but he has had a fine season and veteran Justin Duchscherer should be back in action soon. Andrew Bailey has also emerged as a solid closer for the A’s making this a formidable pitching staff.

Since the All Star Break the A’s are 14-14 despite playing though arguably the toughest scheduling stretch of the season. Oakland faced consecutive series against the Angels, Twins, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rangers, and yet managed to compete. The A’s are in the midst of a long home stand that could provide some excellent underdog situations as they will be facing top teams and in September the schedule will soften a bit, and Oakland should be a team that finishes well and provides some momentum for the young team heading into next season.

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is actually on a 12-7 run and the offense has produced the numbers that many expected to see all season. Cleveland has scored over 5.7 runs per game in that span despite losing several key players in trades as Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko and Ben Francisco have all been dealt, not to mention pitchers Cliff Lee and Carl Pavano. The current Indians lineup still features several proven young hitters that were with the team for the playoff run two years ago and has now integrated some promising young talent. With the AL Central race still up in the air, Cleveland could be a spoiler team as they may benefit from addition by subtraction after underachieving most of the season.

The offense is scoring over five runs per game for the season ranking sixth in baseball, so pitching has been the key problem. Cleveland owns the worst team ERA in baseball, and quality starts have been very tough to come by particularly now without its two most reliable starters. No current Cleveland pitcher has topped 90 innings on the season and no pitcher has more than six wins. Still, there have been some promising results. Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey have both been up and down in the past few years with the Indians and both appear much more comfortable at this juncture, looking like legitimate big league pitchers and producing better results. Justin Masterson was acquired from Boston and he has been effective so far. Fausto Carmona has not recaptured his past form, but he has had a few encouraging results and still has tremendous potential on any given night.

18 of the last 25 games for Cleveland will be at home so they will have the opportunity to finish the season strong. Cleveland will play Minnesota nine times, Detroit six times, and Chicago three times before the season ends so they will play a pivotal role in deciding the division champion in a race that the current leading Tigers have not been able to pull away from. The Indians also will play two series each with Kansas City and Baltimore and the Orioles are the only remaining AL East team on the schedule so Cleveland’s record can partially be blamed on playing the best teams early in the year. Cleveland is 16 games below .500 but could actually climb significantly closer to the even water mark in the final weeks despite looking like a worse team on paper.